Economic value of recreational fishing in Moreton Bay and the potential impact of the marine park rezoning

In 2009, the area of the Moreton Bay Marine Park was increased from 0.5 per cent of the Bay area to 16 per cent. During the planning process, opposition by commercial and recreational fishers alike was raised, arguing that loss of fishing grounds would lead to substantial loss in economic benefits. The commercial sector was compensated through a buyback of fishing effort, but the recreational sector received no compensation. In this paper, we develop a travel cost model to estimate the potential economic impact on the recreational sector from the marine park rezoning. The results suggest that, counter to initial claims, non-market recreational fishing benefits may have increased by between $1.3m and $2.5m a year, with a current total annual value of around $20m. Keywords: Travel cost model; Economic valuation; Moreton Bay Marine Park; Recreational fishing

The dynamics and performance of the building and construction product system

During 1999 the Department of Industry, Science and Resources (ISR) published 4 research reports it had commissioned from the Australian Expert Group in Industry Studies (AEGIS), a research centre of the University of Western Sydney, Macarthur. ISR will shortly publish the fifth and final report in this series. The five reports were commissioned by the Department, as part of the Building and Construction Action Agenda process, to investigate the dynamics and performance of the sector, particularly in relation its innovative capacity. Professor Jane Marceau, PVCR at the University of Western Sydney and Director of AEGIS, led the research team. Dr Karen Manley was the researcher and joint author on three of the five reports. This paper outlines the approach and key findings of each of the five reports. The reports examined 5 key elements of the ‘building and construction product system’. The term ‘product system’ reflects the very broad range of industries and players we consider to contribute to the performance of the building and construction industries. The term ‘product system’ also highlights our focus on the systemic qualities of the building and construction industries. We were most interested in the inter-relationships between key segments and players and how these impacted on the innovation potential of the product system. The ‘building and construction product system’ is hereafter referred to as ‘the industry’ for ease of presentation. All the reports are based, at least in part, on an interviewing or survey research phase which involved gathering data from public and private sector players nationally. The first report ‘maps’ the industry to identify and describe its key elements and the inter-relationships between them. The second report focuses specifically on the linkages between public-sector research organisations and firms in the industry. The third report examines the conditions surrounding the emergence of new businesses in the industry. The fourth report examines how manufacturing businesses are responding to customer demands for ‘total solutions’ to their building and construction needs, by providing various services to clients. The fifth report investigates the capacity of the industry to encourage and undertake energy efficient building design and construction.

The voices of the exegesis

In a recent journal article, Luke Jaaniste and I identified an emergent model of exegesis. From a content analysis of submitted exegeses within a local archive, we identified an approach that is quite different from the traditional thesis, but is also distinct from previously identified forms of exegesis, which Milech and Schilo have described as a ‘context model’ (which assumes the voice of academic objectivity and provides an historical or theoretical context for the creative practice) and a ‘commentary’ model’ (which takes the form of a first person reflection on the challenges, insights and achievements of the practice). The model we identified combines these dichotomous forms and assumes a dual orientation–looking outwards to the established field of research, exemplars and theories, and inwards to the methodologies, processes and outcomes of the practice. We went on to argue that this ‘connective’ exegesis offers clear benefits to the researcher in connecting the practice to an established field while allowing the researcher to demonstrate how the methods have led to outcomes that advance the field in some way. And, while it helps the candidate to articulate objective claims for research innovation, it enables them to retain a voiced, personal relationship with their practice. However, it also poses considerable complexities and challenges in the writing. It requires a reconciliation of multi-perspectival subject positions: the disinterested perspective and academic objectivity of an observer/ethnographer/analyst/theorist at times and the invested perspective of the practitioner/ producer at others. The author must also contend with a range of writing styles, speech genres and voices: from the formal, polemical voice of the theorist to the personal, questioning and sometimes emotive voice of reflexivity. Moreover, the connective exegesis requires the researcher to synthesize various perspectives, subject positions, writing styles, and voices into a unified and coherent text. In this paper I consider strategies for writing a hybrid, connective exegesis. I first ground the discussion on polyvocality and alternate textual structures through reference to recent discussions in philosophy and critical theory, and point to examples of emergent approaches to texts and practices in related fields. I then return to the collection of archived exegeses to investigate the strategies that postgraduate candidates have adopted to resolve the problems that arise from a polyvocal, connective exegesis.

Ask : a health advocacy program for adolescents with an intellectual disability : a cluster randomised controlled trial

Background Adolescents with intellectual disability often have poor health and healthcare. This is partly as a consequence of poor communication and recall difficulties, and the possible loss of specialised paediatric services. Methods/Design A cluster randomised trial was conducted with adolescents with intellectual disability to investigate a health intervention package to enhance interactions among adolescents with intellectual disability, their parents/carers, and general practitioners (GPs). The trial took place in Queensland, Australia, between February 2007 and September 2010. The intervention package was designed to improve communication with health professionals and families’ organisation of health information, and to increase clinical activities beneficial to improved health outcomes. It consisted of the Comprehensive Health Assessment Program (CHAP), a one-off health check, and the Ask Health Diary, designed for on-going use. Participants were drawn from Special Education Schools and Special Education Units. The education component of the intervention was delivered as part of the school curriculum. Educators were surveyed at baseline and followed-up four months later. Carers were surveyed at baseline and after 26 months. Evidence of health promotion, disease prevention and case-finding activities were extracted from GPs clinical records. Qualitative interviews of educators occurred after completion of the educational component of the intervention and with adolescents and carers after the CHAP. Discussion Adolescents with intellectual disability have difficulty obtaining many health services and often find it difficult to become empowered to improve and protect their health. The health intervention package proposed may aid them by augmenting communication, improving documentation of health encounters, and improving access to, and quality of, GP care. Recruitment strategies to consider for future studies in this population include ensuring potential participants can identify themselves with the individuals used in promotional study material, making direct contact with their families at the start of the study, and closely monitoring the implementation of the educational intervention.

When Can Oral Health Education Begin? Relative effectiveness of three oral health education strategies starting pre-partum

Objective: To test the impact of oral health education provided to pregnant mothers on subsequent practices within the infant’s family. Research design: A quasi-experimental intervention trial comparing the effectiveness of ‘usual care’ to one, or both, of two oral health education resources: a ‘sample bag’ of information and oral health care products; and/or a nine-minute “Healthy Teeth for Life” video on postnatal oral health issues. Participants: Women attending the midwife clinic at approximately 30 weeks gestation were recruited (n=611) in a public hospital providing free maternity services. Results and Conclusions: Four months after the birth of their infant, relative to the usual care condition, each of the oral health education interventions had independent or combined positive impacts on mother’s knowledge of oral health practices. However young, single, health care card-holder or unemployed mothers were less likely to apply healthy behaviours or to improve knowledge of healthy choices, as a result of these interventions. The video intervention provided the strongest and most consistent positive impact on mothers’ general and infant oral health knowledge. While mothers indicated that the later stage of pregnancy was a good time to receive oral health education, many suggested that this should also be provided after birth at a time when teeth were a priority issue, such as when “baby teeth” start to erupt.

Beyond the accolades : a postcolonial critique of the foundations of the Ottawa Charter

Introduction: The Ottawa Charter is undeniably of pivotal importance in the history of ideas associated with the establishment of health promotion. There is much to applaud in a charter which responds to the need to take action on the social and economic determinants of health and which seeks to empower communities to be at the centre of this. Such accolades tend to position the Ottawa Charter as ‘beyond critique’; a taken-for-granted ‘given’ in the history of health promotion. In contrast, we argue it is imperative to critically reflect on its ‘manufacture’ and assess the possibility that certain voices have been privileged, and others marginalized. Methods: This paper re-examines the 1986 Ottawa Conference including its background papers from a postcolonial standpoint. We use critical discourse analysis as a tool to identify the enactment of power within the production of the Ottawa health promotion discourse. This exercise draws attention to both the power to ensure the dominant presence of privileged voices at the conference as well as the discursive strategies deployed to ‘naturalize’ the social order of inequality. Results: Our analysis shows that the discourse informing the development of the Ottawa Charter strongly reflected Western/colonizer centric worldviews, and actively silenced the possibility of countervailing Indigenous and developing country voices. Conclusion: The Ottawa Charter espouses principles of participation, empowerment and social justice. We question then whether the genesis of the Ottawa Charter lives up to its own principles of practice. We conclude that reflexive practice is crucial to health promotion, which ought to include a preparedness for health promotion to more critically acknowledge its own history.

Dengue or Kokobera? A case report from the top end of the Northern Territory

In early April 1998, the Centre for Disease Control in Darwin was notified of a possible case of dengue which appeared to have been acquired in the Northern Territory. Because dengue is not endemic to the Northern Territory, locally acquired infection has significant public health implications, particularly for vector identification and control to limit the spread of infection. Dengue IgM serology was positive on two occasions, but the illness was eventually presumptively identified as Kokobera infection. This case illustrates the complexity of interpreting flavivirus serology. Determining the cause of infection requires consideration of the clinical illness, the incubation period, the laboratory results and vector presence. Waiting for confirmation of results, before the institution of the public health measures necessary for a true case of dengue, was ultimately justified in this case. This is a valid approach in the Northern Territory, but may not be applicable to areas of Australia with established vectors for dengue. Commun Dis Intell 1998;22:105-107.

Characterisation of the subgenomic RNAs of an Australian isolate of barley yellow dwarf luteovirus

We have characterised the subgenomic RNAs of an Australian isolate of BYDV-PAV. Northern blot analyses of infected plants and protoplasts have shown that this isolate synthesises three subgenomic RNAs. Precise mapping of the transcription start sites of all three subgenomic RNAs and translational analyses of subgenomic RNA 2 and 3 have revealed a number of features. First, the transcription start site of subgenomic RNA 1 in this isolate differs markedly from the start site determined for an Illinois isolate of BYDV-PAV. Second, the start sites of subgenomic RNA 1 and 2 occur at a sequence that closely resembles the 5' end sequence of the genomic RNA (5'AGUGAAGA). Third, subgenomic RNA 2 appears to express ORF 6 of BYDV-PAV but the gene product is truncated due to the appearance of a new stop codon in the sequence. Last, subgenomic RNA 3, which is abundantly transcribed and encapsidated by the virus particle, appears to have no coding ability. We postulate that this novel subgenomic RNA has a regulatory function.

Overview of the 2015 ALTA shared task: Identifying French cognates in English text

This paper presents an overview of the 6th ALTA shared task that ran in 2015. The task was to identify in English texts all the potential cognates from the perspective of the French language. In other words, identify all the words in the English text that would acceptably translate into a similar word in French. We present the motivations for the task, the description of the data and the results of the 4 participating teams. We discuss the results against a baseline and prior work.

Analysis of the needs of the East Coast cluster regional natural resource management bodies in relation to planning for climate change adaptation

The Climate Change Adaptation for Natural Resource Management (NRM) in East Coast Australia Project aims to foster and support an effective “community of practice” for climate change adaptation within the East Coast Cluster NRM regions that will increase the capacity for adaptation to climate change through enhancements in knowledge and skills and through the establishment of long‐term collaborations. It is being delivered by six consortium research partners: * The University of Queensland (project lead) * Griffith University * University of the Sunshine Coast * CSIRO * New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage * Queensland Department of Science, IT, Innovation and the Arts (Queensland Herbarium). The project relates to the East Coast Cluster, comprising the six coastal NRM regions and regional bodies between Rockhampton and Sydney: * Fitzroy Basin Association (FBA) * Burnett‐Mary Regional Group (BMRG) * SEQ Catchments (SEQC) * Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority (CMA) (NRCMA) * Hunter‐Central Rivers CMA (HCRCMA) * Hawkesbury Nepean CMA (HNCMA). The aims of this report are to summarise the needs of the regional bodies in relation to NRM planning for climate change adaptation, and provide a basis for developing the detailed work plan for the research consortium. Two primary methods were used to identify the needs of the regional bodies: (1) document analysis of the existing NRM/ Catchment Action Plans (CAPs) and applications by the regional bodies for funding under Stream 1 of the Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change Fund, and; (2) a needs analysis workshop, held in May 2013 involving representatives from the research consortium partners and the regional bodies. The East Coast Cluster includes five of the ten largest significant urban areas in Australia, world heritage listed natural environments, significant agriculture, mining and extensive grazing. The three NSW CMAs have recently completed strategic level CAPs, with implementation plans to be finalised in 2014/2015. SEQC and FBA are beginning a review of their existing NRM Plans, to be completed in 2014 and 2015 respectively; while BMRG is aiming to produce a NRM and Climate Variability Action Strategy. The regional bodies will receive funding from the Australian Government through the Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change Fund (NRM Fund) to improve regional planning for climate change and help guide the location of carbon and biodiversity activities, including wildlife corridors. The bulk of the funding will be available for activities in 2013/2014, with smaller amounts available in subsequent years. Most regional bodies aim to have a large proportion of the planning work complete by the end of 2014. In addition, NSW CMAs are undergoing major structural change and will be incorporated into semi‐autonomous statutory Local Land Services bodies from 2014. Boundaries will align with local government boundaries and there will be significant change in staff and structures. The regional bodies in the cluster have a varying degree of climate knowledge. All plans recognise climate change as a key driver of change, but there are few specific actions or targets addressing climate change. Regional bodies also have varying capacity to analyse large volumes of spatial or modelling data. Due to the complex nature of natural resource management, all regional bodies work with key stakeholders (e.g. local government, industry groups, and community groups) to deliver NRM outcomes. Regional bodies therefore require project outputs that can be used directly in stakeholder engagement activities, and are likely to require some form of capacity building associated with each of the outputs to maximise uptake. Some of the immediate needs of the regional bodies are a summary of information or tools that are able to be used immediately; and a summary of the key outputs and milestone dates for the project, to facilitate alignment of planning activities with research outputs. A project framework is useful to show the linkages between research elements and the relevance of the research to the adaptive management cycle for NRM planning in which the regional bodies are engaged. A draft framework is proposed to stimulate and promote discussion on research elements and linkages; this will be refined during and following the development of the detailed project work plan. The regional bodies strongly emphasised the need to incorporate a shift to a systems based resilience approach to NRM planning, and that approach is included in the framework. The regional bodies identified that information on climate projections would be most useful at regional and subregional scale, to feed into scenario planning and impact analysis. Outputs should be ‘engagement ready’ and there is a need for capacity building to enable regional bodies to understand and use the projections in stakeholder engagement. There was interest in understanding the impacts of climate change projections on ecosystems (e.g. ecosystem shift), and the consequent impacts on the production of ecosystem services. It was emphasised that any modelling should be able to be used by the regional bodies with their stakeholders to allow for community input (i.e. no black box models). The online regrowth benefits tool was of great interest to the regional bodies, as spatial mapping of carbon farming opportunities would be relevant to their funding requirements. The NSW CMAs identified an interest in development of the tool for NSW vegetation types. Needs relating to socio‐economic information included understanding the socio‐economic determinants of carbon farming uptake and managing community expectations. A need was also identified to understand the vulnerability of industry groups as well as community to climate change impacts, and in particular understanding how changes in the flow of ecosystem services would interact with the vulnerability of these groups to impact on the linked ecologicalsocio‐economic system. Responses to disasters (particularly flooding and storm surge) and recovery responses were also identified as being of interest. An ecosystem services framework was highlighted as a useful approach to synthesising biophysical and socioeconomic information in the context of a systems based, resilience approach to NRM planning. A need was identified to develop processes to move towards such an approach to NRM planning from the current asset management approach. Examples of best practice in incorporating climate science into planning, using scenarios for stakeholder engagement in planning and processes for institutionalising learning were also identified as cross‐cutting needs. The over‐arching theme identified was the need for capacity building for the NRM bodies to best use the information available at any point in time. To this end a planners working group has been established to support the building of a network of informed and articulate NRM agents with knowledge of current climate science and capacity to use current tools to engage stakeholders in NRM planning for climate change adaptation. The planners working group would form the core group of the community of practice, with the broader group of stakeholders participating when activities aligned with their interests. In this way, it is anticipated that the Project will contribute to building capacity within the wider community to effectively plan for climate change adaptation.

Sustainability of a multimodal intervention to promote lifestyle factors associated with the prevention of cardiovascular disease in midlife Australian women : a 5-year follow-up

We evaluated sustainability of an intervention to reduce women’s cardiovascular risk factors, determined the influence of self-efficacy, and described women’s current health. We used a mixed method approach that utilized forced choice and open-ended questionnaire items about health status, habits, and self-efficacy. Sixty women, average age 61, returned questionnaires. Women in the original intervention group continued health behaviors intended to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) at a higher rate than the control group, supporting the feasibility of a targeted intervention built around women’s individual goals. The role of self-efficacy in behavior change is unclear. The original intervention group reported higher self-reported health.

Meniscal repair in the elite athlete : results of 45 repairs with a minimum 5-year follow-up

Background The preservation of meniscal tissue is important to protect joint surfaces. Purpose We have an aggressive approach to meniscal repair, including repairing tears other than those classically suited to repair. Here we present the medium- to long-term outcome of meniscal repair (inside-out) in elite athletes. Study Design Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Methods Forty-two elite athletes underwent 45 meniscal repairs. All repairs were performed using an arthroscopically assisted inside-out technique. Eighty-three percent of these athletes had ACL reconstruction at the same time. Patients returned a completed questionnaire (including Lysholm and International Knee Documentation Committee [IKDC] scores). Mean follow-up was 8.5 years. Failure was defined by patients developing symptoms of joint line pain and/or locking or swelling requiring repeat arthroscopy and partial meniscectomy. Results The average Lysholm and subjective IKDC scores were 89.6 and 85.4, respectively. Eighty-one percent of patients returned to their main sport and most to a similar level at a mean time of 10.4 months after repair, reflecting the high level of ACL reconstruction in this group. We identified 11 definite failures, 10 medial and 1 lateral meniscus, that required excision; this represents a 24% failure rate. We identified 1 further patient who had possible failed repairs, giving a worst-case failure rate of 26.7% at a mean of 42 months after surgery. However, 7 of these failures were associated with a further injury. Therefore, the atraumatic failure rate was 11%. Age and size and location of the tears were not associated with a higher failure rate. Medial meniscal repairs were significantly more likely to fail than lateral meniscal repairs, with a failure rate of 36.4% and 5.6%, respectively (P < .05). Conclusion Meniscal repair and healing are possible, and most elite athletes can return to their preinjury level of activity.

Policy analysis of disaster health management in China

Humankind has been dealing with all kinds of disasters since the dawn of time. The risk and impact of disasters producing mass casualties worldwide is increasing, due partly to global warming as well as to increased population growth, increased density and the aging population. China, as a country with a large population, vast territory, and complex climatic and geographical conditions, has been plagued by all kinds of disasters. Disaster health management has traditionally been a relatively arcane discipline within public health. However, SARS, Avian Influenza, and earthquakes and floods, along with the need to be better prepared for the Olympic Games in China has brought disasters, their management and their potential for large scale health consequences on populations to the attention of the public, the government and the international community alike. As a result significant improvements were made to the disaster management policy framework, as well as changes to systems and structures to incorporate an improved disaster management focus. This involved the upgrade of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) throughout China to monitor and better control the health consequences particularly of infectious disease outbreaks. However, as can be seen in the Southern China Snow Storm and Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008, there remains a lack of integrated disaster management and efficient medical rescue, which has been costly in terms of economics and health for China. In the context of a very large and complex country, there is a need to better understand whether these changes have resulted in effective management of the health impacts of such incidents. To date, the health consequences of disasters, particularly in China, have not been a major focus of study. The main aim of this study is to analyse and evaluate disaster health management policy in China and in particular, its ability to effectively manage the health consequences of disasters. Flood has been selected for this study as it is a common and significant disaster type in China and throughout the world. This information will then be used to guide conceptual understanding of the health consequences of floods. A secondary aim of the study is to compare disaster health management in China and Australia as these countries differ in their length of experience in having a formalised policy response. The final aim of the study is to determine the extent to which Walt and Gilson’s (1994) model of policy explains how disaster management policy in China was developed and implemented after SARS in 2003 to the present day. This study has utilised a case study methodology. A document analysis and literature search of Chinese and English sources was undertaken to analyse and produce a chronology of disaster health management policy in China. Additionally, three detailed case studies of flood health management in China were undertaken along with three case studies in Australia in order to examine the policy response and any health consequences stemming from the floods. A total of 30 key international disaster health management experts were surveyed to identify fundamental elements and principles of a successful policy framework for disaster health management. Key policy ingredients were identified from the literature, the case-studies and the survey of experts. Walt and Gilson (1994)’s policy model that focuses on the actors, content, context and process of policy was found to be a useful model for analysing disaster health management policy development and implementation in China. This thesis is divided into four parts. Part 1 is a brief overview of the issues and context to set the scene. Part 2 examines the conceptual and operational context including the international literature, government documents and the operational environment for disaster health management in China. Part 3 examines primary sources of information to inform the analysis. This involves two key studies: • A comparative analysis of the management of floods in China and Australia • A survey of international experts in the field of disaster management so as to inform the evaluation of the policy framework in existence in China and the criteria upon which the expression of that policy could be evaluated Part 4 describes the key outcomes of this research which include: • A conceptual framework for describing the health consequences of floods • A conceptual framework for disaster health management • An evaluation of the disaster health management policy and its implementation in China. The research outcomes clearly identified that the most significant improvements are to be derived from improvements in the generic management of disasters, rather than the health aspects alone. Thus, the key findings and recommendations tend to focus on generic issues. The key findings of this research include the following: • The health consequences of floods may be described in terms of time as ‘immediate’, ‘medium term’ and ‘long term’ and also in relation to causation as ‘direct’ and ‘indirect’ consequences of the flood. These two aspects form a matrix which in turn guides management responses. • Disaster health management in China requires a more comprehensive response throughout the cycle of prevention, preparedness, response and recovery but it also requires a more concentrated effort on policy implementation to ensure the translation of the policy framework into effective incident management. • The policy framework in China is largely of international standard with a sound legislative base. In addition the development of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention has provided the basis for a systematic approach to health consequence management. However, the key weaknesses in the current system include: o The lack of a key central structure to provide the infrastructure with vital support for policy development, implementation and evaluation. o The lack of well-prepared local response teams similar to local government based volunteer groups in Australia. • The system lacks structures to coordinate government action at the local level. The result of this is a poorly coordinated local response and lack of clarity regarding the point at which escalation of the response to higher levels of government is advisable. These result in higher levels of risk and negative health impacts. The key recommendations arising from this study are: 1. Disaster health management policy in China should be enhanced by incorporating disaster management considerations into policy development, and by requiring a disaster management risk analysis and disaster management impact statement for development proposals. 2. China should transform existing organizations to establish a central organisation similar to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in the USA or the Emergency Management Australia (EMA) in Australia. This organization would be responsible for leading nationwide preparedness through planning, standards development, education and incident evaluation and to provide operational support to the national and local government bodies in the event of a major incident. 3. China should review national and local plans to reflect consistency in planning, and to emphasize the advantages of the integrated planning process. 4. Enhance community resilience through community education and the development of a local volunteer organization. China should develop a national strategy which sets direction and standards in regard to education and training, and requires system testing through exercises. Other initiatives may include the development of a local volunteer capability with appropriate training to assist professional response agencies such as police and fire services in a major incident. An existing organisation such as the Communist Party may be an appropriate structure to provide this response in a cost effective manner. 5. Continue development of professional emergency services, particularly ambulance, to ensure an effective infrastructure is in place to support the emergency response in disasters. 6. Funding for disaster health management should be enhanced, not only from government, but also from other sources such as donations and insurance. It is necessary to provide a more transparent mechanism to ensure the funding is disseminated according to the needs of the people affected. 7. Emphasis should be placed on prevention and preparedness, especially on effective disaster warnings. 8. China should develop local disaster health management infrastructure utilising existing resources wherever possible. Strategies for enhancing local infrastructure could include the identification of local resources (including military resources) which could be made available to support disaster responses. It should develop operational procedures to access those resources. Implementation of these recommendations should better position China to reduce the significant health consequences experienced each year from major incidents such as floods and to provide an increased level of confidence to the community about the country’s capacity to manage such events.

Survival models of community tenure and length of hospital stay for the seriously mentally ill : a 10-year perspective

Objective: To examine the effects of personal and community characteristics, specifically race and rurality, on lengths of state psychiatric hospital and community stays using maximum likelihood survival analysis with a special emphasis on change over a ten year period of time. Data Sources: We used the administrative data of the Virginia Department of Mental Health, Mental Retardation, and Substance Abuse Services (DMHMRSAS) from 1982-1991 and the Area Resources File (ARF). Given these two sources, we constructed a history file for each individual who entered the state psychiatric system over the ten year period. Histories included demographic, treatment, and community characteristics. Study Design: We used a longitudinal, population-based design with maximum likelihood estimation of survival models. We presented a random effects model with unobserved heterogeneity that was independent of observed covariates. The key dependent variables were lengths of inpatient stay and subsequent length of community stay. Explanatory variables measured personal, diagnostic, and community characteristics, as well as controls for calendar time. Data Collection: This study used secondary, administrative, and health planning data. Principal Findings: African-American clients leave the community more quickly than whites. After controlling for other characteristics, however, race does not affect hospital length of stay. Rurality does not affect length of community stays once other personal and community characteristics are controlled for. However, people from rural areas have longer hospital stays even after controlling for personal and community characteristics. The effects of time are significantly smaller than expected. Diagnostic composition effects and a decrease in the rate of first inpatient admissions explain part of this reduced impact of time. We also find strong evidence for the existence of unobserved heterogeneity in both types of stays and adjust for this in our final models. Conclusions: Our results show that information on client characteristics available from inpatient stay records is useful in predicting not only the length of inpatient stay but also the length of the subsequent community stay. This information can be used to target increased discharge planning for those at risk of more rapid readmission to inpatient care. Correlation across observed and unobserved factors affecting length of stay has significant effects on the measurement of relationships between individual factors and lengths of stay. Thus, it is important to control for both observed and unobserved factors in estimation.