Hot Summers and Heart Failure: Seasonal Variations in Morbidity and Mortality in Australian Heart Failure Patients (1994-2005)

Background There are minimal reports of seasonal variations in chronic heart failure (CHF)-related morbidity and mortality beyond the northern hemisphere. Aims and methods We examined potential seasonal variations with respect to morbidity and all-cause mortality over more than a decade in a cohort of 2961 patients with CHF from a tertiary referral hospital in South Australia subject to mild winters and hot summers. Results Seasonal variation across all event-types was observed. CHF-related morbidity peaked in winter (July) and was lowest in summer (February): 70 (95% CI: 65 to 76) vs. 33 (95% CI: 30 to 37) admissions/1000 at risk (p<0.005). All-cause admissions (113 (95% CI: 107 to 120) vs. 73 (95% CI 68 to 79) admissions/1000 at risk, p<0.001) and concurrent respiratory disease (21% vs. 12%,p<0.001) were consistently higher in winter. 2010 patients died, mortality was highest in August relative to February: 23 (95% CI: 20 to 27) vs. 12 (95% CI: 10 to 15) deaths per 1000 at risk, p<0.001. Those aged 75 years or older were most at risk of seasonal variations in morbidity and mortality. Conclusion Seasonal variations in CHF-related morbidity and mortality occur in the hot climate of South Australia, suggesting that relative (rather than absolute) changes in temperature drive this global phenomenon.

Editoral : Correspondence regarding Anker SD, Koehler F, Abraham WT. Telemedicine and remote management of patients with heart failure. The Lancet 2011; 378: 731–39. Published 20 August 2011.

We read the excellent review of telemonitoring in chronic heart failure (CHF)1 with interest and commend the authors on the proposed classification of telemedical remote management systems according to the type of data transfer, decision ability and level of integration. However, several points require clarification in relation to our Cochrane review of telemonitoring and structured telephone support2. We included a study by Kielblock3. We corresponded directly with this study team specifically to find out whether or not this was a randomised study and were informed that it was a randomised trial, albeit by date of birth. We note in our review2 that this randomisation method carries a high risk of bias. Post-hoc metaanalyses without these data demonstrate no substantial change to the effect estimates for all cause mortality (original risk ratio (RR) 0·66 [95% CI 0·54, 0·81], p<0·0001; revised RR 0·72 [95% CI 0·57, 0·92], p=0·008), all-cause hospitalisation (original RR 0·91 [95% CI 0·84, 0·99] p=0·02; revised RR 0.92 [95% CI 0·84, 1·02], p=0·10 ) or CHF-related hospitalisation (original RR 0·79 [95% CI 0·67, 0·94] p=0·008; revised RR 0·75 [95% CI 0·60, 0·94] p=0·01). Secondly, we would classify the Tele-HF study4, 5 as structured telephone support, rather than telemonitoring. Again, inclusion of these data alters the point-estimate but not the overall result of the meta-analyses4. Finally, our review2 does not include invasive telemonitoring as the search strategy was not designed to capture these studies. Therefore direct comparison of our review findings with recent studies of these interventions is not recommended.

Risk-informed thinking in airports: the application of business continuity management in airport infrastructure

Airports worldwide represent key forms of critical infrastructure in addition to serving as nodes in the international aviation network. While the continued operation of airports is critical to the functioning of reliable air passenger and freight transportation, these infrastructure systems face a number of sources of disturbance that threaten their operational viability. Recent examples of high magnitude events include the eruption of Iceland’s Eyjafjallajokull volcano eruption (Folattau and Schofield 2010), the failure of multiple systems at the opening of Heathrow’s Terminal 5 (Brady and Davies 2010) and the Glasgow airport 2007 terrorist attack (Crichton 2008). While these newsworthy events do occur, a multitude of lower-level more common disturbances also have the potential to cause significant discontinuity to airport operations. Regional airports face a unique set of challenges, particularly in a nation like Australia where they serve to link otherwise remote and isolated communities to metropolitan hubs (Wheeler 2005), often without the resources and political attention received by larger capital city airports. This paper discusses conceptual relationships between Business Continuity Management (BCM) and High Reliability Theory, and proposes BCM as an appropriate risk-based management process to ensure continued airport operation in the face of uncertainty. In addition, it argues that that correctly implemented BCM can lead to highly reliable organisations. This is framed within the broader context of critical infrastructures and the need for adequate crisis management approaches suited to their unique requirements (Boin and McConnell 2007).

Advance pricing arrangements : an Australian Tax Office success or a legislative failure?

Australia’s domestic income tax legislation and double tax agreements contain transfer pricing rules which are designed to counter the underpayment of tax by businesses engaged in international dealings between related parties. The current legislation and agreements require that related party transactions take place at a value which reflects an arm’s length price, that is, a price which would be charged between unrelated parties. For a host of reasons, it is increasingly difficult for multinational entities to demonstrate that they are transferring goods and services at a price which is reflective of the behaviour of independent parties, thereby making it difficult to demonstrate compliance with the relevant legislation. Further, where an Australian business undertakes cross-border related party transactions there is the risk of an audit by the Australian Tax Office (ATO). If a business wishes to avoid the risk of an audit, and any ensuing penalties, there is one option: an advance pricing arrangement (APA). An APA is an agreement whereby the future transfer pricing methodology to be used to determine the arm’s length price is agreed to by the taxpayer and the relevant tax authority or authorities. The ATO views the APA process as an important part of its international tax strategy and believes that there are complementary benefits provided to both the taxpayer and the ATO. The ATO promotes the APA process on the basis of creating greater certainty for all parties while reducing compliance costs and the risk of audit and penalty. While the ATO regards the APA system as a success, it may be argued that the implementation of such a system is simply a practical solution to an ongoing problem of an inherent failure in both the legislation and ATO interpretation and application of this legislation to provide certainty to the taxpayer. This paper investigates the use of APAs as a solution to the problem of transfer pricing and considers whether they are the success the ATO claims. It is argued that there is no doubt that APAs provide a valuable practical tool for multinational entities facing the challenges of the taxation of global trading under the current transfer pricing regime. It does not, however, provide a long term solution. Rather, the long term solution may be in the form of legislative amendment.

Evaluation of the skills for preventing injury in youth program : impact on health risk behaviors, injury and school connectedness

Injury is the leading cause of death among young people, and involvement in health risk behaviors, such as alcohol use and transport-related risks, is related to increased risk for injury. Effective health promotion programs for adolescents focus on multiple levels, including relationships with peers and parents, student knowledge, behavior and attitudes, and school-level factors such as school connectedness. This study describes the pilot evaluation of a comprehensive, multi-level injury prevention program for 13-14 year old adolescents, targeting change in injury associated with transport and alcohol risks. The program, called Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY), incorporates two primary elements: an 8-week, teacher delivered attitude and behavior change curriculum with peer protection and first aid messages; and professional development for program teachers focusing on strategies to increase students’ connectedness to school. Five Australian high schools were recruited for the pilot evaluation research, with three being assigned to receive intervention components and two assigned as curriculum-as-usual controls. In the intervention schools, 118 Year 8 students participated in surveys at baseline, with 105 completing surveys at follow up, six months following the intervention. In the control schools, 196 Year 8 students completed surveys at baseline and 207 at follow up. Survey measures included self-reported injury, risk taking behavior and school connectedness. Results showed that students in the control schools were significantly more likely to report riding bikes without helmets, riding with dangerous drivers, having driven cars on the road, and using alcohol six months after the program, while the intervention group showed no such increase in these behaviors. Additionally, students in the control schools were significantly more likely to report having had pedestrian-related injuries at follow up than they were at the baseline measurement, while intervention school students showed no change. There was also a trend observed in terms of a decrease in bicycle related injuries among intervention school students, compared with a slight increasing trend in bicycle injuries among control students. Overall, scores on the school connectedness scale decreased significantly from baseline to follow up for both intervention and control students, however measurement limitations may have impacted on results relating to students’ connectedness. Overall, the SPIY program has shown promising results in regards to prevention of students’ health risk behavior and injuries. Evidence suggests that the curriculum component was important; however there was limited evidence to suggest that teacher training in school connectedness strategies contributed to these promising results. While school connectedness may be an important factor to target in risk and injury prevention programs, programs may need to incorporate whole-of-school strategies or target a broader range of teachers than were selected for the current research.

Risk-based approach to the management of on-site wastewater treatment facilities

Background On-site wastewater treatment system (OWTS) siting, design and management has traditionally been based on site specific conditions with little regard to the surrounding environment or the cumulative effect of other systems in the environment. The general approach has been to apply the same framework of standards and regulations to all sites equally, regardless of the sensitivity, or lack thereof, to the receiving environment. Consequently, this has led to the continuing poor performance and failure of on-site systems, resulting in environmental and public health consequences. As a result, there is increasing realisation that more scientifically robust evaluations in regard to site assessment and the underlying ground conditions are needed. Risk-based approaches to on-site system siting, design and management are considered the most appropriate means of improvement to the current standards and codes for on-site wastewater treatment systems. The Project Research in relation to this project was undertaken within the Gold Coast City Council region, the major focus being the semi-urban, rural residential and hinterland areas of the city that are not serviced by centralised treatment systems. The Gold Coast has over 15,000 on-site systems in use, with approximately 66% being common septic tank-subsurface dispersal systems. A recent study evaluating the performance of these systems within the Gold Coast area showed approximately 90% were not meeting the specified guidelines for effluent treatment and dispersal. The main focus of this research was to incorporate strong scientific knowledge into an integrated risk assessment process to allow suitable management practices to be set in place to mitigate the inherent risks. To achieve this, research was undertaken focusing on three main aspects involved with the performance and management of OWTS. Firstly, an investigation into the suitability of soil for providing appropriate effluent renovation was conducted. This involved detailed soil investigations, laboratory analysis and the use of multivariate statistical methods for analysing soil information. The outcomes of these investigations were developed into a framework for assessing soil suitability for effluent renovation. This formed the basis for the assessment of OWTS siting and design risks employed in the developed risk framework. Secondly, an assessment of the environmental and public health risks was performed specifically related the release of contaminants from OWTS. This involved detailed groundwater and surface water sampling and analysis to assess the current and potential risks of contamination throughout the Gold Coast region. Additionally, the assessment of public health risk incorporated the use of bacterial source tracking methods to identify the different sources of fecal contamination within monitored regions. Antibiotic resistance pattern analysis was utilised to determine the extent of human faecal contamination, with the outcomes utilised for providing a more indicative public health assessment. Finally, the outcomes of both the soil suitability assessment and ground and surface water monitoring was utilised for the development of the integrated risk framework. The research outcomes achieved through this project enabled the primary research aims and objects to be accomplished. This in turn would enable Gold Coast City Council to provide more appropriate assessment and management guidelines based on robust scientific knowledge which will ultimately ensure that the potential environmental and public health impacts resulting from on-site wastewater treatment is minimised. As part of the implementation of suitable management strategies, a critical point monitoring program (CPM) was formulated. This entailed the identification of the key critical parameters that contribute to the characterised risks at monitored locations within the study area. The CPM will allow more direct procedures to be implemented, targeting the specific hazards at sensitive areas throughout Gold Coast region.

'It had to be my choice' Indigenous smoking cessation and negotiations of risk, resistance and resilience

While Australia is considered a world leader in tobacco control, smoking rates within the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population have not declined at the same rate. This failure highlights an obvious shortcoming of mainstream anti-smoking efforts to effectively understand and engage with the socio-cultural context of Indigenous smoking and smoking cessation experiences. The purpose of this article is to explore the narrative accounts of 20 Indigenous ex-smokers within an urban community and determine the motivators and enablers for successful smoking cessation. Our findings indicated that health risk narratives and the associated social stigma produced through anti-smoking campaigns formed part of a broader apparatus of oppression among Indigenous people, often inspiring resistance and resentment rather than compliance. Instead, a significant life event and supportive relationships were the most useful predictors of successful smoking cessation acting as both a motivator and enabler to behavioural change. Indigenous smoking cessation narratives most commonly involved changing and reordering a person’s life and identity and autonomy over this process was the critical building block to reclaiming control over nicotine addiction. Most promisingly, at an individual level, we found the important role that individual health professionals played in encouraging and supporting Indigenous smoking cessation through positive rather than punitive interactions. More broadly, our findings highlighted the central importance of resilience, empowerment, and trust within health promotion practice.

School-based programs for increasing connectedness and reducing risk behavior : a systematic review

School connectedness has a significant impact on adolescent outcomes, including reducing risk taking behavior. This paper critically examines the literature on school-based programs targeting increased connectedness for reductions in risk taking. Fourteen articles describing seven different school-based programs were reviewed. Programs drew on a range of theories to increase school connectedness, and evaluations conducted for the majority of programs demonstrated positive changes in school connectedness, risk behavior, or a combination of the two. Many of the reviewed programs involved widespread school system change, however, which is frequently a complex and time consuming task. Future research is needed to examine the extent of intervention complexity required to result in change. This review also showed a lack of consistency in definitions and measurement of connectedness as well as few mediation analyses testing assumptions of impact on risk taking behavior through increases in school connectedness. Additionally, this review revealed very limited evaluation of the elements of multi-component programs that are most effective in increasing school connectedness and reducing adolescent risk taking.

Modification of advanced programmatic risk analysis and management model for the whole project life cycle’s risks

The advanced programmatic risk analysis and management model (APRAM) is one of the recently developed methods that can be used for risk analysis and management purposes considering schedule, cost, and quality risks simultaneously. However, this model considers those failure risks that occur only over the design and construction phases of a project’s life cycle. While it can be sufficient for some projects for which the required cost during the operating life is much less than the budget required over the construction period, it should be modified in relation to infrastructure projects because the associated costs during the operating life cycle are significant. In this paper, a modified APRAM is proposed, which can consider potential risks that might occur over the entire life cycle of the project, including technical and managerial failure risks. Therefore, the modified model can be used as an efficient decision-support tool for construction managers in the housing industry in which various alternatives might be technically available. The modified method is demonstrated by using a real building project, and this demonstration shows that it can be employed efficiently by construction managers. The Delphi method was applied in order to figure out the failure events and their associated probabilities. The results show that although the initial cost of a cold-formed steel structural system is higher than a conventional construction system, the former’s failure cost is much lower than the latter’s

Pilot evaluation of an adolescent risk and injury prevention programme incorporating curriculum and school connectedness components

School connectedness is an important protective factor for adolescent risk-taking behaviour. This study examined a pilot version of the Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY) programme, combining teacher professional development for increasing school connectedness (connectedness component) with a risk and injury prevention curriculum for early adolescents (curriculum component). A process evaluation was conducted on the connectedness component, involving assessments of programme reach, participant receptiveness and initial use, and a preliminary impact evaluation was conducted on the combined connectedness and curriculum programme. The connectedness component was well received by teacher participants, who saw benefits for both themselves and their students. Classroom observation also showed that teachers who received professional development made use of the programme strategies. Grade 8 students who participated in the SPIY programme were less likely to report violent behaviour at six-month follow-up than were control students, and trends also suggested reduced transport injuries. The results of this research support the use of the combined SPIY connectedness and curriculum components in a large-scale effectiveness trial to assess the impact of the programme on students’ connectedness, risk-taking and associated injuries.

Teachers’ perceptions of school connectedness and risk-taking in adolescence

School connectedness has been shown to be an important protective factor in adolescent development, which is associated with reduced risk-taking behaviour. Interventions to increase students’ connectedness to school commonly incorporate aspects of teacher training. To date, however, research on connectedness has largely been based on student survey data, with no reported research addressing teachers’ perceptions of students’ connectedness and its association with student behavior. This research attempted to address this gap in the literature through in depth interviews with 14 school teachers and staff from two Australian high schools. Findings showed that teachers perceived students’ connectedness to be important in regards to reducing problem behavior, and discussed aspects of connectedness, including fairness and discipline, feeling valued, belonging and having teacher support, and being successfully engaged in school, as being particularly important. This research enables the development of school-based intervention programs that are based on both student and teacher-focused research.

Fixed failure rate ambiguity validation methods for GPS and compass

Ambiguity resolution plays a crucial role in real time kinematic GNSS positioning which gives centimetre precision positioning results if all the ambiguities in each epoch are correctly fixed to integers. However, the incorrectly fixed ambiguities can result in large positioning offset up to several meters without notice. Hence, ambiguity validation is essential to control the ambiguity resolution quality. Currently, the most popular ambiguity validation is ratio test. The criterion of ratio test is often empirically determined. Empirically determined criterion can be dangerous, because a fixed criterion cannot fit all scenarios and does not directly control the ambiguity resolution risk. In practice, depending on the underlying model strength, the ratio test criterion can be too conservative for some model and becomes too risky for others. A more rational test method is to determine the criterion according to the underlying model and user requirement. Miss-detected incorrect integers will lead to a hazardous result, which should be strictly controlled. In ambiguity resolution miss-detected rate is often known as failure rate. In this paper, a fixed failure rate ratio test method is presented and applied in analysis of GPS and Compass positioning scenarios. A fixed failure rate approach is derived from the integer aperture estimation theory, which is theoretically rigorous. The criteria table for ratio test is computed based on extensive data simulations in the approach. The real-time users can determine the ratio test criterion by looking up the criteria table. This method has been applied in medium distance GPS ambiguity resolution but multi-constellation and high dimensional scenarios haven't been discussed so far. In this paper, a general ambiguity validation model is derived based on hypothesis test theory, and fixed failure rate approach is introduced, especially the relationship between ratio test threshold and failure rate is examined. In the last, Factors that influence fixed failure rate approach ratio test threshold is discussed according to extensive data simulation. The result shows that fixed failure rate approach is a more reasonable ambiguity validation method with proper stochastic model.

Studies of the off-field behaviours of sportspeople : are sponsors' objectives at risk?

The research reported here addresses the problem of athlete off-field behaviours as they influence sports’ sponsors, particularly the achievement of sponsorship objectives. The question arises because of incidents of sponsorship contract cancellation following news-media reporting of athletes’ off-field behaviours. Two studies are used to investigate the research question; the first establishes the content of news-media reports, and the second tests the effects of news’ reports on athlete, team and sponsor evaluations using an experimental design. Key assumptions of the research are that sponsorship objectives are principally consumer-based and mediated. Models of sponsorship argue that sponsors aim to reach and influence consumers through sponsees. Assuming this pathway exists is central to sponsorship activities. A corollary is that other mediators, in this case the news-media, may also communicate (uncontrollable) messages such that a consumer audience may be told of negative news that may then be associated with the sponsor. When sponsors cancel contracts it is assumed that their goal is to control the links between their brand and a negative referent. Balance theory is used to discuss the potential effects of negative off-field behaviours of athletes on sponsor’s objectives. Heider’s balance theory (1958) explains that individuals prefer to evaluate linked individuals or entities consistently. In the sponsorship context this presents the possibility that a negative evaluation of the athlete’s behaviour will contribute to correspondingly negative evaluations of the athlete’s team and sponsors. A content analysis (Study 1) was used to survey the types of athlete off-field behaviours commonly reported in a newspaper. In order to provide a local context for the research, articles from the Courier Mail were sampled and teams in the National Rugby League (NRL) competition were the focus of the research. The study identified nearly 2000 articles referring to the NRL competition; 258 of those refer to off-field incidents involving athletes. The various types of behaviours reported include assault, sexual assault allegations, driving under the influence of alcohol, illicit drug use, breaches of club rules, and positive off-field activities (i.e., charitable activities). An experiment (Study 2) tested three news’ article stimuli developed from the behaviours identified in Study 1 in a between-subjects design. A measure of Identification with the Team was used as a covariate variable in the Multivariate Analysis of Covariance analysis. Social identity theory suggests that when an individual identifies with a group, their attitudes and behaviours towards both in- and out-group members are modified. Use of Identification with the Team as a covariate acknowledges that respondents will evaluate behaviours differently according to the attribution of those behaviours to an in- or out-group member. Findings of the research suggest that the news’ article stimuli have significant, large effects on evaluations of athlete off-field behaviour and athlete Likability. Consistent with pretest results, charitable fundraising is regarded as extremely positive; the athlete, correspondingly, is likable. Assault is evaluated as extremely negative, and the athlete as unlikable. DUI scores reveal that the athlete’s behaviour is very negative; however, the athlete’s likability was evaluated as neutral. Treatment group does not produce any significant effects on team or sponsor variables. This research also finds that Identification with the Team has significant, large effects on team variables (Attitude toward the Brand and Corporate Image). Identification also has a significant large effect on athlete Likability, but not on Attitude toward the Act. Identification with the Team does not produce any significant effects on sponsor variables. The results of this research suggest that sponsor’s consumer-based objectives are not threatened by newspaper reports linking athlete off-field behaviour with their brand. Evaluations of sponsor variables (Attitude toward the Sponsor’s Brand and Corporate Image) were consistently positive. Variance in that data, however, cannot be attributed to experimental stimuli or Identification with the Team. These results argue that respondents may regard sponsorships, in principle, as good. Although it is good news for sponsors that negative evaluations of athletes will not produce correspondingly negative evaluations of consumer-based sponsorship objectives, the results indicate problems for sponsorship managers. The failure of Identification with the Team to explain sponsor variable variance indicates that the sponsor has not been evaluated as a linked entity in a relationship with the sporting team and athlete in this research. This result argues that the sponsee-mediated affective communication path that sponsors aim use to communicate with desirable publics is not necessarily a path available to them.

Not all systematic reviews are systematic : a meta-review of the quality of systematic reviews for non-invasive remote monitoring in heart failure

Remote monitoring for heart failure has been evaluated in numerous systematic reviews. The aim of this meta-review was to appraise their quality and synthesise results. We electronically searched online databases, performed a forward citation search and hand-searched bibliographies. Systematic reviews of remote monitoring interventions that were used for surveillance of heart failure patients were included. Seven (41%) systematic reviews pooled results for meta-analysis. Eight (47%) considered all non-invasive remote monitoring strategies. Five (29%) focused on telemonitoring. Four (24%) included both non-invasive and invasive technologies. According to AMSTAR criteria, ten (58%) systematic reviews were of poor methodological quality. In high quality reviews, the relative risk of mortality in patients who received remote monitoring ranged from 0.53 (95% CI=0.29-0.96) to 0.88 (95% CI=0.76-1.01). High quality reviews also reported that remote monitoring reduced the relative risk of all-cause (0.52; 95% CI=0.28-0.96 to 0.96; 95% CI=0.90–1.03) and heart failure-related hospitalizations (0.72; 95% CI=0.64–0.81 to RR 0.79; 95% CI=0.67-0.94) and, as a consequence, healthcare costs. As the high quality reviews reported that remote monitoring reduced hospitalizations, mortality and healthcare costs, research efforts should now be directed towards optimising these interventions in preparation for more widespread implementation.

The benefits of thermal clothing during winter in patients with heart failure : a pilot randomised controlled trial

Background Many Australian cities experience large winter increases in deaths and hospitalisations. Flu outbreaks are only part of the problem and inadequate protection from cold weather is a key independent risk factor. Better home insulation has been shown to improve health during winter, but no study has examined whether better personal insulation improves health. Data and Methods We ran a randomised controlled trial of thermal clothing versus usual care. Subjects with heart failure (a group vulnerable to cold) were recruited from a public hospital in Brisbane in winter and followed-up at the end of winter. Those randomised to the intervention received two thermal hats and tops and a digital thermometer. The primary outcome was the number of days in hospital, with secondary outcomes of General Practitioner (GP) visits and self-rated health. Results The mean number of days in hospital per 100 winter days was 2.5 in the intervention group and 1.8 in the usual care group, with a mean difference of 0.7 (95% CI: –1.5, 5.4). The intervention group had 0.2 fewer GP visits on average (95% CI: –0.8, 0.3), and a higher self-rated health, mean improvement –0.3 (95% CI: –0.9, 0.3). The thermal tops were generally well used, but even in cold temperatures the hats were only worn by 30% of subjects. Conclusions Thermal clothes are a cheap and simple intervention, but further work needs to be done on increasing compliance and confirming the health and economic benefits of providing thermals to at-risk groups.