Visualization of predictive distributions for discrete spatial-temporal log Cox processes approximated with MCMC

An important aspect of decision support systems involves applying sophisticated and flexible statistical models to real datasets and communicating these results to decision makers in interpretable ways. An important class of problem is the modelling of incidence such as fire, disease etc. Models of incidence known as point processes or Cox processes are particularly challenging as they are ‘doubly stochastic’ i.e. obtaining the probability mass function of incidents requires two integrals to be evaluated. Existing approaches to the problem either use simple models that obtain predictions using plug-in point estimates and do not distinguish between Cox processes and density estimation but do use sophisticated 3D visualization for interpretation. Alternatively other work employs sophisticated non-parametric Bayesian Cox process models, but do not use visualization to render interpretable complex spatial temporal forecasts. The contribution here is to fill this gap by inferring predictive distributions of Gaussian-log Cox processes and rendering them using state of the art 3D visualization techniques. This requires performing inference on an approximation of the model on a discretized grid of large scale and adapting an existing spatial-diurnal kernel to the log Gaussian Cox process context.

An additive model for spatio-temporal smoothing of cancer mortality rates

In this paper, a Bayesian hierarchical model is used to anaylze the female breast cancer mortality rates for the State of Missouri from 1969 through 2001. The logit transformations of the mortality rates are assumed to be linear over the time with additive spatial and age effects as intercepts and slopes. Objective priors of the hierarchical model are explored. The Bayesian estimates are quite robustness in terms change of the hyperparamaters. The spatial correlations are appeared in both intercepts and slopes.

GPU accelerated MCMC for modelling terrorist activity

The use of graphical processing unit (GPU) parallel processing is becoming a part of mainstream statistical practice. The reliance of Bayesian statistics on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods makes the applicability of parallel processing not immediately obvious. It is illustrated that there are substantial gains in improved computational time for MCMC and other methods of evaluation by computing the likelihood using GPU parallel processing. Examples use data from the Global Terrorism Database to model terrorist activity in Colombia from 2000 through 2010 and a likelihood based on the explicit convolution of two negative-binomial processes. Results show decreases in computational time by a factor of over 200. Factors influencing these improvements and guidelines for programming parallel implementations of the likelihood are discussed.

A history of environmental management in the field in Queensland : episodes of activity

This paper reviews a wide range of literature on environmental management in the field in Queensland, and analyzes this by period and by author. An episodic pattern of activities since European settlement is evident. Periods of exploration (pre-1950) and inventory- compilation (ca. 1950-1970) were followed by two decades of media and non-government organization campaigning (ca. 1970-1990), then an era dominated by government regulatory action (ca. 1990-2010). These eras dominated public perception of what was happening in environmental practice. They were delineated by historic ‘interventions’ (summarily, the end of World War II, the 1971 inflationary crisis, and computerization respectively).

Integrin αvβ3 mediates upregulation of epidermal growth-factor receptor expression and activity in human ovarian cancer cells

Upon overexpression of integrin αvβ3 and its engagement by vitronectin, we previously showed enhanced adhesion, proliferation, and motility of human ovarian cancer cells. By studying differential expression of genes possibly related to these tumor biological events, we identified the epidermal growth-factor receptor (EGF-R) to be under control of αvβ3 expression levels. Thus in the present study we characterized αvβ3-dependent changes of EGF-R and found significant upregulation of its expression and activity which was reflected by prominent changes of EGF-R promoter activity. Upon disruption of DNA-binding motifs for the transcription factors p53, ETF, the repressor ETR, p50, and c-rel, respectively, we sought to identify DNA elements contributing to αvβ3-mediated EGF-R promoter induction. Both, the p53- and ETF-mutant, while exhibiting considerably lower EGF-R promoter activity than the wild type promoter, retained inducibility by αvβ3. Mutation of the repressor motif ETR, as expected, enhanced EGF-R promoter activity with a further moderate increase upon αvβ3 elevation. The p50-mutant displayed EGF-R promoter activity almost comparable to that of the wild type promoter with no impairment of induction by αvβ3. However, the activity of an EGF-R promoter mutant displaying a disrupted c-rel-binding motif did not only prominently decline, but, moreover, was not longer responsive to enhanced αvβ3, involving this DNA element in αvβ3-dependent EGF-R upregulation. Moreover, αvβ3 did not only increase the EGF-R but, moreover, also led to obvious co-clustering on the cancer cell surface. By studying αvβ3/EGF-R-effects on the focal adhesion kinase (FAK) and the mitogen activated protein kinases (MAPK) p44/42 (erk−1/erk−2), having important functions in synergistic crosstalk between integrins and growth-factor receptors, we found for both significant enhancement of expression and activity upon αvβ3/VN interaction and cell stimulation by EGF. Upregulation of the EGF-R by integrin αvβ3, both receptor molecules with a well-defined role as targets for cancer treatment, might represent an additional mechanism to adapt synergistic receptor signaling and crosstalk in response to an altered tumor cell microenvironment during ovarian cancer progression.

Promoting active lifestyles in young children: investigating mothers’ decisions about their child’s physical activity and screen time behaviours

Objectives Given increasing trends of obesity being noted from early in life and that active lifestyles track across time, it is important that children at a very young age be active to combat a foundation of unhealthy behaviours forming. This study investigated, within a theory of planned behaviour (TPB) framework, factors which influence mothers’ decisions about their child’s 1) adequate physical activity (PA) and 2) limited screen time behaviours. Methods Mothers (N = 162) completed a main questionnaire, via on-line or paper-based administration, which comprised standard TPB items in addition to measures of planning and background demographic variables. One week later, consenting mothers completed a follow-up telephone questionnaire which assessed the decisions they had made regarding their child’s PA and screen time behaviours during the previous week. Results Hierarchical multiple regression analyses revealed support for the predictive model, explaining an overall 73% and 78% of the variance in mothers’ intention and 38% and 53% of the variance in mothers’ decisions to ensure their child engages in adequate PA and limited screen time, respectively. Attitude and subjective norms predicted intention in both target behaviours, as did intentions with behaviour. Contrary to predictions, perceived behavioural control (PBC) in PA behaviour and planning in screen time behaviour were not significant predictors of intention, neither was PBC a predictor of either behaviour. Conclusions The findings illustrate the various roles that psycho-social factors play in mothers’ decisions to ensure their child engages in active lifestyle behaviours which can help to inform future intervention programs aimed at combating very young children’s inactivity.

Do community-wide interventions increase physical activity? S1TEP

Background Not getting enough physical activity leads to poorer health. Regular physical activity can reduce the risk of chronic disease and improve one’s health and well-being. The lack of physical activity is a common and growing problem in many countries. We sought to evaluate the effects of community wide, multi-strategic interventions upon the physical activity patterns of populations. Method We undertook a Cochrane Systematic Review which included an extensive search of databases, including studies which met pre-determined criteria, and conducted independent risk of bias assessment and data extraction. Results After the selection process, 25 studies were included in the review. The strategies varied by the number and type of components and their intensity. No studies were identified as low risk of bias. Sixteen studies were identified as having a high risk of bias and thus untrustworthy. Nine studies were of considered to have an unclear risk of bias and some studies held back data they collected. The effects reported were inconsistent across the studies and the measures. Some of the better designed studies showed no improvement in measures of physical activity. Interventions which have an environmental change component seemed to be a promising direction. Those interventions which were primarily a mass media campaign were less likely to be successful. Conclusions Although numerous studies have been undertaken, there is considerable inconsistency in the findings of the available studies and this is confounded by serious methodological issues within the included studies. Simply combining interventions does not necessarily result in increased physical activity as many such studies, including some long term programs, failed to demonstrate efficacy. There is a clear need for well-designed studies and these studies should focus on the quality of measurement of physical activity. The review is currently being updated with newer studies.

Evidence of effectiveness : high level synthesis of research to prevent obesity and increase physical activity in children

Background Prevention of childhood obesity is a public health priority for Malaysia and many other countries. Physical activity for children is also decreasing at an alarming rate. Both conditions are associated with non-communicable diseases and with significant morbidity and mortality in later life. Systematic reviews of public health interventions provide a useful summary to inform public health practice by combining the results of a range of research studies on a specific intervention into a single report. Systematic reviews are deemed most valuable for health program development and evidence based practice. Unfortunately, many policy makers and practitioners are simply unaware of the evidence: which strategies which are most likely to provide benefit; and which strategies are known to be harmful or useless. This presentation provides a “birds eye” overview based upon recent (since 2007 to present) high quality systematic reviews of public health interventions. Method HealthEvidece.org and the Cochrane Library were searched for systematic reviews which evaluated interventions targeting obesity prevention and increasing physical activity for children. The findings of the included reviews were themed and summarized. Results Seven reviews were identified addressing obesity in the early years, and fifteen reviews addressing obesity more broadly in childhood. Additional reviews were identified aimed at increasing physical activity. The synthesis shows several strategies to be effective, however many popular strategies clearly are not. Several of the reviews were inconclusive due to an absence of robust primary studies. Amongst the findings, interventions undertaken in the school setting appear very promising. Conclusions There is significant evidence from systematic reviews to guide public health practice and policy, and to inform future research.

Tracking spatio temporal movement of human in terms of space utilization using media access control address data

Using Media-Access-Control (MAC) address for data collection and tracking is a capable and cost effective approach as the traditional ways such as surveys and video surveillance have numerous drawbacks and limitations. Positioning cell-phones by Global System for Mobile communication was considered an attack on people's privacy. MAC addresses just keep a unique log of a WiFi or Bluetooth enabled device for connecting to another device that has not potential privacy infringements. This paper presents the use of MAC address data collection approach for analysis of spatio-temporal dynamics of human in terms of shared space utilization. This paper firstly discuses the critical challenges and key benefits of MAC address data as a tracking technology for monitoring human movement. Here, proximity-based MAC address tracking is postulated as an effective methodology for analysing the complex spatio-temporal dynamics of human movements at shared zones such as lounge and office areas. A case study of university staff lounge area is described in detail and results indicates a significant added value of the methodology for human movement tracking. By analysis of MAC address data in the study area, clear statistics such as staff’s utilisation frequency, utilisation peak periods, and staff time spent is obtained. The analyses also reveal staff’s socialising profiles in terms of group and solo gathering. The paper is concluded with a discussion on why MAC address tracking offers significant advantages for tracking human behaviour in terms of shared space utilisation with respect to other and more prominent technologies, and outlines some of its remaining deficiencies.

Understanding the abnormal brain activity in epilepsy as a potential predictor of the onset of an epileptic seizure

The Brain Research Institute (BRI) uses various types of indirect measurements, including EEG and fMRI, to understand and assess brain activity and function. As well as the recovery of generic information about brain function, research also focuses on the utilisation of such data and understanding to study the initiation, dynamics, spread and suppression of epileptic seizures. To assist with the future focussing of this aspect of their research, the BRI asked the MISG 2010 participants to examine how the available EEG and fMRI data and current knowledge about epilepsy should be analysed and interpreted to yield an enhanced understanding about brain activity occurring before, at commencement of, during, and after a seizure. Though the deliberations of the study group were wide ranging in terms of the related matters considered and discussed, considerable progress was made with the following three aspects. (1) The science behind brain activity investigations depends crucially on the quality of the analysis and interpretation of, as well as the recovery of information from, EEG and fMRI measurements. A number of specific methodologies were discussed and formalised, including independent component analysis, principal component analysis, profile monitoring and change point analysis (hidden Markov modelling, time series analysis, discontinuity identification). (2) Even though EEG measurements accurately and very sensitively record the onset of an epileptic event or seizure, they are, from the perspective of understanding the internal initiation and localisation, of limited utility. They only record neuronal activity in the cortical (surface layer) neurons of the brain, which is a direct reflection of the type of electrical activity they have been designed to record. Because fMRI records, through the monitoring of blood flow activity, the location of localised brain activity within the brain, the possibility of combining fMRI measurements with EEG, as a joint inversion activity, was discussed and examined in detail. (3) A major goal for the BRI is to improve understanding about ``when'' (at what time) an epileptic seizure actually commenced before it is identified on an eeg recording, ``where'' the source of this initiation is located in the brain, and ``what'' is the initiator. Because of the general agreement in the literature that, in one way or another, epileptic events and seizures represent abnormal synchronisations of localised and/or global brain activity the modelling of synchronisations was examined in some detail. References C. M. Michel, G. Thut, S. Morand, A. Khateb, A. J. Pegna, R. Grave de Peralta, S. Gonzalez, M. Seeck and T. Landis, Electric source imaging of human brain functions, Brain Res. 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Genomic organisation, activity and distribution analysis of the microbial putrescine oxidase degradation pathway

The catalytic action of putrescine specific amine oxidases acting in tandem with 4-aminobutyraldehyde dehydrogenase is explored as a degradative pathway in Rhodococcus opacus. By limiting the nitrogen source, increased catalytic activity was induced leading to a coordinated response in the oxidative deamination of putrescine to 4-aminobutyraldehyde and subsequent dehydrogenation to 4-aminobutyrate. Isolating the dehydrogenase by ion exchange chromatography and gel filtration revealed that the enzyme acts principally on linear aliphatic aldehydes possessing an amino moiety. Michaelis-Menten kinetic analysis delivered a Michaelis constant (KM=0.014mM) and maximum rate (Vmax=11.2μmol/min/mg) for the conversion of 4-aminobutyraldehyde to 4-aminobutyrate. The dehydrogenase identified by MALDI-TOF mass spectrometric analysis (E value=0.031, 23% coverage) belongs to a functionally related genomic cluster that includes the amine oxidase, suggesting their association in a directed cell response. Key regulatory, stress and transport encoding genes have been identified, along with candidate dehydrogenases and transaminases for the further conversion of 4-aminobutyrate to succinate. Genomic analysis has revealed highly similar metabolic gene clustering among members of Actinobacteria, providing insight into putrescine degradation notably among Micrococcaceae, Rhodococci and Corynebacterium by a pathway that was previously uncharacterised in bacteria.

Racial differences in physical activity among breast cancer survivors : implications for breast cancer care

Background: Physical activity after breast cancer diagnosis is associated with improved survival. This study examines levels of and changes in physical activity following breast cancer diagnosis, overall and by race. Methods: The Carolina Breast Cancer Study, Phase III, assessed pre- and post-diagnosis physical activity levels in a cohort of 1,735 women, aged 20-74, diagnosed with invasive breast cancer between 2008 and 2011 in 44 counties of North Carolina. Logistic regression and analysis of variance were used to examine whether demographic, behavioral and clinical characteristics were associated with activity levels. Results: Only 35% of breast cancer survivors met current physical activity guidelines post-diagnosis. A decrease in activity following diagnosis was reported by 59% of patients, with the average study participant reducing their activity by 230 minutes (95% CI: 190, 270). Following adjustment for potential confounders, when compared to white women, African-American women were less likely to meet national physical activity guidelines post-diagnosis (odds ratio: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.88), reported less weekly post-diagnosis physical activity (182 vs. 215 minutes; p=0.13), and reported higher average reductions in pre- versus post-diagnosis weekly activity (262 vs. 230 minutes; p-value = 0.13). Conclusion: Despite compelling evidence demonstrating the benefits of physical activity post-breast cancer, it is clear that more work needs to be done to promote physical activity in breast cancer patients, especially among African-American women.

Aligning in and through interaction : children getting in and out of spontaneous activity

Spontaneous play, important for forming the basis of friendships and peer relations, is a complex activity involving the management and production of talk-in-interaction. This paper focuses on the intricacies of social interaction, emphasising the link between alignment and affiliation, and the range and importance of verbal and nonverbal interactive devices available to children. Analysis of the way in which two girls, one of whom has been diagnosed with Asperger’s Syndrome, engage in spontaneous activities demonstrates the potential for interactional difficulty due to the unscripted nature of the interaction. The paper argues for further research into how improvised, unscripted interactions are initiated within moment-by-moment talk, how they unfold, and how they are brought to a close in everyday contexts in order to understand how children create their social worlds.

An investigation of the pre-irradiation temporal stability of PAGAT gel dosimeter

In this work we examine two aspects of the PAGAT gel dosimeter. The first aspect studied is determination of a stable range of concentrations of the anti-oxidant Tetrakis Hydroxy Phosphonium Chloride (THPC). Once the desired THPC concentration is determined, we proceed to an investigation into the effect of pre-irradiation storage time and how this affects the dose response of the gel.

Red colouration in apple fruit is due to the activity of the MYB transcription factor, MdMYB10

Anthocyanin concentration is an important determinant of the colour of many fruits. In apple (Malus x domestica), centuries of breeding have produced numerous varieties in which levels of anthocyanin pigment vary widely and change in response to environmental and developmental stimuli. The apple fruit cortex is usually colourless, although germplasm does exist where the cortex is highly pigmented due to the accumulation of either anthocyanins or carotenoids. From studies in a diverse array of plant species, it is apparent that anthocyanin biosynthesis is controlled at the level of transcription. Here we report the transcript levels of the anthocyanin biosynthetic genes in a red-fleshed apple compared with a white-fleshed cultivar. We also describe an apple MYB transcription factor, MdMYB10, that is similar in sequence to known anthocyanin regulators in other species. We further show that this transcription factor can induce anthocyanin accumulation in both heterologous and homologous systems, generating pigmented patches in transient assays in tobacco leaves and highly pigmented apple plants following stable transformation with constitutively expressed MdMYB10. Efficient induction of anthocyanin biosynthesis in transient assays by MdMYB10 was dependent on the co-expression of two distinct bHLH proteins from apple, MdbHLH3 and MdbHLH33. The strong correlation between the expression of MdMYB10 and apple anthocyanin levels during fruit development suggests that this transcription factor is responsible for controlling anthocyanin biosynthesis in apple fruit; in the red-fleshed cultivar and in the skin of other varieties, there is an induction of MdMYB10 expression concurrent with colour formation during development. Characterization of MdMYB10 has implications for the development of new varieties through classical breeding or a biotechnological approach.