621 resultados para risk prediction


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Academic pressure among adolescents is a major risk factor for poor mental health and suicide and other harmful behaviours. While this is a worldwide phenomenon, it appears to be especially pronounced in China and other East Asian countries. Despite a growing body of research into adolescent mental health in recent years, the multiple constructs within the ‘educational stress’ phenomenon have not been clearly articulated in Chinese contexts. Further, the individual, family, school and peer influencing factors for educational stress and its associations with adolescent mental health are not well understood. An in-depth investigation may provide important information for the ongoing educational reform in Mainland China with a special focus on students’ mental health and wellbeing. The primary goal of this study was to examine the relative contribution of educational stress to poor mental health, in comparison to other well-known individual, family, school and peer factors. Another important task was to identify significant risk factors for educational stress. In addition, due to the lack of a culturally suitable instrument for educational stress in this population, a new tool – the Educational Stress Scale for Adolescents (ESSA) was initially developed in this study and tested for reliability and validity. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect information from convenient samples of secondary school students in Shandong, China. The pilot survey was conducted with 347 students (grades 8 and 11) to test the psychometric properties of the ESSA and other scales or questions in the questionnaire. Based on factor analysis and reliability and validity testing, the 16-item scale (the ESSA) with five factors showed adequate to good internal consistency, 2-week test-retest reliability, and satisfactory concurrent and predictive validity. Its factor structure was further demonstrated in the main survey with a confirmatory factor analysis illustrating a good fit of the proposed model based on a confirmatory factor analysis. The reliabilities of other scales and questions were also adequate to be used in this study. The main survey was subsequently conducted with a sample of 1627 secondary school (grades 7-12) students to examine the influencing factors of educational stress and its associations with mental health outcomes, including depression, happiness and suicidal behaviours. A wide range of individual, family, school and peer factors were found to have a significant association with the total ESSA and subscale scores. Most of the strong factors for academic stress were school or study-related, including rural school location, low school connectedness, perceived poor academic grades and frequent emotional conflicts with teachers and peers. Unexpectedly, family and parental factors, such as parental bonding, family connectedness and conflicts with parents were found to have little or no association with educational stress. Educational stress was the most predictive variable for depression, but was not strongly associated with happiness. It had a strong association with suicide ideation but not with suicide attempts. Among five subscales of the ESSA, ‘Study despondency’ score had the strongest associations with these mental health measures. Surprising, two subscales, ‘Self-expectation’ and ‘Worry about grades’ showed a protective effect on suicidal behaviours. An additional analysis revealed that although academic pressure was the most commonly reported reason for suicidal thinking, the occurrence of problems in peer relationships such as peer teasing and bullying, and romantic problems had a much stronger relationship with actual attempts. This study provides some insights into the nature and health implications of educational stress among Chinese adolescents. Findings in this study suggest that interventions on educational stress should focus on school environment and academic factors. Intervention programs focused on educational stress may have a high impact on the prevalence of common mental disorders such as depression. Efforts to increase perceived happiness however should cover a wider range of individual, family and school factors. The importance of healthy peer relationships should be adequately emphasised in suicide prevention. In addition, the newly developed scale (the ESSA) demonstrates sound psychometric properties and is expected to be used in future research into academic-related stress among secondary school adolescents.

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Background Seasonal changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors may be due to exposure to seasonal environmental variables like temperature and acute infections or seasonal behavioural patterns in physical activity and diet. Investigating the seasonal pattern of risk factors should help determine the causes of the seasonal pattern in CVD. Few studies have investigated the seasonal variation in risk factors using repeated measurements from the same individual, which is important as individual and population seasonal patterns may differ. Methods The authors investigated the seasonal pattern in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, body weight, total cholesterol, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, C reactive protein and fibrinogen. Measurements came from 38 037 participants in the population-based cohort, the Tromsø Study, examined up to eight times from 1979 to 2008. Individual and population seasonal patterns were estimated using a cosinor in a mixed model. Results All risk factors had a highly statistically significant seasonal pattern with a peak time in winter, except for triglycerides (peak in autumn), C reactive protein and fibrinogen (peak in spring). The sizes of the seasonal variations were clinically modest. Conclusions Although the authors found highly statistically significant individual seasonal patterns for all risk factors, the sizes of the changes were modest, probably because this subarctic population is well adapted to a harsh climate. Better protection against seasonal risk factors like cold weather could help reduce the winter excess in CVD observed in milder climates.

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Objective: Radiation safety principles dictate that imaging procedures should minimise the radiation risks involved, without compromising diagnostic performance. This study aims to define a core set of views that maximises clinical information yield for minimum radiation risk. Angiographers would supplement these views as clinically indicated. Methods: An algorithm was developed to combine published data detailing the quality of information derived for the major coronary artery segments through the use of a common set of views in angiography with data relating to the dose–area product and scatter radiation associated with these views. Results: The optimum view set for the left coronary system comprised four views: left anterior oblique (LAO) with cranial (Cr) tilt, shallow right anterior oblique (AP-RAO) with caudal (Ca) tilt, RAO with Ca tilt and AP-RAO with Cr tilt. For the right coronary system three views were identified: LAO with Cr tilt, RAO and AP-RAO with Cr tilt. An alternative left coronary view set including a left lateral achieved minimally superior efficiency (,5%), but with an ,8% higher radiation dose to the patient and 40% higher cardiologist dose. Conclusion: This algorithm identifies a core set of angiographic views that optimises the information yield and minimises radiation risk. This basic data set would be supplemented by additional clinically determined views selected by the angiographer for each case. The decision to use additional views for diagnostic angiography and interventions would be assisted by referencing a table of relative radiation doses for the views being considered.

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Motorcyclists in Australia have been found to be 30 times more likely to be killed per kilometre travelled than car occupants and 40 times more likely to be seriously injured. One approach to preventing motorcycle-related injury is through training and education. While there is traditionally a major focus on developing riding skills during training for motorcyclists, there is also a need for training to promote safe riding to reduce subsequent risk taking. The Transtheoretical Model, commonly known as the ‘Stages of Change’ model, provides a rationale to support incremental behaviour change for risky riding that may be facilitated through motorcycle rider training and education. A sample of 438 learner motorcyclists attended a rider training program in Queensland, Australia, with the stages of change to adopt a safe riding mindset and safe riding practices being measured upon commencement of the course (Time 1) and then again upon completion (Time 2). A small subset of the original sample (n=45) responded at follow up 24 months post training (Time 3). Consistent with the aims of training, results showed a significant shift from the contemplation stage to the subsequent stages of change for participants between Time 1 and Time 2. Progression to the later stages in the model was found for the subset of participants that responded at the Time 3 follow up. Issues of questionnaire design and the utility of the Transtheoretical Model for motorcycle rider training are discussed.

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Traditionally navigational safety analyses rely on historical collision data which is often hampered because of low collision counts, insufficiency in explaining collision causation, and reactive approach to safety. A promising alternative approach that overcomes these problems is using navigational traffic conflicts or near-misses as an alternative to the collision data. This book discusses how traffic conflicts can effectively be used in modeling of port water collision risks. Techniques for measuring and predicting collision risks in fairways, intersections, and anchorages are discussed by utilizing advanced statistical models. Risk measurement models, which quantitatively measure collision risks in waterways, are discussed. To predict risks, a hierarchical statistical modeling technique is discussed which identifies the factors influencing the risks. The modeling techniques are illustrated for Singapore port data. Results showed that traffic conflicts are an ethically appealing alternative to collision data for fast, reliable and effective safety assessment, thus possessing great potential for managing collision risks in port waters.

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In Australia, research suggests that up to one quarter of child pedestrian hospitalisations result from driveway run-over incidents (Pinkney et al., 2006). In Queensland, these numbers equate to an average of four child fatalities and 81 children presenting at hospital emergency departments every year (The Commission for Children, Young People and Child Guardian). National comparison shows that these numbers represent a slightly higher per capita rate (23.5% of all deaths). To address this issue, the current research was undertaken with the aim to develop an educative intervention based on data collected from parents and caregivers of young children. Thus, the current project did not seek to use available intervention or educational material, but to develop a new evidence-based intervention specifically targeting driveway run-overs involving young children. To this end, general behavioural and environmental changes that caregivers had undertaken in order to reduce the risk of injury to any child in their care were investigated. Broadly, the first part of this report sought to: • develop a conceptual model of established domestic safety behaviours, and to investigate whether this model could be successfully applied to the driveway setting; • explore and compare sources of knowledge regarding domestic and driveway child safety; and • examine the theoretical implications of current domestic and driveway related behaviour and knowledge among caregivers. The aim of the second part of this research was to develop and test the efficacy of an intervention based on the findings in the first part of the research project. Specifically, it sought to: • develop an educational driveway intervention that is based on current safety behaviours in the domestic setting and informed by existing knowledge of driveway safety and behaviour change theory; and • evaluate its efficacy in a sample of parents and caregivers.

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Background: Antibiotics misuse is currently one of the major public health issues worldwide. This misuse can lead to the development of bacterial resistance, increasing the burden of chronic diseases, rising costs of health services, and the development of side effects. Several factors may influence this pattern of overuse. Objectives:This article will review the pertinent factors contributing to the overuse of antibiotics worldwide, and to assess the intervention strategies to limit this overuse. Methods: studies about antibiotics use in children were reviewed from several electronic databases, such as MEDLINE and Pubmed. Results: Factors contributing to the overuse of antibiotics could include psychosocial factors, such as behaviors and attitudes (e.g. self-medication, over-the-counter medication, or patients/parents pressure), and demographic factors, such as socio-economic status and education level. Several intervention strategies were reported to be effective in reducing the overuse of antibiotics, such as health education, doctor-patient communication, and policies change. Multifaceted interventions were found to be the most effective in reducing the antibiotics overuse.

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Background Previous studies have found that high and cold temperatures increase the risk of childhood diarrhea. However, little is known about whether the within-day variation of temperature has any effect on childhood diarrhea. Methods A Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the relationship between diurnal temperature range and emergency department admissions for diarrhea among children under five years in Brisbane, from 1st January 2003 to 31st December 2009. Results There was a statistically significant relationship between diurnal temperature range and childhood diarrhea. The effect of diurnal temperature range on childhood diarrhea was the greatest at one day lag, with a 3% (95% confidence interval: 2%–5%) increase of emergency department admissions per 1°C increment of diurnal temperature range. Conclusion Within-day variation of temperature appeared to be a risk factor for childhood diarrhea. The incidence of childhood diarrhea may increase if climate variability increases as predicted.

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The recent expansion of prediction markets provides a great opportunity to test the market efficiency hypothesis and the calibration of trader judgements. Using a large database of observed prices, this article studies the calibration of prediction markets prices on sporting events using both nonparametric and parametric methods. While only minor bias can be observed during most of the lifetime of the contracts, the calibration of prices deteriorates very significantly in the last moments of the contracts’ lives. Traders tend to overestimate the probability of the losing team to reverse the situation in the last minutes of the game.

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This study suggests that physical activity is a more important lifestyle modification than sleep to improve cardiovascular risk factors in postmenopausal women; however both lifestyle modifications, including, ensuring sufficient sleep quality and duration and increasing physical activity should be strongly encouraged by menopause practitioners in postmenopausal women care.

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Objective: The aim of this paper is to propose a ‘Perceived barriers and lifestyle risk factor modification model’ that could be incorporated into existing frameworks for diabetes education to enhance lifestyle risk factor education in women. Setting: Diabetes education, community health. Primary argument: ‘Perceived barriers’ is a health promotion concept that has been found to be a significant predictor of health promotion behaviour. There is evidence that women face a range of perceived barriers that prevent them from engaging in healthy lifestyle activities. Despite this, current evidence based models of diabetes education do not explicitly incorporate the concept of perceived barriers. A model of risk factor reduction that incorporates ‘perceived barriers’ is proposed. Conclusion: Although further research is required, current approaches to risk factor reduction in type 2 diabetes could be enhanced by identification and goal setting to reduce an individual’s perceived barriers.

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Background On-site wastewater treatment system (OWTS) siting, design and management has traditionally been based on site specific conditions with little regard to the surrounding environment or the cumulative effect of other systems in the environment. The general approach has been to apply the same framework of standards and regulations to all sites equally, regardless of the sensitivity, or lack thereof, to the receiving environment. Consequently, this has led to the continuing poor performance and failure of on-site systems, resulting in environmental and public health consequences. As a result, there is increasing realisation that more scientifically robust evaluations in regard to site assessment and the underlying ground conditions are needed. Risk-based approaches to on-site system siting, design and management are considered the most appropriate means of improvement to the current standards and codes for on-site wastewater treatment systems. The Project Research in relation to this project was undertaken within the Gold Coast City Council region, the major focus being the semi-urban, rural residential and hinterland areas of the city that are not serviced by centralised treatment systems. The Gold Coast has over 15,000 on-site systems in use, with approximately 66% being common septic tank-subsurface dispersal systems. A recent study evaluating the performance of these systems within the Gold Coast area showed approximately 90% were not meeting the specified guidelines for effluent treatment and dispersal. The main focus of this research was to incorporate strong scientific knowledge into an integrated risk assessment process to allow suitable management practices to be set in place to mitigate the inherent risks. To achieve this, research was undertaken focusing on three main aspects involved with the performance and management of OWTS. Firstly, an investigation into the suitability of soil for providing appropriate effluent renovation was conducted. This involved detailed soil investigations, laboratory analysis and the use of multivariate statistical methods for analysing soil information. The outcomes of these investigations were developed into a framework for assessing soil suitability for effluent renovation. This formed the basis for the assessment of OWTS siting and design risks employed in the developed risk framework. Secondly, an assessment of the environmental and public health risks was performed specifically related the release of contaminants from OWTS. This involved detailed groundwater and surface water sampling and analysis to assess the current and potential risks of contamination throughout the Gold Coast region. Additionally, the assessment of public health risk incorporated the use of bacterial source tracking methods to identify the different sources of fecal contamination within monitored regions. Antibiotic resistance pattern analysis was utilised to determine the extent of human faecal contamination, with the outcomes utilised for providing a more indicative public health assessment. Finally, the outcomes of both the soil suitability assessment and ground and surface water monitoring was utilised for the development of the integrated risk framework. The research outcomes achieved through this project enabled the primary research aims and objects to be accomplished. This in turn would enable Gold Coast City Council to provide more appropriate assessment and management guidelines based on robust scientific knowledge which will ultimately ensure that the potential environmental and public health impacts resulting from on-site wastewater treatment is minimised. As part of the implementation of suitable management strategies, a critical point monitoring program (CPM) was formulated. This entailed the identification of the key critical parameters that contribute to the characterised risks at monitored locations within the study area. The CPM will allow more direct procedures to be implemented, targeting the specific hazards at sensitive areas throughout Gold Coast region.

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Background and Aims: Falls and fall-related injuries result in reduced functioning, loss of independence, premature nursing home admissions and mortality. Malnutrition is associated with falls in the acute setting, but little is known about malnutrition and falls risk in the community. The aim of this study was to assess the association between malnutrition risk, falls risk and falls over a one-year period in community-dwelling older adults. Methods: Two hundred and fifty four subjects >65 years of age were recruited to participate in a study in order to identify risk factors for falls. Malnutrition risk was determined using the Mini Nutritional Assessment–Short Form. Results: 28.6% had experienced a fall and according to the Mini Nutritional Assessment-Short Form 3.9% (n=10) of subjects were at risk of malnutrition. There were no associations between malnutrition risk, the risk of falls, nor actual falls in healthy older adults in the community setting. Conclusions: There was a low prevalence of malnutrition risk in this sample of community-dwelling older adults and no association between nutritional risk and falls. Screening as part of a falls prevention program should focus on the risk of developing malnutrition as this is associated with falls.

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With the advent of large-scale wind farms and their integration into electrical grids, more uncertainties, constraints and objectives must be considered in power system development. It is therefore necessary to introduce risk-control strategies into the planning of transmission systems connected with wind power generators. This paper presents a probability-based multi-objective model equipped with three risk-control strategies. The model is developed to evaluate and enhance the ability of the transmission system to protect against overload risks when wind power is integrated into the power system. The model involves: (i) defining the uncertainties associated with wind power generators with probability measures and calculating the probabilistic power flow with the combined use of cumulants and Gram-Charlier series; (ii) developing three risk-control strategies by specifying the smallest acceptable non-overload probability for each branch and the whole system, and specifying the non-overload margin for all branches in the whole system; (iii) formulating an overload risk index based on the non-overload probability and the non-overload margin defined; and (iv) developing a multi-objective transmission system expansion planning (TSEP) model with the objective functions composed of transmission investment and the overload risk index. The presented work represents a superior risk-control model for TSEP in terms of security, reliability and economy. The transmission expansion planning model with the three risk-control strategies demonstrates its feasibility in the case study using two typical power systems

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Aims: This study investigated the association between the basal (rest) insulin-signaling proteins, Akt, and the Akt substrate AS160, metabolic risk factors, inflammatory markers and aerobic fitness, in middle-aged women with varying numbers of metabolic risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Methods: Sixteen women (n = 16) aged 51.3+/-5.1 (mean +/-SD) years provided muscle biopsies and blood samples at rest. In addition, anthropometric characteristics and aerobic power were assessed and the number of metabolic risk factors for each participant was determined (IDF criteria). Results: The mean number of metabolic risk factors was 1.6+/-1.2. Total Akt was negatively correlated with IL-1 beta (r = -0.45, p = 0.046), IL-6 (r = -0.44, p = 0.052) and TNF-alpha (r = -0.51, p = 0.025). Phosphorylated AS160 was positively correlated with HDL (r = 0.58, p = 0.024) and aerobic fitness (r = 0.51, p = 0.047). Furthermore, a multiple regression analysis revealed that both HDL (t = 2.5, p = 0.032) and VO(2peak) (t = 2.4, p = 0.037) were better predictors for phosphorylated AS160 than TNF-alpha or IL-6 (p>0.05). Conclusions: Elevated inflammatory markers and increased metabolic risk factors may inhibit insulin-signaling protein phosphorylation in middle-aged women, thereby increasing insulin resistance under basal conditions. Furthermore, higher HDL and fitness levels are associated with an increased AS160 phosphorylation, which may in turn reduce insulin resistance.