Short-term traffic volume forecasting : a k-nearest neighbor approach enhanced by constrained linearly sewing principle component algorithm

To enhance the performance of the k-nearest neighbors approach in forecasting short-term traffic volume, this paper proposed and tested a two-step approach with the ability of forecasting multiple steps. In selecting k-nearest neighbors, a time constraint window is introduced, and then local minima of the distances between the state vectors are ranked to avoid overlappings among candidates. Moreover, to control extreme values’ undesirable impact, a novel algorithm with attractive analytical features is developed based on the principle component. The enhanced KNN method has been evaluated using the field data, and our comparison analysis shows that it outperformed the competing algorithms in most cases.

Student focus and prioritization of design parameters in first-year engineering design projects

BACKGROUND Research on engineering design is a core area of concern within engineering education and a fundamental understanding of how engineering students approach and undertake design is necessary in order to develop effective design models and pedagogies. Understanding the factors related to design experiences in education and how they affect student practice can help educators as well as designers to leverage these factors as part of the design process. PURPOSE This study investigated the design practices of first-year engineering students’ and their experiences with a first-year engineering course design project. The research questions that guided the investigation were: 1. From a student perspective, what design parameters or criteria are most important? 2. How does this perspective impact subsequent student design practice throughout the design process? DESIGN/METHOD The authors employed qualitative multi-case study methods (Miles & Huberman, 1994) in order to the answer the research questions. Participant teams were observed and video recorded during team design meetings in which they researched the background for the design problem, brainstormed and sketched possible solutions, as well as built prototypes and final models of their design solutions as part of a course design project. Analysis focused on explanation building (Yin, 2009) and utilized within-case and cross-case analysis (Miles & Huberman, 1994). RESULTS We found that students focused disproportionally on the functional parameter, i.e. the physical implementation of their solution, and the possible/applicable parameter, i.e. a possible and applicable solution that benefited the user, in comparison to other given parameters such as safety and innovativeness. In addition, we found that individual teams focused on the functional and possible/ applicable parameters in early design phases such as brainstorming/ ideation and sketching. When prompted to discuss these non-salient parameters (from the student perspective) in the final design report, student design teams often used a post-hoc justification to support how the final designs fit the parameters that they did not initially consider. CONCLUSIONS This study suggests is that student design teams become fixated on (and consequently prioritize) certain parameters they interpret as important because they feel these parameters were described more explicitly in terms how they were met and assessed. Students fail to consider other parameters, perceived to be less directly assessable, unless prompted to do so. Failure to consider other parameters in the early design phases subsequently affects their approach in design phases as well. Case studies examining students’ study strategies within three Australian Universities illustrate similarities with some student approaches to design.

A feasibility study of multislice x-ray CT imaging of gel dosimeters using the “zero scan” method

This study extends the ‘zero scan’ method for CT imaging of polymer gel dosimeters to include multi-slice acquisitions. Multi slice CT images consisting of 24 slices of 1.2 mm thickness were acquired of an irradiated polymer gel dosimeter, and processed with the zero scan technique. The results demonstrate that zero scan based gel readout can be successfully applied to generate a three dimensional image of the irradiated gel field. Compared to the raw CT images the processed figures and cross gel profiles demonstrated reduced noise and clear visibility of the penumbral region. Moreover these improved results further highlight the suitability of this method in volumetric reconstruction with reduced CT data acquisition per slice. This work shows that 3D volumes of irradiated polymer gel dosimeters can be acquired and processed with x-ray CT.

The nature and correlates of young women's peer-directed protective behavioral strategies

Objective Recently, a number of studies have identified self-employed Protective Behavioral Strategies (PBS) as effective in decreasing the level of alcohol-related harm among young people. However, much of the published research has ignored important gender differences, such as women's increased tendency to rely on PBS that are social in nature. To further the understanding of women's PBS, the current study sought to investigate the nature and correlates of the strategies young women employ to keep their friends safe when drinking (i.e., peer-directed PBS). Method A scale measuring peer-directed PBS was developed and administered in conjunction with existing measures of alcohol consumption, personal PBS, and peer attachment. Participants consisted of 422 women aged 18–30 years, recruited among psychology students and the general public. Results Exploratory factor analysis revealed two clusters of peer-directed PBS; those that were aimed at reducing intoxication among one's friends and those that were designed to minimize alcohol-related harms. Further analysis found a positive relationship between women's tendency to implement personal and peer-directed PBS and that risky drinkers were less likely to engage in personal or peer-directed PBS (either type). Conclusion Findings indicate that personal and peer-directed PBS are related behaviors that are less frequently adopted by risky drinkers.

Applying quantile regression for modeling equivalent property damage only crashes to identify accident blackspots

Hot spot identification (HSID) aims to identify potential sites—roadway segments, intersections, crosswalks, interchanges, ramps, etc.—with disproportionately high crash risk relative to similar sites. An inefficient HSID methodology might result in either identifying a safe site as high risk (false positive) or a high risk site as safe (false negative), and consequently lead to the misuse the available public funds, to poor investment decisions, and to inefficient risk management practice. Current HSID methods suffer from issues like underreporting of minor injury and property damage only (PDO) crashes, challenges of accounting for crash severity into the methodology, and selection of a proper safety performance function to model crash data that is often heavily skewed by a preponderance of zeros. Addressing these challenges, this paper proposes a combination of a PDO equivalency calculation and quantile regression technique to identify hot spots in a transportation network. In particular, issues related to underreporting and crash severity are tackled by incorporating equivalent PDO crashes, whilst the concerns related to the non-count nature of equivalent PDO crashes and the skewness of crash data are addressed by the non-parametric quantile regression technique. The proposed method identifies covariate effects on various quantiles of a population, rather than the population mean like most methods in practice, which more closely corresponds with how black spots are identified in practice. The proposed methodology is illustrated using rural road segment data from Korea and compared against the traditional EB method with negative binomial regression. Application of a quantile regression model on equivalent PDO crashes enables identification of a set of high-risk sites that reflect the true safety costs to the society, simultaneously reduces the influence of under-reported PDO and minor injury crashes, and overcomes the limitation of traditional NB model in dealing with preponderance of zeros problem or right skewed dataset.

HeatWave : a handheld 3D thermography system for energy auditing

Energy auditing is an effective but costly approach for reducing the long-term energy consumption of buildings. When well-executed, energy loss can be quickly identified in the building structure and its subsystems. This then presents opportunities for improving energy efficiency. We present a low-cost, portable technology called "HeatWave" which allows non-experts to generate detailed 3D surface temperature models for energy auditing. This handheld 3D thermography system consists of two commercially available imaging sensors and a set of software algorithms which can be run on a laptop. The 3D model can be visualized in real-time by the operator so that they can monitor their degree of coverage as the sensors are used to capture data. In addition, results can be analyzed offline using the proposed "Spectra" multispectral visualization toolbox. The presence of surface temperature data in the generated 3D model enables the operator to easily identify and measure thermal irregularities such as thermal bridges, insulation leaks, moisture build-up and HVAC faults. Moreover, 3D models generated from subsequent audits of the same environment can be automatically compared to detect temporal changes in conditions and energy use over time.

Tuning the surface structure of nitrogen-doped TiO2Nanofibres : an effective method to rnhance photocatalytic activities of visible-light-driven green synthesis and degradation

Nitrogen-doped TiO2 nanofibres of anatase and TiO2(B) phases were synthesised by a reaction between titanate nanofibres of a layered structure and gaseous NH3 at 400–700 °C, following a different mechanism than that for the direct nitrogen doping from TiO2. The surface of the N-doped TiO2 nanofibres can be tuned by facial calcination in air to remove the surface-bonded N species, whereas the core remains N doped. N-Doped TiO2 nanofibres, only after calcination in air, became effective photocatalysts for the decomposition of sulforhodamine B under visible-light irradiation. The surface-oxidised surface layer was proven to be very effective for organic molecule adsorption, and the activation of oxygen molecules, whereas the remaining N-doped interior of the fibres strongly absorbed visible light, resulting in the generation of electrons and holes. The N-doped nanofibres were also used as supports of gold nanoparticle (Au NP) photocatalysts for visible-light-driven hydroamination of phenylacetylene with aniline. Phenylacetylene was activated on the N-doped surface of the nanofibres and aniline on the Au NPs. The Au NPs adsorbed on N-doped TiO2(B) nanofibres exhibited much better conversion (80 % of phenylacetylene) than when adsorbed on undoped fibres (46 %) at 40 °C and 95 % of the product is the desired imine. The surface N species can prevent the adsorption of O2 that is unfavourable for the hydroamination reaction, and thus, improve the photocatalytic activity. Removal of the surface N species resulted in a sharp decrease of the photocatalytic activity. These photocatalysts are feasible for practical applications, because they can be easily dispersed into solution and separated from a liquid by filtration, sedimentation or centrifugation due to their fibril morphology.

Numerical modelling of load bearing light gauge steel frame wall systems exposed to realistic design fires

Fire safety has become an important part in structural design due to the ever increasing loss of properties and lives during fires. Conventionally the fire rating of load bearing wall systems made of Light gauge Steel Frames (LSF) is determined using fire tests based on the standard time-temperature curve in ISO834 [1]. However, modern commercial and residential buildings make use of thermoplastic materials, which mean considerably high fuel loads. Hence a detailed fire research study into the fire performance of LSF walls was undertaken using realistic design fire curves developed based on Eurocode parametric [2] and Barnett’s BFD [3] curves using both full scale fire tests and numerical studies. It included LSF walls without cavity insulation, and the recently developed externally insulated composite panel system. This paper presents the details of finite element models developed to simulate the full scale fire tests of LSF wall panels under realistic design fires. Finite element models of LSF walls exposed to realistic design fires were developed, and analysed under both transient and steady state fire conditions using the measured stud time-temperature curves. Transient state analyses were performed to simulate fire test conditions while steady state analyses were performed to obtain the load ratio versus time and failure temperature curves of LSF walls. Details of the developed finite element models and the results including the axial deformation and lateral deflection versus time curves, and the stud failure modes and times are presented in this paper. Comparison with fire test results demonstrate the ability of developed finite element models to predict the performance and fire resistance ratings of LSF walls under realistic design fires.

Critical success factors for the implementation of a knowledge management system in a knowledge-based engineering firm

This research identifies factors that are crucial to the success of a knowledge management system (KMS) implementation in a prominent Australian engineering consultancy firm. The study employs the Delphi method to solicit the opinions of experienced market leaders in the Australian construction industry, and then benchmarks the organisational profile of the consultancy firm against the Delphi findings. From this comparative case study, recommendations are made pertaining to the organisational and cultural changes required within the consultancy firm in order to improve its readiness to successfully implement a KMS.

Prediction of CO concentrations based on a hybrid Partial Least Square and Support Vector Machine model

Due to the health impacts caused by exposures to air pollutants in urban areas, monitoring and forecasting of air quality parameters have become popular as an important topic in atmospheric and environmental research today. The knowledge on the dynamics and complexity of air pollutants behavior has made artificial intelligence models as a useful tool for a more accurate pollutant concentration prediction. This paper focuses on an innovative method of daily air pollution prediction using combination of Support Vector Machine (SVM) as predictor and Partial Least Square (PLS) as a data selection tool based on the measured values of CO concentrations. The CO concentrations of Rey monitoring station in the south of Tehran, from Jan. 2007 to Feb. 2011, have been used to test the effectiveness of this method. The hourly CO concentrations have been predicted using the SVM and the hybrid PLS–SVM models. Similarly, daily CO concentrations have been predicted based on the aforementioned four years measured data. Results demonstrated that both models have good prediction ability; however the hybrid PLS–SVM has better accuracy. In the analysis presented in this paper, statistic estimators including relative mean errors, root mean squared errors and the mean absolute relative error have been employed to compare performances of the models. It has been concluded that the errors decrease after size reduction and coefficients of determination increase from 56 to 81% for SVM model to 65–85% for hybrid PLS–SVM model respectively. Also it was found that the hybrid PLS–SVM model required lower computational time than SVM model as expected, hence supporting the more accurate and faster prediction ability of hybrid PLS–SVM model.

A deconvolution method for deriving the transit time spectrum for ultrasound propagation through cancellous bone replica models

The acceptance of broadband ultrasound attenuation for the assessment of osteoporosis suffers from a limited understanding of ultrasound wave propagation through cancellous bone. It has recently been proposed that the ultrasound wave propagation can be described by a concept of parallel sonic rays. This concept approximates the detected transmission signal to be the superposition of all sonic rays that travel directly from transmitting to receiving transducer. The transit time of each ray is defined by the proportion of bone and marrow propagated. An ultrasound transit time spectrum describes the proportion of sonic rays having a particular transit time, effectively describing lateral inhomogeneity of transit times over the surface of the receiving ultrasound transducer. The aim of this study was to provide a proof of concept that a transit time spectrum may be derived from digital deconvolution of input and output ultrasound signals. We have applied the active-set method deconvolution algorithm to determine the ultrasound transit time spectra in the three orthogonal directions of four cancellous bone replica samples and have compared experimental data with the prediction from the computer simulation. The agreement between experimental and predicted ultrasound transit time spectrum analyses derived from Bland–Altman analysis ranged from 92% to 99%, thereby supporting the concept of parallel sonic rays for ultrasound propagation in cancellous bone. In addition to further validation of the parallel sonic ray concept, this technique offers the opportunity to consider quantitative characterisation of the material and structural properties of cancellous bone, not previously available utilising ultrasound.

Estimation of biodiesel properties from chemical composition – An artificial neural network (ANN) approach

Biodiesel, produced from renewable feedstock represents a more sustainable source of energy and will therefore play a significant role in providing the energy requirements for transportation in the near future. Chemically, all biodiesels are fatty acid methyl esters (FAME), produced from raw vegetable oil and animal fat. However, clear differences in chemical structure are apparent from one feedstock to the next in terms of chain length, degree of unsaturation, number of double bonds and double bond configuration-which all determine the fuel properties of biodiesel. In this study, prediction models were developed to estimate kinematic viscosity of biodiesel using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) modelling technique. While developing the model, 27 parameters based on chemical composition commonly found in biodiesel were used as the input variables and kinematic viscosity of biodiesel was used as output variable. Necessary data to develop and simulate the network were collected from more than 120 published peer reviewed papers. The Neural Networks Toolbox of MatLab R2012a software was used to train, validate and simulate the ANN model on a personal computer. The network architecture and learning algorithm were optimised following a trial and error method to obtain the best prediction of the kinematic viscosity. The predictive performance of the model was determined by calculating the coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared (RMS) and maximum average error percentage (MAEP) between predicted and experimental results. This study found high predictive accuracy of the ANN in predicting fuel properties of biodiesel and has demonstrated the ability of the ANN model to find a meaningful relationship between biodiesel chemical composition and fuel properties. Therefore the model developed in this study can be a useful tool to accurately predict biodiesel fuel properties instead of undertaking costly and time consuming experimental tests.

Demand-side response model to avoid spike of electricity price

The aim of this work is to develop a demand-side-response model, which assists electricity consumers exposed to the market price to independently and proactively manage air-conditioning peak electricity demand. The main contribution of this research is to show how consumers can optimize the energy cost caused by the air conditioning load considering to several cases e.g. normal price, spike price, and the probability of a price spike case. This model also investigated how air-conditioning applies a pre-cooling method when there is a substantial risk of a price spike. The results indicate the potential of the scheme to achieve financial benefits for consumers and target the best economic performance for electrical generation distribution and transmission. The model was tested with Queensland electricity market data from the Australian Energy Market Operator and Brisbane temperature data from the Bureau of Statistics regarding hot days from 2011 to 2012.

Loss reduction planning in electric distribution networks of IRAN until 2025

In this paper, a loss reduction planning in electric distribution networks is presented based on the successful experiences in distribution utilities of IRAN and some developed countries. The necessary technical and economical parameters of planning are calculated from related projects in IRAN. Cost, time, and benefits of every sub-program including seven loss reduction approaches are determined. Finally, the loss reduction program, the benefit per cost, and the return of investment in optimistic and pessimistic conditions are introduced.

Load profile based determination of distribution feeder configuration by dynamic programming

This paper presents a new method to determine feeder reconfiguration scheme considering variable load profile. The objective function consists of system losses, reliability costs and also switching costs. In order to achieve an optimal solution the proposed method compares these costs dynamically and determines when and how it is reasonable to have a switching operation. The proposed method divides a year into several equal time periods, then using particle swarm optimization (PSO), optimal candidate configurations for each period are obtained. System losses and customer interruption cost of each configuration during each period is also calculated. Then, considering switching cost from a configuration to another one, dynamic programming algorithm (DPA) is used to determine the annual reconfiguration scheme. Several test systems were used to validate the proposed method. The obtained results denote that to have an optimum solution it is necessary to compare operation costs dynamically.