Scenario planning and emerging global trends for the future of roads and automobile transport

Roads and road infrastructure will be faced with multiple challenges over the coming decades – challenges that in many ways bear little resemblance to those previously faced - and as such will require new approaches. The opportunity exists to transform the way road infrastructure is conceived and constructed, as a key part of the process of assisting society to respond to climate change and reduce other environmental pressures. Innovations in road construction, use and management in order to manage these changes can now be seen. Scenario planning is one tool that can take into account emerging challenges, develop or adopt new approaches, and thus help this transformation to occur. The paper explores scenario planning methodologies, global innovations and trends in road construction and maintenance and the findings from stakeholder workshops in Brisbane and Perth. It highlights key opportunities for road agencies to use scenarios to enable planning that, in the face of future uncertainties, facilitates appropriate responses.

Incident reporting culture in recreational hot air ballooning

Hot air ballooning incidents are relatively rare; however, they have a high potential to be fatal. In order to inform appropriate safety interventions it is first necessary to understand the causal factors which lead to incidents and near-misses, which requires a formal incident report database. The Australian Balloon Federation (ABF) advocates the reporting of recreational hot air ballooning incidents, by reporting directly to the ABF safety officer or by completing an online incident report form. The objective of this paper is to understand how widely used the reporting system is and whether there are any perceived barriers to reporting. Sixty-nine balloonists participated in an online survey about their experience of incident reporting. Survey respondents were mostly male (11 female), experienced balloonists (mean years’ experience ballooning 19.51y with a SD 11.19). Sixty respondents (87%) held a pilot license. The majority (82.6%) of respondents were aware of the ABF incident reporting system. Over half (62.3%) had been involved in a ballooning incident or near-miss in Australia. However, 40% of those who had an incident or near-miss did not report it to the ABF and only 15.9% of all those surveyed had used the online incident report form. There was some disagreement regarding when it was appropriate to report an incident or near miss. Some respondents felt an incident or near miss should only be reported if it resulted in injury or damage, while others said near-misses should also be reported. The most frequent barriers identified were: a lack of understanding of when to report to the ABF; trivializing of incidents; and concerns about the system itself Steps should be taken to increase understanding of the system purpose and long term benefits. Specifically, reporting near-misses should be encouraged. This study is significant because it is the first to examine reporting practices in non-motorised recreational aviation.

Associations between individual socioeconomic position, neighbourhood disadvantage, and transport mode: Baseline results from the HABITAT multilevel study

Background Understanding how different socioeconomic indicators are associated with transport modes provide insight into which interventions might contribute to reducing socioeconomic inequalities in health. The purpose of this study was to examine associations between neighbourhood-level socioeconomic disadvantage, individual-level socioeconomic position (SEP) and usual transport mode. Methods This investigation included 11,036 residents from 200 neighbourhoods in Brisbane, Australia. Respondents self-reported their usual transport mode (car or motorbike, public transport, walking or cycling). Indicators for individual-level SEP were education, occupation, and household income; and neighbourhood disadvantage was measured using a census-derived index. Data were analysed using multilevel multinomial logistic regression. High SEP respondents and residents of the most advantaged neighbourhoods who used a private motor vehicle as their usual form of transport was the reference category. Results Compared with driving a motor vehicle, the odds of using public transport were higher for white collar employees (OR1.68, 95%CrI 1.41-2.01), members of lower income households (OR 1.71 95%CrI 1.25-2.30), and residents of more disadvantaged neighbourhoods (OR 1.93, 95%CrI 1.46-2.54); and lower for respondents with a certificate-level education (OR 0.60, 95%CrI 0.49-0.74) and blue collar workers (OR 0.63, 95%CrI 0.50-0.81). The odds of walking for transport were higher for the least educated (OR 1.58, 95%CrI 1.18-2.11), those not in the labour force (OR 1.94, 95%CrI 1.38-2.72), members of lower income households (OR 2.10, 95%CrI 1.23-3.64), and residents of more disadvantaged neighbourhoods (OR 2.73, 95%CrI 1.46-5.24). The odds of cycling were lower among less educated groups (OR 0.31, 95% CrI 0.19-0.48). Conclusion The relationships between socioeconomic characteristics and transport modes are complex, and provide challenges for those attempting to encourage active forms of transportation. Further work is required exploring the individual- and neighbourhood-level mechanisms behind transport mode choice, and what factors might influence individuals from different socioeconomic backgrounds to change to more active transport modes.

An efficient hole transport material composite based on poly(3-hexylthiophene) and bamboo-structured carbon nanotubes for high performance perovskite solar cells

In this work, we have developed a new efficient hole transport material (HTM) composite based on poly(3- hexylthiophene) (P3HT) and bamboo-structured carbon nanotubes (BCNs) for CH3NH3PbI3 (MAPbI3) based perovskite solar cells. Compared to pristine P3HT, it is found that the crystallinity of P3HT was significantly improved by addition of BCNs, which led to over one order of magnitude higher conductivity for the composite containing 1–2 wt% BCNs in P3HT. In the meantime, the interfacial charge transfer between the MAPbI3 light absorbing layer and the HTM composite layer based on P3HT/BCNs was two-fold faster than pristine P3HT. More importantly, the HTM film with a superior morphological structure consisting of closely compact large grains was achieved with the composite containing 1 wt% BCNs in P3HT. The study by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy has confirmed that the electron recombination in the solar cells was reduced nearly ten-fold with the addition of 1 wt% carbon nanotubes in the HTM composite. Owing to the superior HTM film morphology and the significantly reduced charge recombination, the energy conversion efficiency of the perovskite solar cells increased from 3.6% for pristine P3HT to 8.3% for P3HT/(1 wt% BCNs) with a significantly enhanced open circuit voltage (Voc) and fill factor (FF). The findings of this work are important for development of new HTM for high performance perovskite solar cells.

An investigation of Nano-particle deposition in cylindrical tubes under Laminar condition using Lagrangian transport model

Aerosol deposition in cylindrical tubes is a subject of interest to researchers and engineers in many applications of aerosol physics and metrology. Investigation of nano-particles in different aspects such as lungs, upper airways, batteries and vehicle exhaust gases is vital due the smaller size, adverse health effect and higher trouble for trapping than the micro-particles. The Lagrangian particle tracking provides an effective method for simulating the deposition of nano-particles as well as micro-particles as it accounts for the particle inertia effect as well as the Brownian excitation. However, using the Lagrangian approach for simulating ultrafine particles has been limited due to computational cost and numerical difficulties. In this paper, the deposition of nano-particles in cylindrical tubes under laminar condition is studied using the Lagrangian particle tracking method. The commercial Fluent software is used to simulate the fluid flow in the pipes and to study the deposition and dispersion of nano-particles. Different particle diameters as well as different flow rates are examined. The point analysis in a uniform flow is performed for validating the Brownian motion. The results show good agreement between the calculated deposition efficiency and the analytic correlations in the literature. Furthermore, for the nano-particles with the diameter more than 40 nm, the calculated deposition efficiency by the Lagrangian method is less than the analytic correlations based on Eulerian method due to statistical error or the inertia effect.

Charge transport studies in donor-acceptor block copolymer PDPP-TNT and PC71BM based inverted organic photovoltaic devices processed in room conditions

Diketopyrrolopyrole-naphthalene polymer (PDPP-TNT), a donor-acceptor co-polymer, has shown versatile behavior demonstrating high performances in organic field-effect transistors (OFETs) and organic photovoltaic (OPV) devices. In this paper we report investigation of charge carrier dynamics in PDPP-TNT, and [6,6]-phenyl C71 butyric acid methyl ester (PC71BM) bulk-heterojunction based inverted OPV devices using current density-voltage (J-V) characteristics, space charge limited current (SCLC) measurements, capacitance-voltage (C-V) characteristics, and impedance spectroscopy (IS). OPV devices in inverted architecture, ITO/ZnO/PDPP-TNT:PC71BM/MoO3/Ag, are processed and characterized at room conditions. The power conversion efficiency (PCE) of these devices are measured ∼3.8%, with reasonably good fill-factor 54.6%. The analysis of impedance spectra exhibits electron’s mobility ∼2 × 10−3 cm2V−1s−1, and lifetime in the range of 0.03-0.23 ms. SCLC measurements give hole mobility of 1.12 × 10−5 cm2V−1s−1, and electron mobility of 8.7 × 10−4 cm2V−1s−1.

Nanosheets Co3O4 interleaved with graphene for highly efficient oxygen reduction

Efficient yet inexpensive electrocatalysts for oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) are an essential component of renewable energy devices, such as fuel cells and metal-air batteries. We herein interleaved novel Co3O4 nanosheets with graphene to develop a first ever sheet-on-sheet heterostructured electrocatalyst for ORR, whose electrocatalytic activity outperformed the state-of-the-art commercial Pt/C with exceptional durability in alkaline solution. The composite demonstrates the highest activity of all the nonprecious metal electrocatalysts, such as those derived from Co3O4 nanoparticle/nitrogen-doped graphene hybrids and carbon nanotube/nanoparticle composites. Density functional theory (DFT) calculations indicated that the outstanding performance originated from the significant charge transfer from graphene to Co3O4 nanosheets promoting the electron transport through the whole structure. Theoretical calculations revealed that the enhanced stability can be ascribed to the strong interaction generated between both types of sheets.

Whole-body cryotherapy (extreme cold air exposure) for preventing and treating muscle soreness after exercise in adults

Background Recovery strategies are often usedwith the intention of preventing orminimisingmuscle soreness after exercise. Whole-body cryotherapy, which involves a single or repeated exposure(s) to extremely cold dry air (below -100 °C) in a specialised chamber or cabin for two to four minutes per exposure, is currently being advocated as an effective intervention to reduce muscle soreness after exercise. Objectives To assess the effects (benefits and harms) of whole-body cryotherapy (extreme cold air exposure) for preventing and treating muscle soreness after exercise in adults. Search methods We searched the Cochrane Bone, Joint and Muscle Trauma Group Specialised Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, the British Nursing Index and the Physiotherapy Evidence Database. We also searched the reference lists of articles, trial registers and conference proceedings, handsearched journals and contacted experts. The searches were run in August 2015. Selection criteria We aimed to include randomised and quasi-randomised trials that compared the use of whole-body cryotherapy (WBC) versus a passive or control intervention (rest, no treatment or placebo treatment) or active interventions including cold or contrast water immersion, active recovery and infrared therapy for preventing or treating muscle soreness after exercise in adults. We also aimed to include randomised trials that compared different durations or dosages of WBC. Our prespecified primary outcomes were muscle soreness, subjective recovery (e.g. tiredness, well-being) and adverse effects. Data collection and analysis Two review authors independently screened search results, selected studies, assessed risk of bias and extracted and cross-checked data. Where appropriate, we pooled results of comparable trials. The random-effects model was used for pooling where there was substantial heterogeneity.We assessed the quality of the evidence using GRADE. Main results Four laboratory-based randomised controlled trials were included. These reported results for 64 physically active predominantly young adults (mean age 23 years). All but four participants were male. Two trials were parallel group trials (44 participants) and two were cross-over trials (20 participants). The trials were heterogeneous, including the type, temperature, duration and frequency of WBC, and the type of preceding exercise. None of the trials reported active surveillance of predefined adverse events. All four trials had design features that carried a high risk of bias, potentially limiting the reliability of their findings. The evidence for all outcomes was classified as ’very low’ quality based on the GRADE criteria. Two comparisons were tested: WBC versus control (rest or no WBC), tested in four studies; and WBC versus far-infrared therapy, also tested in one study. No studies compared WBC with other active interventions, such as cold water immersion, or different types and applications of WBC. All four trials compared WBC with rest or no WBC. There was very low quality evidence for lower self-reported muscle soreness (pain at rest) scores after WBC at 1 hour (standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) -1.42 to -0.12; 20 participants, 2 cross-over trials); 24 hours (SMD -0.57, 95%CI -1.48 to 0.33) and 48 hours (SMD -0.58, 95% CI -1.37 to 0.21), both with 38 participants, 2 cross-over studies, 1 parallel group study; and 72 hours (SMD -0.65, 95% CI -2.54 to 1.24; 29 participants, 1 cross-over study, 1 parallel group study). Of note is that the 95% CIs also included either no between-group differences or a benefit in favour of the control group. One small cross-over trial (9 participants) found no difference in tiredness but better well-being after WBC at 24 hours post exercise. There was no report of adverse events. One small cross-over trial involving nine well-trained runners provided very low quality evidence of lower levels of muscle soreness after WBC, when compared with infrared therapy, at 1 hour follow-up, but not at 24 or 48 hours. The same trial found no difference in well-being but less tiredness after WBC at 24 hours post exercise. There was no report of adverse events. Authors’ conclusions There is insufficient evidence to determine whether whole-body cryotherapy (WBC) reduces self-reportedmuscle soreness, or improves subjective recovery, after exercise compared with passive rest or no WBC in physically active young adult males. There is no evidence on the use of this intervention in females or elite athletes. The lack of evidence on adverse events is important given that the exposure to extreme temperature presents a potential hazard. Further high-quality, well-reported research in this area is required and must provide detailed reporting of adverse events.

The political decisions and policy leading to the Royal Australian Air Force having no fighters or interceptors for the coming war against Japan

The thesis provides an understanding of the ignored need for a modern air defence system for the Australian air force to meet the growing threat from Japan in the 1930s and early 1940s. The quality of advice provided to, and accepted by, Australian politicians was misleading and eliminated the need for fighters and interceptors despite glaring evidence to the contrary. Based on primary source material, including official documents, Allied and Axis pilot memoirs, popular aviation literature and newspaper and magazine articles and interviews, the thesis highlights the inability of Australian politicians to face the reality of the international situation.

On the mathematical modeling of wound healing angiogenesis in skin as a reaction-transport process

Over the last 30 years, numerous research groups have attempted to provide mathematical descriptions of the skin wound healing process. The development of theoretical models of the interlinked processes that underlie the healing mechanism has yielded considerable insight into aspects of this critical phenomenon that remain difficult to investigate empirically. In particular, the mathematical modeling of angiogenesis, i.e., capillary sprout growth, has offered new paradigms for the understanding of this highly complex and crucial step in the healing pathway. With the recent advances in imaging and cell tracking, the time is now ripe for an appraisal of the utility and importance of mathematical modeling in wound healing angiogenesis research. The purpose of this review is to pedagogically elucidate the conceptual principles that have underpinned the development of mathematical descriptions of wound healing angiogenesis, specifically those that have utilized a continuum reaction-transport framework, and highlight the contribution that such models have made toward the advancement of research in this field. We aim to draw attention to the common assumptions made when developing models of this nature, thereby bringing into focus the advantages and limitations of this approach. A deeper integration of mathematical modeling techniques into the practice of wound healing angiogenesis research promises new perspectives for advancing our knowledge in this area. To this end we detail several open problems related to the understanding of wound healing angiogenesis, and outline how these issues could be addressed through closer cross-disciplinary collaboration.

Transition to an unsteady flow induced by a fin on the sidewall of a differentially heated air-filled square cavity and heat transfer

The transition from a steady to an unsteady flow induced by an adiabatic fin on the sidewall of a differentially heated air-filled cavity is numerically investigated. Numerical simulations have been performed over the range of Rayleigh numbers from Ra = 105–109. The temporal development and spatial structures of natural convection flows in the cavity with a fin are described. It has been demonstrated that the fin may induce the transition to an unsteady flow and the critical Rayleigh number for the occurrence of the transition is between 3.72 × 106 and 3.73 × 106. Furthermore, the peak frequencies of the oscillations triggered by different mechanisms are obtained through spectral analysis. It has been found that the flow rate through the cavity with a fin is larger than that without a fin under the unsteady flow, indicating that the fin may improve the unsteady flow in the cavity.

The role of tunnel junction resistances and defects on electron transport mechanism in networks of two-dimensional disordered conductors

The effect of tunnel junction resistances on the electronic property and the magneto-resistance of few-layer graphene sheet networks is investigated. By decreasing the tunnel junction resistances, transition from strong localization to weak localization occurs and magneto-resistance changes from positive to negative. It is shown that the positive magneto-resistance is due to Zeeman splitting of the electronic states at the Fermi level as it changes with the bias voltage. As the tunnel junction resistances decrease, the network resistance is well described by 2D weak localization model. Sensitivity of the magneto-resistance to the bias voltage becomes negligible and diminishes with increasing temperature. It is shown 2D weak localization effect mainly occurs inside of the few-layer graphene sheets and the minimum temperature of 5 K in our experiments is not sufficiently low to allow us to observe 2D weak localization effect of the networks as it occurs in 2D disordered metal films. Furthermore, defects inside the few-layer graphene sheets have negligible effect on the resistance of the networks which have small tunnel junction resistances between few-layer graphene sheets

Development and validation of a multilevel model for predicting workload under routine and nonroutine conditions in an air traffic management center

Objective: The aim of this study was to develop a model capable of predicting variability in the mental workload experienced by frontline operators under routine and nonroutine conditions. Background: Excess workload is a risk that needs to be managed in safety-critical industries. Predictive models are needed to manage this risk effectively yet are difficult to develop. Much of the difficulty stems from the fact that workload prediction is a multilevel problem. Method: A multilevel workload model was developed in Study 1 with data collected from an en route air traffic management center. Dynamic density metrics were used to predict variability in workload within and between work units while controlling for variability among raters. The model was cross-validated in Studies 2 and 3 with the use of a high-fidelity simulator. Results: Reported workload generally remained within the bounds of the 90% prediction interval in Studies 2 and 3. Workload crossed the upper bound of the prediction interval only under nonroutine conditions. Qualitative analyses suggest that nonroutine events caused workload to cross the upper bound of the prediction interval because the controllers could not manage their workload strategically. Conclusion: The model performed well under both routine and nonroutine conditions and over different patterns of workload variation. Application: Workload prediction models can be used to support both strategic and tactical workload management. Strategic uses include the analysis of historical and projected workflows and the assessment of staffing needs. Tactical uses include the dynamic reallocation of resources to meet changes in demand.

Mortality reduction following the air pollution control measures during the 2010 Asian Games

Though increased particulate air pollution has been consistently associated with elevated mortality, evidence regarding whether diminished particulate air pollution would lead to mortality reduction is limited. Citywide air pollution mitigation program during the 2010 Asian Games in Guangzhou, China, provided such an opportunity. Daily mortality from non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases was compared for 51 intervention days (November 1–December 21) in 2010 with the same calendar date of baseline years (2006–2009 and 2011). Relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were estimated using a time series Poisson model, adjusting for day of week, public holidays, daily mean temperature and relative humidity. Daily PM10 (particle with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm) decreased from 88.64 μg/m3 during the baseline period to 80.61 μg/m3 during the Asian Games period. Other measured air pollutants and weather variables did not differ substantially. Daily mortality from non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases decreased from 32, 11 and 6 during the baseline period to 25, 8 and 5 during the Games period, the corresponding RR for the Games period compared with the baseline period was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.73–0.86), 0.77 (95% CI: 0.66–0.89) and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.57–0.80), respectively. No significant decreases were observed in other months of 2010 in Guangzhou and intervention period in two control cities. This finding supports the efforts to reduce air pollution and improve public health through transportation restriction and industrial emission control.

The production mechanisms of OH radicals in a pulsed direct current plasma jet

The production mechanism of OH radicals in a pulsed DC plasma jet is studied by a two-dimensional (2-D) plasma jet model and a one-dimensional (1-D) discharge model. For the plasma jet in the open air, electron-impact dissociation of H2O, electron neutralization of H2O+, as well as dissociation of H2O by O(1D) are found to be the main reactions to generate the OH species. The contribution of the dissociation of H2O by electron is more than the others. The additions of N2, O2, air, and H2O into the working gas increase the OH density outside the tube slightly, which is attributed to more electrons produced by Penning ionization. On the other hand, the additions of O2 and H2O into the working gas increase the OH density inside the tube substantially, which is attributed to the increased O (1D) and H2O concentration, respectively. The gas flow will transport high density OH out of the tube during pulse off period. It is also shown that the plasma chemistry and reactivity can be effectively controlled by the pulse numbers. These results are supported by the laser induced fluorescence measurements and are relevant to several applications of atmospheric-pressure plasmas in health care, medicine, and materials processing.