Complex Symbolic Sequence Encodings for Predictive Monitoring of Business Processes

This paper addresses the problem of predicting the outcome of an ongoing case of a business process based on event logs. In this setting, the outcome of a case may refer for example to the achievement of a performance objective or the fulfillment of a compliance rule upon completion of the case. Given a log consisting of traces of completed cases, given a trace of an ongoing case, and given two or more possible out- comes (e.g., a positive and a negative outcome), the paper addresses the problem of determining the most likely outcome for the case in question. Previous approaches to this problem are largely based on simple symbolic sequence classification, meaning that they extract features from traces seen as sequences of event labels, and use these features to construct a classifier for runtime prediction. In doing so, these approaches ignore the data payload associated to each event. This paper approaches the problem from a different angle by treating traces as complex symbolic sequences, that is, sequences of events each carrying a data payload. In this context, the paper outlines different feature encodings of complex symbolic sequences and compares their predictive accuracy on real-life business process event logs.

Using axially loaded MRI to investigate the biomechanics of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis

Introduction. Spinal flexibility measurement is an important aspect of pre-operative clinical assessment in the treatment of Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis (AIS). Clinically, curve flexibility is a combined measure for all vertebral levels. We propose that in vivo flexibility for individual spinal joints could provide valuable additional information in planning treatment for scoliosis. Methods. Individual spinal joint flexibility in the coronal plane was measured for a series of AIS patients using axially loaded magnetic resonance imaging. Each patient underwent magnetic resonance imaging in the supine position, with no axial load, and then following application of an axial compressive load equal to half the patient’s bodyweight. Coronal plane disc wedge angles in the unloaded and loaded configurations were measured. Joint moments exerted by the axial compressive load were used to derive estimates of individual joint compliance. Results. Fifteen AIS patients were included in the study (mean clinical Cobb angle 46 degrees, mean age 15.3 years). Mean intra-observer measurement error for endplate inclination was 1.6˚. The mean increase in measured major Cobb angle between unloaded and loaded scans was 7.6˚. For certain spinal levels (+2,+1,-2 relative to the apex) there was a statistically significant relationship between change in wedge angle under load and initial wedge angle, such that initially highly wedged discs demonstrated a smaller change in wedge angle than less wedged discs. Highly wedged discs were observed near the apex of the curve, which corresponded to lower joint compliance in the apical region. Conclusion. Approaches such as this can provide valuable biomechanical data on in vivo spinal biomechanics in AIS. Knowledge of individual joint flexibility may assist surgeons to determine which spinal procedure is most appropriate for a patient, which levels should be included in a spinal fusion and the relative mobility of individual joints in the deformed region of the spine.

A process mining-based investigation of adverse events in care processes

This paper proposes the Clinical Pathway Analysis Method (CPAM) approach that enables the extraction of valuable organisational and medical information on past clinical pathway executions from the event logs of healthcare information systems. The method deals with the complexity of real-world clinical pathways by introducing a perspective-based segmentation of the date-stamped event log. CPAM enables the clinical pathway analyst to effectively and efficiently acquire a profound insight into the clinical pathways. By comparing the specific medical conditions of patients with the factors used for characterising the different clinical pathway variants, the medical expert can identify the best therapeutic option. Process mining-based analytics enables the acquisition of valuable insights into clinical pathways, based on the complete audit traces of previous clinical pathway instances. Additionally, the methodology is suited to assess guideline compliance and analyse adverse events. Finally, the methodology provides support for eliciting tacit knowledge and providing treatment selection assistance.

Costing the Australian National Hand Hygiene Initiative

Background The Australian National Hand Hygiene Initiative (NHHI) is a major patient safety programme co-ordinated by Hand Hygiene Australia (HHA) and funded by the Australian Commission for Safety and Quality in Health Care. The annual costs of running this programme need to be understood to know the cost-effectiveness of a decision to sustain it as part of health services. Aim To estimate the annual health services cost of running the NHHI; the set-up costs are excluded. Methods A health services perspective was adopted for the costing and collected data from the 50 largest public hospitals in Australia that implemented the initiative, covering all states and territories. The costs of HHA, the costs to the state-level infection-prevention groups, the costs incurred by each acute hospital, and the costs for additional alcohol-based hand rub are all included. Findings The programme cost AU$5.56 million each year (US$5.76, £3.63 million). Most of the cost is incurred at the hospital level (65%) and arose from the extra time taken for auditing hand hygiene compliance and doing education and training. On average, each infection control practitioner spent 5 h per week on the NHHI, and the running cost per annum to their hospital was approximately AU$120,000 in 2012 (US$124,000, £78,000). Conclusion Good estimates of the total costs of this programme are fundamental to understanding the cost-effectiveness of implementing the NHHI. This paper reports transparent costing methods, and the results include their uncertainty.

Risedronate in adults with osteogenesis imperfecta type I: Increased bone mineral density and decreased bone turnover, but high fracture rate persists

Summary Bisphosphonates can increase bone mineral density (BMD) in children with osteogenesis imperfecta (OI). In this study of adults with OI type I, risedronate increased BMD at lumbar spine (but not total hip) and decreased bone turnover. However, the fracture rate in these patients remained high. Introduction Intravenous bisphosphonates given to children with OI can increase BMD and reduce fracture incidence. Oral and/or intravenous bisphosphonates may have similar effects in adults with OI. We completed an observational study of the effect of risedronate in adults with OI type I. Methods Thirty-two adults (mean age, 39 years) with OI type I were treated with risedronate (total dose, 35 mg weekly) for 24 months. Primary outcome measures were BMD changes at lumbar spine (LS) and total hip (TH). Secondary outcome measures were fracture incidence, bone pain, and change in bone turnover markers (serum procollagen type I aminopropeptide (P1NP) and bone ALP). A meta-analysis of published studies of oral bisphosphonates in adults and children with OI was performed. Results Twenty-seven participants (ten males and seventeen females) completed the study. BMD increased at LS by 3.9% (0.815 vs. 0.846 g/cm 2, p=0.007; mean Z-score, -1.93 vs. -1.58, p=0.002), with no significant change at TH. P1NP fell by 37% (p=0.00041), with no significant change in bone ALP (p=0.15). Bone pain did not change significantly (p=0.6). Fracture incidence remained high, with 25 clinical fractures and 10 major fractures in fourteen participants (0.18 major fractures per person per year), with historical data of 0.12 fractures per person per year. The meta-analysis did not demonstrate a significant difference in fracture incidence in patients with OI treated with oral bisphosphonates. Conclusions Risedronate in adults with OI type I results in modest but significant increases in BMD at LS, and decreased bone turnover. However, this may be insufficient to make a clinically significant difference to fracture incidence.

Permissions in Deontic Event-Calculus

Permissions are special case of deontic effects and play important role compliance. Essentially they are used to determine the obligations or prohibitions to contrary. A formal language e.g., temporal logic, event-calculus et., not able to represent permissions is doomed to be unable to represent most of the real-life legal norms. In this paper we address this issue and extend deontic-event-calculus (DEC) with new predicates for modelling permissions enabling it to elegantly capture the intuition of real-life cases of permissions.

Evidence-based recommendations for the monitoring and treatment of ankylosing spondylitis: Results from the Australian 3E initiative in rheumatology

Aim: To develop a set of Australian recommendations for the monitoring and treatment of ankylosing spondylitis (AS) through systematic literature review combined with the opinion of practicing rheumatologists. Methods: A set of eight questions, four in each domain of monitoring and treatment, were formulated by voting and the Delphi method. The results of a systematic literature review addressing each question were presented to the 23 participants of the Australian 3E meeting. All participants were clinical rheumatologists experienced in the daily management of AS. Results: After three rounds of breakout sessions to discuss the findings of the literature review, a set of recommendations was finalized after discussion and voting. The category of evidence and strength of recommendation were determined for each proposal. The level of agreement among participants was excellent (mean 84%, range 64-100%). Conclusions: The 12 recommendations developed from evidence and expert opinion provide guidance for the daily management of AS patients. For most recommendations, we found a paucity of supportive evidence in the literature highlighting the need for additional clinical studies.

Colonoscopy preparation in children: Safety, efficacy, and tolerance of high- versus low-volume cleansing methods

Background: The use of large-volume electrolyte balanced solutions as preparation for colonoscopy often results in poor patient compliance and acceptance. The tolerance, safety, and efficacy of high-versus low volume colon-cleansing methods as preparation for colonoscopy in children were compared by randomized operator-blinded trial. Methods: Twenty-nine children ages 3.6-14.6 years had either high-volume nasogastric balanced polyethylene glycol electrolyte lavage (20 ml/kg/h) until the effluent was clear (n = 15), or two oral doses of sodium phosphate solution (22.5-45 ml) separated by oral fluid intake (n = 14). Results: Both preparations were equally effective. The low-volume preparation was better tolerated and caused less discomfort that the high-volume preparation, judging by serial nurse observations. The incidence of abdominal symptoms, diarrhea, sleep disturbance, and vomiting was not significantly different between the two groups. Both groups had a small reduction in mean hematocrit and serum calcium levels. The sodium phosphate preparation caused increases in mean serum sodium concentrations from 140 to 145 mmol/L and serum phosphate concentrations from 1.41 to 2.53 mmol/L. Ten hours after the commencement of the preanesthetic fast, these concentrations had returned to normal. Conclusions: There are advantages in terms of tolerance, discomfort, and case of administration with acceptable colonic cleansing with the use of the less-invasive oral sodium phosphate low-volume colon-cleansing preparation in children. Safe use requires ensuring an adequate oral fluid intake during the preparation time and avoidance of use in patients with renal insufficiency.

Driver views on safety at roadworks

Poor compliance with temporary speed limits is a common contributing factor in roadway work zone crashes. Despite the wide range of measures used to encourage compliance, speeding remains a major challenge in work zone traffic control. As part of the major study into safety at Queensland roadworks conducted by CARRS-Q and industry partners, an online survey was conducted to study the perceptions and experiences of drivers regarding roadworks, speed choice and related safety concerns. Survey participants (N=410) were asked to view photographs of 12 roadwork sites (shot from a drivers’ perspective without revealing the speed limits), to nominate the speed they thought they would drive at through work zones, and to rate from 1 to 5 separate levels of perceived risk to workers and to their own vehicles. The survey sought further information on topics including recall and effectiveness of public safety messages, perceived effectiveness of common roadwork safety measures, and demographic characteristics. Participants were also invited to express their concerns regarding any general or specific issue related to driving through roadworks. The current paper provides a descriptive summary of key findings from the survey, drawn from preliminary analyses of both quantitative and qualitative data, demonstrating the depth of data and its value for improving knowledge on driver perceptions and speed choice at roadworks. The survey is the first study of driver perceptions of roadwork risks and hazards to include an assessment of self-nominated speeds which can be compared with actual observed speeds at the same roadwork sites.

Speeding through roadworks: Understanding driver speed profiles and ways to reduce speeding

Poor compliance with speed limits is a serious safety concern at roadworks. While considerable research has been undertaken worldwide to understand drivers’ speeding behaviour at roadworks and to identify treatments for improving compliance with speed limits, little is known about the speeding behaviour of drivers at Australian roadworks and how their compliance rates with speed limits could be improved. This paper presents findings from two Queensland studies targeted at 1) examining drivers’ speed profiles at three long-term roadwork sites, and 2) understanding the effectiveness of speed control treatments at roadworks. The first study analysed driver speeds at various locations in the sites using a Tobit regression model. Results show that the probability of speeding was higher for light vehicles and their followers, for leaders of platoons with larger front gaps, during late afternoon and early morning, when higher proportions of surrounding vehicles were speeding, and at the upstream of work areas. The second study provided a comprehensive understanding of the effectiveness of various speed control treatments used at roadworks by undertaking a critical review of the literature. Results showed that enforcement has the greatest effects on reducing speeds among all treatments, while the roadwork signage and information-related treatments have small to moderate effects on speed reduction. Findings from the studies have potential for designing programs to effectively improve speed limit compliance at Australian roadworks.

Medication adherence of individuals with a first episode of psychosis

Objective To determine rates of adherence to antipsychotic medication in first episode patients and the correlates of adherence in this group. Method Subjects were the first 200 admissions to an Early Psychosis Program. Adherence was determined on a three-point scale. Symptoms, medication side-effects, quality of life, substance use and family involvement were examined longitudinally. Results In their first year in the program 39% were non-adherent, 20% inadequately adherent, and 41% adherent. Non-adherent patients demonstrated more positive symptoms, more relapses, more alcohol and cannabis use, reduced insight, and poorer quality of life. They were younger, had an earlier age of onset and less likely to have a family member involved in treatment. Conclusion Results for this group are similar to those reported in the literature. Correlates are often the consequence of non-adherence. Non-compliance has to be anticipated and relationships maintained with patients and families to intervene as soon as possible to minimize the consequence of non-compliance.

MRI-based measurement of carotid mechanical properties in asymptomatic patients

Arterial mechanical property may be a potential variable for risk stratification. Large artery and central arterial compliance have been shown not only to correlate well with overall cardiovascular outcome in large epidemiological studies [1, 2] but also to correlate with coronary atherosclerotic burden as measured by conventional angiography [3]. Until recently, real-time B-mode ultrasound combined with simultaneous blood pressure measurements have been used to assess large artery compliance [4]. These techniques have an excellent temporal resolution but are unable to provide adequate spatial resolution to determine changes in vessel area as opposed to diameter and make the assumption that the vessel is perfectly round. Attempts to use MR imaging to measure large artery compliance have been published previously [5]. However, they have not utilised simultaneous blood pressure measurements during sequence acquisition. We report a technique using regular and simultaneous blood pressure measurement during 2 dimensional phase contrast magnetic resonance imaging 2DPC-MRI to determine local carotid compliance.

Understanding how axial loads on the spine influence segmental biomechanics for idiopathic scoliosis patients: A magnetic resonance imaging study

Background Segmental biomechanics of the scoliotic spine are important since the overall spinal deformity is comprised of the cumulative coronal and axial rotations of individual joints. This study investigates the coronal plane segmental biomechanics for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients in response to physiologically relevant axial compression. Methods Individual spinal joint compliance in the coronal plane was measured for a series of 15 idiopathic scoliosis patients using axially loaded magnetic resonance imaging. Each patient was first imaged in the supine position with no axial load, and then again following application of an axial compressive load. Coronal plane disc wedge angles in the unloaded and loaded configurations were measured. Joint moments exerted by the axial compressive load were used to derive estimates of individual joint compliance. Findings The mean standing major Cobb angle for this patient series was 46°. Mean intra-observer measurement error for endplate inclination was 1.6°. Following loading, initially highly wedged discs demonstrated a smaller change in wedge angle, than less wedged discs for certain spinal levels (+ 2,+1,− 2 relative to the apex, (p < 0.05)). Highly wedged discs were observed near the apex of the curve, which corresponded to lower joint compliance in the apical region. Interpretation While individual patients exhibit substantial variability in disc wedge angles and joint compliance, overall there is a pattern of increased disc wedging near the curve apex, and reduced joint compliance in this region. Approaches such as this can provide valuable biomechanical data on in vivo spinal biomechanics of the scoliotic spine, for analysis of deformity progression and surgical planning.

The micropolitics of management in universities: Challenges and opportunities

In recent decades, there has been a strong call by writers in education for alternative forms of leadership and management that are human centred and that value social cohesion, fairness, and democratic practices. Referred to by names such as transformative leadership (Shields, 2013) and ethical leadership (Starratt, 1996), those promoting these types of leadership argue for the use of “power as a moral force for the common good” (Duignan, 2007, p.12). In this chapter, our interest lies with managers in universities and how they use power in ethical and unethical ways. We consider some macro forces (e.g., globalisation, neo-liberal policies) that have impacted universities, making it difficult for managers to promote socially just and equitable practices. In particular, we examine the influence of managerialism—the application of private sector practices to the public sector—where the role of manager is not to question current practices, but to conform to performance targets, and to ensure compliance (O’Brien & Down, 2002). To come to an understanding of what might constitute ethical practices, we refer to the field of micropolitics as a way to help illuminate current practice and point to more positive ways of working.

Understanding the determinants of Australian hospital nurses' hand hygiene decisions following the implementation of a national hand hygiene initiative

Hand hygiene is the primary measure in hospitals to reduce the spread of infections, with nurses experiencing the greatest frequency of patient contact. The ‘5 critical moments’ of hand hygiene initiative has been implemented in hospitals across Australia, accompanied by awareness-raising, staff training and auditing. The aim of this study was to understand the determinants of nurses’ hand hygiene decisions, using an extension of a common health decision-making model, the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), to inform future health education strategies to increase compliance. Nurses from 50 Australian hospitals (n = 2378) completed standard TPB measures (attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control [PBC], intention) and the extended variables of group norm, risk perceptions (susceptibility, severity) and knowledge (subjective, objective) at Time 1, while a sub-sample (n = 797) reported their hand hygiene behaviour 2 weeks later. Regression analyses identified subjective norm, PBC, group norm, subjective knowledge and risk susceptibility as the significant predictors of nurses’ hand hygiene intentions, with intention and PBC predicting their compliance behaviour. Rather than targeting attitudes which are already very favourable among nurses, health education strategies should focus on normative influences and perceptions of control and risk in efforts to encourage hand hygiene adherence.