550 resultados para trend following mean reversion


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Chloroquine-resistant Plasmodium falciparum was highly prevalent in Hainan, China, in the 1970s. Twenty-five years after cessation of chloroquine therapy, the prevalence of P. falciparum wild-type Pfcrt alleles has risen to 36% (95% confidence interval, 22.1 to 52.4%). The diverse origins of wild-type alleles indicate that there was no genetic bottleneck caused by high chloroquine resistance.

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We consider a discrete agent-based model on a one-dimensional lattice, where each agent occupies L sites and attempts movements over a distance of d lattice sites. Agents obey a strict simple exclusion rule. A discrete-time master equation is derived using a mean-field approximation and careful probability arguments. In the continuum limit, nonlinear diffusion equations that describe the average agent occupancy are obtained. Averaged discrete simulation data are generated and shown to compare very well with the solution to the derived nonlinear diffusion equations. This framework allows us to approach a lattice-free result using all the advantages of lattice methods. Since different cell types have different shapes and speeds of movement, this work offers insight into population-level behavior of collective cellular motion.

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This study analyzes the management of air pollutant substance in Chinese industrial sectors from 1998 to 2009. Decomposition analysis applying the logarithmic mean divisia index is used to analyze changes in emissions of air pollutants with a focus on the following five factors: coal pollution intensity (CPI), end-of-pipe treatment (EOP), the energy mix (EM), productive efficiency change (EFF), and production scale changes (PSC). Three pollutants are the main focus of this study: sulfur dioxide (SO2), dust, and soot. The novelty of this paper is focusing on the impact of the elimination policy on air pollution management in China by type of industry using the scale merit effect for pollution abatement technology change. First, the increase in SO2 emissions from Chinese industrial sectors because of the increase in the production scale is demonstrated. However, the EOP equipment that induced this change and improvements in energy efficiency has prevented an increase in SO2 emissions that is commensurate with the increase in production. Second, soot emissions were successfully reduced and controlled in all industries except the steel industry between 1998 and 2009, even though the production scale expanded for these industries. This reduction was achieved through improvements in EOP technology and in energy efficiency. Dust emissions decreased by nearly 65% between 1998 and 2009 in the Chinese industrial sectors. This successful reduction in emissions was achieved by implementing EOP technology and pollution prevention activities during the production processes, especially in the cement industry. Finally, pollution prevention in the cement industry is shown to result from production technology development rather than scale merit. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This study analyzes toxic chemical substance management in three U.S. manufacturing sectors from 1991 to 2008. Decomposition analysis applying the logarithmic mean Divisia index is used to analyze changes in toxic chemical substance emissions by the following five factors: cleaner production, end-of-pipe treatment, transfer for further management, mixing of intermediate materials, and production scale. Based on our results, the chemical manufacturing sector reduced toxic chemical substance emissions mainly via end-of-pipe treatment. In the meantime, transfer for further management contributed to the reduction of toxic chemical substance emissions in the metal fabrication industry. This occurred because the environmental business market expanded in the 1990s, and the infrastructure for the recycling of metal and other wastes became more efficient. Cleaner production is the main contributor to toxic chemical reduction in the electrical product industry. This implies that the electrical product industry is successful in developing a more environmentally friendly product design and production process.

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Purpose : To investigate the application of retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL) thickness as a marker for severity of diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) in people with Type 2 diabetes. Methods : This was a cross-sectional study whereby 61 participants (mean age 61 [41-75 years], mean duration of diabetes 14 [1-40 years], 70% male) with Type 2 diabetes and DPN underwent optical coherence tomography (OCT) scans. Global and 4 quadrant (TSNI) RNFL thicknesses were measured at 3.45mm around the optic nerve head of one eye. Neuropathy disability score (NDS) was used to assess the severity of DPN on a 0 to 10 scale. Participants were divided into three age-matched groups representing mild (NDS=3-5), moderate (NDS=6-8) and severe (NDS=9-10) neuropathy. Two regression models were fitted for statistical analysis: 1) NDS scores as co-variate for global and quadrant RNFL thicknesses, 2) NDS groups as a factor for global RNFL thickness only. Results : Mean (SD) RNFL thickness (µm) was 103(9) for mild neuropathy (n=34), 101(10) for moderate neuropathy (n=16) and 95(13) in the group with severe neuropathy (n=11). Global RNFL thickness and NDS scores were statistically significantly related (b=-1.20, p=0.048). When neuropathy was assessed across groups, a trend of thinner mean RNFL thickness was observed with increasing severity of neuropathy; however, this result was not statistically significant (F=2.86, p=0.065). TSNI quadrant analysis showed that mean RNFL thickness reduction in the inferior quadrant was 2.55 µm per 1 unit increase in NDS score (p=0.005). However, the regression coefficients were not statistically significant for RNFL thickness in the superior (b=-1.0, p=0.271), temporal (b=-0.90, p=0.238) and nasal (b=-0.99, p=0.205) quadrants. Conclusions : RNFL thickness was reduced with increasing severity of DPN and the effect was most evident in the inferior quadrant. Measuring RNFL thickness using OCT may prove to be a useful, non-invasive technique for identifying severity of DPN and may also provide additional insight into common mechanisms for peripheral neuropathy and RNFL damage.

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Background: In recent years, there have been investigations concerning upper-limbs kinematics by various devices. The latest generation of smartphones often includes inertial sensors with subunits which can detect inertial kinematics. The use of smartphones is presented as a convenient and portable analysis method for studying kinematics in terms of angular mobility and linear acceleration Objective: The aim of this study was to study humerus kinematics through six physical properties that correspond to angular mobility and acceleration in the three axes of space, obtained by a smartphone. Methods: This cross-sectional study recruited healthy young adult subjects. Descriptive and anthropometric independent variables related to age, gender, weight, size, and BMI were included. Six physical properties were included corresponding to two dependent variables for each of three special axes: mobility angle (degrees) and lineal acceleration (meters/seconds2), which were obtained thought the inertial measurement sensor embedded in the iPhone4 smartphone equipped with three two elements for the detection of kinematic variables: a gyroscope and an accelerometer. Apple uses an LIS302DL accelerometer in the iPhone4. The application used to obtain kinematic data was xSensor Pro, Crossbow Technology, Inc., available at the Apple AppStore. The iPhone4 has storage capacity of 20MB. The data-sampling rate was set to 32 Hz, and the data for each analytical task was transmitted as email for analysis and postprocessing The iPhone4 was placed in the right half of the body of each subject located in the middle third of the humerus slightly posterior snugly secured by a neoprene fixation belt. Tasks were explained concisely and clearly. The beginning and the end were decided by a verbal order by the researcher. Participants were placed standing, starting from neutral position, performing the following analytical tasks: 180º right shoulder abduction (eight repetitions) and, after a break of about 3 minutes, 180º right shoulder flexion (eight repetitions). Both tasks were performed with the elbow extended, wrist in neutral position and the palmar area of the hand toward the midline at the beginning and end of the movement. Results: A total of 11 subjects (8 men, 3 woman) were measured, whose mean of age was 24.7 years (SD = 4.22 years) and their average BMI was 22.64 Kg/m2 (SD = 2.29 Kg/m2). The mean of angular mobility collected by the smartphone was bigger in pitch axis for flexion (= 157.28°, SD= 12.35°) and abduction (= 151.71°, SD= 9.70°). With regard to acceleration, the highest peak mean value was shown in the Y motion axis during flexion (= 19.5°/s2, SD = 0.8°/s2) and abduction (= 19.4°/s2, SD = 0.8°/s2). Also, descriptive graphics of analytical tasks performed were obtained. Conclusions: This study shows how humerus contributes to upper-limb motion and it identified movement patterns. Therefore, it supports smartphone as a useful device to analyze upper-limb kinematics. Thanks to this study it´s possible to develop a simple application that facilitates the evaluation of the patient.

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The myofibrillar protein synthesis (MPS) response to resistance exercise (REX) and protein ingestion during energy deficit (ED) is unknown. We determined, in young men (n=8) and women (n=7), protein signaling, resting post-absorptive MPS during energy balance [EB: 45 kcal∙(kg FFM∙d)-1] and after 5d of ED [30 kcal∙(kg FFM∙d)-1] as well as MPS while in ED after acute REX in the fasted state and with the ingestion of whey protein (15 and 30 g). Post-absorptive rates of MPS were 27% lower in ED than EB (P<0.001), but REX stimulated MPS to rates equal to EB. Ingestion of 15 and 30 g of protein after REX in ED increased MPS ~16 and ~34% above resting EB, (P<0.02). p70 S6Kthr389 phosphorylation increased above EB only with combined exercise and protein intake (~2-7 fold; P<0.05). In conclusion, short-term ED reduces post-absorptive MPS, however, a bout of REX in ED restores MPS to values observed at rest in EB. The ingestion of protein after REX further increases MPS above resting EB in a dose-dependent manner. We conclude that combining REX with increased protein availability after exercise enhances rates of skeletal muscle protein synthesis during short term ED and could, in the long term, preserve muscle mass.

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Surgical site infections following caesarean section are a serious and costly adverse event for Australian hospitals. In the United Kingdom, 9% of women are diagnosed with a surgical site infection following caesarean section either in hospital or post-discharge (Wloch et al 2012, Ward et al 2008). Additional staff time, pharmaceuticals and health supplies, and increased length of stay or readmission to hospital are often required (Henman et al 2012). Part of my PhD investigated the economics of preventing post-caesarean infection. This paper summarises a review of relevant infection prevention strategies. Administering antibiotic prophylaxis 15 to 60 minutes pre-incision, rather than post cordclamping, is probably the most important infection prevention strategy for caesarean section (Smaill and Gyte2010, Liu et al 2013, Dahlke et al 2013). However the timing of antibiotic administration is reportedly inconsistent in Australian hospitals. Clinicians may be taking advice from the influential, but out-dated RANZCOG and United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines (Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists 2011, Mangram et al 1999). A number of other important international clinical guidelines, including Australia's NHMRC guidelines, recommend universal prophylactic antibiotics pre-incision for caesarean section (National Health and Medical Research Council 2010, National Collaborating Centre for Women's and Children's Health 2008, Anderson et al 2008, National Collaborating Centre for Women's and Children's Health 2011, Bratzler et al 2013, American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists 2011a, Antibiotic Expert Group 2010). We need to ensure women receive preincision antibiotic prophylaxis, particularly as nurses and midwives play a significant role in managing an infection that may result from sub-optimal practice. It is acknowledged more explicitly now that nurses and midwives can influence prescribing and administration of antibiotics through informal approaches (Edwards et al 2011). Methods such as surgical safety checklists are a more formal way for nurses and midwives to ensure that antibiotics are administered pre-incision (American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists 2011 b). Nurses and midwives can also be directly responsible for other infection prevention strategies such as instructing women to not remove pubic hair in the month before the expected date of delivery and wound management education (Ng et al 2013). Potentially more costly but effective strategies include using a Chlorhexidine-gluconate (CHG) sponge preoperatively (in addition to the usual operating room skin preparation) and vaginal cleansing with a povidone-iodine solution (Riley et al 2012, Rauk 2010, Haas, Morgan, and Contreras 2013).

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Objective: In response to concerns about the health consequences of high-risk drinking by young people, the Australian Government increased the tax on pre-mixed alcoholic beverages ('alcopops') favoured by this demographic. We measured changes in admissions for alcohol-related harm to health throughout Queensland, before and after the tax increase in April 2008. Methods: We used data from the Queensland Trauma Register, Hospitals Admitted Patients Data Collection, and the Emergency Department Information System to calculate alcohol-related admission rates per 100,000 people, for 15 - 29 year-olds. We analysed data over 3 years (April 2006 - April 2009), using interrupted time-series analyses. This covered 2 years before, and 1 year after, the tax increase. We investigated both mental and behavioural consequences (via F10 codes), and intentional/unintentional injuries (S and T codes). Results: We fitted an auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, to test for any changes following the increased tax. There was no decrease in alcohol-related admissions in 15 - 29 year-olds. We found similar results for males and females, as well as definitions of alcohol-related harms that were narrow (F10 codes only) and broad (F10, S and T codes). Conclusions: The increased tax on 'alcopops' was not associated with any reduction in hospital admissions for alcohol-related harms in Queensland 15 - 29 year-olds.

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Background Administrative data from the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) showed rapid growth of esomeprazole dispensing when it was launched. Australia has universal prescription medicine coverage (the PBS), which included esomeprazole from August 2002. Free samples of new medicines are commonly provided to doctors. Objectives To determine if a relationship exists between marketing expenditure on samples and the dispensing rate for esomeprazole in Australia between June 2002 and September 2006. Methods Quarterly sample expenditures at product/brand level for proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) for Australian general practitioners were obtained for July 2002 to September 2006. Corresponding PBS dispensing data were obtained for all PPIs and converted to defined daily dose (DDD)/1000 population/day. Spending on samples was calculated as dollars per dispensed prescription and plotted against time on the Australian market. Results: Total PPI usage increased from 34.2 to 50.8 DDD/1000 population/ day over the study period. Expenditure on samples per dispensed prescription was higher when a PPI was new on the market and diminished over 5-6 years to a relatively constant level. The rapid decline in this ratio was demonstrated by a case study following esomeprazole from launch in Australia for almost 5 years clearly demonstrating the initial investment to drive sales. Conclusion A relationship appears to exist between expenditure on esomeprazole samples and its usage in Australia. A high initial investment was followed by a rapid reduction in cost per prescription dispensed, predominantly due to growth in market share. This trend was consistent with other PPIs