Spatial prediction of N2O emissions in pasture : a Bayesian model averaging analysis

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is one of the greenhouse gases that can contribute to global warming. Spatial variability of N2O can lead to large uncertainties in prediction. However, previous studies have often ignored the spatial dependency to quantify the N2O - environmental factors relationships. Few researches have examined the impacts of various spatial correlation structures (e.g. independence, distance-based and neighbourhood based) on spatial prediction of N2O emissions. This study aimed to assess the impact of three spatial correlation structures on spatial predictions and calibrate the spatial prediction using Bayesian model averaging (BMA) based on replicated, irregular point-referenced data. The data were measured in 17 chambers randomly placed across a 271 m(2) field between October 2007 and September 2008 in the southeast of Australia. We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and a Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model to investigate and accommodate spatial dependency, and to estimate the effects of environmental variables on N2O emissions across the study site. We compared these with a Bayesian regression model with independent errors. The three approaches resulted in different derived maps of spatial prediction of N2O emissions. We found that incorporating spatial dependency in the model not only substantially improved predictions of N2O emission from soil, but also better quantified uncertainties of soil parameters in the study. The hybrid model structure obtained by BMA improved the accuracy of spatial prediction of N2O emissions across this study region.

Applying the ecological model of behavior change to a physical activity trial in retirement communities : description of the study protocol

Objectives To describe the intervention protocol for the first multilevel ecological intervention for physical activity in retirement communities that addresses individual, interpersonal and community influences on behavior change. Design A cluster randomized controlled trial design was employed with two study arms: a physical activity intervention and an attention control successful aging condition. Setting Sixteen continuing care retirement communities in San Diego County. Participants Three hundred twenty older adults, aged 65 years and older, are being recruited to participate in the trial. In addition, peer leaders are being recruited to lead some study activities, especially to sustain the intervention after study activities ceased. Intervention Participants in the physical activity trial receive individual, interpersonal and community intervention components. The individual level components include pedometers, goal setting and individual phone counseling. The interpersonal level components include group education sessions and peer-led activities. The community level components include resource audits and enumeration, tailored walking maps, and community improvement projects. The successful aging group receives individual and group attention about successful aging topics. Measurements The main outcome is light to moderate physical activity, measured objectively by accelerometry. Other objective outcomes included physical functioning, blood pressure, physical fitness, and cognitive functioning. Self report measures include depressive symptoms and health related quality of life. Results The intervention is being delivered successfully in the communities and compliance rates are high. Conclusion Ecological Models call for interventions that address multiple levels of the model. Previous studies have not included components at each level and retirement communities provide a model environment to demonstrate how to implement such an intervention.

The development of a carrying capacity assessment model for the Australian socio-environmental context

A key aim of this research was to highlight how society's understanding of constraints to the productive capacity of its resource base is vital to its long-term survival. This was achieved through the development of an online model, the Carrying Capacity Dashboard. The Dashboard was developed to estimate how much land Australian populations require for the production of their food, textiles, timber and liquid fuel. Findings reveal that Australia's estimated carrying capacity is currently over 40 million people but longer-term and more regional analyses suggest a much smaller number. Carrying capacity assessment also indicates that optimal resource security is to be found in balancing both small and large-scale self-sufficiency.

Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control

Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of theworld. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald’s formula for R0 and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are nowused to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross–Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context formosquito blood feeding, themovement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control.

The Implications of Activity Based Funding for Emergency Departments : A Comprehensive Literature Review

Executive Summary Emergency Departments (EDs) locally, nationally and internationally are becoming increasingly busy. Within this context, it can be challenging to deliver a health service that is safe, of high quality and cost-effective. Whilst various models are described within the literature that aim to measure ED ‘work’ or ‘activity’, they are often not linked to a measure of costs to provide such activity. It is important for hospital and ED managers to understand and apply this link so that optimal staffing and financial resourcing can be justifiably sought. This research is timely given that Australia has moved towards a national Activity Based Funding (ABF) model for ED activity. ABF is believed to increase transparency of care and fairness (i.e. equal work receives equal pay). ABF involves a person-, performance- or activity-based payment system, and thus a move away from historical “block payment” models that do not incentivise efficiency and quality. The aim of the Statewide Workforce and Activity-Based Funding Modelling Project in Queensland Emergency Departments (SWAMPED) is to identify and describe best practice Emergency Department (ED) workforce models within the current context of ED funding that operates under an ABF model. The study is comprised of five distinct phases. This monograph (Phase 1) comprises a systematic review of the literature that was completed in June 2013. The remaining phases include a detailed survey of Queensland hospital EDs’ resource levels, activity and operational models of care, development of new resource models, development of a user-friendly modelling interface for ED mangers, and production of a final report that identifies policy implications. The anticipated deliverable outcome of this research is the development of an ABF based Emergency Workforce Modelling Tool that will enable ED managers to profile both their workforce and operational models of care. Additionally, the tool will assist with the ability to more accurately inform adequate staffing numbers required in the future, inform planning of expected expenditures and be used for standardisation and benchmarking across similar EDs. Summary of the Findings Within the remit of this review of the literature, the main findings include: 1. EDs are becoming busier and more congested Rising demand, barriers to ED throughput and transitions of care all contribute to ED congestion. In addition requests by organisational managers and the community require continued broadening of the scope of services required of the ED and further increases in demand. As the population live longer with more lifestyle diseases their propensity to require ED care continues to grow. 2. Various models of care within EDs exist Models often vary to account for site specific characteritics to suit staffing profile, ED geographical location (e.g. metropolitan or rural site), and patient demographic profile (e.g. paediatrics, older persons, ethnicity). Existing and new models implemented within EDs often depend on the target outcome requiring change. Generally this is focussed on addressing issues at the input, throughput or output areas of the ED. Even with models targeting similar demographic or illness, the structure and process elements underpinning the model can vary, which can impact on outcomes and variance to the patient and carer experience between and within EDs. Major models of care to manage throughput inefficiencies include: A. Workforce Models of Care focus on the appropriate level of staffing for a given workload to provide prompt, timely and clinically effective patient care within an emergency care setting. The studies reviewed suggest that the early involvement of senior medical decision maker and/or specialised nursing roles such as Emergency Nurse Practitioners and Clinical Initiatives Nurse, primary contact or extended scope Allied Health Practitioners can facilitate patient flow and improve key indicators such as length of stay and reducing the number of those who did not wait to be seen amongst others. B. Operational Models of Care within EDs focus on mechanisms for streaming (e.g. fast-tracking) or otherwise grouping patient care based on acuity and complexity to assist with minimising any throughput inefficiencies. While studies support the positive impact of these models in general, it appears that they are most effective when they are adequately resourced. 3. Various methods of measuring ED activity exist Measuring ED activity requires careful consideration of models of care and staffing profile. Measuring activity requires the ability to account for factors including: patient census, acuity, LOS, intensity of intervention, department skill-mix plus an adjustment for non-patient care time. 4. Gaps in the literature Continued ED growth calls for new and innovative care delivery models that are safe, clinically effective and cost effective. New roles and stand-alone service delivery models are often evaluated in isolation without considering the global and economic impact on staffing profiles. Whilst various models of accounting for and measuring health care activity exist, costing studies and cost effectiveness studies are lacking for EDs making accurate and reliable assessments of care models difficult. There is a necessity to further understand, refine and account for measures of ED complexity that define a workload upon which resources and appropriate staffing determinations can be made into the future. There is also a need for continued monitoring and comprehensive evaluation of newly implemented workforce modelling tools. This research acknowledges those gaps and aims to: • Undertake a comprehensive and integrated whole of department workforce profiling exercise relative to resources in the context of ABF. • Inform workforce requirements based on traditional quantitative markers (e.g. volume and acuity) combined with qualitative elements of ED models of care; • Develop a comprehensive and validated workforce calculation tool that can be used to better inform or at least guide workforce requirements in a more transparent manner.

Key-private proxy re-encryption under LWE

Proxy re-encryption (PRE) is a highly useful cryptographic primitive whereby Alice and Bob can endow a proxy with the capacity to change ciphertext recipients from Alice to Bob, without the proxy itself being able to decrypt, thereby providing delegation of decryption authority. Key-private PRE (KP-PRE) specifies an additional level of confidentiality, requiring pseudo-random proxy keys that leak no information on the identity of the delegators and delegatees. In this paper, we propose a CPA-secure PK-PRE scheme in the standard model (which we then transform into a CCA-secure scheme in the random oracle model). Both schemes enjoy highly desirable properties such as uni-directionality and multi-hop delegation. Unlike (the few) prior constructions of PRE and KP-PRE that typically rely on bilinear maps under ad hoc assumptions, security of our construction is based on the hardness of the standard Learning-With-Errors (LWE) problem, itself reducible from worst-case lattice hard problems that are conjectured immune to quantum cryptanalysis, or “post-quantum”. Of independent interest, we further examine the practical hardness of the LWE assumption, using Kannan’s exhaustive search algorithm coupling with pruning techniques. This leads to state-of-the-art parameters not only for our scheme, but also for a number of other primitives based on LWE published the literature.

Publishing, postage, and prizes : classic Australian children’s literature in the public eye

2012 saw the publication of competing and complementary lines of Australian “classics”: “A&R Australian Classics” (HarperCollins) and “Text Classics” (Text Publishing). While Angus and Robertson were key in establishing a canon of Australian children’s classics in the twentieth century, it was the Text Classics line which included a selection of young people’s titles in their 2013. In turn, Penguin Australia launched a selection of “Australian Children’s Classics”. In so doing, these publishers were drawing on particular literary and visual cultural traditions in Australian children’s literature. Public assertions of a particular selection of children’s books reveals not only contemporary assumptions about desirable childhood experiences but about the operation of nostalgia therein. In encouraging Australian adults to judge books by their covers, such gestures imply that Australian children may be similarly understood. Importantly, the illusion of unity, sameness, and legibility which is promised by circumscribed canons of “classic” children’s literature may well imply a desire for similarly illusory, unified, legible, “classic” childhood. This paper attends to public attempts to materialise (and legitimise) a canon of classic Australian children’s literature. In particular, it considers the ways in which publishing, postage stamps, and book awards make visible a range of children’s books, but do so in order to either fix or efface the content or meaning of the books themselves. Moving between assertions of the best books for children from the 1980s to today, and of the social values circulated within those books, this paper considers the possibilities and problematics of an Australian children’s canon.

Efficient lattice (H)IBE in the standard model

We construct an efficient identity based encryption system based on the standard learning with errors (LWE) problem. Our security proof holds in the standard model. The key step in the construction is a family of lattices for which there are two distinct trapdoors for finding short vectors. One trapdoor enables the real system to generate short vectors in all lattices in the family. The other trapdoor enables the simulator to generate short vectors for all lattices in the family except for one. We extend this basic technique to an adaptively-secure IBE and a Hierarchical IBE.

Social tagging, guppy effect and the role of interference : a quantum-inspired model for tags combination

Social tagging systems are shown to evidence a well known cognitive heuristic, the guppy effect, which arises from the combination of different concepts. We present some empirical evidence of this effect, drawn from a popular social tagging Web service. The guppy effect is then described using a quantum inspired formalism that has been already successfully applied to model conjunction fallacy and probability judgement errors. Key to the formalism is the concept of interference, which is able to capture and quantify the strength of the guppy effect.

Higher Education and Sustainable Development : A Model for Curriculum Renewal

Responding to the global and unprecedented challenge of capacity building for twenty-first century life, this book is a practical guide for tertiary education institutions to quickly and effectively renew the curriculum towards education for sustainable development. The book begins by exploring why curriculum change has been so slow. It then describes a model for rapid curriculum renewal, highlighting the important roles of setting timeframes, formal and informal leadership, and key components and action strategies. The second part of the book provides detailed coverage of six core elements that have been trialled and peer reviewed by institutions around the world: - raising awareness among staff and students - mapping graduate attributes - auditing the curriculum - developing niche degrees, flagship courses and fully integrated programs - engaging and catalysing community and student markets - integrating curriculum with green campus operations. With input from more than seventy academics and grounded in engineering education experiences, this book will provide academic staff with tools and insights to rapidly align program offerings with the needs of present and future generations of students.

A simple model for the establishment of tick-borne pathogens of Ixodes scapularis : a global sensitivity analysis of R0

The basic reproduction number of a pathogen, R 0, determines whether a pathogen will spread (R0>1R 0>1), when introduced into a fully susceptible population or fade out (R0<1R 0<1), because infected hosts do not, on average, replace themselves. In this paper we develop a simple mechanistic model for the basic reproduction number for a group of tick-borne pathogens that wholly, or almost wholly, depend on horizontal transmission to and from vertebrate hosts. This group includes the causative agent of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi, and the causative agent of human babesiosis, Babesia microti, for which transmission between co-feeding ticks and vertical transmission from adult female ticks are both negligible. The model has only 19 parameters, all of which have a clear biological interpretation and can be estimated from laboratory or field data. The model takes into account the transmission efficiency from the vertebrate host as a function of the days since infection, in part because of the potential for this dynamic to interact with tick phenology, which is also included in the model. This sets the model apart from previous, similar models for R0 for tick-borne pathogens. We then define parameter ranges for the 19 parameters using estimates from the literature, as well as laboratory and field data, and perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model. This enables us to rank the importance of the parameters in terms of their contribution to the observed variation in R0. We conclude that the transmission efficiency from the vertebrate host to Ixodes scapularis ticks, the survival rate of Ixodes scapularis from fed larva to feeding nymph, and the fraction of nymphs finding a competent host, are the most influential factors for R0. This contrasts with other vector borne pathogens where it is usually the abundance of the vector or host, or the vector-to-host ratio, that determine conditions for emergence. These results are a step towards a better understanding of the geographical expansion of currently emerging horizontally transmitted tick-borne pathogens such as Babesia microti, as well as providing a firmer scientific basis for targeted use of acaricide or the application of wildlife vaccines that are currently in development.

Certified pseudonyms colligated with master secret key

A pseudonym provides anonymity by protecting the identity of a legitimate user. A user with a pseudonym can interact with an unknown entity and be confident that his/her identity is secret even if the other entity is dishonest. In this work, we present a system that allows users to create pseudonyms from a trusted master public-secret key pair. The proposed system is based on the intractability of factoring and finding square roots of a quadratic residue modulo a composite number, where the composite number is a product of two large primes. Our proposal is different from previously published pseudonym systems, as in addition to standard notion of protecting privacy of an user, our system offers colligation between seemingly independent pseudonyms. This new property when combined with a trusted platform that stores a master secret key is extremely beneficial to an user as it offers a convenient way to generate a large number of pseudonyms using relatively small storage.

Factors for IT-enabled public sector process improvements in developing economies

IT resources are indispensable in the management of Public Sector Organizations (PSOs) around the world. We investigate the factors that could leverage the IT resources in PSOs in developing economies. While research on ways to leverage IT resources in private sector organizations of developed countries is substantial, our understanding on ways to leverage the IT resources in the public sector in developing countries is limited. The current study aspires to address this gap in the literature by seeking to determine the key factors required to create process value from public sector IT investments in developing countries. We draw on the resource-centric theories to imply the nature of factors that could leverage the IT resources in the public sector. Employing an interpretive design, we identified three factors necessary for IT process value generation in the public sector. We discuss these factors and state their implications to theory and practice.

The Australian mining industry and the ideal mining woman : mobilizing a public business case for gender equality

Despite ongoing ‘boom’ conditions in the Australian mining industry, women remain substantially and unevenly under-represented in the sector, as is the case in other resource-dependent countries. Building on the literature critiquing business-case rationales and strategies as a means to achieve women’s equality in the workplace, we examine the business case for employing more women as advanced by the Australian mining industry. Specifically, we apply a discourse analysis to seven substantial, publically-available documents produced by the industry’s national and state peak organizations between 2005 and 2013. Our study makes two contributions. First, we map the features of the business case at the sectoral rather than firm or workplace level and examine its public mobilization. Second, we identify the construction and deployment of a normative identity – ‘the ideal mining woman’ – as a key outcome of this business-case discourse. Crucially, women are therein positioned as individually responsible for gender equality in the workplace.

Critical factors affecting the implementation of sustainable housing in Australia

Improved public awareness of the environment and available technologies will continue to highlight the importance of sustainable housing in the coming years. Despite this potential, the majority of new housing development in Australia is still “project homes” with few tangible sustainability measures. Stakeholders tend to have different perceptions and priorities on sustainability. To promote the uptake of sustainable housing products, a study of the critical issues affecting the implementation of sustainable housing is necessary. This research investigates multiple factors that may influence key stakeholders’ decision-making towards sustainable housing adoption. Drawing insights from combined questionnaire and interview studies, 12 critical factors and their interrelationships are identified based on professional views in the Australian housing industry. The mutual influences, or driving force and dependency, of these factors are further investigated via Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM) to distinguish those requiring prominent and immediate attention. A hierarchical model is developed to help key stakeholders prioritise actions when implementing sustainable housing.