Parameter estimation of structural commodity price models

Commodity price modeling is normally approached in terms of structural time-series models, in which the different components (states) have a financial interpretation. The parameters of these models can be estimated using maximum likelihood. This approach results in a non-linear parameter estimation problem and thus a key issue is how to obtain reliable initial estimates. In this paper, we focus on the initial parameter estimation problem for the Schwartz-Smith two-factor model commonly used in asset valuation. We propose the use of a two-step method. The first step considers a univariate model based only on the spot price and uses a transfer function model to obtain initial estimates of the fundamental parameters. The second step uses the estimates obtained in the first step to initialize a re-parameterized state-space-innovations based estimator, which includes information related to future prices. The second step refines the estimates obtained in the first step and also gives estimates of the remaining parameters in the model. This paper is part tutorial in nature and gives an introduction to aspects of commodity price modeling and the associated parameter estimation problem.

Structural identification of hindered amine light stabilisers in coil coatings using electrospray ionisation tandem mass spectrometry

Hindered amine light stabilisers (HALS) are the most effective antioxidants currently available for polymer systems in post-production, in-service applications, yet the mechanism of their action is still not fully understood. Structural characterisation of HALS in polymer matrices, particularly the identification of structural modifications brought about by oxidative conditions, is critical to aid mechanistic understanding of the prophylactic effects of these molecules. In this work, electrospray ionisation tandem mass spectrometry (ESI-MS/MS) was applied to the analysis of a suite of commercially available 2,2,6,6-tetramethylpiperidine-based HALS. Fragmentation mechanisms for the \[M + H](+) ions are proposed, which provide a rationale for the product ions observed in the MS/MS and MS(3) mass spectra of N-H, N-CH(3), N-C(O)CH(3) and N-OR containing HALS (where R is an alkyl substituent). A common product ion at m/z 123 was identified for the group of antioxidants containing N-H, N-CH3 or N-C(0)CH3 functionality, and this product ion was employed in precursor ion scans on a triple quadrupole mass spectrometer to identify the HALS species present in a crude extract from of a polyester-based coil coating. Using MS/MS, two degradation products were unambiguously identified. This technique provides a simple and selective approach to monitoring HALS structures within complex matrices. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An intervention to discourage Australian mothers from unnecessarily exposing their babies to the sun for therapeutic reasons

Parents play a key role in children’s sun-protective behaviour, with good sun-protective habits established early tending to be sustained. We designed a maternity hospital-based educational intervention to reduce myths that could result in mothers intentionally sunning their babies. Interviews were conducted with two cross-sections of healthy post-partum inpatients in the maternity ward of a large regional public hospital. The first group (n¼106) was recruited before the commencement of educational in-services for maternity nursing staff; the second group (n¼203) was interviewed after the last staff in-service session. More pre-intervention than post-intervention women reported they would expose their baby to sunlight to: treat suspected jaundice (28.8% vs. 13.3%; p<0.001) or help their baby’s skin adapt to sunlight (10.5% vs. 2.5%; p¼0.003). Fewer post-intervention women indicated they would sun themselves to treat breastfeeding-associated sore/cracked nipples (7.6% vs. 2%; p¼0.026). This educational intervention should be used to educate parents, health professionals and students

Obesity and comorbid risk factors for cardiovascular disease among physically inactive patients with musculoskeletal disorders : a targeted intervention for this priority patient group is warranted

Introduction The benefits of physical activity are established and numerous; not the least of which is reduced risk of negative cardiovascular events. While sedentary lifestyles are having negative impacts across populations, people with musculoskeletal disorders may face additional challenges to becoming physically active. Unfortunately, interventions in ambulatory hospital clinics for people with musculoskeletal disorders primarily focus on their presenting musculoskeletal complaint with cursory attention given to lifestyle risk factors; including physical inactivity. This missed opportunity is likely to have both personal costs for patients and economic costs for downstream healthcare funders. Objectives The objective of this study was to investigate the presence of obesity, diabetes, diagnosed cardiac conditions, and previous stroke (CVA) among insufficiently physically active patients accessing (non-surgical) ambulatory hospital clinics for musculoskeletal disorders to indicate whether a targeted risk-reducing intervention is warranted. Methods A sub-group analysis of patients (n=110) who self-reported undertaking insufficient physical activity level to meet national (Australian) minimum recommended guidelines was conducted. Responses to the Active Australia Survey were used to identify insufficiently active patients from a larger cohort study being undertaken across three (non-surgical) ambulatory hospital clinics for musculoskeletal disorders. Outcomes of interest included body mass index, Type-II diabetes, diagnosed cardiac conditions, previous CVA and patients’ current health-related quality of life (Euroqol-5D). Results The mean (standard deviation) age of inactive patients was 56 (14) years. Body mass index values indicated that n=80 (73%) were overweight n=26 (24%), or obese n=45 (49%). In addition to their presenting condition, a substantial number of patients reported comorbid diabetes n=23 (21%), hypertension n=25 (23%) or an existing heart condition n=14 (13%); 4 (3%) had previously experienced a CVA as well as other comorbid conditions. Health-related quality of life was also substantially impacted, with a mean (standard deviation) multi-attribute utility score of 0.51 (0.32). Conclusion A range of health conditions and risk factors for further negative health events, including cardiovascular complications, consistent with physically inactive lifestyles were evident. A targeted risk-reducing intervention is warranted for this high risk clinical group.

Randomized trial of a clinic-based, community-supported, lifestyle intervention to improve physical activity and diet : The North Carolina enhanced WISEWOMAN project

Objective To determine if a clinic-based behavioral intervention program for low-income mid-life women that emphasizes use of community resources will increase moderate intensity physical activity (PA) and improve dietary intake. Methods Randomized trial conducted from May 2003 to December 2004 at one community health center in Wilmington, NC. A total of 236 women, ages 40–64, were randomized to receive an Enhanced Intervention (EI) or Minimal Intervention (MI). The EI consisted of an intensive phase (6 months) including 2 individual counseling sessions, 3 group sessions, and 3 phone calls from a peer counselor followed by a maintenance phase (6 months) including 1 individual counseling session and 7 monthly peer counselor calls. Both phases included efforts to increase participants' use of community resources that promote positive lifestyle change. The MI consisted of a one-time mailing of pamphlets on diet and PA. Outcomes, measured at 6 and 12 months, included the comparison of moderate intensity PA between study groups as assessed by accelerometer (primary outcome) and questionnaire, and dietary intake assessed by questionnaire and serum carotenoids (6 months only). Results For accelerometer outcomes, follow-up was 75% at 6 months and 73% at 12 months. Though moderate intensity PA increased in the EI and decreased in the MI, the difference between groups was not statistically significant (p = 0.45; multivariate model, p = 0.08); however, moderate intensity PA assessed by questionnaire (92% follow-up at 6 months and 75% at 12 months) was greater in the EI (p = 0.01; multivariate model, p = 0.001). For dietary outcomes, follow-up was 90% for questionnaire and 92% for serum carotenoids at 6 months and 74% for questionnaire at 12 months. Dietary intake improved more in the EI compared to the MI (questionnaire at 6 and 12 months, p < 0.001; serum carotenoid index, p = 0.05; multivariate model, p = 0.03). Conclusion The EI did not improve objectively measured PA, but was associated with improved self-reported and objective measures of dietary intake.

Feasibility and efficacy of a church-based intervention to promote physical activity in children

Background This study evaluated the feasibility and preliminary efficacy of a church-based intervention to promote physical activity (PA) in children. Methods The study was conducted in 4 churches located in 2 large metropolitan areas and 2 regional towns in Kansas. Churches in the intervention condition implemented the "Shining Like Stars" physical activity curriculum module during their regularly scheduled Sunday school classes. Churches in the control condition delivered the same content without integrating physical activity into the lessons. In addition to the curriculum, the intervention churches completed a series of weekly family devotional activities designed to promote parental support for PA and increase PA outside of Sunday school. Results Children completing the Shining Like Stars curriculum exhibited significantly greater amounts of MVPA than those in the control condition (20 steps/min vs. 7 steps/min). No intervention effects were observed for PA levels outside of Sunday school or parental support for PA; however, relative to controls, children in the intervention churches did exhibit a significant reduction in screen time. Conclusion The findings confirm that the integration of physical activity into Sunday school is feasible and a potentially effective strategy for promoting PA in young children.

Matrix metalloproteinase 13-deficient mice are resistant to osteoarthritic cartilage erosion but not chondrocyte hypertrophy or osteophyte development

Objective To investigate the role of matrix metalloproteinase 13 (MMP-13; collagenase 3) in osteoarthritis (OA). Methods OA was surgically induced in the knees of MMP-13-knockout mice and wild-type mice, and mice were compared. Histologic scoring of femoral and tibial cartilage aggrecan loss (0-3 scale), erosion (0-7 scale), and chondrocyte hypertrophy (0-1 scale), as well as osteophyte size (0-3 scale) and maturity (0-3 scale) was performed. Serial sections were stained for type X collagen and the MMP-generated aggrecan neoepitope DIPEN. Results Following surgery, aggrecan loss and cartilage erosion were more severe in the tibia than femur (P < 0.01) and tibial cartilage erosion increased with time (P < 0.05) in wild-type mice. Cartilaginous osteophytes were present at 4 weeks and underwent ossification, with size and maturity increasing by 8 weeks (P < 0.01). There was no difference between genotypes in aggrecan loss or cartilage erosion at 4 weeks. There was less tibial cartilage erosion in knockout mice than in wild-type mice at 8 weeks (P < 0.02). Cartilaginous osteophytes were larger in knockout mice at 4 weeks (P < 0.01), but by 8 weeks osteophyte maturity and size were no different from those in wild-type mice. Articular chondrocyte hypertrophy with positive type X collagen and DIPEN staining occurred in both wild-type and knockout mouse joints. Conclusion Our findings indicate that structural cartilage damage in a mouse model of OA is dependent on MMP-13 activity. Chondrocyte hypertrophy is not regulated by MMP-13 activity in this model and does not in itself lead to cartilage erosion. MMP-13 deficiency can inhibit cartilage erosion in the presence of aggrecan depletion, supporting the potential for therapeutic intervention in established OA with MMP-13 inhibitors.

Evaluation of a community-based intervention to promote physical activity in youth : lessons from active winners

Purpose To test the effects of a community-based physical activity intervention designed to increase physical activity and to conduct an extensive process evaluation of the intervention. Design Quasi-experimental. Setting Two rural communities in South Carolina. One community received the intervention, and the other served as the comparison. Subjects Public school students who were in fifth grade at the start of the study (558 at baseline) were eligible to participate. A total of 436 students participated over the course of the study. Intervention The intervention included after-school and summer physical activity programs and home, school, and community components designed to increase physical activity in youth. The intervention took place over an 18-month period. Measures. Students reported after-school physical activity at three data collection points (prior to, during, and following the intervention) using the Previous Day Physical Activity Recall (PDPAR). They also completed a questionnaire designed to measure hypothesized psychosocial and environmental determinants of physical activity behavior The process evaluation used meeting records, documentation of program activities, interviews, focus groups, and heart rate monitoring to evaluate the planning and implementation of the intervention. Results There were no significant differences in the physical activity variables and few significant differences in the psychosocial variables between the intervention and comparison groups. The process evaluation indicated that the after-school and summer physical activity component of the intervention was implemented as planned, but because of resource and time limitations, the home, school, and community components were not implemented as planned. Conclusions The intervention did not have a significant effect on physical activity in the target population of children in the intervention community. This outcome is similar to that reported in other studies of community-based physical activity intervention.

The feasibility of a home-based moderate-intensity physical activity intervention in obese children and adolescents

Objective To explore the feasibility of conducting a 10-week home-based physical activity (PA) programme and evaluate the changes in insulin sensitivity (S I) commensurate with the programme in obese young people. Design Open-labelled intervention. Setting Home-based intervention with clinical assessments at a tertiary paediatric hospital. Subjects 18 obese (body mass index (BMI)>International Obesity Task Force age and sex-specifi c cut-offs) children and adolescents (8-18 years, 11 girls/7 boys) were recruited. 15 participants (nine girls/six boys, mean±SE age 11.8±0.6 years, BMI-SD scores (BMI-SDS) 3.5±0.1, six prepubertal/nine pubertal) completed the intervention. Intervention The programme comprised biweekly home visits over 10 weeks with personalised plans implemented aiming to increase moderate-intensity PA. Pedometers and PA diaries were used as self-monitoring tools. The goals were to (1) teach participants behavioural skills related to adopting and maintaining an active lifestyle and (2) increase daily participation in PA. Outcome measures Mean steps/day were assessed. SI assessed by the frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance test and other components of the insulin resistance syndrome were measured. Results Mean steps/day increased significantly from 10 363±927 (baseline) to 13 013±1131 (week 10) (p<0.05). S I was also significantly increased, despite no change in BMI-SDS, and remained so after an additional 10-week follow-up. Conclusions The results suggest that such a homebased PA programme is feasible. S I improved without changes in BMI-SDS. More rigorous evaluations of such programmes are warranted.

Effects of physical activity intervention in youth : a review

Effects of physical activity interventions in youth: A review. International SportMed Journal. Vol.2 No.5 2001. The purpose of this paper is to review the peer-reviewed literature pertinent to physical activity interventions for children and adolescents. In order to provide a more quantitative conclusion regarding the effectiveness of these interventions, a meta-analytic approach was utilized in which effect sizes (the efficacy of each intervention or magnitude of the intervention effect was expressed as a standardized effect size, which represents the influence of the treatment or intervention on the dependent variable) from each study are pooled to provide a global estimate of effectiveness. A search of the relevant peer-reviewed literature was conducted using several computer-based databases, including MEDLINE, PYSCHLIT, SOCIAL SCIENCE INDEX, and SPORTS DISCUS. Manual searches were also made using the reference lists from recovered articles. Applying strict criteria for quality of design and assessment of physical activity, 10 studies were located, yielding a total of 44 effect sizes. The mean effect size was 0.47 (95% C.I. 0.28 – 0.66) suggesting that interventions have produced moderate increases in physical activity behavior. Effect sizes ranged from –0.61 to 2.5. Interventions focusing on increasing the amount of physical activity performed during regular physical education were more effective than those targeting overall levels of physical activity. Interventions were almost entirely school-based. Accordingly, the development and evaluation of community-based approaches for promoting physical activity among young people, especially older adolescents, remains an urgent priority for future research.

Predicting emotional exhaustion among haemodialysis nurses : a structural equation model using Kanter’s structural empowerment theory

Aim To test an explanatory model of the relationships between the nursing work environment, job satisfaction, job stress and emotional exhaustion for haemodialysis nurses, drawing on Kanter's theory of organizational empowerment. Background Understanding the organizational predictors of burnout (emotional exhaustion) in haemodialysis nurses is critical for staff retention and improving nurse and patient outcomes. Previous research has demonstrated high levels of emotional exhaustion among haemodialysis nurses, yet the relationships between nurses' work environment, job satisfaction, stress and emotional exhaustion in this population are poorly understood. Design A cross-sectional online survey. Methods 417 nurses working in haemodialysis units completed an online survey between October 2011–April 2012 using validated measures of the work environment, job satisfaction, job stress and emotional exhaustion. Results Overall, the structural equation model demonstrated adequate fit and we found partial support for the hypothesized relationships. Nurses' work environment had a direct positive effect on job satisfaction, explaining 88% of the variance. Greater job satisfaction, in turn, predicted lower job stress, explaining 82% of the variance. Job satisfaction also had an indirect effect on emotional exhaustion by mitigating job stress. However, job satisfaction did not have a direct effect on emotional exhaustion. Conclusion The work environment of haemodialysis nurses is pivotal to the development of job satisfaction. Nurses' job satisfaction also predicts their level of job stress and emotional exhaustion. Our findings suggest staff retention can be improved by creating empowering work environments that promote job satisfaction among haemodialysis nurses.

Why are early maturing girls less active? Links between pubertal development, psychological well-being, and physical activity among girls at ages 11 and 13

Previous research has shown that early maturing girls at age I I have lower subsequent physical activity at age 13 in comparison to later maturing girls. Possible reasons for this association have not been assessed. This study examines girls' psychological response to puberty and their enjoyment of physical activity as intermediary factors linking pubertal maturation and physical activity. Participants included 178 girls who were assessed at age 11, of whom 168 were reassessed at age 13. All participants were non-Hispanic white and resided in the US. Three measures of pubertal development were obtained at age I I including Tanner breast stage, estradiol levels, and mothers' reports of girls' development on the Pubertal Development Scale (PDS). Measures of psychological well-being at ages I I and 13 included depression, global self-worth, perceived athletic competence, maturation fears, and body esteem. At age 13, girls' enjoyment of physical activity was assessed using the Physical Activity Enjoyment Scale and their daily minutes of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were assessed using objective monitoring. Structural Equation Modeling was used to assess direct and indirect pathways between pubertal development at age I I and MVPA at age 13. In addition to a direct effect of pubertal development on MVPA, indirect effects were found for depression, global self-worth and maturity fears controlling for covariates. In each instance, more advanced pubertal development at age I I was associated with lower psychological wellbeing at age 13, which predicted lower enjoyment of physical activity at age 13 and in turn lower MVPA. Results from this study suggest that programs designed to increase physical activity among adolescent girls should address the self-consciousness and discontent that girls' experience with their bodies during puberty, particularly if they mature earlier than their peers, and identify activities or settings that make differences in body shape less conspicuous.

Health promotion for dogs and humans : the 10,000 steps Rockhampton dog walking intervention

Purpose This paper describes the implementation and evaluation of an intervention aimed at increasing the dog-walking behaviour of residents from a community of approximately 60,000. This intervention was a sub strategy of the 10 000 Steps Rockhampton project – a community intervention aimed at decreasing sedentary behaviour in the adult population. Methods Brochures and posters were developed that promoted dog walking as a means to improve both human and canine health. The brochures were distributed by the local council to over 8 000 homes with the annual dog-renewal registrations. Results Evaluation of the intervention included a telephone survey of a randomly selected sample of Rockhampton residents (n=420) four-months post intervention. Although 63.6% of participants reported that owning a dog increased their physical activity levels, 40% of dog-owners did not walk their dog at all in the last week. The outcome evaluation of the intervention showed that 20.2% of dog-owners recalled receiving the brochure. Overall 15.3% of respondents with a dog in their household reported an increase in their physical activity levels since the intervention, 8.4% reported a decrease. Conclusions The intervention was an innovative and cost-effective way to tap into a section of the population that can benefit from engaging in regular walking behaviour. It was also a unique and useful way to engage local council in physical activity health promotion as part of a larger ongoing community-wide intervention.

A smoking cessation intervention for people with chronic Hepatitis C : a randomised controlled trial

Purpose The purpose of this study was to examine the validity of current practice in smoking cessation for the general population i.e., a telephone counselling and nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) intervention and its applicability to people with chronic hepatitis-C. Methods A randomised controlled trial was conducted over twelve weeks. Following consent, ninety-two smokers (outpatients) with chronic hepatitis-C were recruited by the Nurse Practitioner hepatology, randomly assigned and stratified by number of cigarettes smoked (i.e., 15 and greater; <15) into the intervention group (telephone counselling and NRT) and control group (telephone counselling). Outcomes measured included socio-demographics, nicotine dependence, depression, anxiety and stress and quality of life (QOL). All statistical data were analysed using SPSS. Results After 12 weeks, the intervention group showed a sustained reduction of smoking i.e., 5.8(CI: 2.4,9.3) cigarettes less per day, whereas the control group showed 1.6(CI:-1.9,5.2) cigarette reduction. Although not statistically significantly different (F=2.9, p=0.090) the intervention group on average smoked 4.2 fewer cigarettes compared to the control group. After twelve weeks, seven patients in the intervention group and three patients in the control group reported quitting. Whilst not statistically significant (Fisher’s Exact, p=0.311) this was a clinically significant result. No differences were found for nicotine dependence or depression, anxiety and stress. The intervention group experienced no change in QOL (-0.1,CI:-0.9, 0.6), however, the environmental score for the control group decreased by 1.8(CI:1.0, 2.6,p= 0.001). This was statistically significant. Conclusion A telephone counselling and nicotine replacement therapy intervention from the nurse practitioner, hepatology reduced smoking in patients with chronic hepatitis-C. The intervention group showed a sustained reduction over the 12 weeks. A total of 10 patients quit smoking at the end of the study. QOL deteriorated in the environmental subscale for the control group. These results informed a nurse practitioner model of care for approaches to smoking cessation.

Vertical displacement measurement using fibre Bragg grating (FBG) sensors for structural health monitoring of bridges

This thesis developed a practical, cost effective, easy-to-use method for measuring the vertical displacements of bridges using fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensors, which includes the curvature and inclination approaches. These approaches were validated by the numerical simulation tests on a full scale bridge and the laboratory-based tests. In doing so, a novel frictionless FBG inclination sensor with extremely high sensitivity and resolution has also been developed and validated.