Applying Bayesian hierarchical models to examine motorcycle crashes at signalized intersections

Motorcycles are overrepresented in road traffic crashes and particularly vulnerable at signalized intersections. The objective of this study is to identify causal factors affecting the motorcycle crashes at both four-legged and T signalized intersections. Treating the data in time-series cross-section panels, this study explores different Hierarchical Poisson models and found that the model allowing autoregressive lag 1 dependent specification in the error term is the most suitable. Results show that the number of lanes at the four-legged signalized intersections significantly increases motorcycle crashes largely because of the higher exposure resulting from higher motorcycle accumulation at the stop line. Furthermore, the presence of a wide median and an uncontrolled left-turn lane at major roadways of four-legged intersections exacerbate this potential hazard. For T signalized intersections, the presence of exclusive right-turn lane at both major and minor roadways and an uncontrolled left-turn lane at major roadways of T intersections increases motorcycle crashes. Motorcycle crashes increase on high-speed roadways because they are more vulnerable and less likely to react in time during conflicts. The presence of red light cameras reduces motorcycle crashes significantly for both four-legged and T intersections. With the red-light camera, motorcycles are less exposed to conflicts because it is observed that they are more disciplined in queuing at the stop line and less likely to jump start at the start of green.

An investigation on multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes using log-linear models

Motorcyclists are the most crash-prone road-user group in many Asian countries including Singapore; however, factors influencing motorcycle crashes are still not well understood. This study examines the effects of various roadway characteristics, traffic control measures and environmental factors on motorcycle crashes at different location types including expressways and intersections. Using techniques of categorical data analysis, this study has developed a set of log-linear models to investigate multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes in Singapore. Motorcycle crash risks in different circumstances have been calculated after controlling for the exposure estimated by the induced exposure technique. Results show that night-time influence increases crash risks of motorcycles particularly during merging and diverging manoeuvres on expressways, and turning manoeuvres at intersections. Riders appear to exercise more care while riding on wet road surfaces particularly during night. Many hazardous interactions at intersections tend to be related to the failure of drivers to notice a motorcycle as well as to judge correctly the speed/distance of an oncoming motorcycle. Road side conflicts due to stopping/waiting vehicles and interactions with opposing traffic on undivided roads have been found to be as detrimental factors on motorcycle safety along arterial, main and local roads away from intersections. Based on the findings of this study, several targeted countermeasures in the form of legislations, rider training, and safety awareness programmes have been recommended.

Vibrational spectroscopic study of the mineral creaseyite Cu2Pb2(Fe,Al)2(Si5O17)·6H2O – a zeolite mineral?

Vibrational spectroscopy has been used to characterise the mineral creaseyite Cu2Pb2(Fe,Al)2(Si5O17)·6H2O. The mineral is found in the oxidised zone of base metal deposits and interestingly is associated with copper silicate minerals including ajoite, kinoite, chrysocolla as well as wulfenite, willemite, mimetite and wickenburgite. Creaseyite is a mineral with zeolitic properties. A Raman band at 998 cm−1 is assigned to the SiO stretching vibration of SiO3 units. The Raman band at 1071 cm−1 is assigned to the SiO stretching vibrations of the Si2O5 units. Raman bands are found at 2750, 2902, 3162, 3470 and 3525 cm−1. The band at 3525 cm−1 is attributed to zeolitic water. Other bands are assigned to water coordinated to the metal cations. Vibrational spectroscopy enables aspects of the molecular structure of creaseyite to be determined.

Vibrational spectroscopic study of the minerals cavansite and pentagonite Ca(V4+O)Si4O10.4H2O

The bright blue minerals cavansite and pentagonite, a calcium vanadium silicate Ca(V4+O)Si4O10.4H2O, have been studied by UV–Visible, Raman and infrared spectroscopy. Cavansite shows an open porous structure with very small micron sized holes. Strong UV–Visible absorption bands are observed at around 403, 614 and 789 nm for cavansite and pentagonite. The Raman spectrum of cavansite is dominated by an intense band at 981 cm -1 and pentagonite by a band at 971 cm-1 attributed to the stretching vibrations of (SiO3)n units. Cavansite is characterised by two intense bands at 574 and 672 cm-1 whereas pentagonite by a single band at 651 cm-1. The Raman spectrum of cavansite in the hydroxyl stretching region shows bands at 3504, 3546, 3577, 3604 and 3654 cm-1 whereas pentagonite is a single band at 3532 cm_1. These bands are attributed to water coordinated to calcium and vanadium. XPS studies show that bond energy of oxygen in oxides is 530 eV, and in hydroxides -531.5 eV and for water -533.5 eV. XPS studies show a strong peak at 531.5 eV for cavansite, indicating some OH units in the structure of cavansite.

Prediction of pull-out force of multi-walled carbon nanotube (MWCNT) in sword-in-sheath mode

The pull-out force of some outer walls against other inner walls in multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) was systematically studied by molecular mechanics simulations. The obtained results reveal that the pull-out force is proportional to the square of the diameter of the immediate outer wall on the sliding interface, which highlights the primary contribution of the capped section of MWCNT to the pull-out force. A simple empirical formula was proposed based on the numerical results to predict the pull-out force for an arbitrary pull-out in a given MWCNT directly from the diameter of the immediate outer wall on the sliding interface. Moreover, tensile tests for MWCNTs with and without acid-treatment were performed with a nanomanipulator inside a vacuum chamber of a scanning electron microscope (SEM) to validate the present empirical formula. It was found that the theoretical pull-out forces agree with the present and some previous experimental results very well.

Persistent digital hyperthermia over a 48 h period does not induce laminitis in horses

Persistent digital hyperthermia, presumably due to vasodilation, occurs during the developmental and acute stages of insulin-induced laminitis. The objectives of this study were to determine if persistent digital hyperthermia is the principal pathogenic mechanism responsible for the development of laminitis. The potent vasodilator, ATP-MgCl 2 was infused continuously into the distal phalanx of the left forefoot of six Standardbred racehorses for 48h via intra-osseous infusion to promote persistent digital hyperthermia. The right forefoot was infused with saline solution and acted as an internal control. Clinical signs of lameness at the walk were not detected at 0h, 24h or 48h post-infusion. Mean±SE hoof wall temperatures of the left forefoot (29.4±0.25°C) were higher (P<0.05) than those on the right (27.5±0.38°C). Serum insulin (15.0±2.89μIU/mL) and blood glucose (5.4±0.22mM) concentrations remained unchanged during the experiment. Histopathological evidence of laminitis was not detected in any horse. The results demonstrated that digital vasodilation up to 30 °C for a period of 48. h does not trigger laminitis in the absence of hyperinsulinaemia. Thus, although digital hyperthermia may play a role in the pathogenesis of laminitis, it is not the sole mechanism involved.

Continuous intravenous infusion of glucose induces endogenous hyperinsulinaemia and lamellar histopathology in Standardbred horses

Endocrinopathic laminitis is frequently associated with hyperinsulinaemia but the role of glucose in the pathogenesis of the disease has not been fully investigated. This study aimed to determine the endogenous insulin response to a quantity of glucose equivalent to that administered during a laminitis-inducing, euglycaemic, hyperinsulinaemic clamp, over 48. h in insulin-sensitive Standardbred racehorses. In addition, the study investigated whether glucose infusion, in the absence of exogenous insulin administration, would result in the development of clinical and histopathological evidence of laminitis. Glucose (50% dextrose) was infused intravenously at a rate of 0.68 mL/kg/h for 48. h in treated horses (n = 4) and control horses (n = 3) received a balanced electrolyte solution (0.68 mL/kg/h). Lamellar histology was examined at the conclusion of the experiment. Horses in the treatment group were insulin sensitive (M value 0.039 ± 0.0012. mmol/kg/min and M-to-I ratio (100×) 0.014 ± 0.002) as determined by an approximated hyperglycaemic clamp. Treated horses developed glycosuria, hyperglycaemia (10.7 ± 0.78. mmol/L) and hyperinsulinaemia (208 ± 26.1. μIU/mL), whereas control horses did not. None of the horses became lame as a consequence of the experiment but all of the treated horses developed histopathological evidence of laminitis in at least one foot. Combined with earlier studies, the results showed that laminitis may be induced by either insulin alone or a combination of insulin and glucose, but that it is unlikely to be due to a glucose overload mechanism. Based on the histopathological data, the potential threshold for insulin toxicity (i.e. laminitis) in horses may be at or below a serum concentration of ∼200. μIU/mL.

Advanced glycation endproducts in horses with insulin-induced laminitis

Advanced glycation endproducts (AGEs) have been implicated in the pathogenesis of cancer, inflammatory conditions and diabetic complications. An interaction of AGEs with their receptor (RAGE) results in increased release of pro-inflammatory cytokines and reactive oxygen species (ROS), causing damage to susceptible tissues. Laminitis, a debilitating foot condition of horses, occurs in association with endocrine dysfunction and the potential involvement of AGE and RAGE in the pathogenesis of the disease has not been previously investigated. Glucose transport in lamellar tissue is thought to be largely insulin-independent (GLUT-1), which may make the lamellae susceptible to protein glycosylation and oxidative stress during periods of increased glucose metabolism. Archived lamellar tissue from horses with insulin-induced laminitis (n=4), normal control horses (n=4) and horses in the developmental stages (6 h, 12 h and 24 h) of the disease (n=12) was assessed for AGE accumulation and the presence of oxidative protein damage and cellular lipid peroxidation. The equine-specific RAGE gene was identified in lamellar tissue, sequenced and is now available on GenBank. Lamellar glucose transporter (GLUT-1 and GLUT-4) gene expression was assessed quantitatively with qRT-PCR in laminitic and control horses and horses in the mid-developmental time-point (24 h) of the disease. Significant AGE accumulation had occurred by the onset of insulin-induced laminitis (48 h) but not at earlier time-points, or in control horses. Evidence of oxidative stress was not found in any group. The equine-specific RAGE gene was not expressed differently in treated and control animals, nor was the insulin-dependent glucose transporter GLUT-4. However, the glucose transporter GLUT-1 was increased in lamellar tissue in the developmental stages of insulin-induced laminitis compared to control horses and the insulin-independent nature of the lamellae may facilitate AGE formation. However, due to the lack of AGE accumulation during disease development and a failure to detect an increase in ROS or upregulation of RAGE, it appears unlikely that oxidative stress and protein glycosylation play a central role in the pathogenesis of acute, insulin-induced laminitis.

Prandtl number scaling of the unsteady natural convection boundary layer adjacent to a vertical flat plate for Pr > 1 subject to ramp surface heat flux

It is found in the literature that the existing scaling results for the boundary layer thickness, velocity and steady state time for the natural convection flow over an evenly heated plate provide a very poor prediction of the Prandtl number dependency of the flow. However, those scalings provide a good prediction of two other governing parameters’ dependency, the Rayleigh number and the aspect ratio. Therefore, an improved scaling analysis using a triple-layer integral approach and direct numerical simulations have been performed for the natural convection boundary layer along a semi-infinite flat plate with uniform surface heat flux. This heat flux is a ramp function of time, where the temperature gradient on the surface increases with time up to some specific time and then remains constant. The growth of the boundary layer strongly depends on the ramp time. If the ramp time is sufficiently long, the boundary layer reaches a quasi steady mode before the growth of the temperature gradient is completed. In this mode, the thermal boundary layer at first grows in thickness and then contracts with increasing time. However, if the ramp time is sufficiently short, the boundary layer develops differently, but after the wall temperature gradient growth is completed, the boundary layer develops as though the startup had been instantaneous.

Re-examining the evidence in radiation dermatitis management literature : an overview and a critical appraisal of systematic reviews

Purpose: To provide an overview and a critical appraisal of systematic reviews (SRs) of published interventions for the prevention/management of radiation dermatitis. Methods and Materials: We searched Medline, CINAHL, Embase, and the Cochrane Library. We also manually searched through individual reference lists of potentially eligible articles and a number of key journals in the topic area. Two authors screened all potential articles and included eligible SRs. Two authors critically appraised and extracted key findings from the included reviews using AMSTAR (the measurement tool for “assessment of multiple systematic reviews”). Results: Of 1837 potential titles, 6 SRs were included. A number of interventions have been reported to be potentially beneficial for managing radiation dermatitis. Interventions evaluated in these reviews included skin care advice, steroidal/nonsteroidal topical agents, systemic therapies, modes of radiation delivery, and dressings. However, all the included SRs reported that there is insufficient evidence supporting any single effective intervention. The methodological quality of the included studies varied, and methodological shortfalls in these reviews might create biases to the overall results or recommendations for clinical practice. Conclusions: An up-to-date high-quality SR in the prevention/management of radiation dermatitis is needed to guide practice and direction for future research. We recommend that clinicians or guideline developers critically evaluate the information of SRs in their decision making.

Two decades of exceptional achievements : does the evidence support nurses to favour Cochrane systematic reviews over other systematic reviews?

Systematic reviews (SRs) are increasingly recognised as the standard approach in summarising health research and influence clinical nursing practice and health care decisions (Coster and Norman, 2009, Grimshaw and Russell, 1993 and Griffiths and Norman, 2005). High quality SRs should have a clearly stated set of objectives with pre-defined eligibility criteria for studies; an explicit reproducible methodology; a systematic search that attempts to identify all studies that would meet the eligibility criteria; an assessment of the validity of the findings of the included studies; the assessment of risk of bias; and a systematic presentation and synthesis of the characteristics of findings of the included study (Higgins and Green, 2011). Although SRs are highly regarded and are expected to be rigorous, just as other research, their quality may vary (Choi et al., 2001 and Hoving et al., 2001)...

Analytical solutions for the multi-term time-space Caputo-Riesz fractional advection-diffusion equations on a finite domain

Generalized fractional partial differential equations have now found wide application for describing important physical phenomena, such as subdiffusive and superdiffusive processes. However, studies of generalized multi-term time and space fractional partial differential equations are still under development. In this paper, the multi-term time-space Caputo-Riesz fractional advection diffusion equations (MT-TSCR-FADE) with Dirichlet nonhomogeneous boundary conditions are considered. The multi-term time-fractional derivatives are defined in the Caputo sense, whose orders belong to the intervals [0, 1], [1, 2] and [0, 2], respectively. These are called respectively the multi-term time-fractional diffusion terms, the multi-term time-fractional wave terms and the multi-term time-fractional mixed diffusion-wave terms. The space fractional derivatives are defined as Riesz fractional derivatives. Analytical solutions of three types of the MT-TSCR-FADE are derived with Dirichlet boundary conditions. By using Luchko's Theorem (Acta Math. Vietnam., 1999), we proposed some new techniques, such as a spectral representation of the fractional Laplacian operator and the equivalent relationship between fractional Laplacian operator and Riesz fractional derivative, that enabled the derivation of the analytical solutions for the multi-term time-space Caputo-Riesz fractional advection-diffusion equations. © 2012.

Numerical techniques for the variable order time fractional diffusion equation

In this paper we consider the variable order time fractional diffusion equation. We adopt the Coimbra variable order (VO) time fractional operator, which defines a consistent method for VO differentiation of physical variables. The Coimbra variable order fractional operator also can be viewed as a Caputo-type definition. Although this definition is the most appropriate definition having fundamental characteristics that are desirable for physical modeling, numerical methods for fractional partial differential equations using this definition have not yet appeared in the literature. Here an approximate scheme is first proposed. The stability, convergence and solvability of this numerical scheme are discussed via the technique of Fourier analysis. Numerical examples are provided to show that the numerical method is computationally efficient. Crown Copyright © 2012 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relative entropy rate based model selection for linear hybrid system filters of uncertain nonlinear systems

Hybrid system representations have been exploited in a number of challenging modelling situations, including situations where the original nonlinear dynamics are too complex (or too imprecisely known) to be directly filtered. Unfortunately, the question of how to best design suitable hybrid system models has not yet been fully addressed, particularly in the situations involving model uncertainty. This paper proposes a novel joint state-measurement relative entropy rate based approach for design of hybrid system filters in the presence of (parameterised) model uncertainty. We also present a design approach suitable for suboptimal hybrid system filters. The benefits of our proposed approaches are illustrated through design examples and simulation studies.

Numerical methods and analysis for a class of fractional advection-dispersion models

In this paper, a class of fractional advection–dispersion models (FADMs) is considered. These models include five fractional advection–dispersion models, i.e., the time FADM, the mobile/immobile time FADM with a time Caputo fractional derivative 0 < γ < 1, the space FADM with two sides Riemann–Liouville derivatives, the time–space FADM and the time fractional advection–diffusion-wave model with damping with index 1 < γ < 2. These equations can be used to simulate the regional-scale anomalous dispersion with heavy tails. We propose computationally effective implicit numerical methods for these FADMs. The stability and convergence of the implicit numerical methods are analysed and compared systematically. Finally, some results are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of theoretical analysis.