Applying quantile regression for modeling equivalent property damage only crashes to identify accident blackspots

Hot spot identification (HSID) aims to identify potential sites—roadway segments, intersections, crosswalks, interchanges, ramps, etc.—with disproportionately high crash risk relative to similar sites. An inefficient HSID methodology might result in either identifying a safe site as high risk (false positive) or a high risk site as safe (false negative), and consequently lead to the misuse the available public funds, to poor investment decisions, and to inefficient risk management practice. Current HSID methods suffer from issues like underreporting of minor injury and property damage only (PDO) crashes, challenges of accounting for crash severity into the methodology, and selection of a proper safety performance function to model crash data that is often heavily skewed by a preponderance of zeros. Addressing these challenges, this paper proposes a combination of a PDO equivalency calculation and quantile regression technique to identify hot spots in a transportation network. In particular, issues related to underreporting and crash severity are tackled by incorporating equivalent PDO crashes, whilst the concerns related to the non-count nature of equivalent PDO crashes and the skewness of crash data are addressed by the non-parametric quantile regression technique. The proposed method identifies covariate effects on various quantiles of a population, rather than the population mean like most methods in practice, which more closely corresponds with how black spots are identified in practice. The proposed methodology is illustrated using rural road segment data from Korea and compared against the traditional EB method with negative binomial regression. Application of a quantile regression model on equivalent PDO crashes enables identification of a set of high-risk sites that reflect the true safety costs to the society, simultaneously reduces the influence of under-reported PDO and minor injury crashes, and overcomes the limitation of traditional NB model in dealing with preponderance of zeros problem or right skewed dataset.

'Too high in human terms' : the costs of high security imprisonment. Review of Imprisoning Resistance by Bree Carlton and Intractable by Bernie Matthews.

The article discusses the issues of resistance; that is resistance by prisoners to the various manifestations of power operating in high security prisons, as well as that of attempted shifts in the regime from physical to psychological control. Other topics highlighted include legitimacy and 'official discourse', mourning and the construction of 'ungrievable lives' and the importance of finding a way out of the cycle of violence, which high security regimes perpetuate.

A multiscale road map of cancer spheroids : incorporating experimental and mathematical modelling to understand cancer progression

Computational models represent a highly suitable framework, not only for testing biological hypotheses and generating new ones but also for optimising experimental strategies. As one surveys the literature devoted to cancer modelling, it is obvious that immense progress has been made in applying simulation techniques to the study of cancer biology, although the full impact has yet to be realised. For example, there are excellent models to describe cancer incidence rates or factors for early disease detection, but these predictions are unable to explain the functional and molecular changes that are associated with tumour progression. In addition, it is crucial that interactions between mechanical effects, and intracellular and intercellular signalling are incorporated in order to understand cancer growth, its interaction with the extracellular microenvironment and invasion of secondary sites. There is a compelling need to tailor new, physiologically relevant in silico models that are specialised for particular types of cancer, such as ovarian cancer owing to its unique route of metastasis, which are capable of investigating anti-cancer therapies, and generating both qualitative and quantitative predictions. This Commentary will focus on how computational simulation approaches can advance our understanding of ovarian cancer progression and treatment, in particular, with the help of multicellular cancer spheroids, and thus, can inform biological hypothesis and experimental design.

Mathematical relationships for metal build-up on urban road surfaces based on traffic and land use characteristics

The study investigated the influence of traffic and land use parameters on metal build-up on urban road surfaces. Mathematical relationships were developed to predict metals originating from fuel combustion and vehicle wear. The analysis undertaken found that nickel and chromium originate from exhaust emissions, lead, copper and zinc from vehicle wear, cadmium from both exhaust and wear and manganese from geogenic sources. Land use does not demonstrate a clear pattern in relation to the metal build-up process, though its inherent characteristics such as traffic activities exert influence. The equation derived for fuel related metal load has high cross-validated coefficient of determination (Q2) and low Standard Error of Cross-Validation (SECV) values indicates that the model is reliable, while the equation derived for wear-related metal load has low Q2 and high SECV values suggesting its use only in preliminary investigations. Relative Prediction Error values for both equations are considered to be well within the error limits for a complex system such as an urban road surface. These equations will be beneficial for developing reliable stormwater treatment strategies in urban areas which specifically focus on mitigation of metal pollution.

Variability of metal composition and concentrations in road dust in the urban environment

Urban road dust comprises of a range of potentially toxic metal elements and plays a critical role in degrading urban receiving water quality. Hence, assessing the metal composition and concentration in urban road dust is a high priority. This study investigated the variability of metal composition and concentrations in road dust in 4 different urban land uses in Gold Coast, Australia. Samples from 16 road sites were collected and tested for selected 12 metal species. The data set was analyzed using both univariate and multivariate techniques. Outcomes of the data analysis revealed that the metal concentrations in road dust differ considerably within and between different land uses. Iron, aluminum, magnesium and zinc are the most abundant in urban land uses. It was also noted that metal species such as titanium, nickel, copper and zinc have the highest concentrations in industrial land use. The study outcomes revealed that soil and traffic related sources as key sources of metals deposited on road surfaces.

From "Secondary Punishment" to "Supermax" : the human costs of high-security regimes in Australia

“Supermax” prisons, conceived by the United States in the early 1980s, are typically reserved for convicted political criminals such as terrorists and spies and for other inmates who are considered to pose a serious ongoing threat to the wider community, to the security of correctional institutions, or to the safety of other inmates. Prisoners are usually restricted to their cells for up to twenty-three hours a day and typically have minimal contact with other inmates and correctional staff. Not only does the Federal Bureau of Prisons operate one of these facilities, but almost every state has either a supermax wing or stand-alone supermax prison. The Globalization of Supermax Prisons examines why nine advanced industrialized countries have adopted the supermax prototype, paying particular attention to the economic, social, and political processes that have affected each state. Featuring essays that look at the U.S.-run prisons of Abu Ghraib and Guantanemo, this collection seeks to determine if the American model is the basis for the establishment of these facilities and considers such issues as the support or opposition to the building of a supermax and why opposition efforts failed; the allegation of human rights abuses within these prisons; and the extent to which the decision to build a supermax was influenced by developments in the United States. Additionally, contributors address such domestic matters as the role of crime rates, media sensationalism, and terrorism in each country’s decision to build a supermax prison.

Behavioural Inhibition System response to conflicting advertisement cues: Road safety messages vs. motor vehicle promotional advertisements

This study assessed the revised Behavioural Inhibition System (BIS), as conceptualised by Gray and McNaughton’s (2000) revised RST, by exposing participants to a loss-framed road safety message (emphasising the negative consequences of speeding behaviour) and a high performance motor vehicle promotional advertisement. Licensed young drivers (N = 40, aged 17–25 years) were randomly allocated to view either the message or both the message and advertisement. Participants then completed a computerised lexical decision task prior to completing three personality measures: Corr-Cooper RST-PQ, CARROT and Q-Task. It was predicted that those with a stronger BIS would demonstrate greater processing of these mixed message cues compared to weaker BIS individuals, and that this BIS effect would only be observed in the mixed cues condition (due to simultaneous activation of the incentive and punishment systems). Preliminary findings will be discussed in the context of the influence of personality traits on health message processing.

Ghost hunting with lollies, chess and Lego : appreciating the ‘messy’ complexity (and costs) of doing difficult research in education

This paper contributes to conversations about the funding and quality of education research. The paper proceeds in two parts. Part I sets the context by presenting an historical analysis of funding allocations made to Education research through the ARC’s Discovery projects scheme between the years 2002 and 2014, and compares these trends to allocations made to another field within the Social, Behavioural and Economic Sciences assessment panel: Psychology and Cognitive Science. Part II highlights the consequences of underfunding education research by presenting evidence from an Australian Research Council Discovery project that is tracking the experiences of disaffected students who are referred to behaviour schools. The re-scoping decisions that became necessary and the incidental costs that accrue from complications that occur in the field are illustrated and discussed through vignettes of research with “ghosts” who don’t like school but who do like lollies, chess and Lego.

Predicting freeway pavement construction cost using a back-propagation neural network : a case study in Henan, China

The objective of this research was to develop a model to estimate future freeway pavement construction costs in Henan Province, China. A comprehensive set of factors contributing to the cost of freeway pavement construction were included in the model formulation. These factors comprehensively reflect the characteristics of region and topography and altitude variation, the cost of labour, material, and equipment, and time-related variables such as index numbers of labour prices, material prices and equipment prices. An Artificial Neural Network model using the Back-Propagation learning algorithm was developed to estimate the cost of freeway pavement construction. A total of 88 valid freeway cases were obtained from freeway construction projects let by the Henan Transportation Department during the period 1994−2007. Data from a random selection of 81 freeway cases were used to train the Neural Network model and the remaining data were used to test the performance of the Neural Network model. The tested model was used to predict freeway pavement construction costs in 2010 based on predictions of input values. In addition, this paper provides a suggested correction for the prediction of the value for the future freeway pavement construction costs. Since the change in future freeway pavement construction cost is affected by many factors, the predictions obtained by the proposed method, and therefore the model, will need to be tested once actual data are obtained.

Sustainability in post disaster road infrastructure recovery projects and asset management

Civil infrastructure and especially roads are being impacted with increasing frequency by flood, Tsunami, cyclone related natural and manmade disasters in the world. Responding to such events and in preparing for more regular and intense climate-change induced events in future, the road governing agencies are reviewing how postdisaster road infrastructure recovery projects are best planned and delivered. In particular, there is awareness that rebuilding such infrastructure require sustainable asset management strategies across economic, environmental and social dimensions. A comprehensive asset management framework for pre and post disaster situations can minimize negative impacts on our communities, economy and environment. This research paper is focused on post disaster management in road infrastructures and road infrastructure asset management strategies used by road authorities. Analyzing the implications of disruption to transport network and associated services is an important part of preparing local and regional responses to the impacts of disasters. This research paper will contribute to strategic infrastructure asset planning, management leading to safe, efficient and integrated transport system that supports sustainable economic, social and environmental outcomes. This paper also focuses on proper asset management, governance and engineering principles which should be followed and adopted in post disaster recovery projects to maximize sustainability in environmental, social and economic dimensions.

Residential balconies with road traffic noise : a combined source image and radiosity model

Several significant studies have been made in recent decades toward understanding road traffic noise and its effects on residential balconies. These previous studies have used a variety of techniques such as theoretical models, scale models and measurements on real balconies. The studies have considered either road traffic noise levels within the balcony space or inside an adjacent habitable room or both. Previous theoretical models have used, for example, simplified specular reflection calculations, boundary element methods (BEM), adaptations of CoRTN or the use of Sabine Theory. This paper presents an alternative theoretical model to predict the effects of road traffic noise spatially within the balcony space. The model includes a specular reflection component by calculating up to 10 orders of source images. To account for diffusion effects, a two compartment radiosity component is utilised. The first radiosity compartment is the urban street, represented as a street with building facades on either side. The second radiosity compartment is the balcony space. The model is designed to calculate the predicted road traffic noise levels within the balcony space and is capable of establishing the effect of changing street and balcony geometries. Screening attenuation algorithms are included to determine the effects of solid balcony parapets and balcony ceiling shields.

Beyond BIM: It’s not the end of the road!

Over several decades, academics around the world have investigated the necessary tools, techniques, and conditions which would allow BIM (building information modeling) to become a positive force in the world of construction. As the research results matured, BIM started to become commercially available. Researchers and many in industry soon realized that BIM, as a technological innovation, was, in and of itself, not the end point in the journey. The technical adoption of BIM has to be supported by process and culture change within organizations to make a real impact on a project (for example, see AECbytes Viewpoint #35 by Chuck Eastman, Paul Teicholz, Rafael Sacks and Kathleen Liston). Current academic research aims to understand the steps beyond BIM, which will help chart the future of our industry over the coming decades. This article describes an international research effort in this area, coordinated by the Integrated Design and Delivery Solutions (IDDS) initiative of the CIB (International Council for Research and Innovation in Building and Construction). We hope that it responds to and extends the discussion initiated by Brian Lighthart in AECbytes Viewpoint #56, which asked about who is charting future BIM directions.

Assessment of costs : challenge to validity of client agreement between party entitled to costs and its solicitors

In ASIC v Atlantic 3 Financial (Aust) Pty Ltd [2006] QCA 540 the Queensland Court of Appeal dismissed an appeal from the decision of Mullins J at first instance in ASIC v Atlantic 3 Financial (Aust) Pty LTd [2006] QSC 152, the majority concluding that the client agreement in issue was not inconsistent with s48 of the Queensland Law Society Act 1952.

Experimental and numerical characteristics of portable water-filled road safety barrier system under different impact conditions

This research has developed an innovative road safety barrier system that will enhance roadside safety. In doing so, the research developed new knowledge in the field of road crash mitigation for high speed vehicle impact involving plastic road safety barriers. This road safety barrier system has the required feature to redirecting an errant vehicle with limited lateral displacement. Research was carried out using dynamic computer simulation technique support by experimental testing. Future road safety barrier designers may use the information in this research as a design guideline to improve the performance and redirectional capability of the road safety barrier system. This will lead to better safety conditions on the roadways and potentially save lives.

Revolute joint approach to model joint mechanism in water-filled road safety barriers

Portable water-filled road barriers (PWFB) are roadside structures placed on temporary construction zones to separate work site from traffic. Recent changes in governing standards require PWFB to adhere to strict compliance in terms of lateral displacement and vehicle redirectionality. Actual PWFB test can be very costly, thus researchers resort to Finite Element Analysis (FEA) in the initial designs phase. There has been many research conducted on concrete barriers and flexible steel barriers using FEA, however not many was done pertaining to PWFB. This research probes a new technique to model joints in PWFB. Two methods to model the joining mechanism are presented and discussed in relation to its practicality and accuracy. Moreover, the study of the physical gap and mass of the barrier was investigated. Outcome from this research will benefit PWFB research and allow road barrier designers better knowledge in developing the next generation of road safety structures.