Crude oil and agricultural futures: An analysis of correlation dynamics

Correlations between oil and agricultural commodities have varied over previous decades, impacted by renewable fuels policy and turbulent economic conditions. We estimate smooth transition conditional correlation models for 12 agricultural commodities and WTI crude oil. While a structural change in correlations occurred concurrently with the introduction of biofuel policy, oil and food price levels are also key influences. High correlation between biofuel feedstocks and oil is more likely to occur when food and oil price levels are high. Correlation with oil returns is strong for biofuel feedstocks, unlike with other agricultural futures, suggesting limited contagion from energy to food markets.

Capacity building of early career researchers through cross-institutional mentoring

Most early career researchers in the first five years following doctoral qualification are faced with research challenges and opportunities, which necessitate the ability to navigate and overcome barriers, and to identify and benefit from possibilities. In this chapter, the authors outline an intentional mentoring initiative aimed at building the capacity of early career researchers within the Excellence in Research in Early Years Education Collaborative Research Network (CRN) in Australia. The initiative involved partnering early career researchers with experienced researchers and the inclusion of an early career representative on the network planning committee. The chapter discusses the many benefits for the mentee arising from the initiative including increased publication, momentum and confidence, as well as exposure to new methodologies, theoretical frameworks, and productive collaborative partnerships. It is hoped, however, that the findings will be of relevance to similar and diverse (funded/unfunded) research programs and collaborative networks wherever mentoring is applied as a capacity building strategy to assist researchers.

Measuring the multidimensions of symptoms in people with advanced stages of chronic kidney disease

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is increasing globally and in Saudi Arabia it affects approximately 8% annual increment of dialysis population. It is associated with a high symptom burden. Previous studies have largely reported on the prevalence of symptoms only in the haemodialysis population. This study examined symptom burden across disease stages and treatment groups in advanced CKD, and their correlation with demographic and clinical factors. Using a cross-sectional design, a convenience sample of 436 patients with CKD was recruited from three hospitals in Saudi Arabia. The CKD Symptom Burden Index (CKD-SBI) was used to measure 32 CKD symptoms. Demographic and clinical data were also collected. Of the sample 75.5% were receiving dialysis (haemodialysis, n = 287; peritoneal dialysis, n = 42) and 24.5% were non-dialysis (CKD stage 4, n = 69; CKD stage 5, n = 38). Average symptom reported was 13.01 ± 7.67. Fatigue and pain were common and burdensome across all symptom dimensions.Approximately one-third of participants experienced sexual symptoms. Dialysis patients reported greater symptom burden, especially patients on haemodialysis. Haemodialysis treatment, older age and being female were independently associated with greater total symptom burden. In conclusion, symptom burden is high among advanced stages of CKD, particularly among those receiving dialysis. Although fatigue, pain and sexual dysfunction are key contributors to symptom burden in CKD, these symptoms are often under-recognised and warrant routine assessment. The CKD-SBI offers a valuable tool to assess symptom burden, leading to the commencement of timely and appropriate interventions.

Video-stimulated recall in cross-cultural research in education: A case study in Vietnam

This paper examines incorporating video-stimulated recall (VSR) as a data collection technique in cross-cultural research. With VSR, participants are invited to watch video-recordings of particular events that they are involved in; they then recall their thoughts in relation to their observations of their behaviour in relation the event. The research draws on a larger PhD project completed at an Australian university that explored Vietnamese lecturers’ beliefs about learner autonomy. In cross-cultural research using the VSR technique provided significant challenges including time constraints of participants, misunderstandings of the VSR protocol and the possibility of participants’ losing face when reflecting on their teaching episodes. Adaptations to the VSR technique were required to meet the cultural challenges specific to this population, indicating a need for flexibility and awareness of the cultural context for research.

Testing against changing correlation

A test for time-varying correlation is developed within the framework of a dynamic conditional score (DCS) model for both Gaussian and Student t-distributions. The test may be interpreted as a Lagrange multiplier test and modified to allow for the estimation of models for time-varying volatility in the individual series. Unlike standard moment-based tests, the score-based test statistic includes information on the level of correlation under the null hypothesis and local power arguments indicate the benefits of doing so. A simulation study shows that the performance of the score-based test is strong relative to existing tests across a range of data generating processes. An application to the Hong Kong and South Korean equity markets shows that the new test reveals changes in correlation that are not detected by the standard moment-based test.

Avian diversification patterns across the K-Pg boundary: Influence of calibrations, datasets, and model misspecification

Birds represent the most diverse extant tetrapod clade, with ca. 10,000 extant species, and the timing of the crown avian radiation remains hotly debated. The fossil record supports a primarily Cenozoic radiation of crown birds, whereas molecular divergence dating analyses generally imply that this radiation was well underway during the Cretaceous. Furthermore, substantial differences have been noted between published divergence estimates. These have been variously attributed to clock model, calibration regime, and gene type. One underappreciated phenomenon is that disparity between fossil ages and molecular dates tends to be proportionally greater for shallower nodes in the avian Tree of Life. Here, we explore potential drivers of disparity in avian divergence dates through a set of analyses applying various calibration strategies and coding methods to a mitochondrial genome dataset and an 18-gene nuclear dataset, both sampled across 72 taxa. Our analyses support the occurrence of two deep divergences (i.e., the Palaeognathae/Neognathae split and the Galloanserae/Neoaves split) well within the Cretaceous, followed by a rapid radiation of Neoaves near the K-Pg boundary. However, 95% highest posterior density intervals for most basal divergences in Neoaves cross the boundary, and we emphasize that, barring unreasonably strict prior distributions, distinguishing between a rapid Early Paleocene radiation and a Late Cretaceous radiation may be beyond the resolving power of currently favored divergence dating methods. In contrast to recent observations for placental mammals, constraining all divergences within Neoaves to occur in the Cenozoic does not result in unreasonably high inferred substitution rates. Comparisons of nuclear DNA (nDNA) versus mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) datasets and NT- versus RY-coded mitochondrial data reveal patterns of disparity that are consistent with substitution model misspecifications that result in tree compression/tree extension artifacts, which may explain some discordance between previous divergence estimates based on different sequence types. Comparisons of fully calibrated and nominally calibrated trees support a correlation between body mass and apparent dating error. Overall, our results are consistent with (but do not require) a Paleogene radiation for most major clades of crown birds.

Characterisation of head-hardened rail steel in terms of cyclic plasticity response and microstructure for improved material modelling

Stress- and strain-controlled tests of heat treated high-strength rail steel (Australian Standard AS1085.1) have been performed in order to improve the characterisation of the said material׳s ratcheting and fatigue wear behaviour. The hardness of the rail head material has also been studied and it has been found that hardness reduces considerably below four-millimetres from the rail top surface. Historically, researchers have used test coupons with circular cross-sections to conduct cyclic load tests. Such test coupons, typically five-millimetres in gauge diameter and ten‐millimetres in grip diameter, are usually taken from the rail head sample. When there is considerable variation of material properties over the cross-section it becomes likely that localised properties of the rail material will be missed. In another case from the literature, disks 47 mm in diameter for a twin-disk rolling contact test machine were obtained directly from the rail sample and used to validate ratcheting and rolling contact fatigue wear models. The question arises: How accurate are such tests, especially when large material property gradients exist? In this research paper, the effects of rail sampling location on the ratcheting behaviour of AS1085.1 rail steel were investigated using rectangular-shaped specimens obtained at four different depths to observe their respective cyclic plasticity behaviour. The microstructural features of the test coupons were also analysed, especially the pearlite inter-lamellar spacing which showed strong correlation with both hardness and cyclic plasticity behaviour of the material. This work ultimately provides new data and testing methodology to aid the selection of valid parameters for material constitutive models to better understand rail surface ratcheting and wear.

Novel application of a discrete choice experiment to identify preferences for a national healthcare-associated infection surveillance programme: A cross-sectional study

Objective: To identify key stakeholder preferences and priorities when considering a national healthcare-associated infection (HAI) surveillance programme through the use of a discrete choice experiment (DCE). Setting: Australia does not have a national HAI surveillance programme. An online web-based DCE was developed and made available to participants in Australia. Participants: A sample of 184 purposively selected healthcare workers based on their senior leadership role in infection prevention in Australia. Primary and secondary outcomes: A DCE requiring respondents to select 1 HAI surveillance programme over another based on 5 different characteristics (or attributes) in repeated hypothetical scenarios. Data were analysed using a mixed logit model to evaluate preferences and identify the relative importance of each attribute. Results: A total of 122 participants completed the survey (response rate 66%) over a 5-week period. Excluding 22 who mismatched a duplicate choice scenario, analysis was conducted on 100 responses. The key findings included: 72% of stakeholders exhibited a preference for a surveillance programme with continuous mandatory core components (mean coefficient 0.640 (p<0.01)), 65% for a standard surveillance protocol where patient-level data are collected on infected and non-infected patients (mean coefficient 0.641 (p<0.01)), and 92% for hospital-level data that are publicly reported on a website and not associated with financial penalties (mean coefficient 1.663 (p<0.01)). Conclusions: The use of the DCE has provided a unique insight to key stakeholder priorities when considering a national HAI surveillance programme. The application of a DCE offers a meaningful method to explore and quantify preferences in this setting.