Projecting future air pollution-related mortality under a changing climate: Progress, uncertainties and research needs

Background Climate change may affect mortality associated with air pollutants, especially for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Projection studies of such kind involve complicated modelling approaches with uncertainties. Objectives We conducted a systematic review of researches and methods for projecting future PM2.5-/O3-related mortality to identify the uncertainties and optimal approaches for handling uncertainty. Methods A literature search was conducted in October 2013, using the electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 to September 2013. Discussion Fifteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most studies reported that an increase of climate change-induced PM2.5 and O3 may result in an increase in mortality. However, little research has been conducted in developing countries with high emissions and dense populations. Additionally, health effects induced by PM2.5 may dominate compared to those caused by O3, but projection studies of PM2.5-related mortality are fewer than those of O3-related mortality. There is a considerable variation in approaches of scenario-based projection researches, which makes it difficult to compare results. Multiple scenarios, models and downscaling methods have been used to reduce uncertainties. However, few studies have discussed what the main source of uncertainties is and which uncertainty could be most effectively reduced. Conclusions Projecting air pollution-related mortality requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will significantly aid policymakers in efforts to manage potential impacts of PM2.5 and O3 on mortality in the context of climate change.

A different kind of studio: Reflecting on the open studio and the artist-teacher

For more than 15 years, QUT’s Visual Arts discipline has employed a teaching model known as the ‘open studio’ in their undergraduate BFA program. Distinct from the other models of studio degrees in Australia, the open studio approach emphasizes individual practice by focusing on experimentation, collaboration and cross-disciplinary activities. However, while this activity proves to be highly relevant to exploring and participating in the ‘post medium’ nature of much contemporary art, the open studio also presents a complex of affecting challenges to the artist-teacher. The open studio, it can be argued, produces a different type of student than traditional, discipline-specific art programs – but it also produces a different kind of artist-teacher. In this paper, the authors will provide a reflection on their own experiences as artists and studio lecturers involved with the two ‘bookends’ of the QUT studio program – first year and third year. Using these separate contexts as case studies, the authors will discuss the transformative qualities of the open studio as it is adapted to the particularities of each cohort and the curricular needs of each year level. In particular, the authors will explore the way the teaching experience has influenced and positively challenged their individual (and paradoxically) discipline-focussed, studio practices. It is generally accepted that the teaching of art needs to be continually reconceptualised in response to the changing conditions of contemporary art, culture and technology. This paper will articulate how the authors have worked at that reconceptualisation within both their teaching and studio practices and so practically demonstrate the complex dialogic processes inherent to the teaching of the visual arts studio.

Psychometric properties of an Australian supportive care needs assessment tool for Indigenous patients with cancer

BACKGROUND There are significant disparities in cancer outcomes between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians. Identifying the unmet supportive care needs of Indigenous Australians with cancer is imperative to improve their cancer care. The purpose of this study was to test the psychometric properties of a supportive care needs assessment tool for Indigenous Australian (SCNAT-IP) cancer patients. METHODS The SCNAT-IP was administered to 248 Indigenous Australians diagnosed with a range of cancer types and stages, and received treatment in one of four Queensland hospitals. All 39 items were assessed for ceiling and floor effects and analysed using exploratory factor analysis (EFA) to determine construct validity. Identified factors were assessed for internal consistency and convergent validity to validated psychosocial tools. RESULTS EFA revealed a four-factor structure (physical and psychological, hospital care, information and communication, and practical and cultural needs) explaining 51% of the variance. Internal consistency of four subscales was good, with Cronbach Alpha reliability coefficients ranging from 0.70-0.89. Convergent validity was supported by significant correlations between the SCNAT-IP with the Distress Thermometer (r=0.60, p<0.001), and The Cancer Worry Chart (r=0.58, p<0.001) and a moderately strong negative correlation with Assessment of Quality of Life questionnaire (r=-0.56, p<0.001). CONCLUSION These data provide initial support for the SCNAT-IP a measure of multiple supportive care needs domains specific to Indigenous Australian cancer patients undergoing treatment.

Application of a Bayesian Network complex system model to a successful community electricity demand reduction program

Utilities worldwide are focused on supplying peak electricity demand reliably and cost effectively, requiring a thorough understanding of all the factors influencing residential electricity use at peak times. An electricity demand reduction project based on comprehensive residential consumer engagement was established within an Australian community in 2008, and by 2011, peak demand had decreased to below pre-intervention levels. This paper applied field data discovered through qualitative in-depth interviews of 22 residential households at the community to a Bayesian Network complex system model to examine whether the system model could explain successful peak demand reduction in the case study location. The knowledge and understanding acquired through insights into the major influential factors and the potential impact of changes to these factors on peak demand would underpin demand reduction intervention strategies for a wider target group.

Variation in the complex carbohydrate biosynthesis loci of Acinetobacter baumannii genomes

Extracellular polysaccharides are major immunogenic components of the bacterial cell envelope. However, little is known about their biosynthesis in the genus Acinetobacter, which includes A. baumannii, an important nosocomial pathogen. Whether Acinetobacter sp. produce a capsule or a lipopolysaccharide carrying an O antigen or both is not resolved. To explore these issues, genes involved in the synthesis of complex polysaccharides were located in 10 complete A. baumannii genome sequences, and the function of each of their products was predicted via comparison to enzymes with a known function. The absence of a gene encoding a WaaL ligase, required to link the carbohydrate polymer to the lipid A-core oligosaccharide (lipooligosaccharide) forming lipopolysaccharide, suggests that only a capsule is produced. Nine distinct arrangements of a large capsule biosynthesis locus, designated KL1 to KL9, were found in the genomes. Three forms of a second, smaller variable locus, likely to be required for synthesis of the outer core of the lipid A-core moiety, were designated OCL1 to OCL3 and also annotated. Each K locus includes genes for capsule export as well as genes for synthesis of activated sugar precursors, and for glycosyltransfer, glycan modification and oligosaccharide repeat-unit processing. The K loci all include the export genes at one end and genes for synthesis of common sugar precursors at the other, with a highly variable region that includes the remaining genes in between. Five different capsule loci, KL2, KL6, KL7, KL8 and KL9 were detected in multiply antibiotic resistant isolates belonging to global clone 2, and two other loci, KL1 and KL4, in global clone 1. This indicates that this region is being substituted repeatedly in multiply antibiotic resistant isolates from these clones.

The O-specific polysaccharide structure and gene cluster of serotype O:12 of the Yersinia pseudotuberculosis complex, and the identification of a novel L-quinovose biosynthesis gene

A major virulence factor for Yersinia pseudotuberculosis is lipopolysaccharide, including O-polysaccharide (OPS). Currently, the OPS based serotyping scheme for Y. pseudotuberculosis includes 21 known O-serotypes, with genetic and structural data available for 17 of them. The completion of the OPS structures and genetics of this species will enable the visualization of relationships between O-serotypes and allow for analysis of the evolutionary processes within the species that give rise to new serotypes. Here we present the OPS structure and gene cluster of serotype O:12, thus adding one more to the set of completed serotypes, and show that this serotype is present in both Y. pseudotuberculosis and the newly identified Y. similis species. The O:12 structure is shown to include two rare sugars: 4-C[(R)-1-hydroxyethyl]-3,6-dideoxy-d-xylo-hexose (d-yersiniose) and 6-deoxy-l-glucopyranose (l-quinovose). We have identified a novel putative guanine diphosphate (GDP)-l-fucose 4-epimerase gene and propose a pathway for the synthesis of GDP-l-quinovose, which extends the known GDP-l-fucose pathway.

Household food insecurity, diet, and weight status in a disadvantaged district of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam: A cross-sectional study

Background Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and socially acceptable access to safe, sufficient, and adequately nutritious food in order to meet their dietary needs for an active and healthy life. For high income countries and those experiencing the nutrition transition, food security is not only about the quantity of available food but also the nutritional quality as related to over- and under-nutrition. Vietnam is currently undergoing this nutrition transition, and as a result the relationship between food insecurity, socio-demographic factors and weight status is complex. The primary objective of this study was to therefore measure the prevalence of household food insecurity in a disadvantaged urban district in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) in Vietnam using a more comprehensive tool. This study also aims to examine the relationships between food insecurity and socio-demographic factors, weight status, and food intakes. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted using multi-stage sampling. Adults who were mainly responsible for cooking were interviewed in 250 households. Data was collected on socioeconomic and demographic factors using previously validated tools. Food security was assessed using the Latin American and Caribbean Household Food Security Scale (ELCSA) tool and households were categorized as food secure or mildly, moderately or severely food insecure. Questions regarding food intake were based on routinely used and validated questions in HCMC, weight status was self-reported. Results Cronbach’s alpha coefficient was 0.87, showing the ELCSA had a good internal reliability. Approximately 34.4% of households were food insecure. Food insecurity was inversely related to total household income (OR = 0.09, 95% CI = 0.04 - 0.22) and fruit intakes (OR = 2.2, 95% CI 1.31 - 4.22). There was no association between weight and food security status. Conclusions Despite rapid industrialization and modernization, food insecurity remains an important public health issue in large urban areas of HCMC, suggesting that strategies to address food insecurity should be implemented in urban settings, and not just rural locations. Fruit consumption among food insecure households may be compromised because of financial difficulties, which may lead to poorer health outcomes particularly related to non-communicable disease prevention and management.

Use of parametric modelling and climate-based metrics for the efficient design of daylight strategies in buildings with complex geometries

The purpose of this research is to assess daylight performance of buildings with climatic responsive envelopes with complex geometry that integrates shading devices in the façade. To this end two case studies are chosen due to their complex geometries and integrated daylight devices. The effect of different parameters of the daylight devices is analysed through Climate base daylight metrics.

Discovering future disaster management capability needs using scenario planning

In recent years disaster risk reduction efforts have focused on disturbances ranging from climate variability, seismic hazards, geo-political instability and public and animal health crises. These factors combined with uncertainty derived from inter-dependencies within and across systems of critical infrastructure create significant problems of governance for the private and public sector alike. The potential for rapid spread of impacts, geographically and virtually, can render a comprehensive understanding of disaster response and recovery needs and risk mitigation issues beyond the grasp of competent authority. Because of such cascading effects communities and governments at local and state-levels are unlikely to face single incidents but rather series of systemic impacts: often appearing concurrently. A further point to note is that both natural and technological hazards can act directly on socio-technical systems as well as being propagated by them: as network events. Such events have been categorised as ‘outside of the box,’ ‘too fast,’ and ‘too strange’ (Lagadec, 2004). Emergent complexities in linked systems can make disaster effects difficult to anticipate and recovery efforts difficult to plan for. Beyond the uncertainties of real world disasters, that might be called familiar or even regular, can we safely assume that the generic capability we use now will suit future disaster contexts? This paper presents initial scoping of research funded by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre seeking to define future capability needs of disaster management organisations. It explores challenges to anticipating the needs of representative agencies and groups active in before, during and after phases of emergency and disaster situations using capability deficit assessments and scenario assessment.

Thermal behavior of kaolinite–urea intercalation complex and molecular dynamics simulation for urea molecule orientation

The thermal behavior of kaolinite–urea intercalation complex was investigated by thermogravimetry–differential scanning calorimetry (TG–DSC), X-ray diffraction (XRD), and fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). In addition, the interaction mode of urea molecules intercalated into the kaolinite gallery was studied by means of molecular dynamics simulation. Three main mass losses were observed at 136 °C, in the range of 210–270 °C, and at 500 °C in the TG–DSC curves, which were, respectively, attributed to (1) melting of the surface-adsorbed urea, (2) removal of the intercalated urea, and (3) dehydroxylation of the deintercalated kaolinite. The three DSC endothermic peaks at 218, 250, and 261 °C were related to the successive removals of intercalated urea with three different distribution structures. Based on the angle between the dipole moment vector of urea and the basal surface of kaolinite, the three urea models could be described as follows: (1) Type A, the dipole moment vector is nearly parallel to the basal surface of kaolinite; (2) Type B, the dipole moment vector points to the silica tetrahedron with the angle between it and the basal surface of kaolinite ranging from 20°to 40°; and (3) Type C, the dipole moment vector is nearly perpendicular to the basal surface of kaolinite. The three distribution structures of urea molecules were validated by the results of the molecular dynamics simulation. Furthermore, the thermal behavior of the kaolinite–urea intercalation complex investigated by TG–DSC was also supported by FTIR and XRD analyses.

Cinema Cities, Media Cities: The Contemporary International Studio Complex

This report, written for the Australian Film Commission (now Screen Australia) is the first major study of the development and role of studio complexes in the spread of film production around the world. The report is divided in to five chapters. First, it examines policy-making around studios, including government support for new facilities around the world. Second, it situates the phenomenon of the contemporary studio complex within the international production ecology. Third, it provides examples of the three types of studio complex: production precinct; cinema city; and media city. Fourth, it describes the networks of production that sustain studios. And fifth it explores the place of the studio in the relationship between 'local' and international production.

Climate change, sustainability and science education

The world and its peoples are facing multiple, complex challenges and we cannot continue as we are (Moss, 2010). Earth‘s “natural capital” - nature‘s ability to provide essential ecosystem services to stabilize world climate systems, maintain water quality, support secure food production, supply energy needs, moderate environmental impacts, and ensure social harmony and equity – is seriously compromised (Gough, 2005; Hawkins, Lovins & Lovins, 1999). To further summarize, current rates of resource consumption by the global human population are unsustainable (Kitzes, Peller, Goldfinger & Wackernagel, 2007) for human and non-human species, and for future generations. Further, continuing growth in world population and global political commitment to growth economics compounds these demands. Despite growing recognition of the serious consequences for people and planet, little consideration is given, within most nations, to the social and environmental issues that economic growth brings. For example, Australia is recognised as one of the developed countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Yet, to date, responses (such as carbon pricing) have been small-scale, fragmented, and their worth disputed, even ridiculed. This is at a time referred to as ‘the critical decade’ (Hughes & McMichael, 2011) when the world’s peoples must make strong choices if we are to avert the worst impacts of climate change.

A survey of patients' experience of pain and other symptoms while receiving care from palliative care services

Context In Australia, patients at the end of life with complex symptoms and needs are often referred to palliative care services (PCSs), but little is known about the symptoms of patients receiving palliative care in different settings. Objective To explore patients’ levels of pain and other symptoms while receiving care from PCSs. Method PCSs registered through Australia's national Palliative Care Outcomes Collaboration (PCOC) were invited to participate in a survey between 2008 and 2011. Patients (or if unable, a proxy) were invited to complete the Palliative Care Outcome Scale. Results Questionnaires were completed for 1800 patients. One-quarter of participants reported severe pain, 20% reported severe ‘other symptoms’, 20% reported severe patient anxiety, 45% reported severe family anxiety, 66% experienced depressed feelings and 19% reported severe problems with self-worth. Participants receiving care in major cities reported higher levels of depressed feelings than participants in inner regional areas. Participants receiving care in community and combined service settings reported higher levels of need for information, more concerns about wasted time, and lower levels of family anxiety and depressed feelings when compared to inpatients. Participants in community settings had lower levels of concern about practical matters than inpatients. Conclusions Patients receiving care from Australian PCSs have physical and psychosocial concerns that are often complex and rated as ‘severe’. Our findings highlight the importance of routine, comprehensive assessment of patients’ concerns and the need for Specialist Palliative Care clinicians to be vigilant in addressing pain and other symptoms in a timely, systematic and holistic manner, whatever the care setting.

An efficient DSE using conditional multivariate complex Gaussian distribution

This paper presents an efficient noniterative method for distribution state estimation using conditional multivariate complex Gaussian distribution (CMCGD). In the proposed method, the mean and standard deviation (SD) of the state variables is obtained in one step considering load uncertainties, measurement errors, and load correlations. In this method, first the bus voltages, branch currents, and injection currents are represented by MCGD using direct load flow and a linear transformation. Then, the mean and SD of bus voltages, or other states, are calculated using CMCGD and estimation of variance method. The mean and SD of pseudo measurements, as well as spatial correlations between pseudo measurements, are modeled based on the historical data for different levels of load duration curve. The proposed method can handle load uncertainties without using time-consuming approaches such as Monte Carlo. Simulation results of two case studies, six-bus, and a realistic 747-bus distribution network show the effectiveness of the proposed method in terms of speed, accuracy, and quality against the conventional approach.

Improved residential electricity demand management through analysis of the customer perspective

Peak electricity demand requires substantial investment to update transmission, distribution and generation infrastructure. A successful community peak demand reduction project was examined to identify residential consumer motivational and contextual factors involved in their decision to adopt/not adopt interventions. Energy professionals actively worked to achieve community 'peer' membership and by becoming a trusted information source, facilitated voluntary home energy assessment requests from over 80% of the residential community. By combining and tailoring interventions to the specific needs and motivations of individual householders and the community, interventions promoting energy conservation and efficiency can be effective in achieving sustained reduction in peak demand.