Sequential Monte Carlo for Bayesian sequentially designed experiments for discrete data

In this paper we present a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for Bayesian sequential experimental design applied to generalised non-linear models for discrete data. The approach is computationally convenient in that the information of newly observed data can be incorporated through a simple re-weighting step. We also consider a flexible parametric model for the stimulus-response relationship together with a newly developed hybrid design utility that can produce more robust estimates of the target stimulus in the presence of substantial model and parameter uncertainty. The algorithm is applied to hypothetical clinical trial or bioassay scenarios. In the discussion, potential generalisations of the algorithm are suggested to possibly extend its applicability to a wide variety of scenarios

Load modelling : induction motors

Modelling the power systems load is a challenge since the load level and composition varies with time. An accurate load model is important because there is a substantial component of load dynamics in the frequency range relevant to system stability. The composition of loads need to be charaterised because the time constants of composite loads affect the damping contributions of the loads to power system oscillations, and their effects vary with the time of the day, depending on the mix of motors loads. This chapter has two main objectives: 1) describe the load modelling in small signal using on-line measurements; and 2) present a new approach to develop models that reflect the load response to large disturbances. Small signal load characterisation based on on-line measurements allows predicting the composition of load with improved accuracy compared with post-mortem or classical load models. Rather than a generic dynamic model for small signal modelling of the load, an explicit induction motor is used so the performance for larger disturbances can be more reliably inferred. The relation between power and frequency/voltage can be explicitly formulated and the contribution of induction motors extracted. One of the main features of this work is the induction motor component can be associated to nominal powers or equivalent motors

User behaviour modelling in a multi-dimensional environment for personalization and recommendation

Handling information overload online, from the user's point of view is a big challenge, especially when the number of websites is growing rapidly due to growth in e-commerce and other related activities. Personalization based on user needs is the key to solving the problem of information overload. Personalization methods help in identifying relevant information, which may be liked by a user. User profile and object profile are the important elements of a personalization system. When creating user and object profiles, most of the existing methods adopt two-dimensional similarity methods based on vector or matrix models in order to find inter-user and inter-object similarity. Moreover, for recommending similar objects to users, personalization systems use the users-users, items-items and users-items similarity measures. In most cases similarity measures such as Euclidian, Manhattan, cosine and many others based on vector or matrix methods are used to find the similarities. Web logs are high-dimensional datasets, consisting of multiple users, multiple searches with many attributes to each. Two-dimensional data analysis methods may often overlook latent relationships that may exist between users and items. In contrast to other studies, this thesis utilises tensors, the high-dimensional data models, to build user and object profiles and to find the inter-relationships between users-users and users-items. To create an improved personalized Web system, this thesis proposes to build three types of profiles: individual user, group users and object profiles utilising decomposition factors of tensor data models. A hybrid recommendation approach utilising group profiles (forming the basis of a collaborative filtering method) and object profiles (forming the basis of a content-based method) in conjunction with individual user profiles (forming the basis of a model based approach) is proposed for making effective recommendations. A tensor-based clustering method is proposed that utilises the outcomes of popular tensor decomposition techniques such as PARAFAC, Tucker and HOSVD to group similar instances. An individual user profile, showing the user's highest interest, is represented by the top dimension values, extracted from the component matrix obtained after tensor decomposition. A group profile, showing similar users and their highest interest, is built by clustering similar users based on tensor decomposed values. A group profile is represented by the top association rules (containing various unique object combinations) that are derived from the searches made by the users of the cluster. An object profile is created to represent similar objects clustered on the basis of their similarity of features. Depending on the category of a user (known, anonymous or frequent visitor to the website), any of the profiles or their combinations is used for making personalized recommendations. A ranking algorithm is also proposed that utilizes the personalized information to order and rank the recommendations. The proposed methodology is evaluated on data collected from a real life car website. Empirical analysis confirms the effectiveness of recommendations made by the proposed approach over other collaborative filtering and content-based recommendation approaches based on two-dimensional data analysis methods.

Data modelling with first-grade students

This paper argues for a renewed focus on statistical reasoning in the beginning school years, with opportunities for children to engage in data modelling. Results are reported from the first year of a 3-year longitudinal study in which three classes of first-grade children (6-year-olds) and their teachers engaged in data modelling activities. The theme of Looking after our Environment, part of the children’s science curriculum, provided the task context. The goals for the two activities addressed here included engaging children in core components of data modelling, namely, selecting attributes, structuring and representing data, identifying variation in data, and making predictions from given data. Results include the various ways in which children represented and re represented collected data, including attribute selection, and the metarepresentational competence they displayed in doing so. The “data lenses” through which the children dealt with informal inference (variation and prediction) are also reported.

Multi-body modelling of wagon trains for crashworthiness analysis

Three-dimensional wagon train models have been developed for the crashworthiness analysis using multi-body dynamics approach. The contributions of the train size (number of wagon) to the frontal crash forces can be identified through the simulations. The effects of crash energy management (CEM) design and crash speed on train crashworthiness are examined. The CEM design can significantly improve the train crashworthiness and the consequential vehicle stability performance - reducing derailment risks.

Mathematical modelling of tumour-induced angiogenesis

The growth of solid tumours beyond a critical size is dependent upon angiogenesis, the formation of new blood vessels from an existing vasculature. Tumours may remain dormant at microscopic sizes for some years before switching to a mode in which growth of a supportive vasculature is initiated. The new blood vessels supply nutrients, oxygen, and access to routes by which tumour cells may travel to other sites within the host (metastasize). In recent decades an abundance of biological research has focused on tumour-induced angiogenesis in the hope that treatments targeted at the vasculature may result in a stabilisation or regression of the disease: a tantalizing prospect. The complex and fascinating process of angiogenesis has also attracted the interest of researchers in the field of mathematical biology, a discipline that is, for mathematics, relatively new. The challenge in mathematical biology is to produce a model that captures the essential elements and critical dependencies of a biological system. Such a model may ultimately be used as a predictive tool. In this thesis we examine a number of aspects of tumour-induced angiogenesis, focusing on growth of the neovasculature external to the tumour. Firstly we present a one-dimensional continuum model of tumour-induced angiogenesis in which elements of the immune system or other tumour-cytotoxins are delivered via the newly formed vessels. This model, based on observations from experiments by Judah Folkman et al., is able to show regression of the tumour for some parameter regimes. The modelling highlights a number of interesting aspects of the process that may be characterised further in the laboratory. The next model we present examines the initiation positions of blood vessel sprouts on an existing vessel, in a two-dimensional domain. This model hypothesises that a simple feedback inhibition mechanism may be used to describe the spacing of these sprouts with the inhibitor being produced by breakdown of the existing vessel's basement membrane. Finally, we have developed a stochastic model of blood vessel growth and anastomosis in three dimensions. The model has been implemented in C++, includes an openGL interface, and uses a novel algorithm for calculating proximity of the line segments representing a growing vessel. This choice of programming language and graphics interface allows for near-simultaneous calculation and visualisation of blood vessel networks using a contemporary personal computer. In addition the visualised results may be transformed interactively, and drop-down menus facilitate changes in the parameter values. Visualisation of results is of vital importance in the communication of mathematical information to a wide audience, and we aim to incorporate this philosophy in the thesis. As biological research further uncovers the intriguing processes involved in tumourinduced angiogenesis, we conclude with a comment from mathematical biologist Jim Murray, Mathematical biology is : : : the most exciting modern application of mathematics.

Numerical Modelling of LiteSteel Beams Subject to Shear

Abstract: LiteSteel beam (LSB) is a new cold-formed steel hollow flange channel beam produced using a patented manufacturing process involving simultaneous cold-forming and dual electric resistance welding. It has the beneficial characteristics of torsionally rigid closed rectangular flanges combined with economical fabrication processes from a single strip of high strength steel. Although the LSB sections are commonly used as flexural members, no research has been undertaken on the shear behaviour of LSBs. Therefore experimental and numerical studies were undertaken to investigate the shear behaviour and strength of LSBs. In this research finite element models of LSBs were developed to investigate their nonlinear shear behaviour including their buckling characteristics and ultimate shear strength. They were validated by comparing their results with available experimental results. The models provided full details of the shear buckling and strength characteristics of LSBs, and showed the presence of considerable improvements to web shear buckling in LSBs and associated post-buckling strength. This paper presents the details of the finite element models of LSBs and the results. Both finite element analysis and experimental results showed that the current design rules in cold-formed steel codes are very conservative for the shear design of LSBs. The ultimate shear capacities from finite element analyses confirmed the accuracy of proposed shear strength equations for LSBs based on the North American specification and DSM design equations. Developed finite element models were used to investigate the reduction to shear capacity of LSBs when full height web side plates were not used or when only one web side plate was used, and these results are also presented in this paper.

Numerical modelling of non-load bearing light gauge cold-formed steel frame walls under fire conditions

Recently an innovative composite panel system was developed, where a thin insulation layer was used externally between two plasterboards to improve the fire performance of light gauge cold-formed steel frame walls. In this research, finite-element thermal models of both the traditional light gauge cold-formed steel frame wall panels with cavity insulation and the new light gauge cold-formed steel frame composite wall panels were developed to simulate their thermal behaviour under standard and realistic fire conditions. Suitable apparent thermal properties of gypsum plasterboard, insulation materials and steel were proposed and used. The developed models were then validated by comparing their results with available fire test results. This article presents the details of the developed finite-element models of small-scale non-load-bearing light gauge cold-formed steel frame wall panels and the results of the thermal analysis. It has been shown that accurate finite-element models can be used to simulate the thermal behaviour of small-scale light gauge cold-formed steel frame walls with varying configurations of insulations and plasterboards. The numerical results show that the use of cavity insulation was detrimental to the fire rating of light gauge cold-formed steel frame walls, while the use of external insulation offered superior thermal protection to them. The effects of real fire conditions are also presented.

Defining standards for modelling the biomechanics of the foot and ankle : a systematic review

The complex interaction of the bones of the foot has been explored in detail in recent years, which has led to the acknowledgement in the biomechanics community that the foot can no longer be considered as a single rigid segment. With the advance of motion analysis technology it has become possible to quantify the biomechanics of simplified units or segments that make up the foot. Advances in technology coupled with reducing hardware prices has resulted in the uptake of more advanced tools available for clinical gait analysis. The increased use of these techniques in clinical practice requires defined standards for modelling and reporting of foot and ankle kinematics. This systematic review aims to provide a critical appraisal of commonly used foot and ankle marker sets designed to assess kinematics and thus provide a theoretical background for the development of modelling standards.

A graphical notation for modelling events in business processes

Using complex event rules for capturing dependencies between business processes is an emerging trend in enterprise information systems. In previous work we have identified a set of requirements for event extensions for business process modeling languages. This paper introduces a graphical language for modeling composite events in business processes, namely BEMN, that fulfills all these requirements. These include event conjunction, disjunction and inhibition as well as cardinality of events whose graphical expression can be factored into flow-oriented process modeling and event rule modeling. Formal semantics for the language are provided.

Determinants of driver vs. second row occupant posture modelling

Digital human modeling (DHM), as a convenient and cost-effective tool, is increasingly incorporated into product and workplace design. In product design, it is predominantly used for the development of driver-vehicle systems. Most digital human modeling software tools, such as JACK, RAMSIS and DELMIA HUMANBUILDER provide functions to predict posture and positions for drivers with selected anthropometry according to SAE (Society of Automotive Engineers) Recommended Practices and other ergonomics guidelines. However, few studies have presented 2nd row passenger postural information, and digital human modeling of these passenger postures cannot be performed directly using the existing driver posture prediction functions. In this paper, the significant studies related to occupant posture and modeling were reviewed and a framework of determinants of driver vs. 2nd row occupant posture modeling was extracted. The determinants which are regarded as input factors for posture modeling include target population anthropometry, vehicle package geometry and seat design variables as well as task definitions. The differences between determinants of driver and 2nd row occupant posture models are significant, as driver posture modeling is primarily based on the position of the foot on the accelerator pedal (accelerator actuation point AAP, accelerator heel point AHP) and the hands on the steering wheel (steering wheel centre point A-Point). The objectives of this paper are aimed to investigate those differences between driver and passenger posture, and to supplement the existing parametric model for occupant posture prediction. With the guide of the framework, the associated input parameters of occupant digital human models of both driver and second row occupant will be identified. Beyond the existing occupant posture models, for example a driver posture model could be modified to predict second row occupant posture, by adjusting the associated input parameters introduced in this paper. This study combines results from a literature review and the theoretical modeling stage of a second row passenger posture prediction model project.

Human seat modelling using inverse dynamic musculoskeletal models

In this work a biomechanical model is used for simulation of muscle forces necessary to maintain the posture in a car seat under different support conditions.

Defining standards for modelling the biomechanics of the foot and ankle: A systematic review

The complex interaction of the bones of the foot has been explored in detail in recent years, which has led to the acknowledgement in the biomechanics community that the foot can no longer be considered as a single rigid segment. With the advance of motion analysis technology it has become possible to quantify the biomechanics of simplified units or segments that make up the foot. Advances in technology coupled with reducing hardware prices has resulted in the uptake of more advanced tools available for clinical gait analysis. The increased use of these techniques in clinical practice requires defined standards for modelling and reporting of foot and ankle kinematics. This systematic review aims to provide a critical appraisal of commonly used foot and ankle marker sets designed to assess kinematics and thus provide a theoretical background for the development of modelling standards.

Digital human modelling for vehicle design and manufacturing

Digital human modelling (DHM) has today matured from research into industrial application. In the automotive domain, DHM has become a commonly used tool in virtual prototyping and human-centred product design. While this generation of DHM supports the ergonomic evaluation of new vehicle design during early design stages of the product, by modelling anthropometry, posture, motion or predicting discomfort, the future of DHM will be dominated by CAE methods, realistic 3D design, and musculoskeletal and soft tissue modelling down to the micro-scale of molecular activity within single muscle fibres. As a driving force for DHM development, the automotive industry has traditionally used human models in the manufacturing sector (production ergonomics, e.g. assembly) and the engineering sector (product ergonomics, e.g. safety, packaging). In product ergonomics applications, DHM share many common characteristics, creating a unique subset of DHM. These models are optimised for a seated posture, interface to a vehicle seat through standardised methods and provide linkages to vehicle controls. As a tool, they need to interface with other analytic instruments and integrate into complex CAD/CAE environments. Important aspects of current DHM research are functional analysis, model integration and task simulation. Digital (virtual, analytic) prototypes or digital mock-ups (DMU) provide expanded support for testing and verification and consider task-dependent performance and motion. Beyond rigid body mechanics, soft tissue modelling is evolving to become standard in future DHM. When addressing advanced issues beyond the physical domain, for example anthropometry and biomechanics, modelling of human behaviours and skills is also integrated into DHM. Latest developments include a more comprehensive approach through implementing perceptual, cognitive and performance models, representing human behaviour on a non-physiologic level. Through integration of algorithms from the artificial intelligence domain, a vision of the virtual human is emerging.