Sequencing risk : the worst returns in their worst order

For the first of the baby boomers turning 65 years of age, after a decade littered with financial shocks (dot.com bubble, sub-prime, global financial crisis, sovereign debt), sequencing risk can represent a significant threat to their retirement nest eggs. This paper takes an outcomeoriented approach to the problem, to provide practical insights into how sequencing risk works and the critical dependency of retirement outcomes on sequencing risk. Our analysis challenges the conventional wisdom that it is the accumulated average of investment returns that matter. We show, instead, that it is the realised sequence of returns which largely determines the sustainability of retirement incomes.

Is your IT Green?

The enabling role of Information technology (IT) makes it a critical resource to invest in to achieve higher economic growth. Consequently, the pervasive use of IT amongst organizations in developing countries is gaining rapid momentum. Today, IT is no longer a support tool; it is a strategic asset that fosters sustainable competitive advantage and a driver for improved business performance. At the national level, the effective use of IT drives economic performance and social transformation. This makes IT resources a revolutionizing mechanism that is capable of bringing efficiency to all levels of the economy. But, evolution in IT is occuring at a very rapid pace. Despite the many opportunities that arise from these new developments, there is a growing concern that such rapid innovations can be detrimental to the environment. This situation puts a critical question on the table – Is Your IT Green?

Bucket attack on numeric set watermarking model and safeguards

Numeric set watermarking is a way to provide ownership proof for numerical data. Numerical data can be considered to be primitives for multimedia types such as images and videos since they are organized forms of numeric information. Thereby, the capability to watermark numerical data directly implies the capability to watermark multimedia objects and discourage information theft on social networking sites and the Internet in general. Unfortunately, there has been very limited research done in the field of numeric set watermarking due to underlying limitations in terms of number of items in the set and LSBs in each item available for watermarking. In 2009, Gupta et al. proposed a numeric set watermarking model that embeds watermark bits in the items of the set based on a hash value of the items’ most significant bits (MSBs). If an item is chosen for watermarking, a watermark bit is embedded in the least significant bits, and the replaced bit is inserted in the fractional value to provide reversibility. The authors show their scheme to be resilient against the traditional subset addition, deletion, and modification attacks as well as secondary watermarking attacks. In this paper, we present a bucket attack on this watermarking model. The attack consists of creating buckets of items with the same MSBs and determine if the items of the bucket carry watermark bits. Experimental results show that the bucket attack is very strong and destroys the entire watermark with close to 100% success rate. We examine the inherent weaknesses in the watermarking model of Gupta et al. that leave it vulnerable to the bucket attack and propose potential safeguards that can provide resilience against this attack.

Reversible and blind database watermarking using difference expansion

There has been significant research in the field of database watermarking recently. However, there has not been sufficient attention given to the requirement of providing reversibility (the ability to revert back to original relation from watermarked relation) and blindness (not needing the original relation for detection purpose) at the same time. This model has several disadvantages over reversible and blind watermarking (requiring only the watermarked relation and secret key from which the watermark is detected and the original relation is restored) including the inability to identify the rightful owner in case of successful secondary watermarking, the inability to revert the relation to the original data set (required in high precision industries) and the requirement to store the unmarked relation at a secure secondary storage. To overcome these problems, we propose a watermarking scheme that is reversible as well as blind. We utilize difference expansion on integers to achieve reversibility. The major advantages provided by our scheme are reversibility to a high quality original data set, rightful owner identification, resistance against secondary watermarking attacks, and no need to store the original database at a secure secondary storage. We have implemented our scheme and results show the success rate is limited to 11% even when 48% tuples are modified.

Reversible and blind database watermarking using difference expansion

There has been significant research in the field of database watermarking recently. However, there has not been sufficient attention given to the requirement of providing reversibility (the ability to revert back to original relation from watermarked relation) and blindness (not needing the original relation for detection purpose) at the same time. This model has several disadvantages over reversible and blind watermarking (requiring only the watermarked relation and secret key from which the watermark is detected and the original relation is restored) including the inability to identify the rightful owner in case of successful secondary watermarking, the inability to revert the relation to the original data set (required in high precision industries) and the requirement to store the unmarked relation at a secure secondary storage. To overcome these problems, we propose a watermarking scheme that is reversible as well as blind. We utilize difference expansion on integers to achieve reversibility. The major advantages provided by our scheme are reversibility to a high quality original data set, rightful owner identification, resistance against secondary watermarking attacks, and no need to store the original database at a secure secondary storage. We have implemented our scheme and results show the success rate is limited to 11% even when 48% tuples are modified.

Climate change and financial regulation : challenges for the financial sector post the Global Financial Crisis

Regulation has played a significant role in shaping the financial services sector in Australia over the past few decades. Regulatory changes have included the establishment of the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA), floating the Australian dollar, allowing foreign financial institutions to operate domestically, the introduction of the superannuation guarantee charge, and the removal of interest rate controls. As the economy emerges from the worst financial crisis since the great depression, a new force of change that is recognised as one of the most significant sources of risk and opportunity facing the business community in the foreseeable future is that of climate change. Climate change is expected to be a significant change agent in the financial services sector as extreme weather patterns, sea level rises, and atmospheric changes impact on asset values (both investment and lending), project finance, and risk products. The financial services industry will be particularly affected by these developments, both as a provider of financial products (capital, credit, investment, advice, and insurance), and also through its powerful influence on the economy in terms of capital allocation. In addition, industry constituents will be heavily impacted by government regulation in this area (reporting, emissions trading and environmental policies), with respect to their own business practices and also those of their clients. This study reports the results of interviews conducted with senior members of the finance sector working in the sustainability area to gauge their perceptions of the challenges facing the sector with respect to climate change. Our results confirm that that regulatory intervention will be critical to climate change response gaining traction and momentum. In particular, regulatory certainty will promote engagement, particularly in relation to the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS), with other developments needed in terms of information disclosure, performance and remuneration, and incentive programs. Accordingly, the significant potential risks and opportunities that climate change presents to the sector, and the broader economy, will in part be managed/realised only if a swift and significant regulatory response is achieved.

Strategies for improving safety performance of repair, maintenance, minor alteration and addition (RMAA) works

Purpose Managing and maintaining infrastructure assets are one of the indispensible tasks for many government agencies to preserve the nations' economic viability and social welfare. To reduce the expenditures over the life-cycle of an infrastructure asset and extend the period for which the asset performs effectively, proper repair and maintenance are essential. While repair, maintenance, minor alteration and addition (RMAA) sector is expanding in many developed cities, occurrences of fatalities and injuries in this sector are also soaring. The purposes of this paper are to identify and then evaluate the various strategies for improving the safety performance of RMAA works. Design/methodology/approach Semi-structured interviews and two rounds of Delphi survey were conducted for data collection. Findings Raising safety awareness of RMAA workers and selecting contractors with a good record of safety performance are the two most important strategies to improve the safety performance in this sector. Technology innovations and a pay-for-safety scheme are regarded as the two least important strategies. Originality/value The paper highlights possible ways to enhance safety of the rather under-explored RMAA sector in the construction industry.

Database relation watermarking resilient against secondary watermarking attacks

There has been tremendous interest in watermarking multimedia content during the past two decades, mainly for proving ownership and detecting tamper. Digital fingerprinting, that deals with identifying malicious user(s), has also received significant attention. While extensive work has been carried out in watermarking of images, other multimedia objects still have enormous research potential. Watermarking database relations is one of the several areas which demand research focus owing to the commercial implications of database theft. Recently, there has been little progress in database watermarking, with most of the watermarking schemes modeled after the irreversible database watermarking scheme proposed by Agrawal and Kiernan. Reversibility is the ability to re-generate the original (unmarked) relation from the watermarked relation using a secret key. As explained in our paper, reversible watermarking schemes provide greater security against secondary watermarking attacks, where an attacker watermarks an already marked relation in an attempt to erase the original watermark. This paper proposes an improvement over the reversible and blind watermarking scheme presented in [5], identifying and eliminating a critical problem with the previous model. Experiments showing that the average watermark detection rate is around 91% even with attacker distorting half of the attributes. The current scheme provides security against secondary watermarking attacks.

Predicting freeway pavement construction cost using a back-propagation neural network : a case study in Henan, China

The objective of this research was to develop a model to estimate future freeway pavement construction costs in Henan Province, China. A comprehensive set of factors contributing to the cost of freeway pavement construction were included in the model formulation. These factors comprehensively reflect the characteristics of region and topography and altitude variation, the cost of labour, material, and equipment, and time-related variables such as index numbers of labour prices, material prices and equipment prices. An Artificial Neural Network model using the Back-Propagation learning algorithm was developed to estimate the cost of freeway pavement construction. A total of 88 valid freeway cases were obtained from freeway construction projects let by the Henan Transportation Department during the period 1994−2007. Data from a random selection of 81 freeway cases were used to train the Neural Network model and the remaining data were used to test the performance of the Neural Network model. The tested model was used to predict freeway pavement construction costs in 2010 based on predictions of input values. In addition, this paper provides a suggested correction for the prediction of the value for the future freeway pavement construction costs. Since the change in future freeway pavement construction cost is affected by many factors, the predictions obtained by the proposed method, and therefore the model, will need to be tested once actual data are obtained.

Biophilic urbanism : harnessing natural elements to enhance the performance of constructed assets

Creating climate resilient, low-carbon urban environments and assets is a policy goal of many governments and city planners today, and an important issue for constructed asset owners. Stakeholders and decision makers in urban environments are also responding to growing evidence that cities need to increase their densities to reduce their footprint in the face of growing urban populations. Meanwhile, research is highlighting the importance of balancing such density with urban nature, to provide a range of health and wellbeing benefits to residents as well as to mitigate the environmental and economic impacts of heavily built up, impervious urban areas. Concurrently achieving this suite of objectives requires the coordination and cooperation of multiple stakeholder groups, with urban development and investment increasingly involving many private and public actors. Strategies are needed that can provide ‘win-win’ outcomes to benefit these multiple stakeholders, and provide immediate benefits while also addressing the emerging challenges of climate change, resource shortages and urban population growth. Within this context, ‘biophilic urbanism’ is emerging as an important design principle for buildings and urban areas. Through the use of a suite of natural design elements, biophilic urbanism has the potential to address multiple pressures related to climate change, increasing urban populations, finite resources and human’s inherent need for contact with nature. The principle directs the creation of urban environments that are conducive to life, delivering a range of benefits to stakeholders including building owners, occupiers and the surrounding community. This paper introduces the principle of biophilic urbanism and discusses opportunities for improved building occupant experience and performance of constructed assets, as well as addressing other sustainability objectives including climate change mitigation and adaptation. The paper presents an emerging process for considering biophilic design opportunities at different scales and highlights implications for the built environment industry. This process draws on findings of a study of leading cities internationally and learnings related to economic and policy considerations. This included literature review, two stakeholder workshops, and extensive industry consultation, funded by the Sustainable Built Environment National Research Centre through core project partners Western Australian Department of Finance, Parsons Brinckerhoff, Townsville City Council CitySolar Program, Green Roofs Australasia, and PlantUp.

Navigating the future of roads – considering potential impacts of environmental and social trends on road infrastructure

Providing mobility corridors for communities, enabling freight networks to transport goods and services, and a pathway for emergency services and disaster relief operations, roads are a vital component of our societal system. In the coming decades, a number of modern issues will face road agencies as a result of climate change, resource scarcity and energy related challenges that will have implications for society. To date, these issues have been discussed on a case by case basis, leading to a fragmented approach by state and federal agencies in considering the future of roads – with potentially significant cost and risk implications. Within this context, this paper summarises part of a research project undertaken within the ‘Greening the Built Environment’ program of the Sustainable Built Environment National Research Centre (SBEnrc, Australia), which identified key factors or ‘trends’ affecting the future of roads and key strategies to ensure that road agencies can continue to deliver road infrastructure that meets societal needs in an environmentally appropriate manner. The research was conducted over two years, including a review of academic and state agency literature, four stakeholder workshops in Western Australia and Queensland, and industry consultation. The project was supported financially and through peer review and contribution, by Main Roads Western Australia, QLD Department of Transport and Main Roads, Parsons Brinckerhoff, John Holland Group, and the Australian Green Infrastructure Council (AGIC). The project highlighted several potential trends that are expected to affect road agencies in the future, including predicted resource and materials shortages, increases in energy and natural resources prices, increased costs related to greenhouse gas emissions, changing use and expectations of roads, and changes in the frequency and intensity of weather events. Exploring the implications of these potential futures, the study then developed a number of strategies in order to prepare transport agencies for the associated risks that such trends may present. An unintended outcome of the project was the development of a process for enquiring into future scenarios, which will be explored further in Stage 2 of the project (2013-2014). The study concluded that regardless of the type and scale of response by the agency, strategies must be holistic in approach, and remain dynamic and flexible.

Reversible and blind database watermarking using difference expansion

Database watermarking has received significant research attention in the current decade. Although, almost all watermarking models have been either irreversible (the original relation cannot be restored from the watermarked relation) and/or non-blind (requiring original relation to detect the watermark in watermarked relation). This model has several disadvantages over reversible and blind watermarking (requiring only watermarked relation and secret key from which the watermark is detected and original relation is restored) including inability to identify rightful owner in case of successful secondary watermarking, inability to revert the relation to original data set (required in high precision industries) and requirement to store unmarked relation at a secure secondary storage. To overcome these problems, we propose a watermarking scheme that is reversible as well as blind. We utilize difference expansion on integers to achieve reversibility. The major advantages provided by our scheme are reversibility to high quality original data set, rightful owner identification, resistance against secondary watermarking attacks, and no need to store original database at a secure secondary storage.

Integrated approach for diagnostics and prognostics of HP LNG pump based on health state probability estimation

Effective machine fault prognostic technologies can lead to elimination of unscheduled downtime and increase machine useful life and consequently lead to reduction of maintenance costs as well as prevention of human casualties in real engineering asset management. This paper presents a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation technique and historical failure knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostic and prognostic system. To estimate a discrete machine degradation state which can represent the complex nature of machine degradation effectively, the proposed prognostic model employed a classification algorithm which can use a number of damage sensitive features compared to conventional time series analysis techniques for accurate long-term prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, the five different level data of typical four faults from High Pressure Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were used for the comparison of intelligent diagnostic test using five different classification algorithms. In addition, two sets of impeller-rub data were analysed and employed to predict the remnant life of pump based on estimation of health state probability using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognostics system has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for machine remnant life prediction in real life industrial applications.

Essays on momentum investing strategies

The momentum investment strategy, which buys recent winner stocks and sells recent loser stocks, earns returns that are simply too good to be explained by traditional finance theories. This thesis extends our understanding of the sources of momentum profits. The research shows that part of the seemingly anomalous returns can be explained by the market's reaction to public news, is affected by how delisting returns are calculated, and is biased by ignoring the time-varying risk of the trading strategy.

Synthetic rating procedures for railway bridges

One of the most important parts of any Bridge Management System (BMS) is the condition assessment and rating of bridges. This paper, introduces a procedure for condition assessment, based on criticality and vulnerability analysis. According to this procedure, new rating equations are developed. The inventory data is used to determine the contribution of different critical factors such as environmental effects, flood, earthquake, wind, and vehicle impacts. The criticality of the components to live load and vulnerability of the components to the above critical factors are identified. Based on the criticality and the vulnerability of the components and criticality of factors, and by using the new rating equations, the condition assessment and the rating of the railway bridges and their components at the network level will be conducted. This method for the first time incorporates structural analysis, available knowledge of risk assessment in structural engineering standards, and the experience of structural engineers in a practical way to enhance the reliability of the condition assessment and rating a network of bridges.