Systems modelling of the socio-technical aspects of residential electricity use and network peak demand

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price,managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tick box interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.

Wear particle analysis and the evolution of the plastically deformed layer on Australian rail steel

Particle analysis methodology is presented, together with the morphology of the wear debris formed during rolling contact fatigue. Wear particles are characterised by their surface topography and in terms of wear mechanism. Rail-wheel materials are subjected to severe plastic deformation as the contact loading progresses, which contributes to a mechanism of major damage in head-hardened rail steel. Most of the current methodologies involve sectioning of the rail-wheel discs to trace material damage phenomena such as crack propagation and plastic strain accumulation. This paper proposes methodology to analyse the development of the plastically deformed layer by sectioning wear particles using the focussed ion beam (FIB) milling method. Moreover, it highlights the processes of oxidation and rail surface delamination during unlubricated rolling contact fatigue.

An improved protocol for the isolation of total genomic DNA from Labyrinthulomycetes

Many protocols have been used for extraction of DNA from Thraustochytrids. These generally involve the use of CTAB, phenol/chloroform and ethanol. They also feature mechanical grinding, sonication, N2 freezing or bead beating. However, the resulting chemical and physical damage to extracted DNA reduces its quality. The methods are also unsuitable for large numbers of samples. Commercially-available DNA extraction kits give better quality and yields but are expensive. Therefore, an optimized DNA extraction protocol was developed which is suitable for Thraustochytrids to both minimise expensive and time-consuming steps prior to DNA extraction and also to improve the yield. The most effective method is a combination of single bead in TissueLyser (Qiagen) and Proteinase K. Results were conclusive: both the quality and the yield of extracted DNA were higher than with any other method giving an average yield of 8.5 µg/100 mg biomass.

Single-walled carbon nanotube-based polymer monoliths for the enantioselective nano-liquid chromatographic separation of racemic pharmaceuticals

Many protocols have been used for extraction of DNA from Thraustochytrids. These generally involve the use of CTAB, phenol/chloroform and ethanol. They also feature mechanical grinding, sonication, N2 freezing or bead beating. However, the resulting chemical and physical damage to extracted DNA reduces its quality. The methods are also unsuitable for large numbers of samples. Commercially-available DNA extraction kits give better quality and yields but are expensive. Therefore, an optimized DNA extraction protocol was developed which is suitable for Thraustochytrids to both minimise expensive and time-consuming steps prior to DNA extraction and also to improve the yield. The most effective method is a combination of single bead in TissueLyser (Qiagen) and Proteinase K. Results were conclusive: both the quality and the yield of extracted DNA were higher than with any other method giving an average yield of 8.5 µg/100 mg biomass.

Potential uses of Bayesian networks as tools for synthesis of systematic reviews of complex interventions

Bayesian networks (BNs) are tools for representing expert knowledge or evidence. They are especially useful for synthesising evidence or belief concerning a complex intervention, assessing the sensitivity of outcomes to different situations or contextual frameworks and framing decision problems that involve alternative types of intervention. Bayesian networks are useful extensions to logic maps when initiating a review or to facilitate synthesis and bridge the gap between evidence acquisition and decision-making. Formal elicitation techniques allow development of BNs on the basis of expert opinion. Such applications are useful alternatives to ‘empty’ reviews, which identify knowledge gaps but fail to support decision-making. Where review evidence exists, it can inform the development of a BN. We illustrate the construction of a BN using a motivating example that demonstrates how BNs can ensure coherence, transparently structure the problem addressed by a complex intervention and assess sensitivity to context, all of which are critical components of robust reviews of complex interventions. We suggest that BNs should be utilised to routinely synthesise reviews of complex interventions or empty reviews where decisions must be made despite poor evidence.

The role of digital screens in urban life: New opportunities for placemaking

Large digital screens are becoming prevalent across today’s cities dispersing into everyday urban spaces such as public squares and cultural precincts. Examples, such as Federation Square, demonstrate the opportunities for using digital screens to create a sense of place and to add long-term social, cultural and economic value for citizens, who live and work in those precincts. However, the challenge of implementing digital screens in new urban developments is to ensure they respond appropriately to the physical and sociocultural environment in which they are placed. Considering the increasing rate at which digital screens are being embedded into public spaces, it is surprising that the programs running on these screens still seem to be stuck in the cinematic model. The availability of advanced networking and interaction technologies offers opportunities for information access that goes beyond free-to-air television and advertising. This chapter revisits the history and current state of digital screens in urban life and discusses a series of research studies that involve digital screens as interface between citizens and the city. Instead of focusing on technological concerns, the chapter presents a holistic analysis of these studies, with the aim to move towards a more comprehensive understanding of the sociocultural potential of this new media platform, and how the digital content is linked with the spatial quality of the physical space, as well as the place and role of digital screens within the smart city movement.

Analysis of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity in PCPF-1 modeling for predicting concentrations of rice herbicides

This paper demonstrates the procedures for probabilistic assessment of a pesticide fate and transport model, PCPF-1, to elucidate the modeling uncertainty using the Monte Carlo technique. Sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the influence of herbicide characteristics and related soil properties on model outputs using four popular rice herbicides: mefenacet, pretilachlor, bensulfuron-methyl and imazosulfuron. Uncertainty quantification showed that the simulated concentrations in paddy water varied more than those of paddy soil. This tendency decreased as the simulation proceeded to a later period but remained important for herbicides having either high solubility or a high 1st-order dissolution rate. The sensitivity analysis indicated that PCPF-1 parameters requiring careful determination are primarily those involve with herbicide adsorption (the organic carbon content, the bulk density and the volumetric saturated water content), secondary parameters related with herbicide mass distribution between paddy water and soil (1st-order desorption and dissolution rates) and lastly, those involving herbicide degradations. © Pesticide Science Society of Japan.

An N-ethyl-n-nitrosourea induced corticotropin-releasing hormone promoter mutation provides a mouse model for endogenous glucocorticoid excess

Cushing's syndrome, which is characterized by excessive circulating glucocorticoid concentrations, maybe due to ACTH-dependent or -independent causes that include anterior pituitary and adrenal cortical tumors, respectively. ACTH secretion is stimulated by CRH, and we report a mouse model for Cushing's syndrome due to an N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea (ENU) induced Crh mutation at -120 bp of the promoter region, which significantly increased luciferase reporter activity and was thus a gain-of-function mutation. Crh -120/+ mice, when compared with wild-type littermates, had obesity, muscle wasting, thin skin, hair loss, and elevated plasma and urinary concentrations of corticosterone. In addition, Crh-120/+ mice had hyperglycemia, hyperfructosaminemia, hyperinsulinemia, hypercholesterolemia, hypertriglyceridemia, and hyperleptinemia but normal adiponectin. Crh -120/+ mice also had low bone mineral density, hypercalcemia, hypercalciuria, and decreased concentrations of plasma PTH and osteocalcin. Bone histomorphometry revealed Crh-120/+ mice to have significant reductions in mineralizing surface area, mineral apposition, bone formation rates, osteoblast number, and the percentage of corticoendosteal bone covered by osteoblasts, which was accompanied by an increase in adipocytes in the bone marrow. Thus, a mouse model for Cushing's syndrome has been established, and this will help in further elucidating the pathophysiological effects of glucocorticoid excess and in evaluating treatments for corticosteroid-induced osteoporosis.

Integrating LED lighting design strategies with side daylighting systems to improve interior lighting design of office buildings

A high contrast ratio between windows and surrounding walls may lead to office workers visual discomfort that could negatively affect their satisfaction and productivity. Consequently, occupants may try to adapt their working environment by closing blinds and/ or turning on the lights to enhance indoor visual comfort, which can reduce predicted energy savings. The hypothesis of this study is that reducing luminance contrast ratio on the window wall will improve window appearance which potentially will reduce visual discomfort and decrease workers interventions. Thus, this PhD research proposes a simple strategy to diminish the luminance contrast on the window wall by increasing the luminance of the areas surrounding the windows using supplementary light emitting diode (LED) systems. To test the hypothesis, this investigation will involve three experiments in different office layouts with various window types and orientations in Brisbane, Australia. It will assess user preferences for different luminance patterns in windowed offices featuring flexible, lowpower LED lighting installations that allows multiple lighting design options on the window wall. Detailed luminance and illuminance measures will be used to match quantitative lighting design assessment to user preferences.

Cyclosporin-responsive enteropathy and protracted diarrhea

We describe a child bom to unrelated parents who developed severe protracted secretory type diarrhea associated with subtotal villus atrophy and intestinal inflammation at the age of 19 months. No infectious, metabolic, or anatomical basis for this condition was identified and the child required total parenteral nutrition for a period of 18 months despite trials of special enteral formulas, steroids, and anti-inflammatory agents. This refractory “enteropathy” responded dramatically to the introduction of cyclosporin, with cessation of the secretory diarrhea, recovery from the enteropathy, and cessation of parenteral nutrition. The symptoms relapsed when cyclosporin was briefly discontinued and improved following reintroduction of this drug. This experience suggests a role for immune factors in the pathogenesis of the enteropathy in this case and that a trial of cyclosporin is worthy of consideration in similar cases. © 1990 Raven Press, Ltd., New York.

Is there a relationship between screening for diabetes related foot complications and limb amputation?

Background From the conservative estimates of registrants with the National Diabetes Supply Scheme, we will be soon passing 1.1 Million Australians affected by all types of diabetes. The diabetes complications of foot ulceration and amputation are costly to all. These costs can be reduced with appropriate prevention strategies, starting with identifying people at risk through primary care diabetic foot screening. Yet levels of diabetic foot screening in Australia are difficult to quantify. This presentation aims to report on foot screening rates as recorded in existing academic literature, national health surveys and national database reports. Methods Literature searches included diabetic foot screening that occurred in the primary care setting for populations over 2000 people from 2002 to 2014. Searches were performed using Medline and CINAHL as well as internet searches of Organisations for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries health databases. The focus is on type 1 and type 2 diabetes in adults, and not gestational diabetes or children. The two primary outcome measures were foot -screening rates as a percentage of adult diabetic population and major lower limb amputation incidence rates from standardised OECD data. Results The most recent and accurate level for Australian population review was in the AUSDIAB (Australian Diabetes and lifestyle survey) from 2004. This survey reported screening in primary care to be as low as 50%. Countries such as the United Kingdom and United States of America have much higher reported rates of foot screening (67-86%) recorded using national databases and web based initiatives that involve patients and clinicians. By comparison major amputation rates for Australia were similar to the United Kingdom at 6.5 versus 5.1 per 100,000 population, but dis-similar to the United States of America at 17 per 100,000 population. Conclusions Australian rates of diabetic foot screening in primary care centres is ambiguous. There is no direct relationship between foot screening levels in a primary care environment and major lower limb amputation, based on national health survey's and OECD data. Uptake of national registers, incentives and web-based systems improve levels of diabetic foot assessment, which are the first steps to a healthier diabetic population.

Association of microRNA 17–92 cluster host gene (MIR17HG) polymorphisms with breast cancer

Breast cancer incidence and mortality rates are increasing despite our current knowledge on the disease. Ninety-five percent of breast cancer cases correspond to sporadic forms of the disease and are believed to involve an interaction between environmental and genetic determinants. The microRNA 17–92 cluster host gene (MIR17HG) has been shown to regulate expression of genes involved in breast cancer development and progression. Study of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) located in this cluster gene could help provide a further understanding of its role in breast cancer. Therefore, this study investigated six SNPs in the MIR17HG using two independent Australian Caucasian case–control populations (GRC-BC and GU-CCQ BB populations) to determine association to breast cancer susceptibility. Genotyping was undertaken using chip-based matrix assisted laser desorption ionisation time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF) mass spectrometry (MS). We found significant association between rs4824505 and breast cancer at the allelic level in both study cohorts (GRC-BC p = 0.01 and GU-CCQ BB p = 0.03). Furthermore, haplotypic analysis of results from our combined population determined a significant association between rs4824505/rs7336610 and breast cancer susceptibility (p = 5 × 10−4). Our study is the first to show that the A allele of rs4824505 and the AC haplotype of rs4824505/rs7336610 are associated with risk of breast cancer development. However, definitive validation of this finding requires larger cohorts or populations in different ethnical backgrounds. Finally, functional studies of these SNPs could provide a deeper understanding of the role that MIR17HG plays in the pathophysiology of breast cancer.

Treatment failure in celiac disease due to coexistent exocrine pancreatic insufficiency

A 17-year-old white adolescent had a history of chronic diarrhea, delayed puberty, and growth failure. Investigations excluded cystic fibrosis, Shwachman syndrome, and endocrine causes of growth failure. Severe steatorrhea was diagnosed from fecal fat studies, and a jejunal suction biopsy showed total villus atrophy, consistent with a diagnosis of celiac diseases. Following introduction of a gluten-free diet, his appetite and growth improved, but he continued to have abdominal discomfort and loose offensive bowel motions. One year later, severe steatorrhea was present. A repeat jejunal biopsy showed partial recovery of villus architecture. Serum immunoreactive trypsinogen level was low, which was highly suggestive of exocrine pancreatic failure. Results of quantitative pancreatic stimulation test confirmed the presence of primary pancreatic insufficiency. After introduction of oral pancreatic enzyme supplements with meals, his gastrointestinal symptoms resolved and growth velocity accelerated. Previously, primary pancreatic insufficiency has only been described in elderly patients with long-standing untreated celiac disease. This case, however, emphasizes that pancreatic failure can occur with celiac disease at any age. Determination of a serum immunoreactive trypsinogen level should be considered a useful screening tool for pancreatic insufficiency in patients with celiac disease who have not responded to a gluten-free diet.

The impacts of policy change on collaborative governance networks

For many complex natural resources problems, planning and management efforts involve groups of organizations working collaboratively through networks (Agranoff, 2007; Booher & Innes, 2010). These networks sometimes involve formal roles and relationships, but often include informal elements (Edelenbos & Klijn, 2007). All of these roles and relationships undergo change in response to changes in personnel, priorities and policy. There has been considerable focus in the planning and public policy literature on describing and characterizing these networks (Mandell & Keast, 2008; Provan & Kenis, 2007). However, there has been far less research assessing how networks change and adjust in response to policy and political change. In the Australian state of Queensland, Natural Resource Management (NRM) organizations were created as lead organizations to address land and water management issues on a regional basis with Commonwealth funding and state support. In 2012, a change in state government signaled a dramatic change in policy that resulted in a significant reduction of state support and commitment. In response to this change, NRM organizations have had to adapt their networks and relationships. In this study, we examine the issues of network relationships, capacity and changing relationships over time using written surveys and focus groups with NRM CEOs, managers and planners (note: data collection events scheduled for March and April 2015). The research team will meet with each of these three groups separately, conduct an in-person survey followed by a facilitated focus group discussion. The NRM participant focus groups will also be subdivided by region, which correlates with capacity (inland/low capacity; coastal/high capacity). The findings focus on how changes in state government commitment have affected NRM networks and their relationships with state agencies. We also examine how these changes vary according to the level within the organization and the capacity of the organization. We hypothesize that: (1) NRM organizations have struggled to maintain capacity in the wake of state agency withdrawal of support; (2) NRM organizations with the lowest capacity have been most adversely affected, while some high capacity NRM organizations may have become more resilient as they have sought out other partners; (3) Network relationships at the highest levels of the organization have been affected the most by state policy change; (4) NRM relationships at the lowest levels of the organizations have changed the least, as formal relationships are replaced by informal networks and relationships.

Sleep-related crash characteristics: Implications for applying a fatigue definition to crash reports

Sleep-related (SR) crashes are an endemic problem the world over. However, police officers report difficulties in identifying sleepiness as a crash contributing factor. One approach to improving the sensitivity of SR crash identification is by applying a proxy definition post hoc to crash reports. To identify the prominent characteristics of SR crashes and highlight the influence of proxy definitions, ten years of Queensland (Australia) police reports of crashes occurring in ≥100 km/h speed zones were analysed. In Queensland, two approaches are routinely taken to identifying SR crashes. First, attending police officers identify crash causal factors; one possible option is ‘fatigue/fell asleep’. Second, a proxy definition is applied to all crash reports. Those meeting the definition are considered SR and added to the police-reported SR crashes. Of the 65,204 vehicle operators involved in crashes 3449 were police-reported as SR. Analyses of these data found that male drivers aged 16–24 years within the first two years of unsupervised driving were most likely to have a SR crash. Collision with a stationary object was more likely in SR than in not-SR crashes. Using the proxy definition 9739 (14.9%) crashes were classified as SR. Using the proxy definition removes the findings that SR crashes are more likely to involve males and be of high severity. Additionally, proxy defined SR crashes are no less likely at intersections than not-SR crashes. When interpreting crash data it is important to understand the implications of SR identification because strategies aimed at reducing the road toll are informed by such data. Without the correct interpretation, funding could be misdirected. Improving sleepiness identification should be a priority in terms of both improvement to police and proxy reporting.