Bayesian model comparison in cosmology with Population Monte Carlo

We use Bayesian model selection techniques to test extensions of the standard flat LambdaCDM paradigm. Dark-energy and curvature scenarios, and primordial perturbation models are considered. To that end, we calculate the Bayesian evidence in favour of each model using Population Monte Carlo (PMC), a new adaptive sampling technique which was recently applied in a cosmological context. The Bayesian evidence is immediately available from the PMC sample used for parameter estimation without further computational effort, and it comes with an associated error evaluation. Besides, it provides an unbiased estimator of the evidence after any fixed number of iterations and it is naturally parallelizable, in contrast with MCMC and nested sampling methods. By comparison with analytical predictions for simulated data, we show that our results obtained with PMC are reliable and robust. The variability in the evidence evaluation and the stability for various cases are estimated both from simulations and from data. For the cases we consider, the log-evidence is calculated with a precision of better than 0.08. Using a combined set of recent CMB, SNIa and BAO data, we find inconclusive evidence between flat LambdaCDM and simple dark-energy models. A curved Universe is moderately to strongly disfavoured with respect to a flat cosmology. Using physically well-motivated priors within the slow-roll approximation of inflation, we find a weak preference for a running spectral index. A Harrison-Zel'dovich spectrum is weakly disfavoured. With the current data, tensor modes are not detected; the large prior volume on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r results in moderate evidence in favour of r=0.

The study of genetic diversity and population structure of the Korean fleshy shrimp, Fenneropenaeus chinensis, using newly developed microsatellite markers

The fleshy shrimp, Fenneropenaeus chinensis, is the family of Penaeidae and one of the most economically important marine culture species in Korea. However, its genetic characteristics have never been studied. In this study, a total of 240 wild F. chinensis individuals were collected from four locations as follows: Narodo (NRD, n = 60), Beopseongpo (BSP, n = 60), Chaesukpo (CSP, n = 60), and Cheonsuman (CSM, n = 60). Genetic variability and the relationships among four wild F. chinensis populations were analyzed using 13 newly developed microsatellite loci. Relatively high levels of genetic variability (mean allelic richness = 16.87; mean heterozygosity = 0.845) were found among localities. Among the 52 population loci, 13 showed significant deviation from the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium. Neighbor-joining, principal coordinate, and molecular variance analyses revealed the presence of three subpopulations (NRD, CSM, BSP and CSP), which was consistent with clustering based on genetic distance. The mean observed heterozygosity values of the NRD, CSM, BSP, and CSP populations were 0.724, 0.821, 0.814, and 0.785 over all loci, respectively. These genetic variability and differentiation results of the four wild populations can be applied for future genetic improvement using selective breeding and to design suitable management guidelines for Korean F. chinensis culture.

Establishing turf grass increases soil greenhouse gas emissions in peri-urban environments

Urbanization is becoming increasingly important in terms of climate change and ecosystem functionality worldwide. We are only beginning to understand how the processes of urbanization influence ecosystem dynamics and how peri-urban environments contribute to climate change. Brisbane in South East Queensland (SEQ) currently has the most extensive urban sprawl of all Australian cities. This leads to substantial land use changes in urban and peri-urban environments and the subsequent gaseous emissions from soils are to date neglected for IPCC climate change estimations. This research examines how land use change effects methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes from peri-urban soils and consequently influences the Global Warming Potential (GWP) of rural ecosystems in agricultural use undergoing urbanization. Therefore, manual and fully automated static chamber measurements determined soil gas fluxes over a full year and an intensive sampling campaign of 80 days after land use change. Turf grass, as the major peri-urban land cover, increased the GWP by 415 kg CO2-e ha 1 over the first 80 days after conversion from a well-established pasture. This results principally from increased daily average N2O emissions of 0.5 g N2O ha-1 d-1 from the pasture to 18.3 g N2O ha-1 d-1 from the turf grass due to fertilizer application during conversion. Compared to the native dry sclerophyll eucalypt forest, turf grass establishment increases the GWP by another 30 kg CO2-e ha 1. The results presented in this study clearly indicate the substantial impact of urbanization on soil-atmosphere gas exchange in form of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions particularly after turf grass establishment.

The diet-related health of the Australian population and potential opportunities for the food retail sector

This report describes the diet-related health of the Australian population and identifies potential opportunities for the food retail sector.

Early post-operative mortality after major lower limb amputation: A systematic review of population and regional based studies

OBJECTIVE: Lower limb amputation is often associated with a high risk of early post-operative mortality. Mortality rates are also increasingly being put forward as a possible benchmark for surgical performance. The primary aim of this systematic review is to investigate early post-operative mortality following a major lower limb amputation in population/regional based studies, and reported factors that might influence these mortality outcomes. METHODS: Embase, PubMed, Cinahl and Psycinfo were searched for publications in any language on 30 day or in hospital mortality after major lower limb amputation in population/regional based studies. PRISMA guidelines were followed. A self developed checklist was used to assess quality and susceptibility to bias. Summary data were extracted for the percentage of the population who died; pooling of quantitative results was not possible because of methodological differences between studies. RESULTS: Of the 9,082 publications identified, results were included from 21. The percentage of the population undergoing amputation who died within 30 days ranged from 7% to 22%, the in hospital equivalent was 4-20%. Transfemoral amputation and older age were found to have a higher proportion of early post-operative mortality, compared with transtibial and younger age, respectively. Other patient factors or surgical treatment choices related to increased early post-operative mortality varied between studies. CONCLUSIONS: Early post-operative mortality rates vary from 4% to 22%. There are very limited data presented for patient related factors (age, comorbidities) that influence mortality. Even less is known about factors related to surgical treatment choices, being limited to amputation level. More information is needed to allow comparison across studies or for any benchmarking of acceptable mortality rates. Agreement is needed on key factors to be reported.

Optimal adaptive sequential spatial sampling of soil using pair-copulas

A spatial sampling design that uses pair-copulas is presented that aims to reduce prediction uncertainty by selecting additional sampling locations based on both the spatial configuration of existing locations and the values of the observations at those locations. The novelty of the approach arises in the use of pair-copulas to estimate uncertainty at unsampled locations. Spatial pair-copulas are able to more accurately capture spatial dependence compared to other types of spatial copula models. Additionally, unlike traditional kriging variance, uncertainty estimates from the pair-copula account for influence from measurement values and not just the configuration of observations. This feature is beneficial, for example, for more accurate identification of soil contamination zones where high contamination measurements are located near measurements of varying contamination. The proposed design methodology is applied to a soil contamination example from the Swiss Jura region. A partial redesign of the original sampling configuration demonstrates the potential of the proposed methodology.

Denitrification losses from an intensively managed sub-tropical pasture: Impact of soil moisture on the partitioning of N2 and N2O emissions

Intensively managed pastures in subtropical Australia under dairy production are nitrogen (N) loaded agro-ecosystems, with an increased pool of N available for denitrification. The magnitude of denitrification losses and N2:N2O partitioning in these agro-ecosystems is largely unknown, representing a major uncertainty when estimating total N loss and replacement. This study investigated the influence of different soil moisture contents on N2 and N2O emissions from a subtropical dairy pasture in Queensland, Australia. Intact soil cores were incubated over 15 days at 80% and 100% water-filled pore space (WFPS), after the application of 15N labelled nitrate, equivalent to 50 kg N ha−1. This setup enabled the direct quantification of N2 and N2O emissions following fertilisation using the 15N gas flux method. The main product of denitrification in both treatments was N2. N2 emissions exceeded N2O emissions by a factor of 8 ± 1 at 80% WFPS and a factor of 17 ± 2 at 100% WFPS. The total amount of N-N2 lost over the incubation period was 21.27 kg ± 2.10 N2-N ha−1 at 80% WFPS and 25.26 kg ± 2.79 kg ha−1 at 100% WFPS respectively. N2 emissions remained high at 100% WFPS, while related N2O emissions decreased. At 80% WFPS, N2 emissions increased constantly over time while N2O fluxes declined. Consequently, N2/(N2 + N2O) product ratios increased over the incubation period in both treatments. N2/(N2 + N2O) product ratios responded significantly to soil moisture, confirming WFPS as a key driver of denitrification. The substantial amount of fertiliser lost as N2 reveals the agronomic significance of denitrification as a major pathway of N loss for sub-tropical pastures at high WFPS and may explain the low fertiliser N use efficiency observed for these agro-ecosystems.

Non-linear response of soil N2O emissions to nitrogen fertiliser in a cotton-fallow rotation in sub-tropical Australia

Nitrogen fertiliser is a major source of atmospheric N2O and over recent years there is growing evidence for a non-linear, exponential relationship between N fertiliser application rate and N2O emissions. However, there is still high uncertainty around the relationship of N fertiliser rate and N2O emissions for many cropping systems. We conducted year-round measurements of N2O emission and lint yield in four N rate treatments (0, 90, 180 and 270 kg N ha-1) in a cotton-fallow rotation on a black vertosol in Australia. We observed a nonlinear exponential response of N2O emissions to increasing N fertiliser rates with cumulative annual N2O emissions of 0.55 kg N ha-1, 0.67kg N ha-1, 1.07 kg N ha-1 and 1.89 kg N ha-1 for the four respective N fertiliser rates while no N response to yield occurred above 180N. The N fertiliser induced annual N2O EF factors increased from 0.13% to 0.29% and 0.50% for the 90N, 180N and 270N treatments respectively, significantly lower than the IPCC Tier 1 default value (1.0 %). This non-linear response suggests that an exponential N2O emissions model may be more appropriate for use in estimating emission of N2O from soils cultivated to cotton in Australia. It also demonstrates that improved agricultural N management practices can be adopted in cotton to substantially reduce N2O emissions without affecting yield potential.

The tired foot. The effects of physical activity, energy expenditure and sleep on the diabetic foot population

Background The most common pathway to development of diabetes foot ulcers is repetitive daily activity stress on the plantar surface of the neuropathic foot. Studies suggest an association between different diabetic foot complications and physical activity. However, to the best of the authors knowledge the steps/day and sleep patterns of people with diabetic foot ulcers has yet to be investigated. This observational study aims to investigate the physical activity and sleep patterns of three groups of adults with type 2 diabetes and different foot complications Methods Participants with type 2 diabetes were recruited into three groups: 1. those with no reported foot complications (DNIL), 2. those with diagnosis of neuropathy (DPN) and 3. those with a neuropathic ulcer (DFU). Exclusion criteria included peripheral arterial disease and mobility aid use. Participants wore a SenseWear Pro 3 Armband continuously for 7 days and completed an Epworth Sleepiness Scale. The Armband is a validated automated measure of activity (walking steps, average Metabolic Equivalent Task (MET), physical activity (>3 METs) duration), energy expenditure(kJ) (total and physical activity (>3 METs)) and sleep (duration). Data on age, sex, BMI, diabetes duration and HbA1c were also collected. Results Sixty-Six (14 DNIL, 22 DPN and 30 DFU's participants were recruited; 71% males, mean age 61(±12) years, diabetes duration 13(±9) years, HbA1c 8.3(±2.8), BMI 32.6(±5.9), average METs 1.2(0.2). Significant differences were reported in mean(SD) steps/day (5,859(±2,381) in DNIL; 5,007(±3,349) in DPN and 3,271(±2,417) in DFU's and daily energy expenditure (10,868(±1,307)kJ in DNIL; 11,060(±1,916)kJ in DPN and 13,006(± 3,559) in DFU's(p <0.05). No significant differences were reported for average METs, physical activity duration or energy expenditure, sleep time or Epworth score (p>0.1). Conclusions Preliminary findings suggest people with diabetes are sedentary. Results indicate that patients with a diabetic foot ulcer work significantly less than those with neuropathy or nil complications and use significantly more energy to do so. Sleep Parameters showed no differences. Recruitment is still on going.

Ratios of T-cell immune-effectors with tumour associated macrophages and PD-1/PD-L1 axis immune-checkpoint molecules, as prognosticators in diffuse large B cell lymphoma: A population-based study

Background Risk-stratification of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) requires identification of patients with disease that is not cured despite initial R-CHOP. Although the prognostic importance of the tumour microenvironment (TME) is established, the optimal strategy to quantify it is unknown. Methods The relationship between immune-effector and inhibitory (checkpoint) genes was assessed by NanoString™ in 252 paraffin-embedded DLBCL tissues. A model to quantify net anti-tumoural immunity as an outcome predictor was tested in 158 R-CHOP treated patients, and validated in tissue/blood from two independent R-CHOP treated cohorts of 233 and 140 patients respectively. Findings T and NK-cell immune-effector molecule expression correlated with tumour associated macrophage and PD-1/PD-L1 axis markers consistent with malignant B-cells triggering a dynamic checkpoint response to adapt to and evade immune-surveillance. A tree-based survival model was performed to test if immune-effector to checkpoint ratios were prognostic. The CD4*CD8:(CD163/CD68)*PD-L1 ratio was better able to stratify overall survival than any single or combination of immune markers, distinguishing groups with disparate 4-year survivals (92% versus 47%). The immune ratio was independent of and added to the revised international prognostic index (R-IPI) and cell-of-origin (COO). Tissue findings were validated in 233 DLBCL R-CHOP treated patients. Furthermore, within the blood of 140 R-CHOP treated patients immune-effector:checkpoint ratios were associated with differential interim-PET/CT+ve/-ve expression.

Mapping the risk of soil-transmitted helminthic infections in the Philippines

Background In order to increase the efficient allocation of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) disease control resources in the Philippines, we aimed to describe for the first time the spatial variation in the prevalence of A. lumbricoides, T. trichiura and hookworm across the country, quantify the association between the physical environment and spatial variation of STH infection and develop predictive risk maps for each infection. Methodology/Principal Findings Data on STH infection from 35,573 individuals across the country were geolocated at the barangay level and included in the analysis. The analysis was stratified geographically in two major regions: 1) Luzon and the Visayas and 2) Mindanao. Bayesian geostatistical models of STH prevalence were developed, including age and sex of individuals and environmental variables (rainfall, land surface temperature and distance to inland water bodies) as predictors, and diagnostic uncertainty was incorporated. The role of environmental variables was different between regions of the Philippines. This analysis revealed that while A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura infections were widespread and highly endemic, hookworm infections were more circumscribed to smaller foci in the Visayas and Mindanao. Conclusions/Significance This analysis revealed significant spatial variation in STH infection prevalence within provinces of the Philippines. This suggests that a spatially targeted approach to STH interventions, including mass drug administration, is warranted. When financially possible, additional STH surveys should be prioritized to high-risk areas identified by our study in Luzon.

Elucidating the neuropsychological profile of apathetic syndrome and disinhibition syndrome in a brain-injured population in Oman

The purpose of this study was to compare the neuropsychological performance of two frontal dysexecutive phenotypes - disinhibited&' syndrome (DS) and &'apathetic&' syndrome (AS) following a traumatic brain injury in a non-western population, Oman. Methods: The study compared the performance of DS and AS in neuropsychological measures including those tapping into verbal reasoning ability/working memory/attention planning/goal-directed behavior and affective ranges. Results: The present analysis showed that DS and AS participants did not differ on indices measuring working memory/attention and affective ranges. However, the two cohorts differed significantly in measures of planning/goal-directed behaviour. Conclusion: This study lays the groundwork for further scrutiny in delineating the different characteristics of what has been previously labelled as frontal dysexecutive phenotype. This study indicates that DS and AS are marked with specific neuropsychological deficits.

Reflections from East Asia's ageing population: An interaction designers' challenge

As Asia experiences the demographic imbalance between working and ageing populations, the need for attention in this area is highlighted. The shift of a country's age structure that results from people having small families and living long lives, where previously they had large families and lived short lives, results in more workers and fewer dependents creating economic growth, known as the demographic dividend. However for a generation after this bulge and dividend, a disproportionate number of older people must be supported by a smaller working population, a current concern in Asia with its rapidly growing number of older adults. This extended abstract draws practical and unique insights from three of the oldest and richest nations in Asia - Japan, South Korea and China, on the perspective of interactive technology design for older adults. ICT has powerful potential to ameliorate the imbalance in the population demographic through its potential to leverage various kinds of support. As HCI researchers, this is a challenge we embrace; a challenge for the ageing society of unique individuals to exploit the technologies that they have helped to create. The paper draws lessons from key sample studies, one from each country, which aimed to understand their ageing population. The insights for interaction designers are presented in the form of a practical set of reflections to guide the authors, who are in the early stages of research on technology design for older adults.

The psychometric properties of the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K6) in a general population sample of adolescents

The 6-item Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K6; Kessler et al., 2002) is a screener for psychological distress that has robust psychometric properties among adults. Given that a significant proportion of adolescents experience mental illness, there is a need for measures that accurately and reliably screen for mental disorders in this age group. This study examined the psychometric properties of the K6 in a large general population sample of adolescents (N = 4,434; mean age = 13.5 years; 44.6% male). Factor analyses were conducted to examine the dimensionality of the K6 in adolescents and to investigate sex-based measurement invariance. This study also evaluated the K6 as a predictor of scores on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ; Goodman, 1997). The K6 demonstrated high levels of internal consistency, with the 6 items loading primarily on 1 factor. Consistent with previous research, females reported higher mean levels of psychological distress when compared with males. The identification of sex-based measurement noninvariance in the item thresholds indicated that these mean differences most likely represented reporting bias in the K6 items rather than true differences in the underlying psychological distress construct. The K6 was a fair to good predictor of abnormal scores on the SDQ, but predictive utility was relatively low among males. Future research needs to focus on refining and augmenting the K6 scale to maximize its utility in adolescents. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved)