A Bayesian network approach to modelling temporal behaviour of Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation

Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.

Give some, get some: investigating the relationship between conspicuous donation behaviour on social media and customer value in a blood donation context

Previous research has questioned the role of altruism in charitable donation and suggests that such behaviour is also motivated by self-interest, such as public recognition or emotional satisfaction. Recognising this, not-for-profit organisations have developed strategies that allow individuals to donate conspicuously, and are at an embryonic stage of turning to social media to provide such recognition. Under investigation in this paper, is the relationship between conspicuous donation behaviour (CDB) on social media and customer value, in blood donation. Online survey results, from a sample of 186 Australian blood donors, support the proposed framework. Significant relationships between self-orientated CDB and emotional value, and other-orientated CDB and social value are demonstrated. The findings provide valuable insights into the use of conspicuous donation strategies on social media as a means to add value to the donation experience, and contribute to our understanding into the under-researched areas of CDB and customer value.

Risky business : mapping ethical landscapes and negotiating governance tensions when researching female offending

Whilst there is an excellent and growing body of literature around female criminality underpinned by feminist methodologies, the nitty gritty of the methodological journey is nowhere as well detailed as it is in the context of the Higher Degree Research (HDR) thesis. Thus the purpose of this paper is threefold: i) to explore a range of feminist methodologies underpinning 20 Australian HDR theses focussing on female criminality; ii) to identify and map the governance/ethics tensions experienced by these researchers whilst undertaking high risk research in the area of female offending; and iii) to document strategies drawn from negotiations, resolutions and outcomes to a range of gate-keeping issues. By exploring the strategies used by these researchers, this paper aims to: promote discussion on feminist methodologies; highlight pathways that may be created when negotiating the challenging process of accessing data pertinent to this relatively understudied area; contribute to a community of practice; and provide useful insights into what Mason & Stubbs (2010:16) refer to as “the open and honest reflexivity through the research process by describing the assumptions, and hiccups” for future researchers navigating governance landscapes.

Invading edge vs. inner (edvin) patterns of vascularization : an interplay between angiogenic and vascular survival factors defines the clinical behaviour of non-small cell lung cancer

Neo-angiogenesis during neoplastic growth involves endothelial mitogenic and migration stimuli produced by cancer or tumour stromal cells. Although this active angiogenesis takes place in the tumour periphery, the process of vessel growth and survival in inner areas and its clinical role remain largely unexplored. The present study compared the microvessel score (MS) as well as the single endothelial cell score (ECS) in the invading edge and in inner areas of non-small cell lung carcinomas (NSCLCs). Three different patterns of vascular growth were distinguished: the edvin (edge vs. inner) type 1, where a low MS was observed in both peripheral and inner tumour areas; the edvin type 2, where a high MS was noted in the invading front but a low MS in inner areas; and the edvin type 3, where both peripheral and inner tumour areas had a high MS. The ECS was high in the invading edge in edvin type 2 and 3 cases and was sharply decreased in both types in inner areas, suggesting that endothelial cell migration is unlikely to contribute to the angiogenic process in areas away from the tumour front. Expression of the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and of thymidine phosphorylase (TP) was associated with a high MS in the invading edge. VEGF was associated with a high MS in inner areas (edvin 3), while TP expression was associated with edvin type 2, showing that VEGF (and not TP) contributes to the preservation of the inner vasculature. Both edvin type 2 and 3 cases showed an increased incidence of node metastasis, but edvin type 3 cases had a poorer prognosis, even in the N1-stage group. The present study suggests that tumour factors regulating angiogenesis and vascular survival are not identical. A possible method is reported to quantify these two parameters by comparing the MS in the invading edge and inner areas (edvin types). This observation may contribute to the evaluation of the effectiveness of different therapeutic approaches, namely vascular targeting vs. anti-angiogenesis. Copyright (C) 2000 John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.

Cross-sectional survey of the health behaviour of southeast Queensland women with cancer-treatment induced menopause : Implications for cancer and primary care nurses

Purpose Women who experience cancer treatment-induced menopause are at risk of long-term chronic morbidity. This risk can be prevented or offset with adherence to health promotion and risk reduction guidelines. The purpose of this study was to explore health behaviours in younger female survivors of cancer and the variables (quality of life and psychological distress) believed to moderate health behaviours. Design Cross-sectional survey of a convenience sample of women (n = 85) in southeast Queensland. Methods Health behaviour and health status were elicited with items from the Australian Health Survey and the Behavioural Risk Factor Surveillance System. The WHO Quality of Life (Brief) measured participants’ self-reported quality of life and their satisfaction with their health. The Brief Symptom Inventory-18 measured psychological distress. Findings Higher self-reported health status was associated with regular exercise and better quality of life. However, a substantial proportion of participants did not engage in the physical activity, dietary or cervical screening practices recommended by Australian guidelines. Conclusions The participants require education regarding the benefits of diet, exercise, weight loss and decreased alcohol intake, as well as information on future health risks and possible comorbidities. These education sessions could be addressed by a nurse-led health promotion model of care at the time of discharge or in the community.

Effective punishment experiences : the need for a more comprehensive approach to conceptualising behavioural punishers and reinforcers in a road safety context

Determining what consequences are likely to serve as effective punishment for any given behaviour is a complex task. This chapter focuses specifically on illegal road user behaviours and the mechanisms used to punish and deter them. Traffic law enforcement has traditionally used the threat and/or receipt of legal sanctions and penalties to deter illegal and risky behaviours. This process represents the use of positive punishment, one of the key behaviour modification mechanisms. Behaviour modification principles describe four types of reinforcers: positive and negative punishments and positive and negative reinforcements. The terms ‘positive’ and ‘negative’ are not used in an evaluative sense here. Rather, they represent the presence (positive) or absence (negative) of stimuli to promote behaviour change. Punishments aim to inhibit behaviour and reinforcements aim to encourage it. This chapter describes a variety of punishments and reinforcements that have been and could be used to modify illegal road user behaviours. In doing so, it draws on several theoretical perspectives that have defined behavioural reinforcement and punishment in different ways. Historically, the main theoretical approach used to deter risky road use has been classical deterrence theory which has focussed on the perceived certainty, severity and swiftness of penalties. Stafford and Warr (1993) extended the traditional deterrence principles to include the positive reinforcement concept of punishment avoidance. Evidence of the association between punishment avoidance experiences and behaviour has been established for a number of risky road user behaviours including drink driving, unlicensed driving, and speeding. We chose a novel way of assessing punishment avoidance by specifying two sub-constructs (detection evasion and punishment evasion). Another theorist, Akers, described the idea of competing reinforcers, termed differential reinforcement, within social learning theory (1977). Differential reinforcement describes a balance of reinforcements and punishments as influential on behaviour. This chapter describes comprehensive way of conceptualising a broad range of reinforcement and punishment concepts, consistent with Akers’ differential reinforcement concept, within a behaviour modification framework that incorporates deterrence principles. The efficacy of three theoretical perspectives to explain self-reported speeding among a sample of 833 Australian car drivers was examined. Results demonstrated that a broad range of variables predicted speeding including personal experiences of evading detection and punishment for speeding, intrinsic sensations, practical benefits expected from speeding, and an absence of punishing effects from being caught. Not surprisingly, being younger was also significantly related to more frequent speeding, although in a regression analysis, gender did not retain a significant influence once all punishment and reinforcement variables were entered. The implications for speed management, as well as road user behaviour modification more generally, are discussed in light of these findings. Overall, the findings reported in this chapter suggest that a more comprehensive approach is required to manage the behaviour of road users which does not rely solely on traditional legal penalties and sanctions.

Skin cancer prevention and fashion – frontier bedfellows

Problem Queensland has the highest rates of skin cancer in the world, even after wide-ranging public programs promoting sun safety awareness. To-date, public awareness campaigns on the dangers of excessive sun exposure have been highly successful. For adolescents, however, where a significant amount of lifetime sun exposure occurs, perilous exposure still ensues, despite awareness of the risks. New frontier approaches are required to target this key audience cluster, for this significant national problem. Approach For the majority of adolescents, being part of a collective norm defines their visual, attitudinal and behavioural actions and fashion has been validated as one of the most powerful forces that can form, shape and bolster these norms. Considering clothing is the easiest method to limit the amount of skin exposed to UV, fashion (in its many subtle, yet influential guises) is proposed as an avenue to advance positive sun safe practices for adolescents. Through an action-led methodology, this research explores the potential of fashion, as one of the key parts of a complex equation, to be a prime driver to facilitate sun safety for adolescents. Findings This paper advocates that fashion, as distinguishable from clothing, has the potential to positively influence sun protective behaviour. The findings go further and recommend the use of fashion as a stealth driver for sun safety advancement, for adolescents in particular, via shifts in norms of beauty and targeted generational communication strategies. This frontier approach has the potential to significantly reduce risky sun exposure in adolescence.

Child eating behaviour outcomes of an early feeding intervention to reduce risk indicators for child obesity : the NOURISH RCT

Objective Describe parent-reported child eating behaviour and maternal parenting impact outcomes of an infant feeding intervention to reduce child obesity risk. Design and Methods An assessor masked Randomised Controlled Trial (RCT) with concealed allocation of individual mother-infant dyads. The NOURISH RCT enrolled 698 first-time mothers (mean age 30.1 years, SD=5.3) with healthy term infants (51% female) aged 4.3 months (SD=1.0) at baseline. Outcomes were assessed six months post-intervention when the children were 2-years old. Mothers reported on child eating behaviours using the Child Eating Behaviour Questionnaire (CEBQ), food preferences and dietary intake using a 24-hour telephone recall. Parenting was assessed using five scales validated for use in Australia. Results Intervention effects were evident on the CEBQ overall (MANOVA P=.002) and 4/8 subscales: child satiety responsiveness (P=.03), fussiness (P=.01), emotional overeating (P<.01), and food responsiveness (P=.06). Intervention children ‘liked’ more fruits (P<.01) and fewer non-core foods and beverages (Ps=.06, .03). The intervention mothers reported greater ‘autonomy encouragement’ (P=.002) Conclusions Anticipatory guidance on protective feeding practices appears to have modest positive impacts on child eating behaviours that are postulated to reduce future obesity risk.

The influence of perpetrator and victim intoxication on perceivers' ratings of a sexual perpetrator's own awareness of wrongdoing for his sexually aggressive behaviour

Rape-perception studies have examined the influence of alcohol intoxication on perpetrator blame attributions: However, no studies have examined how intoxication affects perceptions of a sexual perpetrator’s awareness of the wrongfulness of his behaviour despite its relevance to the conceptualisation of responsibility and blame. This experiment investigated the impact of perpetrator and victim intoxication on perceptions of a perpetrator’s own awareness of wrongdoing for acquaintance rape. Undergraduate students (N = 314) read one of four rape-scenarios in which intoxication was manipulated and rated the perpetrator’s awareness of the consequences and wrongfulness of his sexual aggression. Findings supported the hypothesis that participants would assign less awareness of wrongdoing to an intoxicated, compared to sober, perpetrator. Further, males ascribed more awareness of wrongdoing to the perpetrator of an intoxicated, compared to sober, victim. Findings indicate that intoxicated sexual perpetrators are seen as not fully aware of the nature and consequences of their crime.

Risky Business : managing creative practice postgraduates

In Australia, as elsewhere, universities are being encouraged to grow their postgraduate research candidature base while at the same time there is increasing pressure on resources with which to manage the burgeoning groups. In this environment HDR supervision strategies are seen as increasingly important as research managers seek the best possible ‘fit’ for an applicant: the candidate who will provide a sound return on investment and demonstrate endurance in the pursuit of a timely completion.

Atomistic simulation of interfacial behaviour in graphene-polymer nanocomposites

Graphene–polymer nanocomposites have promising properties as new structural and functional materials. The remarkable mechanical property enhancement in these nanocomposites is generally attributed to exceptional mechanical property of graphene and possible load transfer between graphene and polymer matrix. However, the underlying strengthening and toughening mechanisms have not been well understood. In this work, the interfacial behavior of graphene-polyethylene (PE) was investigated using molecular dynamics (MD) method. The interfacial shear force (ISF) and interfacial shear stress (ISS) between graphene and PE matrix were evaluated, taking into account graphene size, the number of graphene layers and the structural defects in graphene. MD results show that the ISS at graphene-PE interface mainly distributes at each end of the graphene nanofiller within the range of 1 nm, and much larger than that at carbon nanotube (CNT)-PE interface. Moreover, it was found that the ISS at graphene-PE interface is sensitive to the layer number.

Robust recognition of human behaviour in challenging environments

Novel techniques have been developed for the automatic recognition of human behaviour in challenging environments using information from visual and infra-red camera feeds. The techniques have been applied to two interesting scenarios: Recognise drivers' speech using lip movements and recognising audience behaviour, while watching a movie, using facial features and body movements. Outcome of the research in these two areas will be useful in the improving the performance of voice recognition in automobiles for voice based control and for obtaining accurate movie interest ratings based on live audience response analysis.

Modeling predictors of risky drug use behavior among male street laborers in urban Vietnam

Background The application of theoretical frameworks for modeling predictors of drug risk among male street laborers remains limited. The objective of this study was to test a modified version of the IMB (Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills Model), which includes psychosocial stress, and compare this modified version with the original IMB model in terms of goodness-of-fit to predict risky drug use behavior among this population. Methods In a cross-sectional study, social mapping technique was conducted to recruit 450 male street laborers from 135 street venues across 13 districts of Hanoi city, Vietnam, for face-to-face interviews. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to analyze data from interviews. Results Overall measures of fit via SEM indicated that the original IMB model provided a better fit to the data than the modified version. Although the former model was able to predict a lesser variance than the latter (55% vs. 62%), it was of better fit. The findings suggest that men who are better informed and motivated for HIV prevention are more likely to report higher behavioral skills, which, in turn, are less likely to be engaged in risky drug use behavior. Conclusions This was the first application of the modified IMB model for drug use in men who were unskilled, unregistered laborers in urban settings. An AIDS prevention program for these men should not only distribute information and enhance motivations for HIV prevention, but consider interventions that could improve self-efficacy for preventing HIV infection. Future public health research and action may also consider broader factors such as structural social capital and social policy to alter the conditions that drive risky drug use among these men.

FRC erection stages dynamic behaviour under wind loads

Buffeting response of a cable-stayed bridge under construction is investigated through wind tunnel tests and numerical simulations. Two configurations of the erection stage have been considered and compared in terms of dynamic response and internal forces using the results of the experimental aeroelastic models. Moreover the results of a numerical model able to simulate the simultaneous effects of vortex shedding from tower and aeroelastic response of the deck are compared to the wind tunnel ones.