Meta-analysis of prevalence

Meta-analysis is a method to obtain a weighted average of results from various studies. In addition to pooling effect sizes, meta-analysis can also be used to estimate disease frequencies, such as incidence and prevalence. In this article we present methods for the meta-analysis of prevalence. We discuss the logit and double arcsine transformations to stabilise the variance. We note the special situation of multiple category prevalence, and propose solutions to the problems that arise. We describe the implementation of these methods in the MetaXL software, and present a simulation study and the example of multiple sclerosis from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 project. We conclude that the double arcsine transformation is preferred over the logit, and that the MetaXL implementation of multiple category prevalence is an improvement in the methodology of the meta-analysis of prevalence.

Review of the long-term disability associated with hip fractures

Objectives To determine the proportion of hip fracture patients who experience long-term disability and to re-estimate the resulting burden of disease associated with hip fractures in Australia in 2003. Methods A literature review of the functional outcome following a hip fracture (keywords: morbidity, treatment outcome, disability, quality of life, recovery of function, hip fractures, and femoral neck fractures) was carried out using PubMed and Ovid MEDLINE. Results A range of scales and outcome measures are used to evaluate recovery following a hip fracture. Based on the available evidence on restrictions in activities of daily living, 29% of hip fracture cases in the elderly do not reach their pre-fracture levels 1 year post-fracture. Those who do recover tend to reach their pre-fracture levels of functioning at around 6 months. These new assumptions result in 8251 years lived with disability for hip fractures in Australia in 2003, a 4.5-fold increase compared with the previous calculation based on Global Burden of Disease assumptions that only 5% of hip fractures lead to long-term disability and that the duration of short-term disability is just 51 days. Conclusions The original assumptions used in burden of disease studies grossly underestimate the long-term disability from hip fractures. The long-term consequences of other injuries may similarly have been underestimated and need to be re-examined. This has important implications for modelling the cost-effectiveness of preventive interventions where disability-adjusted life years are used as a measure of health outcome.

Provincial mortality in South Africa, 2000 - priority-setting for now and a benchmark for the future

Background. Cause-of-death statistics are an essential component of health information. Despite improvements, underregistration and misclassification of causes make it difficult to interpret the official death statistics. Objective. To estimate consistent cause-specific death rates for the year 2000 and to identify the leading causes of death and premature mortality in the provinces. Methods. Total number of deaths and population size were estimated using the Actuarial Society of South Africa ASSA2000 AIDS and demographic model. Cause-of-death profiles based on Statistics South Africa's 15% sample, adjusted for misclassification of deaths due to ill-defined causes and AIDS deaths due to indicator conditions, were applied to the total deaths by age and sex. Age-standardised rates and years of life lost were calculated using age weighting and discounting. Results. Life expectancy in KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga is about 10 years lower than that in the Western Cape, the province with the lowest mortality rate. HIV/AIDS is the leading cause of premature mortality for all provinces. Mortality due to pre-transitional causes, such as diarrhoea, is more pronounced in the poorer and more rural provinces. In contrast, non-communicable disease mortality is similar across all provinces, although the cause profiles differ. Injury mortality rates are particularly high in provinces with large metropolitan areas and in Mpumalanga. Conclusion. The quadruple burden experienced in all provinces requires a broad range of interventions, including improved access to health care; ensuring that basic needs such as those related to water and sanitation are met; disease and injury prevention; and promotion of a healthy lifestyle. High death rates as a result of HIV/AIDS highlight the urgent need to accelerate the implementation of the treatment and prevention plan. In addition, there is an urgent need to improve the cause-of-death data system to provide reliable cause-of-death statistics at health district level.

A clarion call for action based on refined DALY estimates for South Africa

Initial estimates of the burden of disease in South Africa in 20001 have been revised on the basis of additional data to estimate the disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for single causes for the first time in South Africa. The findings highlight the fact that despite uncertainty in the estimates, they provide important information to guide public health responses to improve the health of the nation...

Global variation in the prevalence and incidence of major depressive disorder : a systematic review of the epidemiological literature

Background Summarizing the epidemiology of major depressive disorder (MDD) at a global level is complicated by significant heterogeneity in the data. The aim of this study is to present a global summary of the prevalence and incidence of MDD, accounting for sources of bias, and dealing with heterogeneity. Findings are informing MDD burden quantification in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 Study. Method A systematic review of prevalence and incidence of MDD was undertaken. Electronic databases Medline, PsycINFO and EMBASE were searched. Community-representative studies adhering to suitable diagnostic nomenclature were included. A meta-regression was conducted to explore sources of heterogeneity in prevalence and guide the stratification of data in a meta-analysis. Results The literature search identified 116 prevalence and four incidence studies. Prevalence period, sex, year of study, depression subtype, survey instrument, age and region were significant determinants of prevalence, explaining 57.7% of the variability between studies. The global point prevalence of MDD, adjusting for methodological differences, was 4.7% (4.4–5.0%). The pooled annual incidence was 3.0% (2.4–3.8%), clearly at odds with the pooled prevalence estimates and the previously reported average duration of 30 weeks for an episode of MDD. Conclusions Our findings provide a comprehensive and up-to-date profile of the prevalence of MDD globally. Region and study methodology influenced the prevalence of MDD. This needs to be considered in the GBD 2010 study and in investigations into the ecological determinants of MDD. Good-quality estimates from low-/middle-income countries were sparse. More accurate data on incidence are also required.

Molecular profiling of exudate from chronic ulcerated wounds

Non-healing wounds represent a significant burden to healthcare systems and societies worldwide. Current best practice treatments of chronic wounds can require patients to undergo extensive periods of therapy without any positive outcome. This consumes substantial healthcare resources and severely impacts patient quality of life. At present, there are no measures to predict a patient's response to best practice care. The hypothesis of this thesis was that biochemical markers could be found within the wound fluid of chronic ulcers and these markers could predict the healing outcome of an ulcer undergoing best practice care. Discovery phase proteomic and mass spectrometry techniques were utilised to determine novel proteins that correlated with the healing outcome of ulcers. These candidate biomarkers could be developed into simple dip-stick tools for use in clinical practice. This would aid clinicians in the choice of effective wound management strategies to address hard-to-heal wounds.

Can we do better? Researchers' experiences with ethical review boards on projects with later life as a focus

The goal of this study was to describe researchers' experiences in submitting ethical proposals focused on older adult populations, including studies with persons with dementia, to ethical review boards. Ethical approval was granted for an online survey. Researchers were recruited via listservs and snowballing techniques. Participants included 157 persons (73% female) from Australia and the United States, with a mean age of 46 (±13). Six main issues were encountered by researchers who participated in this survey. In descending order, these included questions regarding: informed consent and information requirements (61.1%), participants' vulnerability, particularly for those with cognitive impairments (58.6%), participant burden (44.6%), data access (29.3%), adverse effects of data collection/intervention (26.8%), and study methodology (25.5%). An inductive content analysis of responses revealed a range of encounters with ethical review panels spanning positive, negative, and neutral experiences. Concerns voiced about ethical review boards included committees being overly focused on legal risk, as well as not always hearing the voice of older research participants, both potential and actual. Respondents noted inability to move forward on studies, as well as loss of researchers and participant groups from gerontological and clinical research as a result of negative interactions with ethics committees. Positive interactions with the committees reinforced researchers' need to carefully construct their research approaches with persons with dementia in particular. Suggested guidelines for committees when dealing with ethics applications involving older adults include self-reflecting on potential biases and stereotypes, and seeking further clarification and information from gerontological researchers before arriving at decisions.

The Thoughts Questionnaire (TQ) for family caregivers of people with dementia

Objectives: To develop a new measure of dysfunctional thoughts for family caregivers of people living with dementia. These thoughts can contribute to negative outcomes, but they may be modifiable. Method: A stepwise process was used to develop the Thoughts Questionnaire, commencing with item generation, concept mapping, and pilot testing in a sample of professional and nonprofessional caregivers of people with dementia (n = 18). Next, an independent sample of 35 family caregivers of people with dementia (30 female; M age = 64.30, standard deviation = 10.65) completed: (a) the Thoughts Questionnaire; (b) an existing measure of dysfunctional thoughts, the Dementia Thoughts Caregivers Questionnaire; and (c) separate validated measures of depressive symptoms, caregiver stress, and coping, respectively. Results: The level of agreement with dysfunctional thought statements from the Dementia Thoughts Caregivers Questionnaire and Thoughts Questionnaire was low. However, a small number of Thoughts Questionnaire statements were strongly endorsed by over 85% of the sample. Both dysfunctional thought measures had adequate reliability, but total scores were not significantly intercorrelated (r = .287, p = .095). Only the Thoughts Questionnaire was significantly, positively correlated with most caregiver stress measures. Thoughts Questionnaire items required a much lower reading level than the Dementia Thoughts Caregivers Questionnaire items. Discussion: This study provides preliminary data on a tool for assessing the negative role-related thoughts that family caregivers of people with dementia may experience. Given that these thoughts are implicated in depression but they may be modified, the capacity to identify dysfunctional thoughts may prove useful in caregiver support programs.

Interpersonal violence : an important risk factor for disease and injury in South Africa

Background Burden of disease estimates for South Africa have highlighted the particularly high rates of injuries related to interpersonal violence compared with other regions of the world, but these figures tell only part of the story. In addition to direct physical injury, violence survivors are at an increased risk of a wide range of psychological and behavioral problems. This study aimed to comprehensively quantify the excess disease burden attributable to exposure to interpersonal violence as a risk factor for disease and injury in South Africa. Methods The World Health Organization framework of interpersonal violence was adapted. Physical injury mortality and disability were categorically attributed to interpersonal violence. In addition, exposure to child sexual abuse and intimate partner violence, subcategories of interpersonal violence, were treated as risk factors for disease and injury using counterfactual estimation and comparative risk assessment methods. Adjustments were made to account for the combined exposure state of having experienced both child sexual abuse and intimate partner violence. Results Of the 17 risk factors included in the South African Comparative Risk Assessment study, interpersonal violence was the second leading cause of healthy years of life lost, after unsafe sex, accounting for 1.7 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) or 10.5% of all DALYs (95% uncertainty interval: 8.5%-12.5%) in 2000. In women, intimate partner violence accounted for 50% and child sexual abuse for 32% of the total attributable DALYs. Conclusions The implications of our findings are that estimates that include only the direct injury burden seriously underrepresent the full health impact of interpersonal violence. Violence is an important direct and indirect cause of health loss and should be recognized as a priority health problem as well as a human rights and social issue. This study highlights the difficulties in measuring the disease burden from interpersonal violence as a risk factor and the need to improve the epidemiological data on the prevalence and risks for the different forms of interpersonal violence to complete the picture. Given the extent of the burden, it is essential that innovative research be supported to identify social policy and other interventions that address both the individual and societal aspects of violence.

What is the scale of intimate partner homicide?

Intimate partner homicides are fatal violent attacks perpetrated by intimate partners, and are often the extreme and unplanned consequence of abusive relationships. Although recognised as an important risk factor for death and disability among women, previous country-level assessments and the recent Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010)4 have not considered the extent of intimate partner violence among male victims...

The long-term health consequences of child physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect : a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Child sexual abuse is considered a modifiable risk factor for mental disorders across the life course. However the long-term consequences of other forms of child maltreatment have not yet been systematically examined. The aim of this study was to summarise the evidence relating to the possible relationship between child physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect, and subsequent mental and physical health outcomes. Methods and Findings A systematic review was conducted using the Medline, EMBASE, and PsycINFO electronic databases up to 26 June 2012. Published cohort, cross-sectional, and case-control studies that examined non-sexual child maltreatment as a risk factor for loss of health were included. All meta-analyses were based on quality-effects models. Out of 285 articles assessed for eligibility, 124 studies satisfied the pre-determined inclusion criteria for meta-analysis. Statistically significant associations were observed between physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect and depressive disorders (physical abuse [odds ratio (OR) = 1.54; 95% CI 1.16–2.04], emotional abuse [OR = 3.06; 95% CI 2.43–3.85], and neglect [OR = 2.11; 95% CI 1.61–2.77]); drug use (physical abuse [OR = 1.92; 95% CI 1.67–2.20], emotional abuse [OR = 1.41; 95% CI 1.11–1.79], and neglect [OR = 1.36; 95% CI 1.21–1.54]); suicide attempts (physical abuse [OR = 3.40; 95% CI 2.17–5.32], emotional abuse [OR = 3.37; 95% CI 2.44–4.67], and neglect [OR = 1.95; 95% CI 1.13–3.37]); and sexually transmitted infections and risky sexual behaviour (physical abuse [OR = 1.78; 95% CI 1.50–2.10], emotional abuse [OR = 1.75; 95% CI 1.49–2.04], and neglect [OR = 1.57; 95% CI 1.39–1.78]). Evidence for causality was assessed using Bradford Hill criteria. While suggestive evidence exists for a relationship between maltreatment and chronic diseases and lifestyle risk factors, more research is required to confirm these relationships. Conclusions This overview of the evidence suggests a causal relationship between non-sexual child maltreatment and a range of mental disorders, drug use, suicide attempts, sexually transmitted infections, and risky sexual behaviour. All forms of child maltreatment should be considered important risks to health with a sizeable impact on major contributors to the burden of disease in all parts of the world. The awareness of the serious long-term consequences of child maltreatment should encourage better identification of those at risk and the development of effective interventions to protect children from violence.

Osteoporosis and fragility fractures

The prevalence of osteoporosis is expected to increase with the ageing of the world’s population. This article reviews the epidemiology, risk factors and health burden of osteoporosis. In the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2005, osteoporosis is studied as a risk factor for fracture by considering the bone-mineral-density (BMD) measurement as the continuous exposure variable. We have performed a systematic review seeking population-based studies with BMD data measured by dual-X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). The femoral neck was selected as the unique location and all values were converted into Hologic® to enable inclusion of worldwide data for analysis. Provisional results on mean BMD values for different world regions are shown in age breakdowns for males and females 50 years or over, as well as mean T-scores using the young, white, female reference of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III. Results show remarkable geographical differences and a time trend towards improvement of the BMD values in Asian and European populations.

The use of prescribed drugs for common chronic conditions in South Africa in 1998

Purpose To determine the prescribed drug-utilisation pattern for six common chronic conditions in adult South Africans in a cross-sectional survey. Methods 13 826 randomly selected participants, 15 years and older, were surveyed by trained fieldworkers at their homes in 1998. Questionnaires included socio-demographic, chronic-disease and drug-use data. The prescribed drugs were recorded from participants' medication containers. The Anatomical Therapeutic Classification (ATC) code of the drugs for tuberculosis (TB), diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, other atherosclerosis-related conditions, such as heart conditions or cerebrovascular accidents (CVA), and asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), was recorded. The use of logistic regression analyses identified the determinants of those patients who used prescription medication for these six conditions. Results 18.4% of the women and 12.5% of the men used drugs for the six chronic conditions. Men used drugs most frequently for hypertension (50.9%) and asthma or chronic bronchitis (24.3%), while in women it was for hypertension (59.9%) and diabetes (17.5%). The logistic regression analyses showed that women, wealthier and older people, and those with medical insurance used these chronic-disease drugs more frequently compared to men, younger or poor people, or those without medical insurance. The African population group used these drugs less frequently than any other ethnic group. The inappropriate use of methyldopa was found for 14.8% of all antihypertensive drugs, while very few people used aspirin. Conclusions The methodology of this study provides a means of ascertaining the chronic-disease drug-utilisation pattern in national health surveys. The pattern described, suggests an inequitable use of chronic-disease drugs and inadequate use of some effective drugs to control the burden of chronic diseases in South Africa. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Lung sickness in Murri kids : a cohort study in urban Indigenous children

QLD, 4Murri Health Group, Caboolture, QLD Introduction Respiratory illnesses with cough as a symptom are predominant causes of morbidity in young Australian Indigenous children. With the exception of ear disease, there are limited studies that have addressed burden and outcome. Also, there are no studies that are specific to urban Indigenous children. Aim: We aim to comprehensively investigate the incidence, aetiology, risk factors for and outcomes of acute respiratory illnesses (ARIs) in this population. Methods A cohort study of Indigenous children aged less than 5 years registered with an urban Indigenous primary health care service. Comprehensive baseline data are collected and children are followed monthly for 12 months to capture ARI events. ARI events are subsequently followed weekly for 4 weeks to determine cough outcomes, with review by a paediatric respiratory physician if cough has not resolved within 28 days. Results To date, 58 children (57% female) have been enrolled and 46 ARIs have been captured over 907 child weeks of observation (5.1 events per 100 child weeks, 95%CI 3.7–6.8). 13 ARIs (28.3%) have resulted in persistent cough for >28 days following onset. Conclusion Our early findings suggest an excess incidence of ARI in this population. The proportion of ARIs resulting in persistent cough for more than 4 weeks is the highest yet reported. Key Words: Indigenous, acute respiratory illness, paediatric.