Statistical modelling of district-level residential electricity use in NSW, Australia

Electricity network investment and asset management require accurate estimation of future demand in energy consumption within specified service areas. For this purpose, simple models are typically developed to predict future trends in electricity consumption using various methods and assumptions. This paper presents a statistical model to predict electricity consumption in the residential sector at the Census Collection District (CCD) level over the state of New South Wales, Australia, based on spatial building and household characteristics. Residential household demographic and building data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and actual electricity consumption data from electricity companies are merged for 74 % of the 12,000 CCDs in the state. Eighty percent of the merged dataset is randomly set aside to establish the model using regression analysis, and the remaining 20 % is used to independently test the accuracy of model prediction against actual consumption. In 90 % of the cases, the predicted consumption is shown to be within 5 kWh per dwelling per day from actual values, with an overall state accuracy of -1.15 %. Given a future scenario with a shift in climate zone and a growth in population, the model is used to identify the geographical or service areas that are most likely to have increased electricity consumption. Such geographical representation can be of great benefit when assessing alternatives to the centralised generation of energy; having such a model gives a quantifiable method to selecting the 'most' appropriate system when a review or upgrade of the network infrastructure is required.

Empirical study to investigate the difficulties of implementing safety practices in the repair and maintenance sector in Hong Kong

Repair, maintenance, minor alteration, and addition work (RMAA) has become more and more important in developed societies, but its safety performance is alarming. For example, RMAA projects accounted for 53.2% of the total construction market and the percentage of RMAA accidents to all construction accidents in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) increased considerably in 2007. The RMAA sector has a huge potential for safety improvement. This study aims to explore and evaluate the difficulties of implementing safety practices in RMAA work. The mixed methods approach was adopted, and semistructured interviews and a two-round Delphi survey were conducted for the data collection. Major difficulties were identified, including limited safety resources for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), difficulty in changing the mindset of RMAA workers, and difficulty in performing safety supervision. These obstacles for implementing safety practices in the RMAA sector, if successfully removed, could significantly improve the safety performance of the RMAA sector and the construction industry as a whole.

Developing a framework for subcontractor appraisal using a balanced scorecard

Subcontractors contribute significantly to construction projects and their performance can seriously affect over-all project success. It is crucial, therefore, to appraise the performance of subcontractors to ensure they satisfy the client's expectations and project requirements. To increase the transparency and accuracy of subcontractor appraisal, the baseline and target performance levels should be set at the outset so that the appraisers and those being appraised realize exactly what standards are to be achieved. The balanced scorecard, being a powerful tool for performance appraisal, offers a potentially good approach for modeling the subcontractor appraisal process. In this paper, an approach to developing a balanced scorecard subcontractor appraisal model is proposed and demonstrated through a questionnaire survey administered in Hong Kong and from which the baseline and target performance levels for large-scale skilled subcontractors are identified. A case example is used to illustrate the operation of the model. Finally, a means by which the model may be validated is demonstrated through the use of field experts. The results demonstrate the feasibility of developing a balanced scorecard model that can help improve the transparency of subcontractor appraisal despite the baseline and target performance levels changing according to the project characteristics, subcontractor categories and size.

Determining safety climate factors in the repair, maintenance, minor alteration, and addition sector of Hong Kong

The accident record of the repair, maintenance, minor alteration, and addition (RMAA) sector has been alarmingly high; however, research in the RMAA sector remains limited. Unsafe behavior is considered one of the key causes of accidents. Thus, the organizational factors that influence individual safety behavior at work continue to be the focus of many studies. The safety climate, which reflects the true priority of safety in an organization, has drawn much attention. Safety climate measurement helps to identify areas for safety improvement. The current study aims to identify safety climate factors in the RMAA sector. A questionnaire survey was conducted in the RMAA sector in Hong Kong. Data were randomly split into the calibration and the validation samples. The RMAA safety climate factors were determined by exploratory factor analysis on the calibration sample. Three safety climate factors of the RMAA works were identified: (1) management commitment to occupational health and safety (OHS) and employee involvement, (2) application of safety rules and work practices, and; (3) responsibility for health and safety. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was then conducted on the validation sample. The CFA model showed satisfactory goodness of fit, reliability, and validity. The suggested RMAA safety climate factors can be utilized by construction industry practitioners in developed economies to measure the safety climate of their RMAA projects, thereby enhancing the safety of RMAA works.

How public owners communicate the sustainability requirements of green design-build projects

The design-build (DB) system is regarded as an effective means of delivering sustainable buildings. Specifying clear sustainability requirements to potential contractors is of great importance to project success. This research investigates the current state-of-the-practice for the definition of sustainability requirements within the public sectors of the U.S. construction market using a robust content analysis of 49 DB requests for proposals (RFPs). The results reveal that owners predominantly communicate their desired level of sustainability through the LEED certification system. The sustainability requirement has become an important dimension for the best-value evaluation of DB contractors with specific importance weightings of up to 25%. Additionally, owners of larger projects and who provide less design information in their RFPs generally allocate significantly higher importance weightings to sustainability requirements. The primary knowledge contribution of this study to the construction industry is the reveal of current trend in DB procurement for green projects. The findings also provide owners, architects, engineers, and constructors with an effective means of communicating sustainability objectives in solicitation documents.

The Interaction of lean and building information modeling in construction

Lean construction and building information modeling (BIM) are quite different initiatives, but both are having profound impacts on the construction industry. A rigorous analysis of the myriad specific interactions between them indicates that a synergy exists which, if properly understood in theoretical terms, can be exploited to improve construction processes beyond the degree to which it might be improved by application of either of these paradigms independently. Using a matrix that juxtaposes BIM functionalities with prescriptive lean construction principles, 56 interactions have been identified, all but four of which represent constructive interaction. Although evidence for the majority of these has been found, the matrix is not considered complete but rather a framework for research to explore the degree of validity of the interactions. Construction executives, managers, designers, and developers of information technology systems for construction can also benefit from the framework as an aid to recognizing the potential synergies when planning their lean and BIM adoption strategies.

Improving the accuracy of mine site water balances through improved estimation of runoff volumes

A mine site water balance is important for communicating information to interested stakeholders, for reporting on water performance, and for anticipating and mitigating water-related risks through water use/demand forecasting. Gaining accuracy over the water balance is therefore crucial for sites to achieve best practice water management and to maintain their social license to operate. For sites that are located in high rainfall environments the water received to storage dams through runoff can represent a large proportion of the overall inputs to site; inaccuracies in these flows can therefore lead to inaccuracies in the overall site water balance. Hydrological models that estimate runoff flows are often incorporated into simulation models used for water use/demand forecasting. The Australian Water Balance Model (AWBM) is one example that has been widely applied in the Australian context. However, the calibration of AWBM in a mining context can be challenging. Through a detailed case study, we outline an approach that was used to calibrate and validate AWBM at a mine site. Commencing with a dataset of monitored dam levels, a mass balance approach was used to generate an observed runoff sequence. By incorporating a portion of this observed dataset into the calibration routine, we achieved a closer fit between the observed vs. simulated dataset compared with the base case. We conclude by highlighting opportunities for future research to improve the calibration fit through improving the quality of the input dataset. This will ultimately lead to better models for runoff prediction and thereby improve the accuracy of mine site water balances.

The impact of incidents on macroscopic fundamental diagrams

The macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) traffic modelling method has been proved for large urban roads and freeway networks, but hysteresis and scatter have been found in both such networks. This paper investigates how incident variables affect the shape and scatter of the MFD using both simulated data and real data collected from the M3 Pacific motorway in Brisbane, Australia. Three key components of incidents are investigated based on the simulated data (i.e. incident location, incident duration and traffic demand). The results based on simulated data indicate that the diagram shape is a property not only of the network itself but also of the incident variables. Diagrams for three types of real incidents (crash, hazard and vehicle breakdown) are explored separately. The results based on the empirical data are consistent with the simulated results. The hysteresis phenomenon occurs both upstream and downstream of the incident location, but for opposite hysteresis loops. The gradient of the upstream diagram is greater than that downstream on the incident site, when traffic demand is for an off-peak period.

A hybrid quality function deployment and cybernetic analytic network process model for project manager selection

Identifying appropriate decision criteria and making optimal decisions in a structured way is a complex process. This paper presents an approach for doing this in the form of a hybrid Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and Cybernetic Analytic Network Process (CANP) model for project manager selection. This involves the use of QFD to translate the owner's project management expectations into selection criteria and the CANP to weight the expectations and selection criteria. The supermatrix approach then prioritises the candidates with respect to the overall decision-making goal. A case study is used to demonstrate the use of the model in selecting a renovation project manager. This involves the development of 18 selection criteria in response to the owner's three main expectations of time, cost and quality.

Editorial Preface

This special volume of Procedia Engineering contains papers presented at the 12th Global Congress on Manufacturing and Management (GCMM - 2014), held during 8-10 December 2014 at VIT University, Vellore, India. A total of 258 papers were presented during the conference, covering the entire spectrum of Materials Processing, Manufacturing Engineering, Industrial Engineering and Management. Materials and Manufacturing field is undergoing a rapid transformation due to unexpected challenges arising from the current approach to optimization and continuous performance improvement in manufacturing processes, production of large products and development of new materials. The 12th edition of the conference has earmarked the objective to offer a common platform for professionals, researchers and educators from industry, research centers and academia to present and discuss recent advances in the field of Manufacturing Engineering.

Numerical simulation of railway track supporting system using finite-infinite and thin layer elements under impulsive loads

The present study deals with two dimensional, numerical simulation of railway track supporting system subjected to dynamic excitation force. Under plane strain condition, the coupled finite-infinite elements to represent the near and far field stress distribution and thin layer interface element was employed to model the interfacial behavior between sleepers and ballast. To account for the relative debonding, slipping and crushing that could take place in the contact area between the sleepers and ballast, modified Mohr-Coulomb criterion was adopted. Furthermore an attempt has been made to consider the elasto-plastic material non-linearity of the railway track supporting media by employing different constitutive models to represent steel, concrete and supporting materials. Based on the proposed physical and constitutive modeling a code has been developed for dynamic loads. The applicability of the developed F.E code has been demonstrated by analyzing a real railway supporting structure.

Bibliometric study of the reverse salient concept

In the development of technological systems the focus of system analysis is often on the sub-system that delivers insufficient performance – i.e. the reverse salient – which subsequently limits the performance of the system in its entirety. The reverse salient is therefore a useful concept in the study of technological systems and while the literature holds numerous accounts of its use, it is not known how often, in which streams of literature, and in what type of application the concept has been utilized by scholars since its introduction by Thomas Hughes in 1983. In this paper we employ bibliometric citation analysis between 1983 and 2008, inclusively, to study the impact of the reverse salient concept in the literature at large as well as study the dissemination of the concept into different fields of research. The study results show continuously growing number of concept citations in the literature over time as well as increasing concept diffusion into different research areas. The analysis of article contents additionally suggests the opportunity for scholars to engage in deeper conceptual application. Finally, the continuing increase in the number of citations highlights the importance of the reverse salient concept to scholars and practitioners.

Empirical investigation of factors contributing to the psychological safety climate on construction sites

Employees’ safety climate perceptions dictate their safety behavior because individuals act based on their perceptions of reality. Extensive empirical research in applied psychology has confirmed this relationship. However, rare efforts have been made to investigate the factors contributing to a favorable safety climate in construction research. As an initial effort to address the knowledge gap, this paper examines factors contributing to a psychological safety climate, an operationalization of a safety climate at the individual level, and, hence, the basic element of a safety climate at higher levels. A multiperspective framework of contributors to a psychological safety climate is estimated by a structural equation modeling technique using individual questionnaire responses from a random sample of construction project personnel. The results inform management of three routes to psychological safety climate: a client’s proactive involvement in safety management, a workforce-friendly workplace created by the project team, and transformational supervisors’ communication about safety matters with the workforce. This paper contributes to the field of construction engineering and management by highlighting a broader contextual influence in a systematic formation of psychological safety climate perceptions.