Potential uses of Bayesian networks as tools for synthesis of systematic reviews of complex interventions

Bayesian networks (BNs) are tools for representing expert knowledge or evidence. They are especially useful for synthesising evidence or belief concerning a complex intervention, assessing the sensitivity of outcomes to different situations or contextual frameworks and framing decision problems that involve alternative types of intervention. Bayesian networks are useful extensions to logic maps when initiating a review or to facilitate synthesis and bridge the gap between evidence acquisition and decision-making. Formal elicitation techniques allow development of BNs on the basis of expert opinion. Such applications are useful alternatives to ‘empty’ reviews, which identify knowledge gaps but fail to support decision-making. Where review evidence exists, it can inform the development of a BN. We illustrate the construction of a BN using a motivating example that demonstrates how BNs can ensure coherence, transparently structure the problem addressed by a complex intervention and assess sensitivity to context, all of which are critical components of robust reviews of complex interventions. We suggest that BNs should be utilised to routinely synthesise reviews of complex interventions or empty reviews where decisions must be made despite poor evidence.

Towards development of a rapid and effective non-destructive testing strategy to identify brominated flame retardants in the plastics of consumer products

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are a class of brominated flame retardants (BFRs) once extensively used in the plastics of a wide range of consumer products. The listing of certain congeners that are constituents of commercial PBDE mixtures (including c-octaBDE) in the Stockholm Convention and tightening regulation of many other BFRs in recent years have created the need for a rapid and effective method of identifying BFR-containing plastics. A three-tiered testing strategy comparing results from non-destructive testing (X-ray fluorescence (XRF)) (n = 1714), a surface wipe test (n = 137) and destructive chemical analysis (n = 48) was undertaken to systematically identify BFRs in a wide range of consumer products. XRF rapidly identified bromine in 92% of products later confirmed to contain BFRs. Surface wipes of products identified tetrabromobisphenol A (TBBPA), c-octaBDE congeners and BDE-209 with relatively high accuracy (> 75%) when confirmed by destructive chemical analysis. A relationship between the amounts of BFRs detected in surface wipes and subsequent destructive testing shows promise in predicting not only the types of BFRs present but also estimating the concentrations present. Information about the types of products that may contain persistent BFRs will assist regulators in implementing policies to further reduce the occurrence of these chemicals in consumer products.

Open and closed-loop recycling of textile and apparel products

Textile waste is a significant contributor to landfill yet the majority of textiles can be recycled, allowing for the energy and fibre to be reclaimed. This chapter examines the open-loop and closed loop recycling of textile products with particular reference to the fashion and apparel context. It describes the fibres used within apparel, the current mechanical and chemical methods for textile recycling, LCA findings for each method, and applications within apparel for each. Barriers for more effective recycling include ease of integration into existing textile and apparel design methods as well as coordinated collection of post-consumer waste. The chapter concludes with a discussion of innovations that point to future trends in both open-loop and closed-loop recycling within the apparel industry.

Major histocompatibility complex associations of ankylosing spondylitis are complex and involve further epistasis with ERAP1

Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is a common, highly heritable, inflammatory arthritis for which HLA-B*27 is the major genetic risk factor, although its role in the aetiology of AS remains elusive. To better understand the genetic basis of the MHC susceptibility loci, we genotyped 7,264 MHC SNPs in 22,647 AS cases and controls of European descent. We impute SNPs, classical HLA alleles and amino-acid residues within HLA proteins, and tested these for association to AS status. Here we show that in addition to effects due to HLA-B*27 alleles, several other HLA-B alleles also affect susceptibility. After controlling for the associated haplotypes in HLA-B, we observe independent associations with variants in the HLA-A, HLA-DPB1 and HLA-DRB1 loci. We also demonstrate that the ERAP1 SNP rs30187 association is not restricted only to carriers of HLA-B*27 but also found in HLA-B*40:01 carriers independently of HLA-B*27 genotype.

Genetic insights into common pathways and complex relationships among iImmune-mediated diseases

Shared aetiopathogenic factors among immune-mediated diseases have long been suggested by their co-familiality and co-occurrence, and molecular support has been provided by analysis of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) haplotypes and genome-wide association studies. The interrelationships can now be better appreciated following the genotyping of large immune disease sample sets on a shared SNP array: the 'Immunochip'. Here, we systematically analyse loci shared among major immune-mediated diseases. This reveals that several diseases share multiple susceptibility loci, but there are many nuances. The most associated variant at a given locus frequently differs and, even when shared, the same allele often has opposite associations. Interestingly, risk alleles conferring the largest effect sizes are usually disease-specific. These factors help to explain why early evidence of extensive 'sharing' is not always reflected in epidemiological overlap. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Using genome-Wwide complex trait analysis to quantify 'missing heritability' in Parkinson's disease

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have been successful at identifying single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) highly associated with common traits; however, a great deal of the heritable variation associated with common traits remains unaccounted for within the genome. Genome-wide complex trait analysis (GCTA) is a statistical method that applies a linear mixed model to estimate phenotypic variance of complex traits explained by genome-wide SNPs, including those not associated with the trait in a GWAS. We applied GCTA to 8 cohorts containing 7096 case and 19 455 control individuals of European ancestry in order to examine the missing heritability present in Parkinson's disease (PD). We meta-analyzed our initial results to produce robust heritability estimates for PD types across cohorts. Our results identify 27% (95% CI 17-38, P = 8.08E - 08) phenotypic variance associated with all types of PD, 15% (95% CI -0.2 to 33, P = 0.09) phenotypic variance associated with early-onset PD and 31% (95% CI 17-44, P = 1.34E - 05) phenotypic variance associated with late-onset PD. This is a substantial increase from the genetic variance identified by top GWAS hits alone (between 3 and 5%) and indicates there are substantially more risk loci to be identified. Our results suggest that although GWASs are a useful tool in identifying the most common variants associated with complex disease, a great deal of common variants of small effect remain to be discovered. © Published by Oxford University Press 2012.

Complex crystallization dynamics in amorphous germanium observed with dynamic transmission electron microscopy

Crystallization of amorphous germanium (a-Ge) by laser or electron beam heating is a remarkably complex process that involves several distinct modes of crystal growth and the development of intricate microstructural patterns on the nanosecond to ten microsecond time scales. Here we use dynamic transmission electron microscopy (DTEM) to study the fast, complex crystallization dynamics with 10 nm spatial and 15 ns temporal resolution. We have obtained time-resolved real-space images of nanosecond laser-induced crystallization in a-Ge with unprecedentedly high spatial resolution. Direct visualization of the crystallization front allows for time-resolved snapshots of the initiation and roughening of the dendrites on submicrosecond time scales. This growth is followed by a rapid transition to a ledgelike growth mechanism that produces a layered microstructure on a time scale of several microseconds. This study provides insights into the mechanisms governing this complex crystallization process and is a dramatic demonstration of the power of DTEM for studying time-dependent material processes far from equilibrium.

Energy band engineering of complex metal oxides

This doctoral studies focused on the development of new materials for efficient use of solar energy for environmental applications. The research investigated the engineering of the band gap of semiconductor materials to design and optimise visible-light-sensitive photocatalysts. Experimental studies have been combined with computational simulation in order to develop predictive tools for a systematic understanding and design on the crystal and energy band structures of multi-component metal oxides.

Using the evolution of consumer products to inform design

The development of a new consumer product and its release to market is typically an expensive and risky process. It is estimated that up to 80% of all new products fail in the marketplace (Savoia, 2014). The consequences of failure can be ruinous for a manufacturer both financially and in terms of brand reputation. So even small improvements in success prediction have the potential to save money, effort and brand reputation. This paper proposes an approach where the history and evolution of a product is mapped and analyzed. The results of the analysis can then be used to inform design decisions. This paper will also demonstrate the similarities between biological evolution and the evolution of consumer products. Using the existing structure and terminology of biological evolution allows us to focus on the aspects of innovations that have led to success and those that have led to failure. This paper uses the case study of the wristwatch and its development over 100 years. The analysis of this leads to recommendations for contemporary “smartwatches.”

Growth and meaning from negotiating the complex journey of being an Emergency Medical Dispatcher

Emergency Medical Dispatchers (EMDs) are charged with taking the calls of those who ring the national emergency number for urgent medical assistance, for dispatching paramedical crews, and for providing as much assistance as can be offered remotely until paramedics arrive. In a job role which is filled with vicarious trauma, emergency situations, pressure, abuse, grief and loss, EMDs are often challenged in maintaining their mental health. The seemingly senseless death of a teenager who commits suicide, the devastating loss of a baby to Sudden Infant Death Syndrome, lives lost through natural disasters, and multiple vehicle fatalities are only a few of the types of experiences EMDs are faced with in the course of their work. However, amongst the horror are positive stories such as coaching a caller to negotiate the birth of a baby and saving a life in jeopardy from heart failure. EMD’s need to cope with the daily challenges of the role; make sense of their work and create meaning in order to have a fulfilled and sustainable career. Although some people in this work struggle greatly to withstand the impacts of vicarious trauma, there are also stories of personal growth. In this Chapter we use a case study to explore how meaning is made for those who are an auditory witness to a continual flux of trauma for others and how the traumatic experiences EMDs bear witness to can also be a catalyst for posttraumatic growth.

Complex symbolic sequence clustering and multiple classifiers for predictive process monitoring

This paper addresses the following predictive business process monitoring problem: Given the execution trace of an ongoing case,and given a set of traces of historical (completed) cases, predict the most likely outcome of the ongoing case. In this context, a trace refers to a sequence of events with corresponding payloads, where a payload consists of a set of attribute-value pairs. Meanwhile, an outcome refers to a label associated to completed cases, like, for example, a label indicating that a given case completed “on time” (with respect to a given desired duration) or “late”, or a label indicating that a given case led to a customer complaint or not. The paper tackles this problem via a two-phased approach. In the first phase, prefixes of historical cases are encoded using complex symbolic sequences and clustered. In the second phase, a classifier is built for each of the clusters. To predict the outcome of an ongoing case at runtime given its (uncompleted) trace, we select the closest cluster(s) to the trace in question and apply the respective classifier(s), taking into account the Euclidean distance of the trace from the center of the clusters. We consider two families of clustering algorithms – hierarchical clustering and k-medoids – and use random forests for classification. The approach was evaluated on four real-life datasets.

Multifaceted Modelling of Complex Business Enterprises

We formalise and present a new generic multifaceted complex system approach for modelling complex business enterprises. Our method has a strong focus on integrating the various data types available in an enterprise which represent the diverse perspectives of various stakeholders. We explain the challenges faced and define a novel approach to converting diverse data types into usable Bayesian probability forms. The data types that can be integrated include historic data, survey data, and management planning data, expert knowledge and incomplete data. The structural complexities of the complex system modelling process, based on various decision contexts, are also explained along with a solution. This new application of complex system models as a management tool for decision making is demonstrated using a railway transport case study. The case study demonstrates how the new approach can be utilised to develop a customised decision support model for a specific enterprise. Various decision scenarios are also provided to illustrate the versatility of the decision model at different phases of enterprise operations such as planning and control.

Empowering PNG Women through Building Media Arts Production Capacity as Cultural Drivers: Showreel

The creative work comprises six short digital screen stories and emerges from a collaboration between the Discipline of Film Screen and Animation at Queensland University of Technology and the Centre for Social and Creative Media at University of Goroka, funded via the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade's Australia Awards Fellowship. Six fellows traveled from Papua New Guinea to Brisbane for a two-week intensive course to learn the advanced skills necessary in order to create media that will empower women and girls to make more of their own economies in Papua New Guinea, and increase the representation of women and their well-being through leadership and decision-making. The resulting creative work is evidence of innovative media teaching-making methods designed to build human and cultural assets in PNG and address the increasing demand for media materials driven by the influx of mobile phones and internet services. The creative work provides a platform to directly address and positively impact gender issues in PNG and builds on the success of the Pawa Meri project, which trained six female directors to tell stories of women in leadership roles in PNG. One of the directors was a producer of this creative work. The creative work frames but problematises the complex issues influencing gender equity through the selection of content and narrative structures in ways which address the dynamics of male/female relationships and power in PNG society and will include strategies to illustrate transformed male and female behaviours. The creative work adopts a scaffolded approach, incorporating the findings of the Train the Trainer approach developed by UoG and QUT for the Life Drama research project. The creative work takes into account current developmental themes and approaches in the production of rich media products, and skills the key participants so that they are able to in turn train others in the wider community. The creative work was presented to partners and key stakeholders on 3 July 2015 at the Glasshouse, QUT Creative Industries Precinct and at the Dean’s Research Seminar Poster Exhibition 15 July 2015 at Room 212-213, Level 2, J Block, Gardens Point QUT and subsequent eBook. It has since returned to PNG to be showcased and distributed, and the skills and strategies disseminated.

Biorefineries – creating economic opportunities from biofuels and bio-products

Biorefineries, producing fuels, green chemicals and bio-products, offer great potential for improving the profitability and sustainability of tropical agricultural industries. Biomass from tropical crops like sugarcane, sweet sorghum, palm and cassava offer great potential because of the high biomass growth potential under favourable climatic conditions. Biorefineries aim to convert waste residues through biochemical and enzymatic processes to low cost fermentable sugars which are a platform for value-adding. Through subsequent fermentation utilising microbial biotechnologies or chemical synthesis, the sugars can be converted to fuels including ethanol and butanol, oils, organic acids such as lactic and levulinic acid and polymer precursors. Other biorefinery products can include food and animal feeds, plastics, fibre products and resins. Pretreatment technologies are a key to unlocking this potential and new technologies are emerging. This paper will address the opportunities available for tropical biorefineries to contribute to the future profitability of tropical agricultural industries. The importance of pretreatment technologies will be discussed.

Dynamic Bayesian network inferencing for non-homogeneous complex systems

Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) provide a versatile platform for predicting and analysing the behaviour of complex systems. As such, they are well suited to the prediction of complex ecosystem population trajectories under anthropogenic disturbances such as the dredging of marine seagrass ecosystems. However, DBNs assume a homogeneous Markov chain whereas a key characteristics of complex ecosystems is the presence of feedback loops, path dependencies and regime changes whereby the behaviour of the system can vary based on past states. This paper develops a method based on the small world structure of complex systems networks to modularise a non-homogeneous DBN and enable the computation of posterior marginal probabilities given evidence in forwards inference. It also provides an approach for an approximate solution for backwards inference as convergence is not guaranteed for a path dependent system. When applied to the seagrass dredging problem, the incorporation of path dependency can implement conditional absorption and allows release from the zero state in line with environmental and ecological observations. As dredging has a marked global impact on seagrass and other marine ecosystems of high environmental and economic value, using such a complex systems model to develop practical ways to meet the needs of conservation and industry through enhancing resistance and/or recovery is of paramount importance.