718 resultados para Bayesian method
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We present experimental results that demonstrate that the wavelength of the fundamental localised surface plasmon resonance for spherical gold nanoparticles on glass can be predicted using a simple, one line analytical formula derived from the electrostatic eigenmode method. This allows the role of the substrate in lifting mode degeneracies to be determined, and the role of local environment refractive indices on the plasmon resonance to be investigated. The effect of adding silica to the casting solution in minimizing nanopaticle agglomeration is also discussed.
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Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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In this paper, a hybrid smoothed finite element method (H-SFEM) is developed for solid mechanics problems by combining techniques of finite element method (FEM) and Node-based smoothed finite element method (NS-FEM) using a triangular mesh. A parameter is equipped into H-SFEM, and the strain field is further assumed to be the weighted average between compatible stains from FEM and smoothed strains from NS-FEM. We prove theoretically that the strain energy obtained from the H-SFEM solution lies in between those from the compatible FEM solution and the NS-FEM solution, which guarantees the convergence of H-SFEM. Intensive numerical studies are conducted to verify these theoretical results and show that (1) the upper and lower bound solutions can always be obtained by adjusting ; (2) there exists a preferable at which the H-SFEM can produce the ultrasonic accurate solution.
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In this study, the effect of catalyst preparation and additive precursors on the catalytic decomposition of biomass using palygorskite-supported Fe and Ni catalysts was investigated. The catalysts were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). It is concluded that the most active additive precursor was Fe(NO3)3·9H2O. As for the catalyst preparation method, co-precipitation had superiority over incipient wetness impregnation at low Fe loadings.
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Reasoning with uncertain knowledge and belief has long been recognized as an important research issue in Artificial Intelligence (AI). Several methodologies have been proposed in the past, including knowledge-based systems, fuzzy sets, and probability theory. The probabilistic approach became popular mainly due to a knowledge representation framework called Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks have earned reputation of being powerful tools for modeling complex problem involving uncertain knowledge. Uncertain knowledge exists in domains such as medicine, law, geographical information systems and design as it is difficult to retrieve all knowledge and experience from experts. In design domain, experts believe that design style is an intangible concept and that its knowledge is difficult to be presented in a formal way. The aim of the research is to find ways to represent design style knowledge in Bayesian net works. We showed that these networks can be used for diagnosis (inferences) and classification of design style. The furniture design style is selected as an example domain, however the method can be used for any other domain.
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Knowledge has been widely recognised as a determinant of business performance. Business capabilities require an effective share of resource and knowledge. Specifically, knowledge sharing (KS) between different companies and departments can improve manufacturing processes since intangible knowledge plays an enssential role in achieving competitive advantage. This paper presents a mixed method research study into the impact of KS on the effectiveness of new product development (NPD) in achieving desired business performance (BP). Firstly, an empirical study utilising moderated regression analysis was conducted to test whether and to what extent KS has leveraging power on the relationship between NPD and BP constructs and variables. Secondly, this empirically verified hypothesis was validated through explanatory case studies involving two Taiwanese manufacturing companies using a qualitative interaction term pattern matching technique. The study provides evidence that knowledge sharing and management activities are essential for deriving competitive advantage in the manufacturing industry.
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We consider a two-dimensional space-fractional reaction diffusion equation with a fractional Laplacian operator and homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions. The finite volume method is used with the matrix transfer technique of Ilić et al. (2006) to discretise in space, yielding a system of equations that requires the action of a matrix function to solve at each timestep. Rather than form this matrix function explicitly, we use Krylov subspace techniques to approximate the action of this matrix function. Specifically, we apply the Lanczos method, after a suitable transformation of the problem to recover symmetry. To improve the convergence of this method, we utilise a preconditioner that deflates the smallest eigenvalues from the spectrum. We demonstrate the efficiency of our approach for a fractional Fisher’s equation on the unit disk.
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This paper presents a formal methodology for attack modeling and detection for networks. Our approach has three phases. First, we extend the basic attack tree approach 1 to capture (i) the temporal dependencies between components, and (ii) the expiration of an attack. Second, using the enhanced attack trees (EAT) we build a tree automaton that accepts a sequence of actions from input stream if there is a traverse of an attack tree from leaves to the root node. Finally, we show how to construct an enhanced parallel automaton (EPA) that has each tree automaton as a subroutine and can process the input stream by considering multiple trees simultaneously. As a case study, we show how to represent the attacks in IEEE 802.11 and construct an EPA for it.
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We have compared the effects of different sterilization techniques on the properties of Bombyx mori silk fibroin thin films with the view to subsequent use for corneal tissue engineering. The transparency, tensile properties, corneal epithelial cell attachment and degradation of the films were used to evaluate the suitability of certain sterilization techniques including gamma-irradiation (in air or nitrogen), steam treatment and immersion in aqueous ethanol. The investigations showed that gamma-irradiation, performed either in air or in a nitrogen atmosphere, did not significantly alter the properties of films. The films sterilized by gamma-irradiation or by immersion in ethanol had a transparency greater than 98% and tensile properties comparable to human cornea and amniotic membrane, the materials of choice in the reconstruction of ocular surface. Although steam-sterilization produced stronger, stiffer films, they were less transparent, and cell attachment was affected by the variable topography of these films. It was concluded that gamma-irradiation should be considered to be the most suitable method for the sterilization of silk fibroin films, however, the treatment with ethanol is also an acceptable method.
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Background Predicting protein subnuclear localization is a challenging problem. Some previous works based on non-sequence information including Gene Ontology annotations and kernel fusion have respective limitations. The aim of this work is twofold: one is to propose a novel individual feature extraction method; another is to develop an ensemble method to improve prediction performance using comprehensive information represented in the form of high dimensional feature vector obtained by 11 feature extraction methods. Methodology/Principal Findings A novel two-stage multiclass support vector machine is proposed to predict protein subnuclear localizations. It only considers those feature extraction methods based on amino acid classifications and physicochemical properties. In order to speed up our system, an automatic search method for the kernel parameter is used. The prediction performance of our method is evaluated on four datasets: Lei dataset, multi-localization dataset, SNL9 dataset and a new independent dataset. The overall accuracy of prediction for 6 localizations on Lei dataset is 75.2% and that for 9 localizations on SNL9 dataset is 72.1% in the leave-one-out cross validation, 71.7% for the multi-localization dataset and 69.8% for the new independent dataset, respectively. Comparisons with those existing methods show that our method performs better for both single-localization and multi-localization proteins and achieves more balanced sensitivities and specificities on large-size and small-size subcellular localizations. The overall accuracy improvements are 4.0% and 4.7% for single-localization proteins and 6.5% for multi-localization proteins. The reliability and stability of our classification model are further confirmed by permutation analysis. Conclusions It can be concluded that our method is effective and valuable for predicting protein subnuclear localizations. A web server has been designed to implement the proposed method. It is freely available at http://bioinformatics.awowshop.com/snlpred_page.php.
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This paper presents a method for investigating ship emissions, the plume capture and analysis system (PCAS), and its application in measuring airborne pollutant emission factors (EFs) and particle size distributions. The current investigation was conducted in situ, aboard two dredgers (Amity: a cutter suction dredger and Brisbane: a hopper suction dredger) but the PCAS is also capable of performing such measurements remotely at a distant point within the plume. EFs were measured relative to the fuel consumption using the fuel combustion derived plume CO2. All plume measurements were corrected by subtracting background concentrations sampled regularly from upwind of the stacks. Each measurement typically took 6 minutes to complete and during one day, 40 to 50 measurements were possible. The relationship between the EFs and plume sample dilution was examined to determine the plume dilution range over which the technique could deliver consistent results when measuring EFs for particle number (PN), NOx, SO2, and PM2.5 within a targeted dilution factor range of 50-1000 suitable for remote sampling. The EFs for NOx, SO2, and PM2.5 were found to be independent of dilution, for dilution factors within that range. The EF measurement for PN was corrected for coagulation losses by applying a time dependant particle loss correction to the particle number concentration data. For the Amity, the EF ranges were PN: 2.2 - 9.6 × 1015 (kg-fuel)-1; NOx: 35-72 g(NO2).(kg-fuel)-1, SO2 0.6 - 1.1 g(SO2).(kg-fuel)-1and PM2.5: 0.7 – 6.1 g(PM2.5).(kg-fuel)-1. For the Brisbane they were PN: 1.0 – 1.5 x 1016 (kg-fuel)-1, NOx: 3.4 – 8.0 g(NO2).(kg-fuel)-1, SO2: 1.3 – 1.7 g(SO2).(kg-fuel)-1 and PM2.5: 1.2 – 5.6 g(PM2.5).(kg-fuel)-1. The results are discussed in terms of the operating conditions of the vessels’ engines. Particle number emission factors as a function of size as well as the count median diameter (CMD), and geometric standard deviation of the size distributions are provided. The size distributions were found to be consistently uni-modal in the range below 500 nm, and this mode was within the accumulation mode range for both vessels. The representative CMDs for the various activities performed by the dredgers ranged from 94-131 nm in the case of the Amity, and 58-80 nm for the Brisbane. A strong inverse relationship between CMD and EF(PN) was observed.
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BACKGROUND There is increasing enrolment of international students in the Engineering and Information Technology disciplines and anecdotal evidence of a need for additional understanding and support for these students and their supervisors due to differences both in academic and social cultures. While there is a growing literature on supervisory styles and guidelines on effective supervision, there is little on discipline-specific, cross-cultural supervision responding to the growing diversity. In this paper, we report findings from a study of Engineering and Information technology Higher Degree Research (HDR)students and supervision in three Australian universities. PURPOSE The aim was to assess perceptions of students and supervisors of factors influencing success that are particular to international or culturally and linguistically diverse (CaLD) HDR students in Engineering and Information technology. DESIGN/METHOD Online survey and qualitative data was collected from international and CaLD HDR students and supervisors at the three universities. Bayesian network analysis, inferential statistics, and qualitative analysis provided the main findings. RESULTS Survey results indicate that both students and supervisors are positive about their experiences, and do not see language or culture as particularly problematic. The survey results also reveal strong consistency between the perceptions of students and supervisors on most factors influencing success. Qualitative analysis of critical supervision incidents has provided rich data that could help improve support services. CONCLUSIONS In contrast with anecdotal evidence, HDR completion data from the three universities reveal that international students, on average, complete in shorter time periods than domestic students. The analysis suggests that success is linked to a complex set of factors involving the student, supervision, the institution and broader community.
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An analytical method for the detection of carbonaceous gases by a non-dispersive infrared sensor (NDIR) has been developed. The calibration plots of six carbonaceous gases including CO2, CH4, CO, C2H2, C2H4 and C2H6 were obtained and the reproducibility determined to verify the feasibility of this gas monitoring method. The results prove that squared correlation coefficients for the six gas measurements are greater than 0.999. The reproducibility is excellent, thus indicating that this analytical method is useful to determinate the concentrations of carbonaceous gases.
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Restoring a large-scale power system has always been a complicated and important issue. A lot of research work has been done on different aspects of the whole power system restoration procedure. However, more time will be required to complete the power system restoration process in an actual situation if accurate and real-time system data cannot be obtained. With the development of the wide area monitoring system (WAMS), power system operators are capable of accessing to more accurate data in the restoration stage after a major outage. The ultimate goal of the system restoration is to restore as much load as possible while in the shortest period of time after a blackout, and the restorable load can be estimated by employing WAMS. Moreover, discrete restorable loads are employed considering the limited number of circuit-breaker operations and the practical topology of distribution systems. In this work, a restorable load estimation method is proposed employing WAMS data after the network frame has been reenergized, and WAMS is also employed to monitor the system parameters in case the newly recovered system becomes unstable again. The proposed method has been validated with the New England 39-Bus system and an actual power system in Guangzhou, China.
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This paper presents the direct strength method (DSM) equations for cold-formed steel beams subject to shear. Light gauge cold-formed steel sections have been developed as more economical building solutions to the alternative heavier hot-rolled sections in the commercial and residential markets. Cold-formed lipped channel beams (LCB), LiteSteel beams (LSB) and hollow flange beams (HFB) are commonly used as flexural members such as floor joists and bearers. However, their shear capacities are determined based on conservative design rules. For the shear design of cold-formed web panels, their elastic shear buckling strength must be determined accurately including the potential post-buckling strength. Currently the elastic shear buckling coefficients of web panels are determined by assuming conservatively that the web panels are simply supported at the junction between the flange and web elements and ignore the post-buckling strength. Hence experimental and numerical studies were conducted to investigate the shear behaviour and strength of LSBs, LCBs and HFBs. New direct strength method (DSM) based design equations were proposed to determine the ultimate shear capacities of cold-formed steel beams. An improved equation for the higher elastic shear buckling coefficient of cold-formed steel beams was proposed based on finite element analysis results and included in the DSM design equations. A new post-buckling coefficient was also introduced in the DSM equation to include the available post-buckling strength of cold-formed steel beams.