Adaptive estimation of HMM transition probabilities

This paper presents new schemes for recursive estimation of the state transition probabilities for hidden Markov models (HMM's) via extended least squares (ELS) and recursive state prediction error (RSPE) methods. Local convergence analysis for the proposed RSPE algorithm is shown using the ordinary differential equation (ODE) approach developed for the more familiar recursive output prediction error (RPE) methods. The presented scheme converges and is relatively well conditioned compared with the ...

Adaptive estimation of hidden semi-Markov chains with parameterised transition probabilities and exponential decaying states

This paper develops maximum likelihood (ML) estimation schemes for finite-state semi-Markov chains in white Gaussian noise. We assume that the semi-Markov chain is characterised by transition probabilities of known parametric from with unknown parameters. We reformulate this hidden semi-Markov model (HSM) problem in the scalar case as a two-vector homogeneous hidden Markov model (HMM) problem in which the state consist of the signal augmented by the time to last transition. With this reformulation we apply the expectation Maximumisation (EM ) algorithm to obtain ML estimates of the transition probabilities parameters, Markov state levels and noise variance. To demonstrate our proposed schemes, motivated by neuro-biological applications, we use a damped sinusoidal parameterised function for the transition probabilities.

Shifting from production to purpose : facilitating design-led change in a small family-owned enterprise

This research was embedded as a Design-led Innovation catalyst within a family-owned small business, to explore the application of a design program to achieve organizational change. Based on the findings two new models for increasing design integration within an organisation were proposed, establishing a range of pre-requisites needed for a firm to progress. Struggling firms may leverage their use of design and strategy by embedding a catalyst in a new cross-disciplinary role providing the necessary internal assistance. The study demonstrated that even non-design or strategy-inclined family-owned SMEs could benefit from embarking on a design-led journey to boost their competitive preparedness.

Family structure and change through middle childhood : the impact on children's adjustment and achievement

This research project investigated the influence of family transitions on children's adjustment and school achievement across the primary school years, in single-parent, re-partnered and two-parent families. The quality of children's relationships with parents, teachers and peers were predictive of more positive outcomes, regardless of family structure. The research analysed data from the Kindergarten Cohort participating in Growing Up in Australia: The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. Across the age span of the children studied, cumulative effects of any residential or school changes, or decreased family income, associated with family transitions, were more likely to predict poorer child outcomes in behaviour adjustment and school achievement.

Work and family : the perception of balance among female teachers in northern Malaysia

Women’s participation in paid employment has become a common scenario even in non-western developing countries. For example in Malaysia, the trend is growing although the traditional gender role remains strong in Malaysian society. Even though working, women are still expected to assume major responsibilities at home. Thus, as opposed to men, women in this society face the challenge to satisfactorily balance work and family. This study was carried out to explore how Malaysian women perceive the meaning of a balanced work-family life. Sampling women teachers, the interview findings revealed that work-family balance was mainly perceived in terms of an individual’s ‘ability to fulfill role obligation’ appropriately in both the work and family domains. A few participants also viewed balance in the context of role satisfaction and role interference. Overall, the results support the assumption in the literature that perceptions of work-family experience are not universal, rather, the construct of work-family balance is culture-specific.

Supporting family caregivers with palliative symptom management: A qualitative analysis of the provision of an emergency medication kit in the home setting

Purpose The purpose of this qualitative analysis was to examine the experiences of family caregivers supporting a dying person in the home setting. In particular, it explores caregivers’ perceptions of receiving palliative care at home when supplied with an emergency medication kit (EMK). Results Most family caregivers described preexisting medication management strategies that were unable to provide timely intervention in symptoms. The EMK was largely viewed as an effective strategy in providing timely symptom control and preventing readmission to inpatient care. Caregivers reported varying levels of confidence in the administration of medication. Conclusion The provision of an EMK is an effective strategy for improving symptom control and preventing inpatient admissions of home-dwelling palliative care patients.

Modeling conditional correlations of asset returns : a smooth transition approach

In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM–test is derived to test the constancy of correlations and LM- and Wald tests to test the hypothesis of partially constant correlations. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided to make computations feasible. An empirical example based on daily return series of five frequently traded stocks in the S&P 500 stock index completes the paper.

Feeding a baby (FAB) study. Reducing childhood obesity : influencing parental infant feeding practices

Background National and international rates of obesity are escalating, and programs to modify established eating habits are having limited success. Almost one in four 2-4 year old Australian children are overweight or obese. Interventions to prevent obesity in early childhood are on the rise. However, recruitment and retention issues and outcomes to date suggests a gap in meeting participant needs. Parents need both the knowledge and skills to establish behaviours that enable children to develop healthy food preferences and eating habits early. AIM To develop intervention recommendations to reduce childhood obesity by improving the infant feeding practices of parents, focusing on the transition from a milk diet to family foods.

Porous versus porthole fuel injection in a radical farming scramjet: A numerical analysis

Numerically computed engine performance of a nominally two-dimensional radical farming scramjet with porous (permeable C/C ceramic) and porthole fuel injection is presented. Inflow conditions with Mach number, stagnation pressure, and enthalpy of 6.44, 40.2MPa, and 4.31 MJ/kg respectively, and fuel/air equivalence ratio of 0.44 were maintained, along with engine geometry. Hydrogen fuel was injected at an axial location of 92.33mm downstream of the leading edge for each investigated injection method. Results from this study show that porous fuel injection results in enhanced mixing and combustion compared to porthole fuel injection. This is particularly evident within the first half of the combustion chamber where porous fuel injection resulted in mixing and combustion efficiencies of 76% and 63% respectively. At the same location, porthole fuel injection resulted in efficiencies respectively of 58% and 46%. Key mechanisms contributing to the observed improved performance were the formation of an attached oblique fuel injection shock and associated stronger shock-expansion train ingested by the engine, enhanced spreading of the fuel in all directions and a more rapidly growing mixing layer.

Onset of transition in mixed convection of a lid-driven trapezoidal enclosure filled with water-Al2O3 nanofluid

A numerical study is carried out to investigate the transition from laminar to chaos in mixed convection heat transfer inside a lid-driven trapezoidal enclosure. In this study, the top wall is considered as isothermal cold surface, which is moving in its own plane at a constant speed, and a constant high temperature is provided at the bottom surface. The enclosure is assumed to be filled with water-Al2O3 nanofluid. The governing Navier–Stokes and thermal energy equations are expressed in non-dimensional forms and are solved using Galerkin finite element method. Attention is paid in the present study on the pure mixed convection regime at Richandson number, Ri = 1. The numerical simulations are carried out over a wide range of Reynolds (0.1 ≤ Re ≤ 103) and Grashof (0.01 ≤ Gr ≤ 106) numbers. Effects of the presence of nanofluid on the characteristics of mixed convection heat transfer are also explored. The average Nusselt numbers of the heated wall are computed to demonstrate the influence of flow parameter variations on heat transfer. The corresponding change of flow and thermal fields is visualized from the streamline and the isotherm contour plots.

The Lived Experience of Families Living with Spinal Cord Disability in Northeast Thailand

The experience of disability in the global South remains relatively underreported in spite of the greater focus on disability as both an impediment to development and frequently as a result of development. This article reports a qualitative study using ethnographic techniques undertaken in the province of Khon Kaen in Northeast Thailand. The primary participants were men who had experienced a severe spinal cord injury at a time when they were breadwinners, a role which is significant in the context of a modernising state that is an active participant in a global economy. The experiences, constructions and beliefs of these men, their family carers, and other informants illustrate the complex ways in which social and cultural factors interact with the opportunities, challenges and constraints of the transition modernity. The findings, interpreted according to the ‘three bodies’ approach, illustrate the intersection of colonising effects, governmentality and resistance, and embodied experience in a cultural context.

The unequal distribution of road trauma in China : understanding risk factors to improve public health

The World Health Organization identifies road trauma as a major public health issue in every country; most notably among low-to-middle income countries. More than 90% of all road fatalities occur in these countries, although they have only 48% of all registered vehicles [1]. Unprecedented focus has been placed on reducing the global road trauma burden through the United Nations Decade of Action for Road Safety (2011-2020). China is rapidly transitioning from a nation of bicycle riders and pedestrians to one where car ownership and use is increasing. This transition presents important public health, mobility, and safety challenges. Rapid motorisation has resulted in an increased road trauma burden, shouldered disproportionately among the population. Vulnerable road users (bicyclists, pedestrians, and motorcyclists) are of particular concern, representing 70% of all road-related fatalities [1]. Furthermore, those at greatest risk of sustaining a crash-related disability are: male, older, less educated, and earning a lower income [2] and residing in urban areas [3], with higher fatality rates in north-western poorer provinces [3]. Speeding is a key factor in road crashes in China [1, 4] and is one of two risk factors targeted in the Bloomberg Philanthropies-funded Global Road Safety Program operating in two Chinese cities over five year [5] to which the first author has provided expert advice. However, little evidence exists to help understand the factors underpinning speeding behaviour. Previous research conducted by the authors in Beijing and Hangzhou explored personal, social, and legal factors relating to speeding to assist in better understanding the motivations for non-compliance with speed limits. Qualitative and quantitative research findings indicated that speeding is relatively common, including self-reported travel speeds of greater than 30 km/hour above posted speed limits [6], and that the road safety laws and enforcement practices may, in some circumstances, contribute to this [7]. Normative factors were also evident; the role of friends, family members and driving instructors were influential. Additionally, using social networks to attempt to avoid detection and penalty was reported, thereby potentially reinforcing community perceptions that speeding is acceptable [8, 9]. The authors established strong collaborative links with the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Zhejiang Police College to conduct this research. The first author has worked in both institutions for extended time periods and recognises that research must include an understanding of culturally-relevant issues if road safety is to improve in China. Future collaborations to assist in enhancing our understanding of such issues are welcomed. References [1] World Health Organization. (2009). Global status report on road safety: Time for action; Geneva. [2] Chen, H., Du, W., & Li, N. (2013). The socioeconomic inequality in traffic-related disability among Chinese adults: the application of concentration index. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 55(101-106). [3] Wang, S. Y., Li, Y. H., Chi, G. B., Xiao, S. Y., Ozanne-Smith, J., Stevenson, M., & Phillips, M. (2008). Injury-related fatalities in China: an under-recognised public-health problem. The Lancet (British edition), 372(9651), 1765-1773. [4] He, J., King, M. J., Watson, B., Rakotonirainy, A., & Fleiter, J. J. (2013). Speed enforcement in China: National, provincial and city initiatives and their success. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 50, 282-288. [5] Bhalla, K., Li, Q., Duan, L., Wang, Y., Bishai, D., & Hyder, A. A. (2013). The prevalence of speeding and drink driving in two cities in China: a mid project evaluation of ongoing road safety interventions. Injury, 44, 49-56. doi:10.1016/S0020-1383(13)70213-4. [6] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., & Lennon, A. (2013). Awareness of risky behaviour among Chinese drivers. Peer-reviewed paper presented at 23rd Canadian Multidisciplinary Road Safety Conference, Montréal, Québec. [7] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., Lennon, A., King, M. J., & Shi, K. (2009). Speeding in Australia and China: A comparison of the influence of legal sanctions and enforcement practices on car drivers. Peer-reviewd paper presented at Australasian Road Safety Research Policing Education Conference, Sydney. [8] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., Lennon, A., King, M. J., & Shi, K. (2011). Social influences on drivers in China. Journal of the Australasian College of Road Safety, 22(2), 29-36. [9] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., Guan, M. Q., Ding, J. Y., & Xu, C. (2013). Characteristics of Chinese Drivers Attending a Mandatory Training Course Following Licence Suspension. Peer-reviewed paper presented at Road Safety on Four Continents, Beijing, China.

“I would have lost the respect of my friends and family if they knew I had bent the road rules” : parents, peers, and the perilous behaviour of young drivers

Young novice drivers are at considerable risk of injury on the road. Their behaviour appears vulnerable to the social influence of their parents and friends. The nature and mechanisms of parent and peer influence on young novice driver (16–25 years) behaviour was explored via small group interviews (n = 21) and two surveys (n1 = 1170, n2 = 390) to inform more effective young driver countermeasures. Parental and peer influence occurred in preLicence, Learner, and Provisional (intermediate) periods. Pre-Licence and unsupervised Learner drivers reported their parents were less likely to punish risky driving (e.g., speeding). These drivers were more likely to imitate their parents and reported their parents were also risky drivers. Young novice drivers who experienced or expected social punishments from peers, including ‘being told off’ for risky driving, reported less riskiness. Conversely drivers who experienced or expected social rewards such as being ‘cheered on’ by friends – who were also more risky drivers – reported more risky driving including crashes and offences. Interventions enhancing positive influence and curtailing negative influence may improve road safety outcomes not only for young novice drivers, but for all persons who share the road with them. Parent-specific interventions warrant further development and evaluation including: modelling safe driving behaviour by parents; active monitoring of driving during novice licensure; and sharing the family vehicle during the intermediate phase. Peer-targeted interventions including modelling of safe driving behaviour and attitudes; minimisation of social reinforcement and promotion of social sanctions for risky driving also need further development and evaluation.

Nutritional challenges for the family caregiver and person with dementia dyad

ABSTRACT Background: The majority of people with dementia live at home until quite late in the disease trajectory, supported by family caregivers who typically take increasing responsibility for providing nutrition. Caregiving is highly stressful and thus both dyad partners are at risk of nutritional issues. Objective: This study evaluated the nutritional status of both dyad members and the associations between these. Design Descriptive, correlational Setting Community Participants 26 dyads of persons with dementia and caregivers Measurements: The nutritional status of each dyad member was evaluated at home using a comprehensive battery of measures including the Mini-Nutritional Assessment, Corrected Arm Muscle Area and a 3-day food diary. Stage of dementia and functional eating capacity was measured for the person with dementia. Caregivers completed a brief burden scale. Results: Of those with dementia (n = 26), a large proportion had nutritional issues (one was malnourished and another 16 were at risk). Six of the caregivers were at risk of malnutrition. In addition, fifteen of the people with dementia did not meet their recommended daily energy requirements. A moderate and significant positive correlation between functional eating skills and nutritional status (MNA score) among participants with dementia was found (r =.523, n = 26, p.006). Conclusion: These findings suggest that a dyadic perspective of nutritional status provides important insights into risk in this vulnerable group. Specifically, monitoring of the functional eating independence skills of the person with dementia is critical, along with assisting caregivers to be aware of their own eating patterns and intake.

The Thoughts Questionnaire (TQ) for family caregivers of people with dementia

Objectives: To develop a new measure of dysfunctional thoughts for family caregivers of people living with dementia. These thoughts can contribute to negative outcomes, but they may be modifiable. Method: A stepwise process was used to develop the Thoughts Questionnaire, commencing with item generation, concept mapping, and pilot testing in a sample of professional and nonprofessional caregivers of people with dementia (n = 18). Next, an independent sample of 35 family caregivers of people with dementia (30 female; M age = 64.30, standard deviation = 10.65) completed: (a) the Thoughts Questionnaire; (b) an existing measure of dysfunctional thoughts, the Dementia Thoughts Caregivers Questionnaire; and (c) separate validated measures of depressive symptoms, caregiver stress, and coping, respectively. Results: The level of agreement with dysfunctional thought statements from the Dementia Thoughts Caregivers Questionnaire and Thoughts Questionnaire was low. However, a small number of Thoughts Questionnaire statements were strongly endorsed by over 85% of the sample. Both dysfunctional thought measures had adequate reliability, but total scores were not significantly intercorrelated (r = .287, p = .095). Only the Thoughts Questionnaire was significantly, positively correlated with most caregiver stress measures. Thoughts Questionnaire items required a much lower reading level than the Dementia Thoughts Caregivers Questionnaire items. Discussion: This study provides preliminary data on a tool for assessing the negative role-related thoughts that family caregivers of people with dementia may experience. Given that these thoughts are implicated in depression but they may be modified, the capacity to identify dysfunctional thoughts may prove useful in caregiver support programs.