385 resultados para scenario immunization
Resumo:
It has been claimed that food aid leads to permanent dependency as it depresses domestic food prices and thus farmers find it profitable to take land out of food production and into more lucrative activities. This paper develops two alternative scenarios under which the hypothesis about the damaging effect of food aid may not be true. Under the first scenario, it is argued that food production in developing countries is often low due to unfavourable trade policies and if food aid is tied to the removal of bias against the agricultural sector, food aid will not have any disincentive effect on food production. The second exercise argues that the revenue raised by the recipient government by selling aid could be used for R and D in agricultural production.
Resumo:
The integration of stochastic wind power has accentuated a challenge for power system stability assessment. Since the power system is a time-variant system under wind generation fluctuations, pure time-domain simulations are difficult to provide real-time stability assessment. As a result, the worst-case scenario is simulated to give a very conservative assessment of system transient stability. In this study, a probabilistic contingency analysis through a stability measure method is proposed to provide a less conservative contingency analysis which covers 5-min wind fluctuations and a successive fault. This probabilistic approach would estimate the transfer limit of a critical line for a given fault with stochastic wind generation and active control devices in a multi-machine system. This approach achieves a lower computation cost and improved accuracy using a new stability measure and polynomial interpolation, and is feasible for online contingency analysis.
Resumo:
This thesis is to establish a framework to guide the development of a simulated, multimedia-enriched, immersive, learning environment (SMILE) framework. This framework models essential media components used to describe a scenario applied in healthcare (in a dementia context), demonstrates interactions between the components, and enables scalability of simulation implementation. The thesis outcomes also include a simulation system developed in accordance with the guidance framework and a preliminary evaluation through a user study involving ten nursing students and practicioners. The results show that the proposed framework is feasible and effective for designing a simulation system in dementia healthcare training.
Resumo:
Undergraduate Medical Imaging (MI)students at QUT attend their first clinical placement towards the end of semester two. Students undertake two (pre)clinical skills development units – one theory and one practical. Students gain good contextual and theoretical knowledge during these units via a blended learning model with multiple learning methods employed. Students attend theory lectures, practical sessions, tutorial sessions in both a simulated and virtual environment and also attend pre-clinical scenario based tutorial sessions. The aim of this project is to evaluate the use of blended learning in the context of 1st year Medical Imaging Radiographic Technique and its effectiveness in preparing students for their first clinical experience. It is hoped that the multiple teaching methods employed within the pre-clinical training unit at QUT builds students clinical skills prior to the real situation. A quantitative approach will be taken, evaluating via pre and post clinical placement surveys. This data will be correlated with data gained in the previous year on the effectiveness of this training approach prior to clinical placement. In 2014 59 students were surveyed prior to their clinical placement demonstrated positive benefits of using a variety of learning tools to enhance their learning. 98.31%(n=58)of students agreed or strongly agreed that the theory lectures were a useful tool to enhance their learning. This was followed closely by 97% (n=57) of the students realising the value of performing role-play simulation prior to clinical placement. Tutorial engagement was considered useful for 93.22% (n=55) whilst 88.14% (n=52) reasoned that the x-raying of phantoms in the simulated radiographic laboratory was beneficial. Self-directed learning yielded 86.44% (n=51). The virtual reality simulation software was valuable for 72.41% (n=42) of the students. Of the 4 students that disagreed or strongly disagreed with the usefulness of any tool they strongly agreed to the usefulness of a minimum of one other learning tool. The impact of the blended learning model to meet diverse student needs continues to be positive with students engaging in most offerings. Students largely prefer pre -clinical scenario based practical and tutorial sessions where 'real-world’ situations are discussed.
Resumo:
Predicting temporal responses of ecosystems to disturbances associated with industrial activities is critical for their management and conservation. However, prediction of ecosystem responses is challenging due to the complexity and potential non-linearities stemming from interactions between system components and multiple environmental drivers. Prediction is particularly difficult for marine ecosystems due to their often highly variable and complex natures and large uncertainties surrounding their dynamic responses. Consequently, current management of such systems often rely on expert judgement and/or complex quantitative models that consider only a subset of the relevant ecological processes. Hence there exists an urgent need for the development of whole-of-systems predictive models to support decision and policy makers in managing complex marine systems in the context of industry based disturbances. This paper presents Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) for predicting the temporal response of a marine ecosystem to anthropogenic disturbances. The DBN provides a visual representation of the problem domain in terms of factors (parts of the ecosystem) and their relationships. These relationships are quantified via Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs), which estimate the variability and uncertainty in the distribution of each factor. The combination of qualitative visual and quantitative elements in a DBN facilitates the integration of a wide array of data, published and expert knowledge and other models. Such multiple sources are often essential as one single source of information is rarely sufficient to cover the diverse range of factors relevant to a management task. Here, a DBN model is developed for tropical, annual Halophila and temperate, persistent Amphibolis seagrass meadows to inform dredging management and help meet environmental guidelines. Specifically, the impacts of capital (e.g. new port development) and maintenance (e.g. maintaining channel depths in established ports) dredging is evaluated with respect to the risk of permanent loss, defined as no recovery within 5 years (Environmental Protection Agency guidelines). The model is developed using expert knowledge, existing literature, statistical models of environmental light, and experimental data. The model is then demonstrated in a case study through the analysis of a variety of dredging, environmental and seagrass ecosystem recovery scenarios. In spatial zones significantly affected by dredging, such as the zone of moderate impact, shoot density has a very high probability of being driven to zero by capital dredging due to the duration of such dredging. Here, fast growing Halophila species can recover, however, the probability of recovery depends on the presence of seed banks. On the other hand, slow growing Amphibolis meadows have a high probability of suffering permanent loss. However, in the maintenance dredging scenario, due to the shorter duration of dredging, Amphibolis is better able to resist the impacts of dredging. For both types of seagrass meadows, the probability of loss was strongly dependent on the biological and ecological status of the meadow, as well as environmental conditions post-dredging. The ability to predict the ecosystem response under cumulative, non-linear interactions across a complex ecosystem highlights the utility of DBNs for decision support and environmental management.
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While many studies have explored conditions and consequences of information systems adoption and use, few have focused on the final stages of the information system lifecycle. In this paper, I develop a theoretical and an initial empirical contribution to understanding individuals’ intentions to discontinue the use of an information system. This understanding is important because it yields implications about maintenance, retirement, and users’ switching decisions, which ultimately can affect work performance, system effectiveness, and return on technology investments. In this paper, I offer a new conceptualization of factors determining users’ intentions to discontinue the use of information systems. I then report on a preliminary empirical test of the model using data from a field study of information system users in a promotional planning routine in a large retail organization. Results from the empirical analysis provide first empirical support for the theoretical model. I discuss the work’s implications for theory on information systems continuance and dual-factor logic in information system use. I also provide suggestions for managers dealing with cessation of information systems and broader work routine change in organizations due to information system end-of-life decisions.
Resumo:
An important application of solar thermal storage is for power generation or process heating. Low-temperature thermal storage in a packed rock bed is considered the best option for thermal storage for solar drying applications. In this chapter, mathematical formulations for conical have been developed. The model equations are solved numerically for charging/discharging cycles utilizing MATLAB. Results were compared with rock-bed storage with standard straight tank. From the simulated results, the temperature distribution was found to be more uniform in the truncated conical rock-bed storage. Also, the pressure drop over a long period of time in the conical thermal storage was as low as 25 Pa. Hence, the amount of power required from a centrifugal fan would be significantly lower. The flow of air inside the tank is simulated in SolidWorks software. From flow simulation, 3D modelling of flow is obtained to capture the actual scenario inside the tank.
Resumo:
The aim of this study was to develop and trial a method to monitor the evolution of clinical reasoning in a PBL curriculum that is suitable for use in a large medical school. Termed Clinical Reasoning Problems (CRPs), it is based on the notion that clinical reasoning is dependent on the identification and correct interpretation of certain critical clinical features. Each problem consists of a clinical scenario comprising presentation, history and physical examination. Based on this information, subjects are asked to nominate the two most likely diagnoses and to list the clinical features that they considered in formulating their diagnoses, indicating whether these features supported or opposed the nominated diagnoses. Students at different levels of medical training completed a set of 10 CRPs as well as the Diagnostic Thinking Inventory, a self-reporting questionnaire designed to assess reasoning style. Responses were scored against those of a reference group of general practitioners. Results indicate that the CRPs are an easily administered, reliable and valid assessment of clinical reasoning, able to successfully monitor its development throughout medical training. Consequently, they can be employed to assess clinical reasoning skill in individual students and to evaluate the success of undergraduate medical schools in providing effective tuition in clinical reasoning.
Resumo:
As we enter the second phase of creative industries there is a shift away from the early 1990s ideology of the arts as a creative content provider for the wealth generating ‘knowledge’ economy to an expanded rhetoric encompassing ‘cultural capital’ and its symbolic value. A renewed focus on culture is examined through a regional scan of creative industries in which social engineering of the arts occurs through policy imperatives driven by ‘profit oriented conceptualisations of culture’ (Hornidge 2011, p. 263) In the push for artists to become ‘culturpreneurs’ a trend has emerged where demand for ‘embedded creatives’ (Cunningham 2013) sees an exodus from arts-based employment through use of transferable skills into areas outside the arts. For those that stay, within the performing arts in particular, employment remains project-based, sporadic, underpaid, self-initiated and often self-financed, requiring adaptive career paths. Artist entrepreneurs must balance creation and performance of their art with increasing amounts of time spent on branding, compliance, fundraising and the logistical and commercial requirements of operating in a CI paradigm. The artists’ key challenge thus becomes one of aligning core creative and aesthetic values with market and business considerations. There is also the perceived threat posed by the ‘prosumer’ phenomenon (Bruns 2008), in which digital on-line products are created and produced by those formerly seen as consumers of art or audiences for art. Despite negative aspects to this scenario, a recent study (Steiner & Schneider 2013) reveals that artists are happier and more satisfied than other workers within and outside the creative industries. A lively hybridisation of creative practice is occurring through mobile and interactive technologies with dynamic connections to social media. Continued growth in arts festivals attracts participation in international and transdisciplinary collaborations, whilst cross-sectoral partnerships provide artists with opportunities beyond a socio-cultural setting into business, health, science and education. This is occurring alongside a renewed engagement with place through the rise of cultural precincts in ‘creative cities’ (Florida 2008, Landry 2000), providing revitalised spaces for artists to gather and work. Finally, a reconsideration of the specialist attributes and transferable skills that artists bring to the creative industries suggests ways to dance through both the challenges and opportunities occasioned by the current complexities of arts’ practices.
Resumo:
Objective: To identify key stakeholder preferences and priorities when considering a national healthcare-associated infection (HAI) surveillance programme through the use of a discrete choice experiment (DCE). Setting: Australia does not have a national HAI surveillance programme. An online web-based DCE was developed and made available to participants in Australia. Participants: A sample of 184 purposively selected healthcare workers based on their senior leadership role in infection prevention in Australia. Primary and secondary outcomes: A DCE requiring respondents to select 1 HAI surveillance programme over another based on 5 different characteristics (or attributes) in repeated hypothetical scenarios. Data were analysed using a mixed logit model to evaluate preferences and identify the relative importance of each attribute. Results: A total of 122 participants completed the survey (response rate 66%) over a 5-week period. Excluding 22 who mismatched a duplicate choice scenario, analysis was conducted on 100 responses. The key findings included: 72% of stakeholders exhibited a preference for a surveillance programme with continuous mandatory core components (mean coefficient 0.640 (p<0.01)), 65% for a standard surveillance protocol where patient-level data are collected on infected and non-infected patients (mean coefficient 0.641 (p<0.01)), and 92% for hospital-level data that are publicly reported on a website and not associated with financial penalties (mean coefficient 1.663 (p<0.01)). Conclusions: The use of the DCE has provided a unique insight to key stakeholder priorities when considering a national HAI surveillance programme. The application of a DCE offers a meaningful method to explore and quantify preferences in this setting.