An alternative approach to setting a mill

The conventional approach to setting a milling unit is essentially based on the desire to achieve a particular bagasse moisture content or fibre fill in each nip of the mill. This approach relies on the selection of the speed at which the mill will operate for the selected fibre rate. There is rarely any checking that the selected speed or the selected fibre fill is achieved and the same set of assumptions is generally carried over to use again in the next year. The conventional approach largely ignores the fact that the selection of mill settings actually determines the speed at which the mill will operate. Making an adjustment with the intent of changing the performance of the mill often also changes the speed of the mill as an unintended consequence. This paper presents an alternative approach to mill setting. The approach discussed makes use of mill feeding theory to define the relationship between fibre rate, mill speed and mill settings and uses that theory to provide an alternative means of determining the settings in some nips of the mill. Mill feeding theory shows that, as the feed work opening reduces, roll speed increases. The theory also shows that there is an optimal underfeed opening and Donnelly chute exit opening that will minimise roll speed and that the current South African guidelines appear to be well away from those optimal values.

A frontier functions approach to optimal scales of sustainable production

This paper translates the concepts of sustainable production to three dimensions of economic, environmental and ecological sustainability to analyze optimal production scales by solving optimizing problems. Economic optimization seeks input-output combinations to maximize profits. Environmental optimization searches for input-output combinations that minimize the polluting effects of materials balance on the surrounding environment. Ecological optimization looks for input-output combinations that minimize the cumulative destruction of the entire ecosystem. Using an aggregate space, the framework illustrates that these optimal scales are often not identical because markets fail to account for all negative externalities. Profit-maximizing firms normally operate at the scales which are larger than optimal scales from the viewpoints of environmental and ecological sustainability; hence policy interventions are favoured. The framework offers a useful tool for efficiency studies and policy implication analysis. The paper provides an empirical investigation using a data set of rice farms in South Korea.

Fuzzy logic to evaluate driving maneuvers: An integrated approach to improve training

Driver training is one of the interventions aimed at mitigating the number of crashes that involve novice drivers. Our failure to understand what is really important for learners, in terms of risky driving, is one of the many drawbacks restraining us to build better training programs. Currently, there is a need to develop and evaluate Advanced Driving Assistance Systems that could comprehensively assess driving competencies. The aim of this paper is to present a novel Intelligent Driver Training System (IDTS) that analyses crash risks for a given driving situation, providing avenues for improvement and personalisation of driver training programs. The analysis takes into account numerous variables acquired synchronously from the Driver, the Vehicle and the Environment (DVE). The system then segments out the manoeuvres within a drive. This paper further presents the usage of fuzzy set theory to develop the safety inference rules for each manoeuvre executed during the drive. This paper presents a framework and its associated prototype that can be used to comprehensively view and assess complex driving manoeuvres and then provide a comprehensive analysis of the drive used to give feedback to novice drivers.

A new approach to spatial data interpolation using higher-order statistics

Interpolation techniques for spatial data have been applied frequently in various fields of geosciences. Although most conventional interpolation methods assume that it is sufficient to use first- and second-order statistics to characterize random fields, researchers have now realized that these methods cannot always provide reliable interpolation results, since geological and environmental phenomena tend to be very complex, presenting non-Gaussian distribution and/or non-linear inter-variable relationship. This paper proposes a new approach to the interpolation of spatial data, which can be applied with great flexibility. Suitable cross-variable higher-order spatial statistics are developed to measure the spatial relationship between the random variable at an unsampled location and those in its neighbourhood. Given the computed cross-variable higher-order spatial statistics, the conditional probability density function (CPDF) is approximated via polynomial expansions, which is then utilized to determine the interpolated value at the unsampled location as an expectation. In addition, the uncertainty associated with the interpolation is quantified by constructing prediction intervals of interpolated values. The proposed method is applied to a mineral deposit dataset, and the results demonstrate that it outperforms kriging methods in uncertainty quantification. The introduction of the cross-variable higher-order spatial statistics noticeably improves the quality of the interpolation since it enriches the information that can be extracted from the observed data, and this benefit is substantial when working with data that are sparse or have non-trivial dependence structures.

Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making

Transnational preservice teachers in local education programs : a critical realist approach to narratives

This study explores how preservice teachers with non-Australian educational backgrounds and prerequisite qualifications make their way into and through a local teacher education program. It is informed by Margaret Archer's sociology of reflexivity to understand the interplay between these people's personal resources and institutional constraints and enablements. Data were collected from seven participants through narrative interviews. A narrative analysis identified big and small stories. Findings show that these preservice teachers purposefully exercise their agency as they invest in a common project for a variety of transnational goals. The outcome of that project emerges from the interaction between structure and agency.

Integrated approach to optimize open-pit mine block sequencing

Critical stage in open-pit mining is to determine the optimal extraction sequence of blocks, which has significant impacts on mining profitability. In this paper, a more comprehensive block sequencing optimisation model is developed for the open-pit mines. In the model, material characteristics of blocks, grade control, excavator and block sequencing are investigated and integrated to maximise the short-term benefit of mining. Several case studies are modeled and solved by CPLEX MIP and CP engines. Numerical investigations are presented to illustrate and validate the proposed methodology.

Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy. We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

A new approach to estimating trends in chlamydia incidence

Objectives Directly measuring disease incidence in a population is difficult and not feasible to do routinely. We describe the development and application of a new method of estimating at a population level the number of incident genital chlamydia infections, and the corresponding incidence rates, by age and sex using routine surveillance data. Methods A Bayesian statistical approach was developed to calibrate the parameters of a decision-pathway tree against national data on numbers of notifications and tests conducted (2001-2013). Independent beta probability density functions were adopted for priors on the time-independent parameters; the shape parameters of these beta distributions were chosen to match prior estimates sourced from peer-reviewed literature or expert opinion. To best facilitate the calibration, multivariate Gaussian priors on (the logistic transforms of) the time-dependent parameters were adopted, using the Matérn covariance function to favour changes over consecutive years and across adjacent age cohorts. The model outcomes were validated by comparing them with other independent empirical epidemiological measures i.e. prevalence and incidence as reported by other studies. Results Model-based estimates suggest that the total number of people acquiring chlamydia per year in Australia has increased by ~120% over 12 years. Nationally, an estimated 356,000 people acquired chlamydia in 2013, which is 4.3 times the number of reported diagnoses. This corresponded to a chlamydia annual incidence estimate of 1.54% in 2013, increased from 0.81% in 2001 (~90% increase). Conclusions We developed a statistical method which uses routine surveillance (notifications and testing) data to produce estimates of the extent and trends in chlamydia incidence.

A supervisory load-leveling approach to improve the voltage profile in distribution network

This paper suggests a supervisory control for storage units to provide load leveling in distribution networks. This approach coordinates storage units to charge during high generation and discharge during peak load times, while utilized to improve the network voltage profile indirectly. The aim of this control strategy is to establish power sharing on a pro rata basis for storage units. As a case study, a practical distribution network with 30 buses is simulated and the results are provided.

A conceptual approach to track design changes within a multi-disciplinary BIM environment

Successful management of design changes is critical for the efficient delivery of construction projects. Building Information Modeling (BIM) is envisioned to play an important role in integrating design, construction and facility management processes through coordinated changes throughout the project life-cycle. BIM currently provides significant benefits in coordinating changes across different views in a single model, and identifying conflicts between different discipline-specific models. However, current BIM tools provide limited support in managing changes across several discipline-specific models. This paper describes an approach to represent, coordinate, and track changes within a collaborative multi-disciplinary BIM environment. This approach was informed by a detailed case study of a large, complex, fast-tracked BIM project where we investigated numerous design changes, analyzed change management processes, and evaluated existing BIM tools. Our approach characterises design changes in an ontology to represent changed component attributes, dependencies between components, and change impacts. It explores different types of dependencies amongst different design changes and describes how a graph based approach and dependency matrix could assist with automating the propagation and impact of changes in a BIM-based project delivery process.

Veracity of the archive : a research approach to the collection and verification of urban morphological records using qualitative data analysis software

Critical to the research of urban morphologists is the availability of historical records that document the urban transformation of the study area. However, thus far little work has been done towards an empirical approach to the validation of archival data in this field. Outlined in this paper, therefore, is a new methodology for validating the accuracy of archival records and mapping data, accrued through the process of urban morphological research, so as to establish a reliable platform from which analysis can proceed. The paper particularly addresses the problems of inaccuracies in existing curated historical information, as well as errors in archival research by student assistants, which together give rise to unacceptable levels of uncertainty in the documentation. The paper discusses the problems relating to the reliability of historical information, demonstrates the importance of data verification in urban morphological research, and proposes a rigorous method for objective testing of collected archival data through the use of qualitative data analysis software.