Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making

Transnational preservice teachers in local education programs : a critical realist approach to narratives

This study explores how preservice teachers with non-Australian educational backgrounds and prerequisite qualifications make their way into and through a local teacher education program. It is informed by Margaret Archer's sociology of reflexivity to understand the interplay between these people's personal resources and institutional constraints and enablements. Data were collected from seven participants through narrative interviews. A narrative analysis identified big and small stories. Findings show that these preservice teachers purposefully exercise their agency as they invest in a common project for a variety of transnational goals. The outcome of that project emerges from the interaction between structure and agency.

Integrated approach to optimize open-pit mine block sequencing

Critical stage in open-pit mining is to determine the optimal extraction sequence of blocks, which has significant impacts on mining profitability. In this paper, a more comprehensive block sequencing optimisation model is developed for the open-pit mines. In the model, material characteristics of blocks, grade control, excavator and block sequencing are investigated and integrated to maximise the short-term benefit of mining. Several case studies are modeled and solved by CPLEX MIP and CP engines. Numerical investigations are presented to illustrate and validate the proposed methodology.

A new approach to estimating trends in chlamydia incidence

Objectives Directly measuring disease incidence in a population is difficult and not feasible to do routinely. We describe the development and application of a new method of estimating at a population level the number of incident genital chlamydia infections, and the corresponding incidence rates, by age and sex using routine surveillance data. Methods A Bayesian statistical approach was developed to calibrate the parameters of a decision-pathway tree against national data on numbers of notifications and tests conducted (2001-2013). Independent beta probability density functions were adopted for priors on the time-independent parameters; the shape parameters of these beta distributions were chosen to match prior estimates sourced from peer-reviewed literature or expert opinion. To best facilitate the calibration, multivariate Gaussian priors on (the logistic transforms of) the time-dependent parameters were adopted, using the Matérn covariance function to favour changes over consecutive years and across adjacent age cohorts. The model outcomes were validated by comparing them with other independent empirical epidemiological measures i.e. prevalence and incidence as reported by other studies. Results Model-based estimates suggest that the total number of people acquiring chlamydia per year in Australia has increased by ~120% over 12 years. Nationally, an estimated 356,000 people acquired chlamydia in 2013, which is 4.3 times the number of reported diagnoses. This corresponded to a chlamydia annual incidence estimate of 1.54% in 2013, increased from 0.81% in 2001 (~90% increase). Conclusions We developed a statistical method which uses routine surveillance (notifications and testing) data to produce estimates of the extent and trends in chlamydia incidence.

A supervisory load-leveling approach to improve the voltage profile in distribution network

This paper suggests a supervisory control for storage units to provide load leveling in distribution networks. This approach coordinates storage units to charge during high generation and discharge during peak load times, while utilized to improve the network voltage profile indirectly. The aim of this control strategy is to establish power sharing on a pro rata basis for storage units. As a case study, a practical distribution network with 30 buses is simulated and the results are provided.

A conceptual approach to track design changes within a multi-disciplinary BIM environment

Successful management of design changes is critical for the efficient delivery of construction projects. Building Information Modeling (BIM) is envisioned to play an important role in integrating design, construction and facility management processes through coordinated changes throughout the project life-cycle. BIM currently provides significant benefits in coordinating changes across different views in a single model, and identifying conflicts between different discipline-specific models. However, current BIM tools provide limited support in managing changes across several discipline-specific models. This paper describes an approach to represent, coordinate, and track changes within a collaborative multi-disciplinary BIM environment. This approach was informed by a detailed case study of a large, complex, fast-tracked BIM project where we investigated numerous design changes, analyzed change management processes, and evaluated existing BIM tools. Our approach characterises design changes in an ontology to represent changed component attributes, dependencies between components, and change impacts. It explores different types of dependencies amongst different design changes and describes how a graph based approach and dependency matrix could assist with automating the propagation and impact of changes in a BIM-based project delivery process.

Veracity of the archive : a research approach to the collection and verification of urban morphological records using qualitative data analysis software

Critical to the research of urban morphologists is the availability of historical records that document the urban transformation of the study area. However, thus far little work has been done towards an empirical approach to the validation of archival data in this field. Outlined in this paper, therefore, is a new methodology for validating the accuracy of archival records and mapping data, accrued through the process of urban morphological research, so as to establish a reliable platform from which analysis can proceed. The paper particularly addresses the problems of inaccuracies in existing curated historical information, as well as errors in archival research by student assistants, which together give rise to unacceptable levels of uncertainty in the documentation. The paper discusses the problems relating to the reliability of historical information, demonstrates the importance of data verification in urban morphological research, and proposes a rigorous method for objective testing of collected archival data through the use of qualitative data analysis software.

Analysing the similarity of proteins based on a new approach to empirical mode decomposition

The function of a protein can be partially determined by the information contained in its amino acid sequence. It can be assumed that proteins with similar amino acid sequences normally have closer functions. Hence analysing the similarity of proteins has become one of the most important areas of protein study. In this work, a layered comparison method is used to analyze the similarity of proteins. It is based on the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method, and protein sequences are characterized by the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). The similarity of proteins is studied with a new cross-correlation formula. It seems that the EMD method can be used to detect the functional relationship of two proteins. This kind of similarity method is a complement of traditional sequence similarity approaches which focus on the alignment of amino acids

A thermal expulsion approach to homogeneous large-volume methacrylate monolith preparation; enabling large-scale rapid purification of biomolecules

Numerous efforts have been dedicated to the synthesis of large-volume methacrylate monoliths for large-scale biomolecules purification but most were obstructed by the enormous release of exotherms during preparation, thereby introducing structural heterogeneity in the monolith pore system. A significant radial temperature gradient develops along the monolith thickness, reaching a terminal temperature that supersedes the maximum temperature required for structurally homogenous monoliths preparation. The enormous heat build-up is perceived to encompass the heat associated with initiator decomposition and the heat released from free radical-monomer and monomer-monomer interactions. The heat resulting from the initiator decomposition was expelled along with some gaseous fumes before commencing polymerization in a gradual addition fashion. Characteristics of 80 mL monolith prepared using this technique was compared with that of a similar monolith synthesized in a bulk polymerization mode. An extra similarity in the radial temperature profiles was observed for the monolith synthesized via the heat expulsion technique. A maximum radial temperature gradient of only 4.3°C was recorded at the center and 2.1°C at the monolith peripheral for the combined heat expulsion and gradual addition technique. The comparable radial temperature distributions obtained birthed identical pore size distributions at different radial points along the monolith thickness.

Large-volume methacrylate monolith for plasmid purification : process engineering approach to synthesis and application

The extent of exothermicity associated with the construction of large-volume methacrylate monolithic columns has somewhat obstructed the realisation of large-scale rapid biomolecule purification especially for plasmid-based products which have proven to herald future trends in biotechnology. A novel synthesis technique via a heat expulsion mechanism was employed to prepare a 40 mL methacrylate monolith with a homogeneous radial pore structure along its thickness. Radial temperature gradient was recorded to be only 1.8 °C. Maximum radial temperature recorded at the centre of the monolith was 62.3 °C, which was only 2.3 °C higher than the actual polymerisation temperature. Pore characterisation of the monolithic polymer showed unimodal pore size distributions at different radial positions with an identical modal pore size of 400 nm. Chromatographic characterisation of the polymer after functionalisation with amino groups displayed a persistent dynamic binding capacity of 15.5 mg of plasmid DNA/mL. The maximum pressure drop recorded was only 0.12 MPa at a flow rate of 10 mL/min. The polymer demonstrated rapid separation ability by fractionating Escherichia coli DH5α-pUC19 clarified lysate in only 3 min after loading. The plasmid sample collected after the fast purification process was tested to be a homogeneous supercoiled plasmid with DNA electrophoresis and restriction analysis.

Process engineering approach to large-volume methacrylate monolith synthesis for plasmid purification

The construction of large?volume methacrylate monolithic columns for preparative-scale plasmid purification is obstructed by the enormous release of exotherms, thus introducing structural heterogeneity in the monolith pore system. A remarkable radial temperature gradient develops along the monolith thickness, reaching a terminal temperature that supersedes the maximum temperature required for the preparation of a structurally homogeneous monolith. A novel heat expulsion technique is employed to overcome the heat build-up during the synthesis process. The enormous heat build-up is perceived to encompass the heat associated with initiator decomposition and the heat released from free radical-monomer and monomer-monomer interactions. The heat resulting from the initiator decomposition was expelled along with some gaseous fumes before commencing polymerisation in a gradual addition fashion. Characteristics of a 50 mL monolith synthesized using this technique showed an improved uniformity in the pore structure radially along the length on the monolith. Chromatographic characterization of this adsorbent displayed a persistent binding capacity of 14.5 mg pDNA/mL of the adsorbent. The adsorbent was able to fractionate a clarified bacteria lysate in only 3 min (after loading) into RNA, protein and pDNA respectively. The pDNA fraction obtained was analyzed to be a homogeneous supercoiled pDNA.

A theoretical approach to segmenting children’s walking behaviour

Childhood obesity is a leading public health concern globally. This study aimed to extend research applying the principle of market segmentation to gain insight into changing the physical activity behaviour of children, particularly their walk to/from school behaviour. It further examined the utility of employing theory, specifically the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), for this purpose. The study demonstrates the usefulness of behavioural, geographic and psychographic variables, as measured by the TPB, in distinguishing segments, offering an important contrast to prior segmentation studies emphasising demographic variables. This result provides empirical evidence of the value of employing the four segmentation bases, extending beyond a demographic focus, and the importance of incorporating behavioural theory in market segmentation. In so doing, this research provides key insights into changing children’s walking behaviour.