593 resultados para Trend Analysis
Resumo:
This paper examines the algebraic cryptanalysis of small scale variants of the LEX-BES. LEX-BES is a stream cipher based on the Advanced Encryption Standard (AES) block cipher. LEX is a generic method proposed for constructing a stream cipher from a block cipher, initially introduced by Biryukov at eSTREAM, the ECRYPT Stream Cipher project in 2005. The Big Encryption System (BES) is a block cipher introduced at CRYPTO 2002 which facilitates the algebraic analysis of the AES block cipher. In this paper, experiments were conducted to find solution of the equation system describing small scale LEX-BES using Gröbner Basis computations. This follows a similar approach to the work by Cid, Murphy and Robshaw at FSE 2005 that investigated algebraic cryptanalysis on small scale variants of the BES. The difference between LEX-BES and BES is that due to the way the keystream is extracted, the number of unknowns in LEX-BES equations is fewer than the number in BES. As far as the author knows, this attempt is the first at creating solvable equation systems for stream ciphers based on the LEX method using Gröbner Basis computations.
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In a resource constrained business world, strategic choices must be made on process improvement and service delivery. There are calls for more agile forms of enterprises and much effort is being directed at moving organizations from a complex landscape of disparate application systems to that of an integrated and flexible enterprise accessing complex systems landscapes through service oriented architecture (SOA). This paper describes the deconstruction of an enterprise into business services using value chain analysis as each element in the value chain can be rendered as a business service in the SOA. These business services are explicitly linked to the attainment of specific organizational strategies and their contribution to the attainment of strategy is assessed and recorded. This contribution is then used to provide a rank order of business service to strategy. This information facilitates executive decision making on which business service to develop into the SOA. The paper describes an application of this Critical Service Identification Methodology (CSIM) to a case study.
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Insight into the unique structure of layered double hydroxides has been obtained using a combination of X-ray diffraction and thermal analysis. Indium containing hydrotalcites of formula Mg4In2(CO3)(OH)12•4H2O (2:1 In-LDH) through to Mg8In2(CO3)(OH)18•4H2O (4:1 In-LDH) with variation in the Mg:In ratio have been successfully synthesised. The d(003) spacing varied from 7.83 Å for the 2:1 LDH to 8.15 Å for the 3:1 indium containing layered double hydroxide. Distinct mass loss steps attributed to dehydration, dehydroxylation and decarbonation are observed for the indium containing hydrotalcite. Dehydration occurs over the temperature range ambient to 205 °C. Dehydroxylation takes place in a series of steps over the 238 to 277 °C temperature range. Decarbonation occurs between 763 and 795 °C. The dehydroxylation and decarbonation steps depend upon the Mg:In ratio. The formation of indium containing hydrotalcites and their thermal activation provides a method for the synthesis of indium oxide based catalysts.
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To date, most applications of algebraic analysis and attacks on stream ciphers are on those based on lin- ear feedback shift registers (LFSRs). In this paper, we extend algebraic analysis to non-LFSR based stream ciphers. Specifically, we perform an algebraic analysis on the RC4 family of stream ciphers, an example of stream ciphers based on dynamic tables, and inves- tigate its implications to potential algebraic attacks on the cipher. This is, to our knowledge, the first pa- per that evaluates the security of RC4 against alge- braic attacks through providing a full set of equations that describe the complex word manipulations in the system. For an arbitrary word size, we derive alge- braic representations for the three main operations used in RC4, namely state extraction, word addition and state permutation. Equations relating the inter- nal states and keystream of RC4 are then obtained from each component of the cipher based on these al- gebraic representations, and analysed in terms of their contributions to the security of RC4 against algebraic attacks. Interestingly, it is shown that each of the three main operations contained in the components has its own unique algebraic properties, and when their respective equations are combined, the resulting system becomes infeasible to solve. This results in a high level of security being achieved by RC4 against algebraic attacks. On the other hand, the removal of an operation from the cipher could compromise this security. Experiments on reduced versions of RC4 have been performed, which confirms the validity of our algebraic analysis and the conclusion that the full RC4 stream cipher seems to be immune to algebraic attacks at present.
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Spectrum sensing is considered to be one of the most important tasks in cognitive radio. Many sensing detectors have been proposed in the literature, with the common assumption that the primary user is either fully present or completely absent within the window of observation. In reality, there are scenarios where the primary user signal only occupies a fraction of the observed window. This paper aims to analyse the effect of the primary user duty cycle on spectrum sensing performance through the analysis of a few common detectors. Simulations show that the probability of detection degrades severely with reduced duty cycle regardless of the detection method. Furthermore we show that reducing the duty cycle has a greater degradation on performance than lowering the signal strength.
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The high morbidity and mortality associated with atherosclerotic coronary vascular disease (CVD) and its complications are being lessened by the increased knowledge of risk factors, effective preventative measures and proven therapeutic interventions. However, significant CVD morbidity remains and sudden cardiac death continues to be a presenting feature for some subsequently diagnosed with CVD. Coronary vascular disease is also the leading cause of anaesthesia related complications. Stress electrocardiography/exercise testing is predictive of 10 year risk of CVD events and the cardiovascular variables used to score this test are monitored peri-operatively. Similar physiological time-series datasets are being subjected to data mining methods for the prediction of medical diagnoses and outcomes. This study aims to find predictors of CVD using anaesthesia time-series data and patient risk factor data. Several pre-processing and predictive data mining methods are applied to this data. Physiological time-series data related to anaesthetic procedures are subjected to pre-processing methods for removal of outliers, calculation of moving averages as well as data summarisation and data abstraction methods. Feature selection methods of both wrapper and filter types are applied to derived physiological time-series variable sets alone and to the same variables combined with risk factor variables. The ability of these methods to identify subsets of highly correlated but non-redundant variables is assessed. The major dataset is derived from the entire anaesthesia population and subsets of this population are considered to be at increased anaesthesia risk based on their need for more intensive monitoring (invasive haemodynamic monitoring and additional ECG leads). Because of the unbalanced class distribution in the data, majority class under-sampling and Kappa statistic together with misclassification rate and area under the ROC curve (AUC) are used for evaluation of models generated using different prediction algorithms. The performance based on models derived from feature reduced datasets reveal the filter method, Cfs subset evaluation, to be most consistently effective although Consistency derived subsets tended to slightly increased accuracy but markedly increased complexity. The use of misclassification rate (MR) for model performance evaluation is influenced by class distribution. This could be eliminated by consideration of the AUC or Kappa statistic as well by evaluation of subsets with under-sampled majority class. The noise and outlier removal pre-processing methods produced models with MR ranging from 10.69 to 12.62 with the lowest value being for data from which both outliers and noise were removed (MR 10.69). For the raw time-series dataset, MR is 12.34. Feature selection results in reduction in MR to 9.8 to 10.16 with time segmented summary data (dataset F) MR being 9.8 and raw time-series summary data (dataset A) being 9.92. However, for all time-series only based datasets, the complexity is high. For most pre-processing methods, Cfs could identify a subset of correlated and non-redundant variables from the time-series alone datasets but models derived from these subsets are of one leaf only. MR values are consistent with class distribution in the subset folds evaluated in the n-cross validation method. For models based on Cfs selected time-series derived and risk factor (RF) variables, the MR ranges from 8.83 to 10.36 with dataset RF_A (raw time-series data and RF) being 8.85 and dataset RF_F (time segmented time-series variables and RF) being 9.09. The models based on counts of outliers and counts of data points outside normal range (Dataset RF_E) and derived variables based on time series transformed using Symbolic Aggregate Approximation (SAX) with associated time-series pattern cluster membership (Dataset RF_ G) perform the least well with MR of 10.25 and 10.36 respectively. For coronary vascular disease prediction, nearest neighbour (NNge) and the support vector machine based method, SMO, have the highest MR of 10.1 and 10.28 while logistic regression (LR) and the decision tree (DT) method, J48, have MR of 8.85 and 9.0 respectively. DT rules are most comprehensible and clinically relevant. The predictive accuracy increase achieved by addition of risk factor variables to time-series variable based models is significant. The addition of time-series derived variables to models based on risk factor variables alone is associated with a trend to improved performance. Data mining of feature reduced, anaesthesia time-series variables together with risk factor variables can produce compact and moderately accurate models able to predict coronary vascular disease. Decision tree analysis of time-series data combined with risk factor variables yields rules which are more accurate than models based on time-series data alone. The limited additional value provided by electrocardiographic variables when compared to use of risk factors alone is similar to recent suggestions that exercise electrocardiography (exECG) under standardised conditions has limited additional diagnostic value over risk factor analysis and symptom pattern. The effect of the pre-processing used in this study had limited effect when time-series variables and risk factor variables are used as model input. In the absence of risk factor input, the use of time-series variables after outlier removal and time series variables based on physiological variable values’ being outside the accepted normal range is associated with some improvement in model performance.
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Road agencies require comprehensive, relevan and quality data describing their road assets to support their investment decisions. An investment decision support system for raod maintenance and rehabilitation mainly comprise three important supporting elements namely: road asset data, decision support tools and criteria for decision-making. Probability-based methods have played a crucial role in helping decision makers understand the relationship among road related data, asset performance and uncertainties in estimating budgets/costs for road management investment. This paper presents applications of the probability-bsed method for road asset management.
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Longitudinal data, where data are repeatedly observed or measured on a temporal basis of time or age provides the foundation of the analysis of processes which evolve over time, and these can be referred to as growth or trajectory models. One of the traditional ways of looking at growth models is to employ either linear or polynomial functional forms to model trajectory shape, and account for variation around an overall mean trend with the inclusion of random eects or individual variation on the functional shape parameters. The identification of distinct subgroups or sub-classes (latent classes) within these trajectory models which are not based on some pre-existing individual classification provides an important methodology with substantive implications. The identification of subgroups or classes has a wide application in the medical arena where responder/non-responder identification based on distinctly diering trajectories delivers further information for clinical processes. This thesis develops Bayesian statistical models and techniques for the identification of subgroups in the analysis of longitudinal data where the number of time intervals is limited. These models are then applied to a single case study which investigates the neuropsychological cognition for early stage breast cancer patients undergoing adjuvant chemotherapy treatment from the Cognition in Breast Cancer Study undertaken by the Wesley Research Institute of Brisbane, Queensland. Alternative formulations to the linear or polynomial approach are taken which use piecewise linear models with a single turning point, change-point or knot at a known time point and latent basis models for the non-linear trajectories found for the verbal memory domain of cognitive function before and after chemotherapy treatment. Hierarchical Bayesian random eects models are used as a starting point for the latent class modelling process and are extended with the incorporation of covariates in the trajectory profiles and as predictors of class membership. The Bayesian latent basis models enable the degree of recovery post-chemotherapy to be estimated for short and long-term followup occasions, and the distinct class trajectories assist in the identification of breast cancer patients who maybe at risk of long-term verbal memory impairment.
Resumo:
Transport regulators consider that, with respect to pavement damage, heavy vehicles (HVs) are the riskiest vehicles on the road network. That HV suspension design contributes to road and bridge damage has been recognised for some decades. This thesis deals with some aspects of HV suspension characteristics, particularly (but not exclusively) air suspensions. This is in the areas of developing low-cost in-service heavy vehicle (HV) suspension testing, the effects of larger-than-industry-standard longitudinal air lines and the characteristics of on-board mass (OBM) systems for HVs. All these areas, whilst seemingly disparate, seek to inform the management of HVs, reduce of their impact on the network asset and/or provide a measurement mechanism for worn HV suspensions. A number of project management groups at the State and National level in Australia have been, and will be, presented with the results of the project that resulted in this thesis. This should serve to inform their activities applicable to this research. A number of HVs were tested for various characteristics. These tests were used to form a number of conclusions about HV suspension behaviours. Wheel forces from road test data were analysed. A “novel roughness” measure was developed and applied to the road test data to determine dynamic load sharing, amongst other research outcomes. Further, it was proposed that this approach could inform future development of pavement models incorporating roughness and peak wheel forces. Left/right variations in wheel forces and wheel force variations for different speeds were also presented. This led on to some conclusions regarding suspension and wheel force frequencies, their transmission to the pavement and repetitive wheel loads in the spatial domain. An improved method of determining dynamic load sharing was developed and presented. It used the correlation coefficient between two elements of a HV to determine dynamic load sharing. This was validated against a mature dynamic loadsharing metric, the dynamic load sharing coefficient (de Pont, 1997). This was the first time that the technique of measuring correlation between elements on a HV has been used for a test case vs. a control case for two different sized air lines. That dynamic load sharing was improved at the air springs was shown for the test case of the large longitudinal air lines. The statistically significant improvement in dynamic load sharing at the air springs from larger longitudinal air lines varied from approximately 30 percent to 80 percent. Dynamic load sharing at the wheels was improved only for low air line flow events for the test case of larger longitudinal air lines. Statistically significant improvements to some suspension metrics across the range of test speeds and “novel roughness” values were evident from the use of larger longitudinal air lines, but these were not uniform. Of note were improvements to suspension metrics involving peak dynamic forces ranging from below the error margin to approximately 24 percent. Abstract models of HV suspensions were developed from the results of some of the tests. Those models were used to propose further development of, and future directions of research into, further gains in HV dynamic load sharing. This was from alterations to currently available damping characteristics combined with implementation of large longitudinal air lines. In-service testing of HV suspensions was found to be possible within a documented range from below the error margin to an error of approximately 16 percent. These results were in comparison with either the manufacturer’s certified data or test results replicating the Australian standard for “road-friendly” HV suspensions, Vehicle Standards Bulletin 11. OBM accuracy testing and development of tamper evidence from OBM data were detailed for over 2000 individual data points across twelve test and control OBM systems from eight suppliers installed on eleven HVs. The results indicated that 95 percent of contemporary OBM systems available in Australia are accurate to +/- 500 kg. The total variation in OBM linearity, after three outliers in the data were removed, was 0.5 percent. A tamper indicator and other OBM metrics that could be used by jurisdictions to determine tamper events were developed and documented. That OBM systems could be used as one vector for in-service testing of HV suspensions was one of a number of synergies between the seemingly disparate streams of this project.
Resumo:
The reliability of Critical Infrastructure is considered to be a fundamental expectation of modern societies. These large-scale socio-technical systems have always, due to their complex nature, been faced with threats challenging their ongoing functioning. However, increasing uncertainty in addition to the trend of infrastructure fragmentation has made reliable service provision not only a key organisational goal, but a major continuity challenge: especially given the highly interdependent network conditions that exist both regionally and globally. The notion of resilience as an adaptive capacity supporting infrastructure reliability under conditions of uncertainty and change has emerged as a critical capacity for systems of infrastructure and the organisations responsible for their reliable management. This study explores infrastructure reliability through the lens of resilience from an organisation and system perspective using two recognised resilience-enhancing management practices, High Reliability Theory (HRT) and Business Continuity Management (BCM) to better understand how this phenomenon manifests within a partially fragmented (corporatised) critical infrastructure industry – The Queensland Electricity Industry. The methodological approach involved a single case study design (industry) with embedded sub-units of analysis (organisations), utilising in-depth interviews and document analysis to illicit findings. Derived from detailed assessment of BCM and Reliability-Enhancing characteristics, findings suggest that the industry as a whole exhibits resilient functioning, however this was found to manifest at different levels across the industry and in different combinations. Whilst there were distinct differences in respect to resilient capabilities at the organisational level, differences were less marked at a systems (industry) level, with many common understandings carried over from the pre-corporatised operating environment. These Heritage Factors were central to understanding the systems level cohesion noted in the work. The findings of this study are intended to contribute to a body of knowledge encompassing resilience and high reliability in critical infrastructure industries. The research also has value from a practical perspective, as it suggests a range of opportunities to enhance resilient functioning under increasingly interdependent, networked conditions.
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This paper argues that management education needs to consider a trend in learning design which advances more creative learning through an alliance with art-based pedagogical processes. A shift is required from skills training to facilitating transformational learning through experiences that expand human potential, facilitated by artistic processes. In this paper the authors discuss the necessity for creativity and innovation in the workplace and the need to develop better leaders and managers. The inclusion of arts-based processes enhances artful behaviour, aesthetics and creativity within management and organisational behaviour, generating important implications for business innovation. This creative learning focus stems from an analysis of an arts-based intervention for management development. Entitled Management Jazz the program was conducted over three years at a large Australian University. The paper reviews some of the salient literature in the field. It considers four stages of the learning process: capacity, artful event, increased capability, and application/action to produce product. One illustrative example of an arts-based learning process is provided from the Management Jazz program. Research findings indicate that artful learning opportunities enhance capacity for awareness of creativity in one’s self and in others. This capacity correlates positively with a perception that engaging in artful learning enhances the capability of managers in changing collaborative relationships and habitat constraint. The authors conclude that it is through engagement and creative alliance with the arts that management education can explore and discover artful approaches to building creativity and innovation. The illustration presented in this paper will be delivered as a brief workshop at the Fourth Art of Management Conference. The process of bricolage and articles at hand will be used to explore creative constraints and prototypes while generating group collaboration. The mini-workshop will conclude with discussion of the arts-based process and capability enhancement outcomes.
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This thesis is devoted to the study of linear relationships in symmetric block ciphers. A block cipher is designed so that the ciphertext is produced as a nonlinear function of the plaintext and secret master key. However, linear relationships within the cipher can still exist if the texts and components of the cipher are manipulated in a number of ways, as shown in this thesis. There are four main contributions of this thesis. The first contribution is the extension of the applicability of integral attacks from word-based to bitbased block ciphers. Integral attacks exploit the linear relationship between texts at intermediate stages of encryption. This relationship can be used to recover subkey bits in a key recovery attack. In principle, integral attacks can be applied to bit-based block ciphers. However, specific tools to define the attack on these ciphers are not available. This problem is addressed in this thesis by introducing a refined set of notations to describe the attack. The bit patternbased integral attack is successfully demonstrated on reduced-round variants of the block ciphers Noekeon, Present and Serpent. The second contribution is the discovery of a very small system of equations that describe the LEX-AES stream cipher. LEX-AES is based heavily on the 128-bit-key (16-byte) Advanced Encryption Standard (AES) block cipher. In one instance, the system contains 21 equations and 17 unknown bytes. This is very close to the upper limit for an exhaustive key search, which is 16 bytes. One only needs to acquire 36 bytes of keystream to generate the equations. Therefore, the security of this cipher depends on the difficulty of solving this small system of equations. The third contribution is the proposal of an alternative method to measure diffusion in the linear transformation of Substitution-Permutation-Network (SPN) block ciphers. Currently, the branch number is widely used for this purpose. It is useful for estimating the possible success of differential and linear attacks on a particular SPN cipher. However, the measure does not give information on the number of input bits that are left unchanged by the transformation when producing the output bits. The new measure introduced in this thesis is intended to complement the current branch number technique. The measure is based on fixed points and simple linear relationships between the input and output words of the linear transformation. The measure represents the average fraction of input words to a linear diffusion transformation that are not effectively changed by the transformation. This measure is applied to the block ciphers AES, ARIA, Serpent and Present. It is shown that except for Serpent, the linear transformations used in the block ciphers examined do not behave as expected for a random linear transformation. The fourth contribution is the identification of linear paths in the nonlinear round function of the SMS4 block cipher. The SMS4 block cipher is used as a standard in the Chinese Wireless LAN Wired Authentication and Privacy Infrastructure (WAPI) and hence, the round function should exhibit a high level of nonlinearity. However, the findings in this thesis on the existence of linear relationships show that this is not the case. It is shown that in some exceptional cases, the first four rounds of SMS4 are effectively linear. In these cases, the effective number of rounds for SMS4 is reduced by four, from 32 to 28. The findings raise questions about the security provided by SMS4, and might provide clues on the existence of a flaw in the design of the cipher.