Integrated health prediction of bridge systems using dynamic object oriented Bayesian networks (DOOBNS)

The serviceability and safety of bridges are crucial to people’s daily lives and to the national economy. Every effort should be taken to make sure that bridges function safely and properly as any damage or fault during the service life can lead to transport paralysis, catastrophic loss of property or even casualties. Nonetheless, aggressive environmental conditions, ever-increasing and changing traffic loads and aging can all contribute to bridge deterioration. With often constrained budget, it is of significance to identify bridges and bridge elements that should be given higher priority for maintenance, rehabilitation or replacement, and to select optimal strategy. Bridge health prediction is an essential underpinning science to bridge maintenance optimization, since the effectiveness of optimal maintenance decision is largely dependent on the forecasting accuracy of bridge health performance. The current approaches for bridge health prediction can be categorised into two groups: condition ratings based and structural reliability based. A comprehensive literature review has revealed the following limitations of the current modelling approaches: (1) it is not evident in literature to date that any integrated approaches exist for modelling both serviceability and safety aspects so that both performance criteria can be evaluated coherently; (2) complex system modelling approaches have not been successfully applied to bridge deterioration modelling though a bridge is a complex system composed of many inter-related bridge elements; (3) multiple bridge deterioration factors, such as deterioration dependencies among different bridge elements, observed information, maintenance actions and environmental effects have not been considered jointly; (4) the existing approaches are lacking in Bayesian updating ability to incorporate a variety of event information; (5) the assumption of series and/or parallel relationship for bridge level reliability is always held in all structural reliability estimation of bridge systems. To address the deficiencies listed above, this research proposes three novel models based on the Dynamic Object Oriented Bayesian Networks (DOOBNs) approach. Model I aims to address bridge deterioration in serviceability using condition ratings as the health index. The bridge deterioration is represented in a hierarchical relationship, in accordance with the physical structure, so that the contribution of each bridge element to bridge deterioration can be tracked. A discrete-time Markov process is employed to model deterioration of bridge elements over time. In Model II, bridge deterioration in terms of safety is addressed. The structural reliability of bridge systems is estimated from bridge elements to the entire bridge. By means of conditional probability tables (CPTs), not only series-parallel relationship but also complex probabilistic relationship in bridge systems can be effectively modelled. The structural reliability of each bridge element is evaluated from its limit state functions, considering the probability distributions of resistance and applied load. Both Models I and II are designed in three steps: modelling consideration, DOOBN development and parameters estimation. Model III integrates Models I and II to address bridge health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects jointly. The modelling of bridge ratings is modified so that every basic modelling unit denotes one physical bridge element. According to the specific materials used, the integration of condition ratings and structural reliability is implemented through critical failure modes. Three case studies have been conducted to validate the proposed models, respectively. Carefully selected data and knowledge from bridge experts, the National Bridge Inventory (NBI) and existing literature were utilised for model validation. In addition, event information was generated using simulation to demonstrate the Bayesian updating ability of the proposed models. The prediction results of condition ratings and structural reliability were presented and interpreted for basic bridge elements and the whole bridge system. The results obtained from Model II were compared with the ones obtained from traditional structural reliability methods. Overall, the prediction results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed modelling approach for bridge health prediction and underpin the assertion that the three models can be used separately or integrated and are more effective than the current bridge deterioration modelling approaches. The primary contribution of this work is to enhance the knowledge in the field of bridge health prediction, where more comprehensive health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects are addressed jointly. The proposed models, characterised by probabilistic representation of bridge deterioration in hierarchical ways, demonstrated the effectiveness and pledge of DOOBNs approach to bridge health management. Additionally, the proposed models have significant potential for bridge maintenance optimization. Working together with advanced monitoring and inspection techniques, and a comprehensive bridge inventory, the proposed models can be used by bridge practitioners to achieve increased serviceability and safety as well as maintenance cost effectiveness.

Qualitative and quantitative analysis of six sigma in service organizations

The concept of Six Sigma was initiated in the 1980s by Motorola. Since then it has been implemented in several manufacturing and service organizations. Till now Six Sigma implementation is mostly limited to healthcare and financial services in private sector. Its implementation is now gradually picking up in services such as call center, education, construction and related engineering etc. in private as well as public sector. Through a literature review, a questionnaire survey, and multiple case study approach the paper develops a conceptual framework to facilitate widening the scope of Six Sigma implementation in service organizations. Using grounded theory methodology, this study develops theory for Six Sigma implementation in service organizations. The study involves a questionnaire survey and case studies to understand and build a conceptual framework. The survey was conducted in service organizations in Singapore and exploratory in nature. The case studies involved three service organizations which implemented Six Sigma. The objective is to explore and understand the issues highlighted by the survey and the literature. The findings confirm the inclusion of critical success factors, critical-to-quality characteristics, and set of tools and techniques as observed from the literature. In case of key performance indicator, there are different interpretations about it in literature and also by industry practitioners. Some literature explain key performance indicator as performance metrics whereas some feel it as key process input or output variables, which is similar to interpretations by practitioners of Six Sigma. The response of not relevant and unknown to us as reasons for not implementing Six Sigma shows the need for understanding specific requirements of service organizations. Though much theoretical description is available about Six Sigma, but there has been limited rigorous academic research on it. This gap is far more pronounced about Six Sigma implementation in service organizations, where the theory is not mature enough. Identifying this need, the study contributes by going through theory building exercise and developing a conceptual framework to understand the issues involving its implementation in service organizations.

Impact of opening a new emergency department on healthcare service and patient outcomes : analyses based on linking ambulance, emergency and hospital databases

Background Emergency department (ED) crowding caused by access block is an increasing public health issue and has been associated with impaired healthcare delivery, negative patient outcomes and increased staff workload. Aim To investigate the impact of opening a new ED on patient and healthcare service outcomes. Methods A 24-month time series analysis was employed using deterministically linked data from the ambulance service and three ED and hospital admission databases in Queensland, Australia. Results Total volume of ED presentations increased 18%, while local population growth increased by 3%. Healthcare service and patient outcomes at the two pre-existing hospitals did not improve. These outcomes included ambulance offload time: (Hospital A PRE: 10 min, POST: 10 min, P < 0.001; Hospital B PRE: 10 min, POST: 15 min, P < 0.001); ED length of stay: (Hospital A PRE: 242 min, POST: 246 min, P < 0.001; Hospital B PRE: 182 min, POST: 210 min, P < 0.001); and access block: (Hospital A PRE: 41%, POST: 46%, P < 0.001; Hospital B PRE: 23%, POST: 40%, P < 0.001). Time series modelling indicated that the effect was worst at the hospital furthest away from the new ED. Conclusions An additional ED within the region saw an increase in the total volume of presentations at a rate far greater than local population growth, suggesting it either provided an unmet need or a shifting of activity from one sector to another. Future studies should examine patient decision making regarding reasons for presenting to a new or pre-existing ED. There is an inherent need to take a ‘whole of health service area’ approach to solve crowding issues.

Developing a creative cluster in a post-industrial city : the Creative Industries Development Service (CIDS) and Manchester

This article takes the establishment and demise of Manchester’s Creative Industries Development Service (CIDS) as an exemplary case study for the ways in which creative industry policy has intersected with urban economic policy over the last decade. The authors argue that the creative industries required specific kinds of economic development agencies that would be able to act as “intermediaries” between the distinct languages of policymakers and “creatives.” They discuss the tensions inherent in such an approach and how CIDS attempted to manage them and suggest that the main reason for the demise of the CIDS was the domination of the “economic” over the “cultural” logic, both of which are present within the creative industries policy discourse.

An exploratory study to examine the phenomenon and practice of ambulance ramping at hospitals within the Queensland Health Southern Districts and the Queensland Ambulance Service

Background: Ambulance Ramping, defined anecdotally as a practice where patients brought to emergency departments by ambulance experience delays to admission, has become more frequent in Australian emergency departments over the last few years. Previous research has shown a link between emergency department overcrowding, ambulance diversion and adverse outcomes for patients. However, there is very little research about Ambulance Ramping. The literature has no consistent definition of Ambulance Ramping, no description of how it is managed, and limited research on the effects it has on patient and service delivery outcomes...

What pre-service teachers need to know to be effective at values-based education

Evidence is mounting that values education is providing positive outcomes for students, teachers and schools (Benninga, Berkowitz, Kuehn, & Smith, 2006; DEST, 2008; Hattie, 2003; Lovat, Clement, Dally, & Toomey, 2010). Despite this, Australian pre-service teacher education does not appear to be changing in ways necessary to support skilling teachers to teach with a values focus (Lovat, Dally, Clement, and Toomey, 2011). This article presents findings from a case study that explored current teachers’ perceptions of the skills pre-service teachers need to teach values education effectively. Teachers who currently teach with a values focus highlighted that pre-service teacher education degrees need to encourage an ongoing commitment to continual learning, critical reflection and growth in pre-service teachers, along with excellent questioning and listening skills. Further, they argued that pre-service teachers need to be skilled in recognising and responding to student diversity. This article ends by arguing for some changes that need to occur in pre-service teacher education in order for teachers to teach effectively with a values focus, including the need for stronger connections between pre-service and experienced teachers.

Designing a self-service technology to increase self-efficacy and maintain breastfeeding

Despite the significant health benefits attributed to breastfeeding, rates in countries, such as Australia, continue to remain static or to decline. Typically, the tangible support offered for women to support breastfeeding behaviours takes the form of face-to-face advice from health professionals, peer counselling via not-for-profit organizations such as the ABA, and provision of information through websites, pamphlets, and books. Prior research indicates that face-to-face support is more effective than telephone contact (Britton, McCormic, Renfrew, Wade, & King, 2009). Given the increasing costs associated with the provision of personalized face-to-face professional support and the need for some women to maximize privacy, discretion, and judgment-free consultations, there is a gap that could be filled by the use of m-technologies such as text messaging and other social media. The research team developed MumBubConnect; a two-way SMS system which combined the personalized aspects of face-to-face contact but maintained levels of privacy. The use of SMS was immediate, portable, and overcame many of the barriers associated with embarrassment. An Page 205 of 312 online survey of 130 breastfeeding mothers indicated that MumBubConnect facilitated the seeking of social support using m-technology, increased self-efficacy and maintained the desire behaviour.

Service convenience and social servicescape : retail vs hedonic setting

Purpose – While there have been numerous studies on the antecedents and consequences of service quality, there has been little investigation of the moderators of service quality. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the effects of two moderators: service convenience and the social servicescape. The moderating effects are tested in two service settings: retail and hedonic (concert). Design/methodology/approach – A survey of 270 customers at kitchen display showrooms and 320 concert-goers was undertaken. The results were analysed using regression analysis. Findings – The results show support for ten of the 12 hypotheses. Service convenience moderated the relationships between perceived service quality and its three sub-dimensions (interaction, environment, and outcome quality), differently in different settings (retail vs hedonic). This supports the authors' general argument that the outcome dimension tends to be more important to customers in a retail setting, while interaction and environment quality dimensions tend to be more important in hedonic service consumption. Practical implications – These findings suggest that managers need to use different service management tactics in retail and hedonic service settings. Specifically managers in retail settings need to pay more attention to service convenience to achieve service quality and managers in hedonic settings should concentrate on the social servicescape. Originality/value – This paper is the first to test the moderating factors of service convenience and social servicescape on service quality.

Ocularcentric labour : ‘you don’t do this for money’

Building on the tradition of emotional labour and aesthetic labour, this study of fitness workers introduces the concept of “ocularcentric labour” (the worker seeking the adoring gaze of the client as the primary reward). It is a state in which labour’s quest for the psycho-social rewards gained from their own body image shapes the employment relationship (both the organization of work and the conditions of employment). We argue that for many fitness workers the goal is to gain access to the positional economy of the fitness centre to promote their celebrity. For this they are willing to trade-off standard conditions of employment, and exchange traditional employment rewards for the more intrinsic psycho-social rewards gained through the exposure of their physical capital to the adoration of their gazing clients. Significantly, with ocularcentric labour the worker becomes both the site of production and consumption.

Measurement of in-service insulated rail joint tie plate response

This paper presents the results of a recent investigation into Insulated Rail Joint Tie Plate fatigue failures. In particular it focuses on the results of data obtained through field strain gauge and accelerometer measurements of in-service Insulated Rail Joint Tie Plates. These measurements have identified a significant variability in the strains present in similar joints operating under identical load conditions. This variability in stress invariably has a significant influence on the life of the joints. The results of rainflow counting and a fatigue analysis are also presented.

Client adaptiveness in entrepreneurship and its effect on sustained competitive advantage in project-orientated service firms

Important differences exist in how service firms operate in comparison with manufacturing firms (c.f. Johne & Storey, 1998; Tether, 2002). Despite these significant differences, not much is known whether these differences extrapolate to entrepreneurship in the services industry. This study seeks to address this gap by investigating how value creation occurs when project-oriented firms1 adopt client adaptiveness as part of their entrepreneurial posture. Specifically, we examine the effect of client adaptiveness on sustained competitive advantage. Client adaptiveness is conceptualized as the extent to which an organization engages in identifying and responding to perceived client needs and wants which reflects the service firm’s propensity to dynamically synchronize with the project/client requirements.

Tell me what you see : Pre-service teachers' recognition of exemplary digital pedagogy

How do you identify "good" teaching practice in the complexity of a real classroom? How do you know that beginning teachers can recognise effective digital pedagogy when they see it? How can teacher educators see through their students’ eyes? The study in this paper has arisen from our interest in what pre-service teachers “see” when observing effective classroom practice and how this might reveal their own technological, pedagogical and content knowledge. We asked 104 pre-service teachers from Early Years, Primary and Secondary cohorts to watch and comment upon selected exemplary videos of teachers using ICT (information and communication technologies) in Science. The pre-service teachers recorded their observations using a simple PMI (plus, minus, interesting) matrix which were then coded using the SOLO Taxonomy to look for evidence of their familiarity with and judgements of digital pedagogies. From this, we determined that the majority of preservice teachers we surveyed were using a descriptive rather than a reflective strategy, that is, not extending beyond what was demonstrated in the teaching exemplar or differentiating between action and purpose. We also determined that this method warrants wider trialling as a means of evaluating students’ understandings of the complexity of the digital classroom.

Tax evasion, inequality, and progressive taxes : a political economy perspective

The standard approach to tax compliance applies the economics-of-crime methodology pioneered by Becker (1968): in its first application, due to Allingham and Sandmo (1972) it models the behaviour of agents as a decision involving a choice of the extent of their income to report to tax authorities, given a certain institutional environment, represented by parameters such as the probability of detection and penalties in the event the agent is caught. While this basic framework yields important insights on tax compliance behavior, it has some critical limitations. Specifically, it indicates a level of compliance that is significantly below what is observed in the data. This thesis revisits the original framework with a view towards addressing this issue, and examining the political economy implications of tax evasion for progressivity in the tax structure. The approach followed involves building a macroeconomic, dynamic equilibrium model for the purpose of examining these issues, by using a step-wise model building procedure starting with some very simple variations of the basic Allingham and Sandmo construct, which are eventually integrated to a dynamic general equilibrium overlapping generations framework with heterogeneous agents. One of the variations involves incorporating the Allingham and Sandmo construct into a two-period model of a small open economy of the type originally attributed to Fisher (1930). A further variation of this simple construct involves allowing agents to initially decide whether to evade taxes or not. In the event they decide to evade, the agents then have to decide the extent of income or wealth they wish to under-report. We find that the ‘evade or not’ assumption has strikingly different and more realistic implications for the extent of evasion, and demonstrate that it is a more appropriate modeling strategy in the context of macroeconomic models, which are essentially dynamic in nature, and involve consumption smoothing across time and across various states of nature. Specifically, since deciding to undertake tax evasion impacts on the consumption smoothing ability of the agent by creating two states of nature in which the agent is ‘caught’ or ‘not caught’, there is a possibility that their utility under certainty, when they choose not to evade, is higher than the expected utility obtained when they choose to evade. Furthermore, the simple two-period model incorporating an ‘evade or not’ choice can be used to demonstrate some strikingly different political economy implications relative to its Allingham and Sandmo counterpart. In variations of the two models that allow for voting on the tax parameter, we find that agents typically choose to vote for a high degree of progressivity by choosing the highest available tax rate from the menu of choices available to them. There is, however, a small range of inequality levels for which agents in the ‘evade or not’ model vote for a relatively low value of the tax rate. The final steps in the model building procedure involve grafting the two-period models with a political economy choice into a dynamic overlapping generations setting with more general, non-linear tax schedules and a ‘cost-of evasion’ function that is increasing in the extent of evasion. Results based on numerical simulations of these models show further improvement in the model’s ability to match empirically plausible levels of tax evasion. In addition, the differences between the political economy implications of the ‘evade or not’ version of the model and its Allingham and Sandmo counterpart are now very striking; there is now a large range of values of the inequality parameter for which agents in the ‘evade or not’ model vote for a low degree of progressivity. This is because, in the ‘evade or not’ version of the model, low values of the tax rate encourages a large number of agents to choose the ‘not-evade’ option, so that the redistributive mechanism is more ‘efficient’ relative to the situations in which tax rates are high. Some further implications of the models of this thesis relate to whether variations in the level of inequality, and parameters such as the probability of detection and penalties for tax evasion matter for the political economy results. We find that (i) the political economy outcomes for the tax rate are quite insensitive to changes in inequality, and (ii) the voting outcomes change in non-monotonic ways in response to changes in the probability of detection and penalty rates. Specifically, the model suggests that changes in inequality should not matter, although the political outcome for the tax rate for a given level of inequality is conditional on whether there is a large or small or large extent of evasion in the economy. We conclude that further theoretical research into macroeconomic models of tax evasion is required to identify the structural relationships underpinning the link between inequality and redistribution in the presence of tax evasion. The models of this thesis provide a necessary first step in that direction.

Stakeholder service delivery expectations of military facilities management

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the quality of service of a South East Asian country's military facilities management organisation. Design/methodology/approach – An interview survey and questionnaire survey were used to obtain a description and summary of stakeholders’ expectations and the extent to which they were being satisfied by the services provided. Findings – The method provides a useful means of identifying and prioritising varying expectations between stakeholder groups and of indicating any mismatch in expectations in the management of military facilities. Social implications – The development and use of a method to test and improve the effectiveness and efficiency of the management of military facilities helps in providing better value for money. Originality/value – In addition to re-affirming Parasuraman's overall dimensions of service expectation, the empirical summary of the stakeholders’ expectations obtained in this way is of practical value for the service provider in developing a strategy for expectation management. For the case studied, it is also apparent that although the current processes in service delivery are well understood by all involved stakeholders, there is a need for further improvement with regards to their expectation levels. It is also one of the very few reported studies on the management of military facilities.