Modelling survival data to account for model uncertainty: a single model or model averaging?

This study considered the problem of predicting survival, based on three alternative models: a single Weibull, a mixture of Weibulls and a cure model. Instead of the common procedure of choosing a single “best” model, where “best” is defined in terms of goodness of fit to the data, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach was adopted to account for model uncertainty. This was illustrated using a case study in which the aim was the description of lymphoma cancer survival with covariates given by phenotypes and gene expression. The results of this study indicate that if the sample size is sufficiently large, one of the three models emerge as having highest probability given the data, as indicated by the goodness of fit measure; the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). However, when the sample size was reduced, no single model was revealed as “best”, suggesting that a BMA approach would be appropriate. Although a BMA approach can compromise on goodness of fit to the data (when compared to the true model), it can provide robust predictions and facilitate more detailed investigation of the relationships between gene expression and patient survival. Keywords: Bayesian modelling; Bayesian model averaging; Cure model; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Mixture model; Survival analysis; Weibull distribution

Is recovery driven by central or peripheral factors? A role for the brain in recovery following intermittent-sprint exercise

Prolonged intermittent-sprint exercise (i.e., team sports) induce disturbances in skeletal muscle structure and function that are associated with reduced contractile function, a cascade of inflammatory responses, perceptual soreness, and a delayed return to optimal physical performance. In this context, recovery from exercise-induced fatigue is traditionally treated from a peripheral viewpoint, with the regeneration of muscle physiology and other peripheral factors the target of recovery strategies. The direction of this research narrative on post-exercise recovery differs to the increasing emphasis on the complex interaction between both central and peripheral factors regulating exercise intensity during exercise performance. Given the role of the central nervous system (CNS) in motor-unit recruitment during exercise, it too may have an integral role in post-exercise recovery. Indeed, this hypothesis is indirectly supported by an apparent disconnect in time-course changes in physiological and biochemical markers resultant from exercise and the ensuing recovery of exercise performance. Equally, improvements in perceptual recovery, even withstanding the physiological state of recovery, may interact with both feed-forward/feed-back mechanisms to influence subsequent efforts. Considering the research interest afforded to recovery methodologies designed to hasten the return of homeostasis within the muscle, the limited focus on contributors to post-exercise recovery from CNS origins is somewhat surprising. Based on this context, the current review aims to outline the potential contributions of the brain to performance recovery after strenuous exercise.

People living in hilly residential areas in metropolitan Perth have less diabetes : spurious association or important environmental determinant?

BACKGROUND: Variations in 'slope' (how steep or flat the ground is) may be good for health. As walking up hills is a physiologically vigorous physical activity and can contribute to weight control, greater neighbourhood slopes may provide a protective barrier to weight gain, and help prevent Type 2 diabetes onset. We explored whether living in 'hilly' neighbourhoods was associated with diabetes prevalence among the Australian adult population. METHODS: Participants ([greater than or equal to]25years; n=11,406) who completed the Western Australian Health and Wellbeing Surveillance System Survey (2003-2009) were asked whether or not they had medically-diagnosed diabetes. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software was used to calculate a neighbourhood mean slope score, and other built environment measures at 1600m around each participant's home. Logistic regression models were used to predict the odds of self-reported diabetes after progressive adjustment for individual measures (i.e., age, sex), socioeconomic status (i.e., education, income), built environment, destinations, nutrition, and amount of walking. RESULTS: After full adjustment, the odds of self-reported diabetes was 0.72 (95% CI 0.55-0.95) and 0.52 (95% CI 0.39-0.69) for adults living in neighbourhoods with moderate and higher levels of slope, respectively, compared with adults living in neighbourhoods with the lowest levels of slope. The odds of having diabetes was 13% lower (odds ratio 0.87; 95% CI 0.80-0.94) for each increase of one percent in mean slope. CONCLUSIONS: Living in a hilly neighbourhood may be protective of diabetes onset or this finding is spurious. Nevertheless, the results are promising and have implications for future research and the practice of flattening land in new housing developments.

Fibrogenic stresses activate different mitogen-activated protein kinase pathways in renal epithelial, endothelial or fibroblast cell populations

Fibrogenic stresses promote progression of renal tubulointerstitial fibrosis, disparately affecting survival, proliferation and trans-differentiation of intrinsic renal cell populations through ill-defined biomolecular pathways. We investigated the effect of fibrogenic stresses on the activation of cell-specific mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) in renal fibroblast, epithelial and endothelial cell populations. The relative outcomes (cell death, proliferation, trans-differentiation) associated with activation or inhibition of extracellular-regulated protein kinase (ERK) or stress activated/c-Jun N terminal kinase (JNK) were analysed in each renal cell population after challenge with oxidative stress (1 mmol/L H2O2), transforming growth factor-beta1 (TGF-beta1, 10 ng/mL) or tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha, 50 ng/mL) over 0-20 h. Apoptosis increased significantly in all cell types after oxidative stress (P < 0.05). In fibroblasts, oxidative stress caused the activation of ERK (pERK) but not JNK (pJNK). Inhibition of ERK by PD98059 supported its role in a fibroblast death pathway. In epithelial and endothelial cells, oxidative stress-induced apoptosis was preceded by early induction of pERK, but its inhibition did not support a pro-apoptotic role. Early ERK activity may be conducive to their survival or promote the trans-differentiation of epithelial cells. In epithelial and endothelial cells, oxidative stress induced pJNK acutely. Pretreatment with SP600125 (JNK inhibitor) verified its pro-apoptotic activity only in epithelial cells. Transforming growth factor-beta1 did not significantly alter mitosis or apoptosis in any of the cell types, nor did it alter MAPK activity. Tumor necrosis factor-alpha caused increased apoptosis with no associated change in MAPK activity. Our results demonstrate renal cell-specific differences in the activation of ERK and JNK following fibrotic insult, which may be useful for targeting excessive fibroblast proliferation in chronic fibrosis.

Are hypoxia or modulus causes of contact lens-associated keratitis?

In this, the 10th anniversary of the introduction of silicone hydrogel contact lenses onto the market, it is perhaps timely to attempt to reconcile the apparently disparate results from different authors in relation to the incidence of keratitis with silicone hydrogel lenses and indeed, with contact lenses in general. In attempting to understand the findings of these various studies, we propose that consideration be given to the competing effects of an improved physiological response due to increased corneal oxygenation with these lenses versus their mechanical impact...

Evolution or revolution?

Cosmetic tinted soft lenses, which were prescribed in 4-8 per cent of soft lens fits between 1997-2001, have declined in use and since 2003 have accounted for less than 2 per cent of soft lens fits. In general, there has been a slow but steady increase in the rate of prescribing for presbyopia.

Phase III study of afatinib or cisplatin plus pemetrexed in patients with metastatic lung adenocarcinoma with EGFR mutations

Purpose The LUX-Lung 3 study investigated the efficacy of chemotherapy compared with afatinib, a selective, orally bioavailable ErbB family blocker that irreversibly blocks signaling from epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR/ErbB1), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2/ErbB2), and ErbB4 and has wide-spectrum preclinical activity against EGFR mutations. A phase II study of afatinib in EGFR mutation-positive lung adenocarcinoma demonstrated high response rates and progression-free survival (PFS). Patients and Methods In this phase III study, eligible patients with stage IIIB/IV lung adenocarcinoma were screened for EGFR mutations. Mutation-positive patients were stratified by mutation type (exon 19 deletion, L858R, or other) and race (Asian or non-Asian) before two-to-one random assignment to 40 mg afatinib per day or up to six cycles of cisplatin plus pemetrexed chemotherapy at standard doses every 21 days. The primary end point was PFS by independent review. Secondary end points included tumor response, overall survival, adverse events, and patient-reported outcomes (PROs). Results A total of 1,269 patients were screened, and 345 were randomly assigned to treatment. Median PFS was 11.1 months for afatinib and 6.9 months for chemotherapy (hazard ratio [HR], 0.58; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.78; P = .001). Median PFS among those with exon 19 deletions and L858R EGFR mutations (n = 308) was 13.6 months for afatinib and 6.9 months for chemotherapy (HR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.34 to 0.65; P = .001). The most common treatmentrelated adverse events were diarrhea, rash/acne, and stomatitis for afatinib and nausea, fatigue, and decreased appetite for chemotherapy. PROs favored afatinib, with better control of cough, dyspnea, and pain. Conclusion Afatinib is associated with prolongation of PFS when compared with standard doublet chemotherapy in patients with advanced lung adenocarcinoma and EGFR mutations.

Symptom control and quality of life in lux-lung 3 : a phase III study of afatinib or cisplatin/pemetrexed in patients with advanced lung adenocarcinoma with EGFR mutations

Purpose Patient-reported symptoms and health-related quality of life (QoL) benefits were investigated in a randomized, phase III trial of afatinib or cisplatin/pemetrexed. Patients and Methods Three hundred forty-five patients with advanced epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutation-positive lung adenocarcinoma were randomly assigned 2:1 to afatinib 40 mg per day or up to six cycles of cisplatin/pemetrexed. Lung cancer symptoms and health-related QoL were assessed every 21 days until progression using the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire C30 and Lung Cancer-13 questionnaires. Analyses of cough, dyspnea, and pain were preplanned, including percentage of patients who improved on therapy, time to deterioration of symptoms, and change in symptoms over time. Results Questionnaire compliance was high. Compared with chemotherapy, afatinib significantly delayed the time to deterioration for cough (hazard ratio [HR], 0.60; 95% CI, 0.41 to 0.87; P = .007) and dyspnea (HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.50 to 0.93; P = .015), but not pain (HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.62 to 1.10; P = .19). More patients on afatinib (64%) versus chemotherapy (50%) experienced improvements in dyspnea scores (P lt; .010). Differences in mean scores over time significantly favored afatinib over chemotherapy for cough (P lt; .001) and dyspnea (P = .001). Afatinib showed significantly better mean scores over time in global health status/QoL (P = .015) and physical (P = .001), role (P = .004), and cognitive (P lt; .007) functioning compared with chemotherapy. Fatigue and nausea were worse with chemotherapy, whereas diarrhea, dysphagia, and sore mouth were worse with afatinib (all P = .01). Conclusion In patients with lung adenocarcinoma with EGFR mutations, first-line afatinib was associated with better control of cough and dyspnea compared with chemotherapy, although diarrhea, dysphagia, and sore mouth were worse. Global health status/QoL was also improved over time with afatinib compared with chemotherapy.

Long-term azithromycin for Indigenous children with non-cystic-fibrosis bronchiectasis or chronic suppurative lung disease (Bronchiectasis Intervention Study) : a multicentre, double-blind, randomised controlled trial

Background Indigenous children in high-income countries have a heavy burden of bronchiectasis unrelated to cystic fibrosis. We aimed to establish whether long-term azithromycin reduced pulmonary exacerbations in Indigenous children with non-cystic-fibrosis bronchiectasis or chronic suppurative lung disease. Methods Between Nov 12, 2008, and Dec 23, 2010, we enrolled Indigenous Australian, Maori, and Pacific Island children aged 1—8 years with either bronchiectasis or chronic suppurative lung disease into a multicentre, double-blind, randomised, parallel-group, placebo-controlled trial. Eligible children had had at least one pulmonary exacerbation in the previous 12 months. Children were randomised (1:1 ratio, by computer-generated sequence with permuted block design, stratified by study site and exacerbation frequency [1—2 vs ≥3 episodes in the preceding 12 months]) to receive either azithromycin (30 mg/kg) or placebo once a week for up to 24 months. Allocation concealment was achieved by double-sealed, opaque envelopes; participants, caregivers, and study personnel were masked to assignment until after data analysis. The primary outcome was exacerbation (respiratory episodes treated with antibiotics) rate. Analysis of the primary endpoint was by intention to treat. At enrolment and at their final clinic visits, children had deep nasal swabs collected, which we analysed for antibiotic-resistant bacteria. This study is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry; ACTRN12610000383066. Findings 45 children were assigned to azithromycin and 44 to placebo. The study was stopped early for feasibility reasons on Dec 31, 2011, thus children received the intervention for 12—24 months. The mean treatment duration was 20·7 months (SD 5·7), with a total of 902 child-months in the azithromycin group and 875 child-months in the placebo group. Compared with the placebo group, children receiving azithromycin had significantly lower exacerbation rates (incidence rate ratio 0·50; 95% CI 0·35—0·71; p<0·0001). However, children in the azithromycin group developed significantly higher carriage of azithromycin-resistant bacteria (19 of 41, 46%) than those receiving placebo (four of 37, 11%; p=0·002). The most common adverse events were non-pulmonary infections (71 of 112 events in the azithromycin group vs 132 of 209 events in the placebo group) and bronchiectasis-related events (episodes or investigations; 22 of 112 events in the azithromycin group vs 48 of 209 events in the placebo group); however, study drugs were well tolerated with no serious adverse events being attributed to the intervention. Interpretation Once-weekly azithromycin for up to 24 months decreased pulmonary exacerbations in Indigenous children with non-cystic-fibrosis bronchiectasis or chronic suppurative lung disease. However, this strategy was also accompanied by increased carriage of azithromycin-resistant bacteria, the clinical consequences of which are uncertain, and will need careful monitoring and further study.

Quality of life of women with lower limb swelling or lymphedema 3-5 years following endometrial cancer

Objective To quantitatively assess and compare the quality of life (QoL) of women with a self-reported diagnosis of lower limb lymphedema (LLL), to women with lower limb swelling (LLS), and to women without LLL or LLS following treatment for endometrial cancer. Methods 1399 participants in the Australian National Endometrial Cancer Study were sent a follow-up questionnaire 3–5 years after diagnosis. Women were asked if they had experienced swelling in the lower limbs and, if so, whether they had received a diagnosis of lymphedema by a health professional. The 639 women who responded were categorised as: Women with LLL (n = 68), women with LLS (n = 177) and women without LLL or LLS (n = 394). Multivariable-adjusted generalized linear models were used to compare women’s physical and mental QoL by LLL status. Results On average, women were 65 years of age and 4 years after diagnosis. Women with LLL had clinically lower physical QoL (M= 41.8, SE= 1.4) than women without LLL or LLS (M= 45.1, SE= 0.8, p = .07), however, their mental QoL was within the normative range (M= 49.6; SE= 1.1 p = 1.0). Women with LLS had significantly lower physical (M= 41.0, SE= 1.0, p = .003) and mental QoL (M= 46.8; SE= 0.8, p < .0001) than women without LLL or LLS (Mental QoL: M= 50.6, SE= 0.8). Conclusion Although LLL was associated with reductions in physical QoL, LLS was related to reductions in both physical and mental QoL 3-5 years after cancer treatment. Early referral to evidence-based lymphedema programs may prevent long-term impairments to women’s QoL.

Continuity, Rupture, or just more of the 'Volatile and Contradictory': Glimpses of New South Wales' Penal Practice behind and through the Discursive

Throughout much of the western world more and more people are being sent to prison, one of a number of changes inspired by a 'new punitiveness' in penal and political affairs. This book seeks to understand these developments, bringing together leading authorities in the field to provide a wide-ranging analysis of new penal trends, compare the development of differing patterns of punishment across different types of societies, and to provide a range of theoretical analyses and commentaries to help understand their significance. As well as increases in imprisonment this book is also concerned to address a number of other aspects of 'the new punitiveness': firstly, the return of a number of forms of punishment previously thought extinct or inappropriate, such as the return of shaming punishments and chain gangs (in parts of the USA); and secondly, the increasing public involvement in penal affairs and penal development, for example in relation to length of sentences and the California Three Strikes Law, and a growing accreditation of the rights of victims. The book will be essential reading for students seeking to understand trends and theories of punishment on law, criminology, penology and other courses.

Graphic death in the news media : present or absent?

The debate over the absence or presence of death in public discourse has dominated death studies for some time. While the argument that death had been removed from public discourse and only existed in the private realm dominated at first, in recent years scholars have come to accept that death has moved back into public discourse. An important aspect has been the role played by the mass media. However, there has been little empirical research as to what level of death is actually visible, for example in terms of photographs. To this end, this paper examines how two German and two Australian newspapers cover death in terms of graphic photographs. By examining the number and types of photographs published during a 2-month timeframe, as well as through in-depth interviews with journalists, this paper argues that visible death is still largely absent from public discourse. Importantly, there exist differences as to what level of graphic death is acceptable between individual newspapers, as well as countries, supporting the argument that the absence/presence of death dichotomy needs to be viewed in a much more complex light.

A comparison study on hydrogen sensing performance of MoO3 nanoplatelets coated with a thin layer of Ta2O5 or La2O3

There has been significant interest in developing metal oxide films with high surface area-to-volume ratio nanostructures particularly in substantially increasing the performance of Pt/oxide/semiconductor Schottky-diode gas sensors. While retaining the surface morphology of these devices, they can be further improved by modifying their nanostructured surface with a thin metal oxide layer. In this work, we analyse and compare the electrical and hydrogen-sensing properties of MoO3 nanoplatelets coated with a 4 nm layer of tantalum oxide (Ta2O5) or lanthanum oxide (La2O3). We explain in our study, that the presence of numerous defect traps at the surface (and the bulk) of the thin high-� layer causes a substantial trapping of charge during hydrogen adsorption. As a result, the interface between the Pt electrode and the thin oxide layer becomes highly polarised. Measurement results also show that the nanoplatelets coated with Ta2O5 can enable the device to be more sensitive (a larger voltage shift under hydrogen exposure) than those coated with La2O3.