Model refinement through high-performance computing: an agent-based HIV example

Background Recent advances in Immunology highlighted the importance of local properties on the overall progression of HIV infection. In particular, the gastrointestinal tract is seen as a key area during early infection, and the massive cell depletion associated with it may influence subsequent disease progression. This motivated the development of a large-scale agent-based model. Results Lymph nodes are explicitly implemented, and considerations on parallel computing permit large simulations and the inclusion of local features. The results obtained show that GI tract inclusion in the model leads to an accelerated disease progression, during both the early stages and the long-term evolution, compared to a theoretical, uniform model. Conclusions These results confirm the potential of treatment policies currently under investigation, which focus on this region. They also highlight the potential of this modelling framework, incorporating both agent-based and network-based components, in the context of complex systems where scaling-up alone does not result in models providing additional insights.

A parallel approach to social network generation and agent-based epidemic simulation

Understanding the dynamics of disease spread is essential in contexts such as estimating load on medical services, as well as risk assessment and interven- tion policies against large-scale epidemic outbreaks. However, most of the information is available after the outbreak itself, and preemptive assessment is far from trivial. Here, we report on an agent-based model developed to investigate such epidemic events in a stylised urban environment. For most diseases, infection of a new individual may occur from casual contact in crowds as well as from repeated interactions with social partners such as work colleagues or family members. Our model therefore accounts for these two phenomena. Given the scale of the system, efficient parallel computing is required. In this presentation, we focus on aspects related to paralllelisation for large networks generation and massively multi-agent simulations.

Prediction of GMA welding characteristic parameter by artificial neural network system

Nowadays, demand for automated Gas metal arc welding (GMAW) is growing and consequently need for intelligent systems is increased to ensure the accuracy of the procedure. To date, welding pool geometry has been the most used factor in quality assessment of intelligent welding systems. But, it has recently been found that Mahalanobis Distance (MD) not only can be used for this purpose but also is more efficient. In the present paper, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) has been used for prediction of MD parameter. However, advantages and disadvantages of other methods have been discussed. The Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm was found to be the most effective algorithm for GMAW process. It is known that the number of neurons plays an important role in optimal network design. In this work, using trial and error method, it has been found that 30 is the optimal number of neurons. The model has been investigated with different number of layers in Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) architecture and has been shown that for the aim of this work the optimal result is obtained when using MLP with one layer. Robustness of the system has been evaluated by adding noise into the input data and studying the effect of the noise in prediction capability of the network. The experiments for this study were conducted in an automated GMAW setup that was integrated with data acquisition system and prepared in a laboratory for welding of steel plate with 12 mm in thickness. The accuracy of the network was evaluated by Root Mean Squared (RMS) error between the measured and the estimated values. The low error value (about 0.008) reflects the good accuracy of the model. Also the comparison of the predicted results by ANN and the test data set showed very good agreement that reveals the predictive power of the model. Therefore, the ANN model offered in here for GMA welding process can be used effectively for prediction goals.

Impact of technology uptake on an Australian electricity distribution network

This paper presents simulation results for future electricity grids using an agent-based model developed with MODAM (MODular Agent-based Model). MODAM is introduced and its use demonstrated through four simulations based on a scenario that expects a rise of on-site renewable generators and electric vehicles (EV) usage. The simulations were run over many years, for two areas in Townsville, Australia, capturing variability in space of the technology uptake, and for two charging methods for EV, capturing people's behaviours and their impact on the time of the peak load. Impact analyses of these technologies were performed over the areas, down to the distribution transformer level, where greater variability of their contribution to the assets peak load was observed. The MODAM models can be used for different purposes such as impact of renewables on grid sizing, or on greenhouse gas emissions. The insights gained from using MODAM for technology assessment are discussed.

Retrieving trip information from a discrete detectors network : The case of Brisbane Bluetooth detectors

Automatic Vehicle Identification Systems are being increasingly used as a new source of travel information. As in the last decades these systems relied on expensive new technologies, few of them were scattered along a networks making thus Travel-Time and Average Speed estimation their main objectives. However, as their price dropped, the opportunity of building dense AVI networks arose, as in Brisbane where more than 250 Bluetooth detectors are now installed. As a consequence this technology represents an effective means to acquire accurate time dependant Origin Destination information. In order to obtain reliable estimations, however, a number of issues need to be addressed. Some of these problems stem from the structure of a network made out of isolated detectors itself while others are inherent of Bluetooth technology (overlapping detection area, missing detections,\...). The aim of this paper is threefold: First, after having presented the level of details that can be reached with a network of isolated detectors we present how we modelled Brisbane's network, keeping only the information valuable for the retrieval of trip information. Second, we give an overview of the issues inherent to the Bluetooth technology and we propose a method for retrieving the itineraries of the individual Bluetooth vehicles. Last, through a comparison with Brisbane Transport Strategic Model results, we highlight the opportunities and the limits of Bluetooth detectors networks. The aim of this paper is twofold. We first give a comprehensive overview of the aforementioned issues. Further, we propose a methodology that can be followed, in order to cleanse, correct and aggregate Bluetooth data. We postulate that the methods introduced by this paper are the first crucial steps that need to be followed in order to compute accurate Origin-Destination matrices in urban road networks.

Application of a Bayesian Network complex system model to a successful community electricity demand reduction program

Utilities worldwide are focused on supplying peak electricity demand reliably and cost effectively, requiring a thorough understanding of all the factors influencing residential electricity use at peak times. An electricity demand reduction project based on comprehensive residential consumer engagement was established within an Australian community in 2008, and by 2011, peak demand had decreased to below pre-intervention levels. This paper applied field data discovered through qualitative in-depth interviews of 22 residential households at the community to a Bayesian Network complex system model to examine whether the system model could explain successful peak demand reduction in the case study location. The knowledge and understanding acquired through insights into the major influential factors and the potential impact of changes to these factors on peak demand would underpin demand reduction intervention strategies for a wider target group.

A recurrent network in the lateral amygdala: A mechanism for temporal coincidence detection

The dorsal lateral amygdala (LAd) is a vital nucleus for the formation of associations between aversive unconditioned stimuli (US) and neutral stimuli, such as auditory tones, which can become conditioned (CS) to the US through temporal pairing. Important aspects of CS-US associations are believed to occur within the LAd, however relatively little is known about the temporal behavior of local LAd networks. Information about the CS and US enters the LA via a rapid and direct thalamic input and a longer latency cortical path...

Autonomous helicopter hover using an artificial neural network

Details the developments to date of an unmanned air vehicle (UAV) based on a standard size 60 model helicopter. The design goal is to have the helicopter achieve stable hover with the aid of an INS and stereo vision. The focus of the paper is on the development of an artificial neural network (ANN) that makes use of only the INS data to generate hover commands, which are used to directly manipulate the flight servos. Current results show that networks incorporating some form of recurrency (state history) offer little advantage over those without. At this stage, the ANN has partially maintained periods of hover even with misaligned sensors.

Choose wisely: Network, ontology and annotation resources for the analysis of Staphylococcus aureus omics data

Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) is a prominent human and livestock pathogen investigated widely using omic technologies. Critically, due to availability, low visibility or scattered resources, robust network and statistical contextualisation of the resulting data is generally under-represented. Here, we present novel meta-analyses of freely-accessible molecular network and gene ontology annotation information resources for S. aureus omics data interpretation. Furthermore, through the application of the gene ontology annotation resources we demonstrate their value and ability (or lack-there-of) to summarise and statistically interpret the emergent properties of gene expression and protein abundance changes using publically available data. This analysis provides simple metrics for network selection and demonstrates the availability and impact that gene ontology annotation selection can have on the contextualisation of bacterial omics data.

Prior and posterior linear pooling for combining expert opinions: Uses and impact on Bayesian Networks

The use of expert knowledge to quantify a Bayesian Network (BN) is necessary when data is not available. This however raises questions regarding how opinions from multiple experts can be used in a BN. Linear pooling is a popular method for combining probability assessments from multiple experts. In particular, Prior Linear Pooling (PrLP), which pools opinions then places them into the BN is a common method. This paper firstly proposes an alternative pooling method, Posterior Linear Pooling (PoLP). This method constructs a BN for each expert, then pools the resulting probabilities at the nodes of interest. Secondly, it investigates the advantages and disadvantages of using these pooling methods to combine the opinions of multiple experts. Finally, the methods are applied to an existing BN, the Wayfinding Bayesian Network Model, to investigate the behaviour of different groups of people and how these different methods may be able to capture such differences. The paper focusses on 6 nodes Human Factors, Environmental Factors, Wayfinding, Communication, Visual Elements of Communication and Navigation Pathway, and three subgroups Gender (female, male),Travel Experience (experienced, inexperienced), and Travel Purpose (business, personal) and finds that different behaviors can indeed be captured by the different methods.

Responding to black markets: Role of IT and network structures

This paper presents the unique black markets of asset pooling and leasing services, which exposes the nature and extent of industry-specific threats. We explore how firms providing such services together with their network structures that constitute the foundations of asset pooling and leasing respond to the threat of black markets. We encapsulate detecting and encountering the threat of black markets through the theoretical lens of agility, which encompasses the elements of sensing and responding (Overby et al. 2006; Roberts and Grover 2012). This novel concept of responding to threats using the agility lens has not been adequately addressed by past studies on enterprise agility. Through a case study of a global asset pooling and leasing company, we reveal the criticality of network structures, the impracticality of IT and inadequate tracking mechanisms that challenge firms in minimizing such threats.

Integrated decoupling and matching network incorporated in the ground plane of a compact monopole array

Compact arrays enable various applications such as antenna beam-forming and multi-input, multi-output (MIMO) schemes on limited-size platforms. The reduced element spacing in compact arrays introduces high levels of mutual coupling which can affect the performance of the adaptive array. This coupling causes a mismatch at the input ports, which disturbs the performance of the individual elements in the array and affects the implementation of beam steering. In this article, a reactive decoupling network for a 3-element monopole array is used to establish port isolation while simultaneously matching input impedance at each port to the system impendence. The integrated decoupling and matching network is incorporated in the ground plane of the monopole array, providing further development scope for beamforming using phase shifters and power splitters in double-layered circuits.

Formal modelling and analysis of DNP3 secure authentication

Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems are one of the key foundations of smart grids. The Distributed Network Protocol version 3 (DNP3) is a standard SCADA protocol designed to facilitate communications in substations and smart grid nodes. The protocol is embedded with a security mechanism called Secure Authentication (DNP3-SA). This mechanism ensures that end-to-end communication security is provided in substations. This paper presents a formal model for the behavioural analysis of DNP3-SA using Coloured Petri Nets (CPN). Our DNP3-SA CPN model is capable of testing and verifying various attack scenarios: modification, replay and spoofing, combined complex attack and mitigation strategies. Using the model has revealed a previously unidentified flaw in the DNP3-SA protocol that can be exploited by an attacker that has access to the network interconnecting DNP3 devices. An attacker can launch a successful attack on an outstation without possessing the pre-shared keys by replaying a previously authenticated command with arbitrary parameters. We propose an update to the DNP3-SA protocol that removes the flaw and prevents such attacks. The update is validated and verified using our CPN model proving the effectiveness of the model and importance of the formal protocol analysis.

A network DEA quantity and quality-orientated production model: An application to Australian university research services

The motivation for this analysis is the recently developed Excellence in Research for Australia (ERA) program developed to assess the quality of research in Australia. The objective is to develop an appropriate empirical model that better represents the underlying production of higher education research. In general, past studies on university research performance have used standard DEA models with some quantifiable research outputs. However, these suffer from the twin maladies of an inappropriate production specification and a lack of consideration of the quality of output. By including the qualitative attributes of peer-reviewed journals, we develop a procedure that captures both quality and quantity, and apply it using a network DEA model. Our main finding is that standard DEA models tend to overstate the research efficiency of most Australian universities.