Unbiased estimating equations from working correlation models for irregularly timed repeated measures

The method of generalized estimating equation-, (GEEs) has been criticized recently for a failure to protect against misspecification of working correlation models, which in some cases leads to loss of efficiency or infeasibility of solutions. However, the feasibility and efficiency of GEE methods can be enhanced considerably by using flexible families of working correlation models. We propose two ways of constructing unbiased estimating equations from general correlation models for irregularly timed repeated measures to supplement and enhance GEE. The supplementary estimating equations are obtained by differentiation of the Cholesky decomposition of the working correlation, or as score equations for decoupled Gaussian pseudolikelihood. The estimating equations are solved with computational effort equivalent to that required for a first-order GEE. Full details and analytic expressions are developed for a generalized Markovian model that was evaluated through simulation. Large-sample ".sandwich" standard errors for working correlation parameter estimates are derived and shown to have good performance. The proposed estimating functions are further illustrated in an analysis of repeated measures of pulmonary function in children.

Kallikrein-related peptidases in prostate cancer: From molecular function to clinical application

Prostate cancer is a leading contributor to male cancer-related deaths worldwide. Kallikrein-related peptidases (KLKs) are serine proteases that exhibit deregulated expression in prostate cancer, with KLK3, or prostate specific antigen (PSA), being the widely-employed clinical biomarker for prostate cancer. Other KLKs, such as KLK2, show promise as prostate cancer biomarkers and, additionally, their altered expression has been utilised for the design of KLK-targeted therapies. There is also a large body of in vitro and in vivo evidence supporting their role in cancer-related processes. Here, we review the literature on studies to date investigating the potential of other KLKs, in addition to PSA, as biomarkers and in therapeutic options, as well as their current known functional roles in cancer progression. Increased knowledge of these KLK-mediated functions, including degradation of the extracellular matrix, local invasion, cancer cell proliferation, interactions with fibroblasts, angiogenesis, migration, bone metastasis and tumour growth in vivo, may help define new roles as prognostic biomarkers and novel therapeutic targets for this cancer.

Working correlation structure misspecification, estimation and covariate design: Implications for generalised estimating equations performance

The method of generalised estimating equations for regression modelling of clustered outcomes allows for specification of a working matrix that is intended to approximate the true correlation matrix of the observations. We investigate the asymptotic relative efficiency of the generalised estimating equation for the mean parameters when the correlation parameters are estimated by various methods. The asymptotic relative efficiency depends on three-features of the analysis, namely (i) the discrepancy between the working correlation structure and the unobservable true correlation structure, (ii) the method by which the correlation parameters are estimated and (iii) the 'design', by which we refer to both the structures of the predictor matrices within clusters and distribution of cluster sizes. Analytical and numerical studies of realistic data-analysis scenarios show that choice of working covariance model has a substantial impact on regression estimator efficiency. Protection against avoidable loss of efficiency associated with covariance misspecification is obtained when a 'Gaussian estimation' pseudolikelihood procedure is used with an AR(1) structure.

Effects of the sensorimotor training volume on sensorimotor function in patients following lower limb arthroplasty

Background Sensorimotor function is degraded in patients after lower limb arthroplasty. Sensorimotor training is thought to improve sensorimotor skills, however, the optimal training stimulus with regard to volume, frequency, duration, and intensity is still unknown. The aim of this study, therefore, was to firstly quantify the progression of sensorimotor function after total hip (THA) or knee (TKA) arthroplasty and, as second step, to evaluate effects of different sensorimotor training volumes. Methods 58 in-patients during their rehabilitation after THA or TKA participated in this prospective cohort study. Sensorimotor function was assessed using a test battery including measures of stabilization capacity, static balance, proprioception, and gait, along with a self-reported pain and function. All participants were randomly assigned to one of three intervention groups performing sensorimotor training two, four, or six times per week. Outcome measures were taken at three instances, at baseline (pre), after 1.5 weeks (mid) and at the conclusion of the 3 week program (post). Results All measurements showed significant improvements over time, with the exception of proprioception and static balance during quiet bipedal stance which showed no significant main effects for time or intervention. There was no significant effect of sensorimotor training volume on any of the outcome measures. Conclusion We were able to quantify improvements in measures of dynamic, but not static, sensorimotor function during the initial three weeks of rehabilitation following TKA/THA. Although sensorimotor improvements were independent of the training volume applied in the current study, long-term effects of sensorimotor training volume need to be investigated to optimize training stimulus recommendations.

A Bayesian decision approach for sample size determination in phase II trials

Stallard (1998, Biometrics 54, 279-294) recently used Bayesian decision theory for sample-size determination in phase II trials. His design maximizes the expected financial gains in the development of a new treatment. However, it results in a very high probability (0.65) of recommending an ineffective treatment for phase III testing. On the other hand, the expected gain using his design is more than 10 times that of a design that tightly controls the false positive error (Thall and Simon, 1994, Biometrics 50, 337-349). Stallard's design maximizes the expected gain per phase II trial, but it does not maximize the rate of gain or total gain for a fixed length of time because the rate of gain depends on the proportion: of treatments forwarding to the phase III study. We suggest maximizing the rate of gain, and the resulting optimal one-stage design becomes twice as efficient as Stallard's one-stage design. Furthermore, the new design has a probability of only 0.12 of passing an ineffective treatment to phase III study.

Proposed vehicle impact speed: Severe injury probability relationships for selected crash types

Speed is recognised as a key contributor to crash likelihood and severity, and to road safety performance in general. Its fundamental role has been recognised by making Safe Speeds one of the four pillars of the Safe System. In this context, impact speeds above which humans are likely to sustain fatal injuries have been accepted as a reference in many Safe System infrastructure policy and planning discussions. To date, there have been no proposed relationships for impact speeds above which humans are likely to sustain fatal or serious (severe) injury, a more relevant Safe System measure. A research project on Safe System intersection design required a critical review of published literature on the relationship between impact speed and probability of injury. This has led to a number of questions being raised about the origins, accuracy and appropriateness of the currently accepted impact speed–fatality probability relationships (Wramborg 2005) in many policy documents. The literature review identified alternative, more recent and more precise relationships derived from the US crash reconstruction databases (NASS/CDS). The paper proposes for discussion a set of alternative relationships between vehicle impact speed and probability of MAIS3+ (fatal and serious) injury for selected common crash types. Proposed Safe System critical impact speed values are also proposed for use in road infrastructure assessment. The paper presents the methodology and assumptions used in developing these relationships. It identifies further research needed to confirm and refine these relationships. Such relationships would form valuable inputs into future road safety policies in Australia and New Zealand.

Serum immunoreactive pancreatic lipase and cationic trypsinogen for the assessment of exocrine pancreatic function in older patients with cystic fibrosis

Indirect and qualitative tests of pancreatic function are commonly used to screen patients with cystic fibrosis for pancreatic insufficiency. In an attempt to develop a more quantitative assessment, we compared the usefulness of measuring serum pancreatic lipase using a newly developed enzyme-linked immunosorbent immunoassay with that of cationic trypsinogen using a radioimmunoassay in the assessment of exocrine pancreatic function in patients with cystic fibrosis. Previously, we have shown neither lipase nor trypsinogen to be of use in assessing pancreatic function prior to 5 years of age because the majority of patients with cystic fibrosis in early infancy have elevated serum levels regardless of pancreatic function. Therefore, we studied 77 patients with cystic fibrosis older than 5 years of age, 41 with steatorrhea and 36 without steatorrhea. In addition, 28 of 77 patients consented to undergo a quantitative pancreatic stimulation test. There was a significant difference between the steatorrheic and nonsteatorrheic patients with the steatorrheic group having lower lipase and trypsinogen values than the nonsteatorrheic group (P < .001). Sensitivities and specificities in detecting steatorrhea were 95% and 86%, respectively, for lipase and 93% and 92%, respectively, for trypsinogen. No correlations were found between the serum levels of lipase and trypsinogen and their respective duodenal concentrations because of abnormally high serum levels of both enzymes found in some nonsteatorrheic patients. We conclude from this study that both serum lipase and trypsinogen levels accurately detect steatorrhea in patients with cystic fibrosis who are older than 5 years but are imprecise indicators of specific pancreatic exocrine function above the level needed for normal fat absorption.

Impaired physical function associated with childhood obesity: How should we intervene?

- Background This study examined relationships between adiposity, physical functioning and physical activity. - Methods Obese (N=107) and healthy-weight (N=132) children aged 10-13 years underwent assessments of percent body fat (%BF, dual energy X-ray absorptiometry), knee extensor strength (KE, isokinetic dynamometry), cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF, peak oxygen uptake by cycle ergometry), physical health-related quality of life (HRQOL), worst pain intensity and walking capacity [six-minute walk (6MWT)]. Structural equation modelling was used to assess relationships between variables. - Results Moderate relationships were observed between %BF and 6MWT, KE strength corrected for mass and CRF relative to mass (r -.36 to -.69, P≤.007). Weak relationships were found between: %BF and physical HRQOL (r -.27, P=.008); CRF relative to mass and physical HRQOL (r -.24, P=.003); physical activity and 6MWT (r .17, P=.004). Squared multiple correlations showed that 29.6% variance in physical HRQOL was explained by %BF, pain and CRF relative to mass, while 28% variance in 6MWT was explained by %BF and physical activity. - Conclusions It appears that children with a higher body fat percentage have poorer KE strength, CRF and overall physical functioning. Reducing percent fat appears to be the best target to improve functioning. However, a combined approach to intervention, targeting reductions in body fat percentage, pain and improvements in physical activity and CRF may assist physical functioning.

Accelerating Pseudo-Marginal MCMC using Gaussian Processes

Pseudo-marginal methods such as the grouped independence Metropolis-Hastings (GIMH) and Markov chain within Metropolis (MCWM) algorithms have been introduced in the literature as an approach to perform Bayesian inference in latent variable models. These methods replace intractable likelihood calculations with unbiased estimates within Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. The GIMH method has the posterior of interest as its limiting distribution, but suffers from poor mixing if it is too computationally intensive to obtain high-precision likelihood estimates. The MCWM algorithm has better mixing properties, but less theoretical support. In this paper we propose to use Gaussian processes (GP) to accelerate the GIMH method, whilst using a short pilot run of MCWM to train the GP. Our new method, GP-GIMH, is illustrated on simulated data from a stochastic volatility and a gene network model.

The impact of inter-fraction set-up errors on the probability of pulmonary and cardiac complication in left-sided breast cancer patients

Purpose This study evaluated the impact of patient set-up errors on the probability of pulmonary and cardiac complications in the irradiation of left-sided breast cancer. Methods and Materials Using the CMS XiO Version 4.6 (CMS Inc., St Louis, MO) radiotherapy planning system's NTCP algorithm and the Lyman -Kutcher-Burman (LKB) model, we calculated the DVH indices for the ipsilateral lung and heart and the resultant normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCP) for radiation-induced pneumonitis and excess cardiac mortality in 12 left-sided breast cancer patients. Results Isocenter shifts in the posterior direction had the greatest effect on the lung V20, heart V25, mean and maximum doses to the lung and the heart. Dose volume histograms (DVH) results show that the ipsilateral lung V20 tolerance was exceeded in 58% of the patients after 1cm posterior shifts. Similarly, the heart V25 tolerance was exceeded after 1cm antero-posterior and left-right isocentric shifts in 70% of the patients. The baseline NTCPs for radiation-induced pneumonitis ranged from 0.73% - 3.4% with a mean value of 1.7%. The maximum reported NTCP for radiation-induced pneumonitis was 5.8% (mean 2.6%) after 1cm posterior isocentric shift. The NTCP for excess cardiac mortality were 0 % in 100% of the patients (n=12) before and after setup error simulations. Conclusions Set-up errors in left sided breast cancer patients have a statistically significant impact on the Lung NTCPs and DVH indices. However, with a central lung distance of 3cm or less (CLD <3cm), and a maximum heart distance of 1.5cm or less (MHD<1.5cm), the treatment plans could tolerate set-up errors of up to 1cm without any change in the NTCP to the heart.

Exact calculations of survival probability for diffusion on growing lines, disks, and spheres: The role of dimension

Unlike standard applications of transport theory, the transport of molecules and cells during embryonic development often takes place within growing multidimensional tissues. In this work, we consider a model of diffusion on uniformly growing lines, disks, and spheres. An exact solution of the partial differential equation governing the diffusion of a population of individuals on the growing domain is derived. Using this solution, we study the survival probability, S(t). For the standard nongrowing case with an absorbing boundary, we observe that S(t) decays to zero in the long time limit. In contrast, when the domain grows linearly or exponentially with time, we show that S(t) decays to a constant, positive value, indicating that a proportion of the diffusing substance remains on the growing domain indefinitely. Comparing S(t) for diffusion on lines, disks, and spheres indicates that there are minimal differences in S(t) in the limit of zero growth and minimal differences in S(t) in the limit of fast growth. In contrast, for intermediate growth rates, we observe modest differences in S(t) between different geometries. These differences can be quantified by evaluating the exact expressions derived and presented here.

The mechanisms of human renal epithelial cell modulation of autologous dendritic cell phenotype and function

Proximal tubule epithelial cells (PTEC) of the kidney line the proximal tubule downstream of the glomerulus and play a major role in the re-absorption of small molecular weight proteins that may pass through the glomerular filtration process. In the perturbed disease state PTEC also contribute to the inflammatory disease process via both positive and negative mechanisms via the production of inflammatory cytokines which chemo-attract leukocytes and the subsequent down-modulation of these cells to prevent uncontrolled inflammatory responses. It is well established that dendritic cells are responsible for the initiation and direction of adaptive immune responses. Both resident and infiltrating dendritic cells are localised within the tubulointerstitium of the renal cortex, in close apposition to PTEC, in inflammatory disease states. We previously demonstrated that inflammatory PTEC are able to modulate autologous human dendritic cell phenotype and functional responses. Here we extend these findings to characterise the mechanisms of this PTEC immune-modulation using primary human PTEC and autologous monocyte-derived dendritic cells (MoDC) as the model system. We demonstrate that PTEC express three inhibitory molecules: (i) cell surface PD-L1 that induces MoDC expression of PD-L1; (ii) intracellular IDO that maintains the expression of MoDC CD14, drives the expression of CD80, PD-L1 and IL-10 by MoDC and inhibits T cell stimulatory capacity; and (iii) soluble HLA-G (sHLA-G) that inhibits HLA-DR and induces IL-10 expression by MoDC. Collectively the results demonstrate that primary human PTEC are able to modulate autologous DC phenotype and function via multiple complex pathways. Further dissection of these pathways is essential to target therapeutic strategies in the treatment of inflammatory kidney disorders.

Age-related changes in hepatic function: An update on implications for drug therapy

The accumulation of deficits with increasing age results in a decline in the functional capacity of multiple organs and systems. These changes can have a significant influence on the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of prescribed drugs. Although alterations in body composition and worsening renal clearance are important considerations, for most drugs the liver has the greatest effect on metabolism. Age-related change in hepatic function thereby causes much of the variability in older people’s responses to medication. In this review, we propose that a decline in the ability of the liver to inactivate toxins may contribute to a proinflammatory state in which frailty can develop. Since inflammation also downregulates drug metabolism, medication prescribed to frail older people in accordance with disease-specific guidelines may undergo reduced systemic clearance, leading to adverse drug reactions, further functional decline and increasing polypharmacy, exacerbating rather than ameliorating frailty status. We also describe how increasing chronological age and frailty status impact liver size, blood flow and protein binding and enzymes of drug metabolism. This is used to contextualise our discussion of appropriate prescribing practices. For example, while the general axiom of ‘start low, go slow’ should underpin the initiation of medication (titrating to a defined therapeutic goal), it is important to consider whether drug clearance is flow or capacity-limited. By summarising the effect of age-related changes in hepatic function on medications commonly used in older people, we aim to provide a guide that will have high clinical utility for practising geriatricians.

Time evolution of graphene growth on SiC as a function of annealing temperature

We followed by X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) the time evolution of graphene layers obtained by annealing 3C SiC(111)/Si(111) crystals at different temperatures. The intensity of the carbon signal provides a quantification of the graphene thickness as a function of the annealing time, which follows a power law with exponent 0.5. We show that a kinetic model, based on a bottom-up growth mechanism, provides a full explanation to the evolution of the graphene thickness as a function of time, allowing to calculate the effective activation energy of the process and the energy barriers, in excellent agreement with previous theoretical results. Our study provides a complete and exhaustive picture of Si diffusion into the SiC matrix, establishing the conditions for a perfect control of the graphene growth by Si sublimation.

On the probability of dizygotic twins being concordant for two alleles at multiple polymorphic loci

Accurate determination of same-sex twin zygosity is important for medical, scientific and personal reasons. Determination may be based upon questionnaire data, blood group, enzyme isoforms and fetal membrane examination, but assignment of zygosity must ultimately be confirmed by genotypic data. Here methods are reviewed for calculating average probabilities of correctly concluding a twin pair is monozygotic, given they share the same genotypes across all loci for commonly utilized multiplex short tandem repeat (STR) kits.