Asymptotic minimax robust and misspecified Lorden quickest change detection for dependent stochastic processes

The quick detection of an abrupt unknown change in the conditional distribution of a dependent stochastic process has numerous applications. In this paper, we pose a minimax robust quickest change detection problem for cases where there is uncertainty about the post-change conditional distribution. Our minimax robust formulation is based on the popular Lorden criteria of optimal quickest change detection. Under a condition on the set of possible post-change distributions, we show that the widely known cumulative sum (CUSUM) rule is asymptotically minimax robust under our Lorden minimax robust formulation as a false alarm constraint becomes more strict. We also establish general asymptotic bounds on the detection delay of misspecified CUSUM rules (i.e. CUSUM rules that are designed with post- change distributions that differ from those of the observed sequence). We exploit these bounds to compare the delay performance of asymptotically minimax robust, asymptotically optimal, and other misspecified CUSUM rules. In simulation examples, we illustrate that asymptotically minimax robust CUSUM rules can provide better detection delay performance at greatly reduced computation effort compared to competing generalised likelihood ratio procedures.

Death on the front page : “Awesome things” and this thing called humanity

It has been called “the world’s worst recorded natural disaster,” and “the largest earthquake in 40 years,” galvanizing the largest global relief effort in history. For those of us involved in the discipline and/or the practice of communications, we realized that it presented a unique case study from a number of perspectives. Both the media and the public became so enraptured and enmeshed in the story of the tsunami of December 26, 2004, bringing to the fore a piece of geography and a peoples too rarely considered prior to the tragedy, that we felt compelled to examine the phenomenon. The overwhelming significance of this volume comes from its being a combination of both academic scholars and development practitioners in the field. Its poignancy becomes underscored from their wide-ranging perspectives, with 21 chapters representing some 14 different countries. Their realities provide not only credibility but also an unprecedented sensitivity to communication issues. Our approach here considers Tsunami 2004 from five communication perspectives: 1.) Interpersonal/ intercultural, 2.) Mass media, 3.) Telecommunications, 4.) Ethics, philanthropy, and development communication, and; 5.) Personal testimonies and observations. You will learn even more here about the theory and practice of disaster/crisis communication.

Achieving superior innovation-based performance outcomes in SMEs through innovation resource–capability complementarity

Firms are increasingly identifying new avenues to enhance their market position. One such effort involves the firms' ability to continuously learn. Learning has the capacity to enable firms to develop and implement more efficient and effective innovation-focused strategies, resulting in the ability to develop and deliver more products in a timelier manner. This study tests the relationship between innovation resource–capability complementarity and innovation-based performance. This study further elaborates that while innovation resource–capability complementarity drives innovation-based performance; their relationship will be enhanced via the firms' possession of superior learning capability. The findings show a significant effect of innovation resource–capability complementarity on innovation-based performance. The results also show that firms that possess superior learning capability are willing to question their operational processes and routines and make adjustments following the feedback obtained from customers and channels; thereby enhancing their abilities to develop more new products and increase their speed in delivering products to the customers.

The SEA-CALIPSO volcano imaging experiment at Montserrat : plans, campaigns at sea and on land, scientific results, and lessons learned

Since 1995 the eruption of the andesitic Soufrière Hills Volcano (SHV), Montserrat, has been studied in substantial detail. As an important contribution to this effort, the Seismic Experiment with Airgunsource-Caribbean Andesitic Lava Island Precision Seismo-geodetic Observatory (SEA-CALIPSO) experiment was devised to image the arc crust underlying Montserrat, and, if possible, the magma system at SHV using tomography and reflection seismology. Field operations were carried out in October–December 2007, with deployment of 238 seismometers on land supplementing seven volcano observatory stations, and with an array of 10 ocean-bottom seismometers deployed offshore. The RRS James Cook on NERC cruise JC19 towed a tuned airgun array plus a digital 48-channel streamer on encircling and radial tracks for 77 h about Montserrat during December 2007, firing 4414 airgun shots and yielding about 47 Gb of data. The main objecctives of the experiment were achieved. Preliminary analyses of these data published in 2010 generated images of heterogeneous high-velocity bodies representing the cores of volcanoes and subjacent intrusions, and shallow areas of low velocity on the flanks of the island that reflect volcaniclastic deposits and hydrothermal alteration. The resolution of this preliminary work did not extend beyond 5 km depth. An improved three-dimensional (3D) seismic velocity model was then obtained by inversion of 181 665 first-arrival travel times from a more-complete sampling of the dataset, yielding clear images to 7.5 km depth of a low-velocity volume that was interpreted as the magma chamber which feeds the current eruption, with an estimated volume 13 km3. Coupled thermal and seismic modelling revealed properties of the partly crystallized magma. Seismic reflection analyses aimed at imaging structures under southern Montserrat had limited success, and suggest subhorizontal layering interpreted as sills at a depth of between 6 and 19 km. Seismic reflection profiles collected offshore reveal deep fans of volcaniclastic debris and fault offsets, leading to new tectonic interpretations. This chapter presents the project goals and planning concepts, describes in detail the campaigns at sea and on land, summarizes the major results, and identifies the key lessons learned.

Audit fees and asset securitization risks

The thesis investigates “where were the auditors in asset securitizations”, a criticism of the audit profession before and after the onset of the global financial crisis (GFC). Asset securitizations increase audit complexity and audit risks, which are expected to increase audit fees. Using US bank holding company data from 2003 to 2009, this study examines the association between asset securitization risks and audit fees, and its changes during the global financial crisis. The main test is based on an ordinary least squares (OLS) model, which is adapted from the Fields et al. (2004) bank audit fee model. I employ a principal components analysis to address high correlations among asset securitization risks. Individual securitization risks are also separately tested. A suite of sensitivity tests indicate the results are robust. These include model alterations, sample variations, further controls in the tests, and correcting for the securitizer self-selection problem. A partial least squares (PLS) path modelling methodology is introduced as a separate test, which allows for high intercorrelations, self-selection correction, and sequential order hypotheses in one simultaneous model. The PLS results are consistent with the main results. The study finds significant and positive associations between securitization risks and audit fees. After the commencement of the global financial crisis in 2007, there was an increased focus on the role of audits on asset securitization risks resulting from bank failures; therefore I expect that auditors would become more sensitive to bank asset securitization risks after the commencement of the crisis. I find that auditors appear to focus on different aspects of asset securitization risks during the crisis and that auditors appear to charge a GFC premium for banks. Overall, the results support the view that auditors consider asset securitization risks and market changes, and adjust their audit effort and risk considerations accordingly.

RPAS integration within an Australian ATM system : what equipment and which airspace

The Australian Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) currently lists more than 100 separate entities or organisations which maintain a UAS Operator Certificate (UOC) [1]. Approved operations are overwhelmingly a permutation of aerial photography, surveillance, survey or spotting and predominantly, are restricted to Visual Line of Sight (VLOS) operations, below 400 feet, and not within 3 NM of an aerodrome. However, demand is increasing for a Remote Piloted Aerial System (RPAS) regulatory regime which facilitates more expansive operations, in particular unsegregated, Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) operations. Despite this demand, there is national and international apprehension regarding the necessary levels of airworthiness and operational regulation required to maintain safety and minimise the risk associated with unsegregated operations. Fundamental to addressing these legitimate concerns will be the mechanisms that underpin safe separation and collision avoidance. Whilst a large body of research has been dedicated to investigating on-board, Sense and Avoid (SAA) technology necessary to meet this challenge, this paper focuses on the contribution of the NAS to separation assurance, and how it will support, as well as complicate RPAS integration. The paper collates and presents key, but historically disparate, threads of Australian RPAS and NAS related information, and distils it with a filter focused on minimising RPAS collision risk. Our ongoing effort is motivated by the need to better understand the separation assurance contribution provided by the NAS layers, in the first instance, and subsequently employ this information to identify scenarios where the coincident collision risk is demonstrably low, providing legitimate substantiation for concessions on equipage and airworthiness standards.

Clinicopathological relevance of BRAF mutations in human cancer

BRAF represents one of the most frequently mutated protein kinase genes in human tumours. The mutation is commonly tested in pathology practice. BRAF mutation is seen in melanoma, papillary thyroid carcinoma (including papillary thyroid carcinoma arising from ovarian teratoma), ovarian serous tumours, colorectal carcinoma, gliomas, hepatobiliary carcinomas and hairy cell leukaemia. In these cancers, various genetic aberrations of the BRAF proto-oncogene, such as different point mutations and chromosomal rearrangements, have been reported. The most common mutation, BRAF V600E, can be detected by DNA sequencing and immunohistochemistry on formalin fixed, paraffin embedded tumour tissue. Detection of BRAF V600E mutation has the potential for clinical use as a diagnostic and prognostic marker. In addition, a great deal of research effort has been spent in strategies inhibiting its activity. Indeed, recent clinical trials involving BRAF selective inhibitors exhibited promising response rates in metastatic melanoma patients. Clinical trials are underway for other cancers. However, cutaneous side effects of treatment have been reported and therapeutic response to cancer is short-lived due to the emergence of several resistance mechanisms. In this review, we give an update on the clinical pathological relevance of BRAF mutation in cancer. It is hoped that the review will enhance the direction of future research and assist in more effective use of the knowledge of BRAF mutation in clinical practice.

Improved energy harvesting capability of poly(vinylidene fluoride) films modified by reduced graphene oxide

Piezoelectric energy harvesters can be used to convert ambient energy into electrical energy and power small autonomous devices. In recent years, massive effort has been made to improve the energy harvesting ability in piezoelectric materials. In this study, reduced graphene oxide was added into poly(vinylidene fluoride) to fabricate the piezoelectric nanocomposite films. Open-circuit voltage and electrical power harvesting experiments showed remarkable enhancement in the piezoelectricity of the fabricated poly(vinylidene fluoride)/reduced graphene oxide nanocomposite, especially at an optimal reduced graphene oxide content of 0.05 wt%. Compared to pristine poly(vinylidene fluoride) films, the open-circuit voltage, the density of harvested power of alternating current, and direct current of the poly(vinylidene fluoride)/reduced graphene oxide nanocomposite films increased by 105%, 153%, and 233%, respectively, indicating a great potential for a broad range of applications.

Recent progress in fluorescent blue light-emitting materials

Organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs), as an emerging technology for display and solid state lighting application, have many advantages including self-emission, lightweight, flexibility, low driving voltage, low power consumption, and low production cost. With the advancement of light emitting materials development and device architecture optimization, mobile phones and televisions based on OLED technology are already in the market. However, to obtain efficient, stable and pure blue emission than producing lower-energy colors is still one of the important subjects of these challenges. Full color and pure white light can be achieved only having stable blue emitting materials. To address this issue, significant effort has been devoted to develop novel blue light emitting materials in the past decade aiming at further improving device efficiency, color quality of emission light, and device lifetime. This review focuses on recent efforts of synthesis and device performance of small molecules, oligomers and polymers for blue emission of organic electroluminescent devices.

Electron-accepting conjugated materials based on 2-Vinyl-4,5- dicyanoimidazoles for application in organic electronics

We report the Heck coupling of 2-vinyl-4,5-dicyanoimidazole (vinazene) with selected di- and trihalo aromatics in an effort to prepare linear and branched electron-accepting conjugated materials for application in organic electronics. By selecting the suitable halo-aromatic moiety, it is possible to tune the HOMO - LUMO energy levels, absorption, and emission properties for a specific application. In this regard, materials with strong photoluminescence from blue → green → red are reported that may have potential application in organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs). Furthermore, derivatives with strong absorption in the visible spectrum, coupled with favorable HOMO-LUMO levels, have been used to prepare promising organic photovoltaic devices (OPVs) when combined with commercially available semiconducting donor polymers.

Priority threat management of invasive plant species in the Lake Eyre Basin

This project is led by scientists in conservation decision appraisal and brings together a group of experts working across the Lake Eyre Basin (LEB). The LEB covers a sixth of Australia, with an array of globally significant natural values that are threatened by invasive plants, among other things. Managers at various levels are investing in attempts to control, contain and eradicate these invasive plant species, under severe time and resources limitations. To date there has been no basin-wide assessment of which weed management strategies and locations provide the best investments for maximising outcomes for biodiversity per unit cost. Further, there has been no assessment of the extent of ecosystem intactness that may be lost without effective invasive plant species management strategies. Given that there are insufficient resources to manage all invasive plant species everywhere, this information has the potential to improve current investment decisions. Here, we provide a prioritisation of invasive plant management strategies in the LEB. Prioritisation was based on cost-effectiveness for biodiversity benefits. We identify the key invasive plant species to target to protect ecosystem intactness across the bioregions of the LEB, the level of investment required and the likely reduction in invasive species dominance gained per dollar spent on each strategy. Our focus is on strategies that are technically and socially feasible and reduce the likelihood that high impact invasive plant species will dominate native ecosystems, and therefore change their form and function. The outputs of this work are designed to help guide decision-making and further planning and investment in weed management for the Basin. Experts in weed management, policy-making, community engagement, biodiversity and natural values of the Basin, attended a workshop and agreed upon 12 strategies to manage invasive plants. The strategies focused primarily on 10 weeds which were considered to have a high potential for broad, significant impacts on natural ecosystems in the next 50 years and for which feasible management strategies could be defined. Each strategy consisted of one or more supporting actions, many of which were spatially linked to IBRA (Interim Biogeographical Regionalisation of Australia) bioregions. The first strategy was an over-arching recommendation for improved mapping, information sharing, education and extension efforts in order to facilitate the more specific weed management strategies. The 10 more specific weed management strategies targeted the control and/or eradication of the following high-impact exotic plants: mesquite, parkinsonia, rubber vine, bellyache bush, cacti, mother of millions, chinee apple, athel pine and prickly acacia, as well as a separate strategy for eradicating all invasive plants from one key threatened ecological community, the GAB (Great Artesian Basin dependant) mound springs. Experts estimated the expected biodiversity benefit of each strategy as the reduction in area that an invasive plant species is likely to dominate in over a 50-year period, where dominance was defined as more than 30% coverage at a site. Costs were estimated in present day terms over 50 years largely during follow up discussions post workshop. Cost-effectiveness was then calculated for each strategy in each bioregion by dividing the average expected benefit by the average annual costs. Overall, the total cost of managing 12 invasive plant strategies over the next 50 years was estimated at $1.7 billion. It was estimated that implementation of these strategies would result in a reduction of invasive plant dominance by 17 million ha (a potential 32% reduction), roughly 14% of the LEB. If only targeting Weeds of National Significance (WONS), the total cost was estimated to be $113 million over the next 50 years. Over the next 50 years, $2.3 million was estimated to eradicate all invasive plant species from the Great Artesian Basin Mound Springs threatened ecological community. Prevention and awareness programs were another key strategy targeted across the Basin and estimated at $17.5 million in total over 50 years. The cost of controlling, eradicating and containing buffel grass were the most expensive, over $1.5 billion over 50 years; this strategy was estimated to result in a reduction in buffel grass dominance of a million ha in areas where this species is identified as an environmental problem. Buffel grass has been deliberately planted across the Basin for pasture production and is by far the most widely distributed exotic species. Its management is contentious, having economic value to many graziers while posing serious threats to biodiversity and sites of high cultural and conservation interest. The strategy for containing and locally eradicating buffel grass was a challenge to cost based on expert knowledge, possibly because of the dual nature of this species as a valued pastoral grass and environmental weed. Based on our conversations with experts, it appears that control and eradication programs for this species, in conservation areas, are growing rapidly and that information on the most cost-effective strategies for this species will continue to develop over time. The top five most cost-effective strategies for the entire LEB were for the management of: 1) parkinsonia, 2) chinee apple, 3) mesquite, 4) rubber vine and 5) bellyache bush. Chinee apple and mother of millions are not WONS and have comparatively small populations within the semi-arid bioregions of Queensland. Experts felt that there was an opportunity to eradicate these species before they had the chance to develop into high-impact species within the LEB. Prickly acacia was estimated to have one of the highest benefits, but the costs of this strategy were high, therefore it was ranked 7th overall. The buffel grass strategy was ranked the lowest (10th) in terms of cost effectiveness. The top five most cost-effective strategies within and across the bioregions were the management of: 1) parkinsonia in the Channel Country, 2) parkinsonia in the Desert Uplands, 3) mesquite in the Mitchell Grass Downs, 4) parkinsonia in the Mitchell Grass Downs, and 5) mother of millions in the Desert Uplands. Although actions for several invasive plant species like parkinsonia and prickly acacia were concentrated in the Queensland part of the LEB, the actions involved investing in containment zones to prevent the spread of these species into other states. In the NT and SA bioregions of the LEB, the management of athel pine, parkinsonia and cacti were the main strategies. While outside the scientific research goals of study, this work highlighted a number of important incidental findings that led us to make the following recommendations for future research and implementation of weed management in the Basin: • Ongoing stakeholder engagement, extension and participation is required to ensure this prioritisation effort has a positive impact in affecting on-ground decision making and planning. • Short term funding for weed management was identified as a major reason for failure of current efforts, hence future funding needs to be secure and ongoing. • Improved mapping and information sharing is essential to implement effective weed management. • Due to uncertainties in the outcomes and impacts of management options, strategies should be implemented as part of an adaptive management program. The information provided in this report can be used to guide investment for controlling high-impact invasive plant species for the benefits of biodiversity conservation. We do not present a final prioritisation of invasive plant strategies for the LEB, and we have not addressed the cultural, socio-economic or spatial components necessary for an implementation plan. Cost-effectiveness depends on the objectives used; in our case we used the intactness of ecosystems as a surrogate for expected biodiversity benefits, measured by the extent that each invasive plant species is likely to dominate in a bioregion. When other relevant factors for implementation are considered the priorities may change and some actions may not be appropriate in some locations. We present the costs, ecological benefits and cost-effectiveness of preventing, containing, reducing and eradicating the dominance of high impact invasive plants through realistic management actions over the next 50 years. In doing so, we are able to estimate the size of the weed management problem in the LEB and provide expert-based estimates of the likely outcomes and benefits of implementing weed management strategies. The priorities resulting from this work provide a prospectus for guiding further investment in management and in improving information availability.

Sewer performance reporting : factors that influence blockages

Managing sewer blockages represents a significant operational challenge for water utilities. In Australia, company-level blockage rates are used to compare the effectiveness of the management strategies of different utilities. Anecdotal evidence suggests this may not be a fair basis for comparison because blockages are influenced by a range of factors beyond management control and that vary from company to company. This issue was investigated as part of a broader research effort on sewer blockage management undertaken in conjunction with the Water Services Association of Australia (WSAA) and its members. A Web-based survey was used to collate expert opinion on factors that influence blockage rate. The identified factors were then investigated in an exploratory analysis of blockage-related data provided by two participating utilities, supported by literature reviews. The results indicate that blockage rate is influenced by a range of factors, including asset attributes, climatic conditions, water consumption, and soil type. Since these factors vary from utility to utility, this research supports the assertion that company-level blockage rate is not in itself an appropriate metric for comparing management effectiveness.

Mandatory reporting laws

As part of the effort to protect children from significant abuse and neglect, each state and territory in Australia has enacted legislation commonly known as "mandatory reporting laws". There is much confusion about the nature and effects of these laws, both generally and within each jurisdiction. Accordingly, the main aim of this chapter is to review and explain the legislative principles across Australia. In doing so, the chapter will identify differences between the state and territory laws and will situate the laws as part of a system of responses to the whole spectrum of child abuse and neglect. We will also highlight the need for effective reporter training and public awareness, especially given the tension between the widely perceived need for a community response to child abuse and neglect and the simultaneous concern to avoid unnecessary reporting of innocuous events and situations.

Environmental performance and returns to pollution abatement in China

Because of China's extremely rapid economic growth, the scale and seriousness of environmental problems is no longer in doubt. Whether pollution abatement technologies are utilized more efficiently is crucial in the analysis of environmental management in China. This study analyzes how the performance of environmental management has changed over time using province level data for 1992-2003. Mixed results for environmental performance are shown using nonparametric estimation technique. We find that environmental performance index, abatement effort, and increasing returns to pollution abatement play important roles in determining the pollution level over the period of the study.

Coping strategies used by ballet dancers: effects of individual differences in competitive trait anxiety

The world of classical ballet exerts considerable physical and psychological stress upon those who participate, and yet the process of coping with such stressors is not well understood. Relationships between coping strategies and competitive trait anxiety were investigated among 104 classical dancers (81 females and 23 males) from three professional ballet companies, two private dance schools, and two full-time, university dance courses in Australia. Coping strategies were assessed using the Modified COPE scale (MCOPE: Crocker & Graham, 1995), a 48-item measure of 12 dimensions of coping. Competitive trait anxiety was assessed using the Sport Anxiety Scale (SAS: Smith, Smoll, & Schutz, 1990), a 21-item measure of three anxiety dimensions. Trait anxiety scores, in particular for Somatic Anxiety and Worry, predicted seven of the 12 coping strategies (Suppression of Competing Activities: R2 = 27.1%; Venting of Emotions: R2 = 23.2%; Active Coping: R2 = 14.3%; Denial: R2 = 17.7%; Self-Blame: R2 = 35.7%; Effort: R2 = 16.6%; Wishful Thinking: R2 = 42.3%). High trait anxious dancers reported more frequent use of all categories of coping strategies, some of which are considered to be maladaptive. No effects of gender or status (professional versus students) were identified. Results emphasize the need for the effectiveness of specific coping strategies to be considered during the process of preparing young classical dancers for a career in professional ballet.