Evidence-based recommendations for the diagnosis of ankylosing spondylitis: Results from the Australian 3E initiative in rheumatology

• As part of the 3E program, we conducted a systematic literature review and gathered consensus from 23 practising Australian rheumatologists to develop guidelines for early identification of ankylosing spondylitis and specialist referral. • In three rounds of break-out sessions followed by discussion and voting, the specialist panel addressed three questions related to diagnosis of ankylosing spondylitis: In individuals with back pain, what are the early clinical features that suggest ankylosing spondylitis? How useful is imaging in identifying early ankylosing spondylitis? Based on which clinical features should a general practitioner refer a patient to a rheumatologist for further evaluation? • The panel agreed on six recommendations related to the three questions: 1a. Early clinical features to suggest ankylosing spondylitis include inflammatory back pain and age at symptom onset < 45 years. 1b. The absence of symptomatic response to an appropriate course of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs makes the diagnosis of ankylosing spondylitis less likely. 1c. Raised inflammatory markers are supportive, but their absence does not rule out the diagnosis of ankylosing spondylitis. 2a. Despite low sensitivity to detect changes of early ankylosing spondylitis, plain radiographs of the pelvis and spine are appropriate initial imaging techniques. 2b. Magnetic resonance imaging is a useful imaging modality for detecting early changes of ankylosing spondylitis. 3. Individuals with inflammatory back pain should be referred to a rheumatologist for further evaluation. • Effective dissemination and implementation of these recommendations are important to standardise the approach to early diagnosis of ankylosing spondylitis.

Evidence-based recommendations for the monitoring and treatment of ankylosing spondylitis: Results from the Australian 3E initiative in rheumatology

Aim: To develop a set of Australian recommendations for the monitoring and treatment of ankylosing spondylitis (AS) through systematic literature review combined with the opinion of practicing rheumatologists. Methods: A set of eight questions, four in each domain of monitoring and treatment, were formulated by voting and the Delphi method. The results of a systematic literature review addressing each question were presented to the 23 participants of the Australian 3E meeting. All participants were clinical rheumatologists experienced in the daily management of AS. Results: After three rounds of breakout sessions to discuss the findings of the literature review, a set of recommendations was finalized after discussion and voting. The category of evidence and strength of recommendation were determined for each proposal. The level of agreement among participants was excellent (mean 84%, range 64-100%). Conclusions: The 12 recommendations developed from evidence and expert opinion provide guidance for the daily management of AS patients. For most recommendations, we found a paucity of supportive evidence in the literature highlighting the need for additional clinical studies.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refi nements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2∙4 billion and 1∙6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537∙6 million in 1990 to 764∙8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114∙87 per 1000 people to 110∙31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world’s population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to nonfatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.

Association scan of 14,500 nonsynonymous SNPs in four diseases identifies autoimmunity variants

We have genotyped 14,436 nonsynonymous SNPs (nsSNPs) and 897 major histocompatibility complex (MHC) tag SNPs from 1,000 independent cases of ankylosing spondylitis (AS), autoimmune thyroid disease (AITD), multiple sclerosis (MS) and breast cancer (BC). Comparing these data against a common control dataset derived from 1,500 randomly selected healthy British individuals, we report initial association and independent replication in a North American sample of two new loci related to ankylosing spondylitis, ARTS1 and IL23R, and confirmation of the previously reported association of AITD with TSHR and FCRL3. These findings, enabled in part by increased statistical power resulting from the expansion of the control reference group to include individuals from the other disease groups, highlight notable new possibilities for autoimmune regulation and suggest that IL23R may be a common susceptibility factor for the major 'seronegative' diseases.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Genetic control of bone density and turnover: Role of the collagen 1α1, estrogen receptor, and vitamin D receptor genes

Genetic factors are known to influence both the peak bone mass and probably the rate of change in bone density. A range of regulatory and structural genes has been proposed to be involved including collagen 1α1 (COL1A1), the estrogen receptor (ER), and the vitamin D receptor (VDR), but the actual genes involved are uncertain. We therefore studied the role of the COL1A1 and VDR loci in control of bone density by linkage in 45 dizygotic twin pairs and 29 nuclear families comprising 120 individuals. The influences on bone density of polymorphisms of COL1A1, VDR, and ER were studied by association both cross-sectionally and longitudinally in 193 elderly postmenopausal women (average age, 69 years) over a mean follow-up time of 6.3 years. Weak linkage of the COL1A1 locus with bone density was observed in both twins and families (p = 0.02 in both data sets), confirming previous observations of linkage of this locus with bone density. Association between the MscI polymorphism of COL1A1 and rate of lumbar spine bone loss was observed with significant gene-environment interaction related to dietary calcium intake (p = 0.0006). In the lowest tertile of dietary calcium intake, carriers of "s" alleles lost more bone than "SS" homozygotes (p = 0.01), whereas the opposite was observed in the highest dietary calcium intake (p = 0.003). Association also was observed between rate of bone loss at both the femoral neck and the lumbar spine and the TaqI VDR polymorphism (p = 0.03). This association was strongest in those in the lowest tertile of calcium intake, also suggesting the presence of gene-environment interaction involving dietary calcium and VDR, influencing bone turnover. No significant association was observed between the PvuII ER polymorphism alone or in combination with VDR or COL1A1 genotypes, with either bone density or its rate of change. These data support the involvement of COL1A1 in determination of bone density and the interaction of both COL1A1 and VDR with calcium intake in regulation of change of bone density over time.

The ultimate edge: The case for planning media for sustaining space communities

Governments and intergovernmental organisations have long recognised that space communities – the ultimate ‘settlements at the edge’ – will exist one day and have based their first plans for these on another region ‘at the edge’, the Antarctic. United States President Eisenhower proposed to the United Nations in 1960 that the principles of the Antarctic Treaty be applied to outer space and celestial bodies (State Department, n.d.). Three years later the UN adopted the Declaration of Legal Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space and in 1967 that became the Outer Space Treaty. According to the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs, ‘the Treaty was opened for signature by the three depository Governments (the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States of America) in January 1967, and it entered into force in October 1967’ (Office for Outer Space Affairs, n.d). The status of the treaty (at time of writing) was 89 signatories and 102 parties (Office for Disarmament Affairs, n.d.). Other related instruments include the Rescue Agreement, the Liability Convention, the Registration Convention and the Moon Agreement (Office for Outer Space Affairs, n.d.-a). Jumping to the present, a newsagency reported in July 2014 (Reuters, 2014) that the British Government had shortlisted eight aerodromes in its search for a potential base for the UK’s first spaceplane flights which Ministers want to happen by 2018 (UK Space Agency, 2014). The United States already has a spaceport, in New Mexico (Cokley, Rankin, Heinrich, & McAuliffe, 2013)...

Risk analysis of prostate cancer in PRACTICAL, a multinational consortium, using 25 known prostate cancer susceptibility loci

Background Genome-wide association studies have identified multiple genetic variants associated with prostate cancer risk which explain a substantial proportion of familial relative risk. These variants can be used to stratify individuals by their risk of prostate cancer. Methods We genotyped 25 prostate cancer susceptibility loci in 40,414 individuals and derived a polygenic risk score (PRS).We estimated empirical odds ratios (OR) for prostate cancer associated with different risk strata defined by PRS and derived agespecific absolute risks of developing prostate cancer by PRS stratum and family history. Results The prostate cancer risk for men in the top 1% of the PRS distribution was 30.6 (95% CI, 16.4-57.3) fold compared with men in the bottom 1%, and 4.2 (95% CI, 3.2-5.5) fold compared with the median risk. The absolute risk of prostate cancer by age of 85 years was 65.8% for a man with family history in the top 1% of the PRS distribution, compared with 3.7% for a man in the bottom 1%. The PRS was only weakly correlated with serum PSA level (correlation = 0.09). Conclusions Risk profiling can identify men at substantially increased or reduced risk of prostate cancer. The effect size, measured by OR per unit PRS, was higher in men at younger ages and in men with family history of prostate cancer. Incorporating additional newly identified loci into a PRS should improve the predictive value of risk profiles. Impact:We demonstrate that the risk profiling based on SNPs can identify men at substantially increased or reduced risk that could have useful implications for targeted prevention and screening programs.

Support services for higher degree research students: A survey of three Australian universities

A survey was conducted across three Australian universities to identify the types and format of support services available for higher degree research (HDR, or MA and Ph.D.) students. The services were classified with regards to availability, location and accessibility. A comparative tool was developed to help institutions categorise their services in terms of academic, administrative, social and settlement, language and miscellaneous (other) supports. All three universities showed similarities in the type of academic support services offered, while differing in social and settlement and language support services in terms of the location and the level of accessibility of these services. The study also examined the specific support services available for culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) students. The three universities differed in their emphases in catering to CALD needs, with their allocation of resources reflecting these differences. The organisation of these services within the universities was further assessed to determine possible factors that may influence the effective delivery of these services, by considering HDR and CALD student specific issues. The findings and tools developed by this study may be useful to HDR supervisors and university administrators in identifying key support services to better improve outcomes for the HDR students and universities.

Crash risk perception of sleepy driving and its comparisons with drink driving and speeding: Which behavior is perceived as the riskiest?

- Objective Driver sleepiness is a major crash risk factor, but may be under-recognized as a risky driving behavior. Sleepy driving is usually rated as less of a road safety issue than more well-known risky driving behaviors, such as drink driving and speeding. The objective of this study was to compare perception of crash risk of sleepy driving, drink driving, and speeding. - Methods In total, 300 Australian drivers completed a questionnaire that assessed crash risk perceptions for sleepy driving, drink driving, and speeding. Additionally, the participants perception of crash risk was assessed for five different contextual scenarios that included different levels of sleepiness (low, high), driving duration (short, long), and time of day/circadian influences (afternoon, night-time) of driving. - Results The analysis confirmed that sleepy driving was considered a risky driving behavior, but not as risky as high levels of speeding (p < .05). Yet, the risk of crashing at 4 am was considered as equally risky as low levels of speeding (10 km over the limit). The comparisons of the contextual scenarios revealed driving scenarios that would arguably be perceived as quite risky due to time of day/circadian influences were not reported as high risk. - Conclusions The results suggest a lack of awareness or appreciation of circadian rhythm functioning, particularly the descending phase of circadian rhythm that promotes increased sleepiness in the afternoon and during the early hours of the morning. Yet, the results suggested an appreciation of the danger associated with long distance driving and driver sleepiness. Further efforts are required to improve the community’s awareness of the impairing effects from sleepiness and in particular, knowledge regarding the human circadian rhythm and the increased sleep propensity during the circadian nadir.

Image-based midsole insert design and the material effects on heel plantar pressure distribution during simulated walking loads

The primary objective of this paper is to study the use of medical image-based finite element (FE) modelling in subjectspecific midsole design and optimisation for heel pressure reduction using a midsole plug under the calcaneus area (UCA). Plugs with different relative dimensions to the size of the calcaneus of the subject have been incorporated in the heel region of the midsole. The FE foot model was validated by comparing the numerically predicted plantar pressure with biomechanical tests conducted on the same subject. For each UCA midsole plug design, the effect of material properties and plug thicknesses on the plantar pressure distribution and peak pressure level during the heel strike phase of normal walking was systematically studied. The results showed that the UCA midsole insert could effectively modify the pressure distribution, and its effect is directly associated with the ratio of the plug dimension to the size of the calcaneus bone of the subject. A medium hardness plug with a size of 95% of the calcaneus has achieved the best performance for relieving the peak pressure in comparison with the pressure level for a solid midsole without a plug, whereas a smaller plug with a size of 65% of the calcaneus insert with a very soft material showed minimum beneficial effect for the pressure relief.

Robust estimation using the Huber function with a data-dependent tuning constant

Robust estimation often relies on a dispersion function that is more slowly varying at large values than the square function. However, the choice of tuning constant in dispersion functions may impact the estimation efficiency to a great extent. For a given family of dispersion functions such as the Huber family, we suggest obtaining the "best" tuning constant from the data so that the asymptotic efficiency is maximized. This data-driven approach can automatically adjust the value of the tuning constant to provide the necessary resistance against outliers. Simulation studies show that substantial efficiency can be gained by this data-dependent approach compared with the traditional approach in which the tuning constant is fixed. We briefly illustrate the proposed method using two datasets.

Inverse Correlation between Vitamin D and C-Reactive Protein in Newborns

Some studies suggested that adequate vitamin D might reduce inflammation in adults. However, little is known about this association in early life. We aimed to determine the relationship between cord blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and C-reactive protein (CRP) in neonates. Cord blood levels of 25(OH)D and CRP were measured in 1491 neonates in Hefei, China. Potential confounders including maternal sociodemographic characteristics, perinatal health status, lifestyle, and birth outcomes were prospectively collected. The average values of cord blood 25(OH)D and CRP were 39.43 nmol/L (SD = 20.35) and 6.71 mg/L (SD = 3.07), respectively. Stratified by 25(OH)D levels, per 10 nmol/L increase in 25(OH)D, CRP decreased by 1.42 mg/L (95% CI: 0.90, 1.95) among neonates with 25(OH)D <25.0 nmol/L, and decreased by 0.49 mg/L (95% CI: 0.17, 0.80) among neonates with 25(OH)D between 25.0 nmol/L and 49.9 nmol/L, after adjusting for potential confounders. However, no significant association between 25(OH)D and CRP was observed among neonates with 25(OH)D ≥50 nmol/L. Cord blood 25(OH)D and CRP levels showed a significant seasonal trend with lower 25(OH)D and higher CRP during winter-spring than summer-autumn. Stratified by season, a significant linear association of 25(OH)D with CRP was observed in neonates born in winter-spring (adjusted β = −0.11, 95% CI: −0.13, −0.10), but not summer-autumn. Among neonates born in winter-spring, neonates with 25(OH)D <25 nmol/L had higher risk of CRP ≥10 mg/L (adjusted OR = 3.06, 95% CI: 2.00, 4.69), compared to neonates with 25(OH)D ≥25 nmol/L. Neonates with vitamin D deficiency had higher risk of exposure to elevated inflammation at birth.

Weight bearing physical activity for performance and bone health in prepubertal girls

This study assessed the status of bone and cardiovascular health in young, prepubertal females (aged 9 to 11 years) during a school based intervention program involving weight bearing physical activity. A study of 10 months duration was conducted in four primary schools in the Melbourne suburbs. It involved a physical activity group (n=38) and an aged-matched control group (n=33). Baseline data including pubertal status, health-related fitness, bone mass and body composition were obtained pre and post the intervention programme. All children had their bone mineral density monitored. Bone mineral density and body composition measurements were performed by DXA using the Hologic QDR 2000 bone densitometer. At the completion of the program the activity group had accrued significantly greater bone mass at total body, lumbar spine, leg and femoral neck when expressed as BMC or BMD.

Guaiac versus immunochemical tests: Faecal occult blood test screening for colorectal cancer in a rural community

Objective: To describe patient participation and clinical performance in a colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program utilising faecal occult blood test (FOBT). Methods: A community-based intervention was conducted in a small, rural community in north Queensland, 2000/01. One of two FOBT kits – guaiac (Hemoccult-ll) or immunochemical (Inform) – was assigned by general practice and mailed to participants (3,358 patients aged 50–74 years listed with the local practices). Results: Overall participation in FOBT screening was 36.3%. Participation was higher with the immunochemical kit than the guaiac kit (OR=1.9, 95% Cl 1.6-2.2). Women were more likely to comply with testing than men (OR=1.4, 95% Cl 1.2-1.7), and people in their 60s were less likely to participate than those 70–74 years (OR=0.8, 95% Cl 0.6-0.9). The positivity rate was higher for the immunochemical (9.5%) than the guaiac (3.9%) test (χ2=9.2, p=0.002), with positive predictive values for cancer or adenoma of advanced pathology of 37.8% (95% Cl 28.1–48.6) for !nform and 40.0% (95% Cl 16.8–68.7) for Hemoccult-ll. Colonoscopy follow-up was 94.8% with a medical complication rate of 2–3%. Conclusions: An immunochemical FOBT enhanced participation. Higher positivity rates for this kit did not translate into higher false-positive rates, and both test types resulted in a high yield of neoplasia. Implications: In addition to type of FOBT, the ultimate success of a population-based screening program for CRC using FOBT will depend on appropriate education of health professionals and the public as well as significant investment in medical infrastructure for colonoscopy follow-up.