411 resultados para best linear unbiased predictor
Resumo:
Frequency Domain Spectroscopy (FDS) is one of the major techniques used for determining the condition of the cellulose based paper and pressboard components in large oil/paper insulated power transformers. This technique typically makes use of a sinusoidal voltage source swept from 0.1 mHz to 1 kHz. The excitation test voltage source used must meet certain characteristics, such as high output voltage, high fidelity, low noise and low harmonic content. The amplifier used; in the test voltage source; must be able to drive highly capacitive loads. This paper proposes that a switch-mode assisted linear amplifier (SMALA) can be used in the test voltage source to meet these criteria. A three level SMALA prototype amplifier was built to experimentally demonstrate the effectiveness of this proposal. The developed SMALA prototype shows no discernable harmonic distortion in the output voltage waveform, or the need for output filters, and is therefore seen as a preferable option to pulse width modulated digital amplifiers. The lack of harmonic distortion and high frequency switching noise in the output voltage of this SMALA prototype demonstrates its feasibility for applications in FDS, particularly on highly capacitive test objects such as transformer insulation systems.
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We describe a design and fabrication method to enable simpler manufacturing of more efficient organic solar cell modules using a modified flat panel deposition technique. Many mini-cell pixels are individually connected to each other in parallel forming a macro-scale solar cell array. The pixel size of each array is optimized through experimentation to maximize the efficiency of the whole array. We demonstrate that integrated organic solar cell modules with a scalable current output can be fabricated in this fashion and can also be connected in series to generate a scalable voltage output.
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Accurate patient positioning is vital for improved clinical outcomes for cancer treatments using radiotherapy. This project has developed Mega Voltage Cone Beam CT using a standard medical linear accelerator to allow 3D imaging of the patient position at treatment time with no additional hardware required. Providing 3D imaging functionality at no further cost allows enhanced patient position verification on older linear accelerators and in developing countries where access to new technology is limited.
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Purpose: Physical activity improves the health outcomes of colorectal cancer (CRC) survivors, yet few are exercising at levels known to yield health benefits. Baseline demographic, clinical, behavioral, and psychosocial predictors of physical activity at 12 months were investigated in CRC survivors. Methods: Participants were CRC survivors (n = 410) who completed a 12-month multiple health behavior change intervention trial (CanChange). The outcome variable was 12 month sufficient physical activity (≥150 min of moderate–vigorous physical activity/week). Baseline predictors included demographics and clinical variables, health behaviors, and psychosocial variables. Results: Multivariate linear regression revealed that baseline sufficient physical activity (p < 0.001), unemployment (p = 0.004), private health insurance (p = 0.040), higher cancer-specific quality of life (p = 0.031) and higher post-traumatic growth (p = 0.008) were independent predictors of sufficient physical activity at 12 months. The model explained 28.6 % of the variance. Conclusions: Assessment of demographics, health behaviors, and psychosocial functioning following a diagnosis of CRC may help to develop effective physical activity programs.
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This study implemented linear and nonlinear methods of measuring variability to determine differences in stability of two groups of skilled (n = 10) and unskilled (n = 10) participants performing 3m forward/backward shuttle agility drill. We also determined whether stability measures differed between the forward and backward segments of the drill. Finally, we sought to investigate whether local dynamic stability, measured using largest finite-time Lyapunov exponents, changed from distal to proximal lower extremity segments. Three-dimensional coordinates of five lower extremity markers data were recorded. Results revealed that the Lyapunov exponents were lower (P < 0.05) for skilled participants at all joint markers indicative of higher levels of local dynamic stability. Additionally, stability of motion did not differ between forward and backward segments of the drill (P > 0.05), signifying that almost the same control strategy was used in forward and backward directions by all participants, regardless of skill level. Furthermore, local dynamic stability increased from distal to proximal joints (P < 0.05) indicating that stability of proximal segments are prioritized by the neuromuscular control system. Finally, skilled participants displayed greater foot placement standard deviation values (P < 0.05), indicative of adaptation to task constraints. The results of this study provide new methods for sport scientists, coaches to characterize stability in agility drill performance.
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A global framework for linear stability analyses of traffic models, based on the dispersion relation root locus method, is presented and is applied taking the example of a broad class of car-following (CF) models. This approach is able to analyse all aspects of the dynamics: long waves and short wave behaviours, phase velocities and stability features. The methodology is applied to investigate the potential benefits of connected vehicles, i.e. V2V communication enabling a vehicle to send and receive information to and from surrounding vehicles. We choose to focus on the design of the coefficients of cooperation which weights the information from downstream vehicles. The coefficients tuning is performed and different ways of implementing an efficient cooperative strategy are discussed. Hence, this paper brings design methods in order to obtain robust stability of traffic models, with application on cooperative CF models
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A combined data matrix consisting of high performance liquid chromatography–diode array detector (HPLC–DAD) and inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) measurements of samples from the plant roots of the Cortex moutan (CM), produced much better classification and prediction results in comparison with those obtained from either of the individual data sets. The HPLC peaks (organic components) of the CM samples, and the ICP-MS measurements (trace metal elements) were investigated with the use of principal component analysis (PCA) and the linear discriminant analysis (LDA) methods of data analysis; essentially, qualitative results suggested that discrimination of the CM samples from three different provinces was possible with the combined matrix producing best results. Another three methods, K-nearest neighbor (KNN), back-propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) and least squares support vector machines (LS-SVM) were applied for the classification and prediction of the samples. Again, the combined data matrix analyzed by the KNN method produced best results (100% correct; prediction set data). Additionally, multiple linear regression (MLR) was utilized to explore any relationship between the organic constituents and the metal elements of the CM samples; the extracted linear regression equations showed that the essential metals as well as some metallic pollutants were related to the organic compounds on the basis of their concentrations
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Objectives To investigate whether a sudden temperature change between neighboring days has significant impact on mortality. Methods A Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear models was used to estimate the association of temperature change between neighboring days with mortality in a subtropical Chinese city during 2008–2012. Temperature change was calculated as the current day’s temperature minus the previous day’s temperature. Results A significant effect of temperature change between neighboring days on mortality was observed. Temperature increase was significantly associated with elevated mortality from non-accidental and cardiovascular diseases, while temperature decrease had a protective effect on non-accidental mortality and cardiovascular mortality. Males and people aged 65 years or older appeared to be more vulnerable to the impact of temperature change. Conclusions Temperature increase between neighboring days has a significant adverse impact on mortality. Further health mitigation strategies as a response to climate change should take into account temperature variation between neighboring days.
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A novel combined near- and mid-infrared (NIR and MIR) spectroscopic method has been researched and developed for the analysis of complex substances such as the Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM), Illicium verum Hook. F. (IVHF), and its noxious adulterant, Iuicium lanceolatum A.C. Smith (ILACS). Three types of spectral matrix were submitted for classification with the use of the linear discriminant analysis (LDA) method. The data were pretreated with either the successive projections algorithm (SPA) or the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) method. The SPA method performed somewhat better, principally because it required less spectral features for its pretreatment model. Thus, NIR or MIR matrix as well as the combined NIR/MIR one, were pretreated by the SPA method, and then analysed by LDA. This approach enabled the prediction and classification of the IVHF, ILACS and mixed samples. The MIR spectral data produced somewhat better classification rates than the NIR data. However, the best results were obtained from the combined NIR/MIR data matrix with 95–100% correct classifications for calibration, validation and prediction. Principal component analysis (PCA) of the three types of spectral data supported the results obtained with the LDA classification method.
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Aim Determining how ecological processes vary across space is a major focus in ecology. Current methods that investigate such effects remain constrained by important limiting assumptions. Here we provide an extension to geographically weighted regression in which local regression and spatial weighting are used in combination. This method can be used to investigate non-stationarity and spatial-scale effects using any regression technique that can accommodate uneven weighting of observations, including machine learning. Innovation We extend the use of spatial weights to generalized linear models and boosted regression trees by using simulated data for which the results are known, and compare these local approaches with existing alternatives such as geographically weighted regression (GWR). The spatial weighting procedure (1) explained up to 80% deviance in simulated species richness, (2) optimized the normal distribution of model residuals when applied to generalized linear models versus GWR, and (3) detected nonlinear relationships and interactions between response variables and their predictors when applied to boosted regression trees. Predictor ranking changed with spatial scale, highlighting the scales at which different species–environment relationships need to be considered. Main conclusions GWR is useful for investigating spatially varying species–environment relationships. However, the use of local weights implemented in alternative modelling techniques can help detect nonlinear relationships and high-order interactions that were previously unassessed. Therefore, this method not only informs us how location and scale influence our perception of patterns and processes, it also offers a way to deal with different ecological interpretations that can emerge as different areas of spatial influence are considered during model fitting.
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Change point estimation is recognized as an essential tool of root cause analyses within quality control programs as it enables clinical experts to search for potential causes of change in hospital outcomes more effectively. In this paper, we consider estimation of the time when a linear trend disturbance has occurred in survival time following an in-control clinical intervention in the presence of variable patient mix. To model the process and change point, a linear trend in the survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery is formulated using hierarchical models in a Bayesian framework. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including the location and the slope size of the trend and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time cumulative sum control chart (CUSUM) control charts for different trend scenarios. In comparison with the alternatives, step change point model and built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the proposed Bayesian estimator over linear trends. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.
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A novel near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) method has been researched and developed for the simultaneous analyses of the chemical components and associated properties of mint (Mentha haplocalyx Briq.) tea samples. The common analytes were: total polysaccharide content, total flavonoid content, total phenolic content, and total antioxidant activity. To resolve the NIRS data matrix for such analyses, least squares support vector machines was found to be the best chemometrics method for prediction, although it was closely followed by the radial basis function/partial least squares model. Interestingly, the commonly used partial least squares was unsatisfactory in this case. Additionally, principal component analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis were able to distinguish the mint samples according to their four geographical provinces of origin, and this was further facilitated with the use of the chemometrics classification methods-K-nearest neighbors, linear discriminant analysis, and partial least squares discriminant analysis. In general, given the potential savings with sampling and analysis time as well as with the costs of special analytical reagents required for the standard individual methods, NIRS offered a very attractive alternative for the simultaneous analysis of mint samples.
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Stability analyses have been widely used to better understand the mechanism of traffic jam formation. In this paper, we consider the impact of cooperative systems (a.k.a. connected vehicles) on traffic dynamics and, more precisely, on flow stability. Cooperative systems are emerging technologies enabling communication between vehicles and/or with the infrastructure. In a distributed communication framework, equipped vehicles are able to send and receive information to/from other equipped vehicles. Here, the effects of cooperative traffic are modeled through a general bilateral multianticipative car-following law that improves cooperative drivers' perception of their surrounding traffic conditions within a given communication range. Linear stability analyses are performed for a broad class of car-following models. They point out different stability conditions in both multianticipative and nonmultianticipative situations. To better understand what happens in unstable conditions, information on the shock wave structure is studied in the weakly nonlinear regime by the mean of the reductive perturbation method. The shock wave equation is obtained for generic car-following models by deriving the Korteweg de Vries equations. We then derive traffic-state-dependent conditions for the sign of the solitary wave (soliton) amplitude. This analytical result is verified through simulations. Simulation results confirm the validity of the speed estimate. The variation of the soliton amplitude as a function of the communication range is provided. The performed linear and weakly nonlinear analyses help justify the potential benefits of vehicle-integrated communication systems and provide new insights supporting the future implementation of cooperative systems.
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BACKGROUND: Monitoring studies revealed high concentrations of pesticides in the drainage canal of paddy fields. It is important to have a way to predict these concentrations in different management scenarios as an assessment tool. A simulation model for predicting the pesticide concentration in a paddy block (PCPF-B) was evaluated and then used to assess the effect of water management practices for controlling pesticide runoff from paddy fields. RESULTS: The PCPF-B model achieved an acceptable performance. The model was applied to a constrained probabilistic approach using the Monte Carlo technique to evaluate the best management practices for reducing runoff of pretilachlor into the canal. The probabilistic model predictions using actual data of pesticide use and hydrological data in the canal showed that the water holding period (WHP) and the excess water storage depth (EWSD) effectively reduced the loss and concentration of pretilachlor from paddy fields to the drainage canal. The WHP also reduced the timespan of pesticide exposure in the drainage canal. CONCLUSIONS: It is recommended that: (1) the WHP be applied for as long as possible, but for at least 7 days, depending on the pesticide and field conditions; (2) an EWSD greater than 2 cm be maintained to store substantial rainfall in order to prevent paddy runoff, especially during the WHP.
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Driver distraction through mobile phone use in the car is a growing road safety concern. This paper presents findings of a survey (N = 528), which seeks to better understand the predictors of mobile phone use while driving in young (18-25) adult drivers. The survey investigated factors and motivations such as young adults' boredom proneness and their social connectedness, as well as their general mobile phone use and phone use in the car. We found, e.g., that boredom proneness plays a larger role (compared to social connectedness) in determining how much a young male uses their phone in the car (compared to young females). Despite the study’s limitations, this initial understanding allows us to better design and develop innovative HCI interventions that prevent young adults, particularly males, from phone use while driving in a way that appeals to their needs.