Traffic incident clearance time and arrival time prediction based on hazard models

Accurate prediction of incident duration is not only important information of Traffic Incident Management System, but also an ffective input for travel time prediction. In this paper, the hazard based prediction odels are developed for both incident clearance time and arrival time. The data are obtained from the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads’ STREAMS Incident Management System (SIMS) for one year ending in November 2010. The best fitting distributions are drawn for both clearance and arrival time for 3 types of incident: crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard. The results show that Gamma, Log-logistic, and Weibull are the best fit for crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard incident, respectively. The obvious impact factors are given for crash clearance time and arrival time. The quantitative influences for crash and hazard incident are presented for both clearance and arrival. The model accuracy is analyzed at the end.

Enabling safe autonomous driving in real-world city traffic using multiple criteria decision making

This paper addresses the topic of real-time decision making for autonomous city vehicles, i.e., the autonomous vehicles' ability to make appropriate driving decisions in city road traffic situations. The paper explains the overall controls system architecture, the decision making task decomposition, and focuses on how Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is used in the process of selecting the most appropriate driving maneuver from the set of feasible ones. Experimental tests show that MCDM is suitable for this new application area.

Noisy Bluetooth traffic data?

Traffic state estimation in an urban road network remains a challenge for traffic models and the question of how such a network performs remains a difficult one to answer for traffic operators. Lack of detailed traffic information has long restricted research in this area. The introduction of Bluetooth into the automotive world presented an alternative that has now developed to a stage where large-scale test-beds are becoming available, for traffic monitoring and model validation purposes. But how much confidence should we have in such data? This paper aims to give an overview of the usage of Bluetooth, primarily for the city-scale management of urban transport networks, and to encourage researchers and practitioners to take a more cautious look at what is currently understood as a mature technology for monitoring travellers in urban environments. We argue that the full value of this technology is yet to be realised, for the analytical accuracies peculiar to the data have still to be adequately resolved.

Corner and finger formation in Hele-Shaw flow with kinetic undercooling regularisation

We examine the effect of a kinetic undercooling condition on the evolution of a free boundary in Hele--Shaw flow, in both bubble and channel geometries. We present analytical and numerical evidence that the bubble boundary is unstable and may develop one or more corners in finite time, for both expansion and contraction cases. This loss of regularity is interesting because it occurs regardless of whether the less viscous fluid is displacing the more viscous fluid, or vice versa. We show that small contracting bubbles are described to leading order by a well-studied geometric flow rule. Exact solutions to this asymptotic problem continue past the corner formation until the bubble contracts to a point as a slit in the limit. Lastly, we consider the evolving boundary with kinetic undercooling in a Saffman--Taylor channel geometry. The boundary may either form corners in finite time, or evolve to a single long finger travelling at constant speed, depending on the strength of kinetic undercooling. We demonstrate these two different behaviours numerically. For the travelling finger, we present results of a numerical solution method similar to that used to demonstrate the selection of discrete fingers by surface tension. With kinetic undercooling, a continuum of corner-free travelling fingers exists for any finger width above a critical value, which goes to zero as the kinetic undercooling vanishes. We have not been able to compute the discrete family of analytic solutions, predicted by previous asymptotic analysis, because the numerical scheme cannot distinguish between solutions characterised by analytic fingers and those which are corner-free but non-analytic.

Atmospheric-pressure plasma jets : effect of gas flow, active species, and snake-like bullet propagation

Cold atmospheric-pressure plasma jets have recently attracted enormous interest owing to numerous applications in plasma biology, health care, medicine, and nanotechnology. A dedicated study of the interaction between the upstream and downstream plasma plumes revealed that the active species (electrons, ions, excited OH, metastable Ar, and nitrogen-related species) generated by the upstream plasma plume enhance the propagation of the downstream plasma plume. At gas flows exceeding 2 l/min, the downstream plasma plume is longer than the upstream plasma plume. Detailed plasma diagnostics and discharge species analysis suggest that this effect is due to the electrons and ions that are generated by the upstream plasma and flow into the downstream plume. This in turn leads to the relatively higher electron density in the downstream plasma. Moreover, high-speed photography reveals a highly unusual behavior of the plasma bullets, which propagate in snake-like motions, very differently from the previous reports. This behavior is related to the hydrodynamic instability of the gas flow, which results in non-uniform distributions of long-lifetime active species in the discharge tube and of surface charges on the inner surface of the tube.

CFD convective flow simulation of the varying properties of CO2-H20 mixtures in geothermal systems

Numerical simulation of a geothermal reservoir, modelled as a bottom-heated square box, filled with water-CO2 mixture is presented in this work. Furthermore, results for two limiting cases of a reservoir filled with either pure water or CO2 are presented. Effects of different parameters including CO2 concentration as well as reservoir pressure and temperature on the overall performance of the system are investigated. It has been noted that, with a fixed reservoir pressure and temperature, any increase in CO2concentration leads to better performance, i.e. stronger convection and higher heat transfer rates. With a fixed CO2 concentration, however, the reservoir pressure and temperature can significantly affect the overall heat transfer and flow rate from the reservoir. Details of such variations are documented and discussed in the present paper.

CFD simulations of flow and heat transfer through the porous interface of a metal foam heat exchanger

This paper offers numerical modelling of a waste heat recovery system. A thin layer of metal foam is attached to a cold plate to absorb heat from hot gases leaving the system. The heat transferred from the exhaust gas is then transferred to a cold liquid flowing in a secondary loop. Two different foam PPI (Pores Per Inch) values are examined over a range of fluid velocities. Numerical results are then compared to both experimental data and theoretical results available in the literature. Challenges in getting the simulation results to match those of the experiments are addressed and discussed in detail. In particular, interface boundary conditions specified between a porous layer and a fluid layer are investigated. While physically one expects much lower fluid velocity in the pores compared to that of free flow, capturing this sharp gradient at the interface can add to the difficulties of numerical simulation. The existing models in the literature are modified by considering the pressure gradient inside and outside the foam. Comparisons against the numerical modelling are presented. Finally, based on experimentally-validated numerical results, thermo-hydraulic performance of foam heat exchangers as waste heat recovery units is discussed with the main goal of reducing the excess pressure drop and maximising the amount of heat that can be recovered from the hot gas stream.

Modelling total duration of traffic incidents including incident detection and recovery time

Traffic incidents are key contributors to non-recurrent congestion, potentially generating significant delay. Factors that influence the duration of incidents are important to understand so that effective mitigation strategies can be implemented. To identify and quantify the effects of influential factors, a methodology for studying total incident duration based on historical data from an ‘integrated database’ is proposed. Incident duration models are developed using a selected freeway segment in the Southeast Queensland, Australia network. The models include incident detection and recovery time as components of incident duration. A hazard-based duration modelling approach is applied to model incident duration as a function of a variety of factors that influence traffic incident duration. Parametric accelerated failure time survival models are developed to capture heterogeneity as a function of explanatory variables, with both fixed and random parameters specifications. The analysis reveals that factors affecting incident duration include incident characteristics (severity, type, injury, medical requirements, etc.), infrastructure characteristics (roadway shoulder availability), time of day, and traffic characteristics. The results indicate that event type durations are uniquely different, thus requiring different responses to effectively clear them. Furthermore, the results highlight the presence of unobserved incident duration heterogeneity as captured by the random parameter models, suggesting that additional factors need to be considered in future modelling efforts.

Measuring patient flow variations : a cross-organisational process mining approach

Variations that exist in the treatment of patients (with similar symptoms) across different hospitals do substantially impact the quality and costs of healthcare. Consequently, it is important to understand the similarities and differences between the practices across different hospitals. This paper presents a case study on the application of process mining techniques to measure and quantify the differences in the treatment of patients presenting with chest pain symptoms across four South Australian hospitals. Our case study focuses on cross-organisational benchmarking of processes and their performance. Techniques such as clustering, process discovery, performance analysis, and scientific workflows were applied to facilitate such comparative analyses. Lessons learned in overcoming unique challenges in cross-organisational process mining, such as ensuring population comparability, data granularity comparability, and experimental repeatability are also presented.

A comparative study of airborne particulate pollution at two bus stations of different site geography

Airborne particulate pollutant is considered to be one of the major harmful emissions produced by vehicle engines as it has been directly linked to serious health problems. Passengers spend long times at bus stations and may be exposed to high concentrations of pollution. Particle pollution at two bus stations in Brisbane, Australia were monitored. The two bus stations consisted of markedly different site geography and surroundings with one situated in a street canyon and the other elevated above ground level. The same flow of traffic operated through both stations. Real time measurements of ultrafine particle concentration, size distribution and meteorological conditions were carried out on the platform continuously over several days. The results showed that the particle number concentrations were significantly different at the two stations, suggesting that the layout of site geometry and surroundings was a dominant determining factor through the injection of fresh air into the station platforms and the rates of dilution.

Topological localization using optical flow descriptors

We propose a topological localization method based on optical flow information. We analyse the statistical characteristics of the optical flow signal and demonstrate that the flow vectors can be used to identify and describe key locations in the environment. The key locations (nodes) correspond to significant scene changes and depth discontinuities. Since optical flow vectors contain position, magnitude and angle information, for each node, we extract low and high order statistical moments of the vectors and use them as descriptors for that node. Once a database of nodes and their corresponding optical flow features is created, the robot can perform topological localization by using the Mahalanobis distance between the current frame and the database. This is supported by field trials, which illustrate the repeatability of the proposed method for detecting and describing key locations in indoor and outdoor environments in challenging and diverse lighting conditions.

A Study of feature extraction algorithms for optical flow tracking

Sparse optical flow algorithms, such as the Lucas-Kanade approach, provide more robustness to noise than dense optical flow algorithms and are the preferred approach in many scenarios. Sparse optical flow algorithms estimate the displacement for a selected number of pixels in the image. These pixels can be chosen randomly. However, pixels in regions with more variance between the neighbours will produce more reliable displacement estimates. The selected pixel locations should therefore be chosen wisely. In this study, the suitability of Harris corners, Shi-Tomasi's “Good features to track", SIFT and SURF interest point extractors, Canny edges, and random pixel selection for the purpose of frame-by-frame tracking using a pyramidical Lucas-Kanade algorithm is investigated. The evaluation considers the important factors of processing time, feature count, and feature trackability in indoor and outdoor scenarios using ground vehicles and unmanned aerial vehicles, and for the purpose of visual odometry estimation.

Lazy days of simply going with the flow

A travel article about a river cruise from Amsterdam to Basel. When Captain Plamen Veselinov invites me to join him on the bridge, I can at last put a question that’s been running through my mind for days. It’s about the locks. How does he manage to line up the vessel as it approaches? Is the ship guided in electronically? He returns my questions with a boyish smile that does a good deal to veil his many years on the river. Crunching his way through a heavy Bulgarian accent, he says, “No, it’s all in the eyes and the hands. It’s magic. Don’t tell David Copperfield. He would get very jealous...