Comparison of treatment effect sizes associated with surrogate and final patient relevant outcomes in randomised controlled trials: meta-epidemiological study

Objective To quantify and compare the treatment effect and risk of bias of trials reporting biomarkers or intermediate outcomes (surrogate outcomes) versus trials using final patient relevant primary outcomes. Design Meta-epidemiological study. Data sources All randomised clinical trials published in 2005 and 2006 in six high impact medical journals: Annals of Internal Medicine, BMJ, Journal of the American Medical Association, Lancet, New England Journal of Medicine, and PLoS Medicine. Study selection Two independent reviewers selected trials. Data extraction Trial characteristics, risk of bias, and outcomes were recorded according to a predefined form. Two reviewers independently checked data extraction. The ratio of odds ratios was used to quantify the degree of difference in treatment effects between the trials using surrogate outcomes and those using patient relevant outcomes, also adjusted for trial characteristics. A ratio of odds ratios >1.0 implies that trials with surrogate outcomes report larger intervention effects than trials with patient relevant outcomes. Results 84 trials using surrogate outcomes and 101 using patient relevant outcomes were considered for analyses. Study characteristics of trials using surrogate outcomes and those using patient relevant outcomes were well balanced, except for median sample size (371 v 741) and single centre status (23% v 9%). Their risk of bias did not differ. Primary analysis showed trials reporting surrogate endpoints to have larger treatment effects (odds ratio 0.51, 95% confidence interval 0.42 to 0.60) than trials reporting patient relevant outcomes (0.76, 0.70 to 0.82), with an unadjusted ratio of odds ratios of 1.47 (1.07 to 2.01) and adjusted ratio of odds ratios of 1.46 (1.05 to 2.04). This result was consistent across sensitivity and secondary analyses. Conclusions Trials reporting surrogate primary outcomes are more likely to report larger treatment effects than trials reporting final patient relevant primary outcomes. This finding was not explained by differences in the risk of bias or characteristics of the two groups of trials.

Bayesian model comparison in cosmology with Population Monte Carlo

We use Bayesian model selection techniques to test extensions of the standard flat LambdaCDM paradigm. Dark-energy and curvature scenarios, and primordial perturbation models are considered. To that end, we calculate the Bayesian evidence in favour of each model using Population Monte Carlo (PMC), a new adaptive sampling technique which was recently applied in a cosmological context. The Bayesian evidence is immediately available from the PMC sample used for parameter estimation without further computational effort, and it comes with an associated error evaluation. Besides, it provides an unbiased estimator of the evidence after any fixed number of iterations and it is naturally parallelizable, in contrast with MCMC and nested sampling methods. By comparison with analytical predictions for simulated data, we show that our results obtained with PMC are reliable and robust. The variability in the evidence evaluation and the stability for various cases are estimated both from simulations and from data. For the cases we consider, the log-evidence is calculated with a precision of better than 0.08. Using a combined set of recent CMB, SNIa and BAO data, we find inconclusive evidence between flat LambdaCDM and simple dark-energy models. A curved Universe is moderately to strongly disfavoured with respect to a flat cosmology. Using physically well-motivated priors within the slow-roll approximation of inflation, we find a weak preference for a running spectral index. A Harrison-Zel'dovich spectrum is weakly disfavoured. With the current data, tensor modes are not detected; the large prior volume on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r results in moderate evidence in favour of r=0.

Born leaders: Political selection and the relative age effect in the US Congress

We present substantial evidence for the existence of a bias in the distribution of births of leading US politicians in favour of those who were the eldest in their cohort at school. This result adds to the research on the long-term effects of relative age among peers at school. We discuss parametric and non-parametric tests to identify this effect, and we show that it is not driven by measurement error, redshirting or a sorting effect of highly educated parents. The magnitude of the effect that we estimate is larger than what other studies on ‘relative age effects’ have found for broader populations but is in general consistent with research that looks at professional sportsmen. We also find that relative age does not seem to correlate with the quality of elected politicians.

Achieving a national sample of nursing homes: Balancing probability techniques and practicalities

Sampling design is critical to the quality of quantitative research, yet it does not always receive appropriate attention in nursing research. The current article details how balancing probability techniques with practical considerations produced a representative sample of Australian nursing homes (NHs). Budgetary, logistical, and statistical constraints were managed by excluding some NHs (e.g., those too difficult to access) from the sampling frame; a stratified, random sampling methodology yielded a final sample of 53 NHs from a population of 2,774. In testing the adequacy of representation of the study population, chi-square tests for goodness of fit generated nonsignificant results for distribution by distance from major city and type of organization. A significant result for state/territory was expected and was easily corrected for by the application of weights. The current article provides recommendations for conducting high-quality, probability-based samples and stresses the importance of testing the representativeness of achieved samples.

Reproducibility of scratch assays is affected by the initial degree of confluence: Experiments, modelling and model selection

Scratch assays are difficult to reproduce. Here we identify a previously overlooked source of variability which could partially explain this difficulty. We analyse a suite of scratch assays in which we vary the initial degree of confluence (initial cell density). Our results indicate that the rate of re-colonisation is very sensitive to the initial density. To quantify the relative roles of cell migration and proliferation, we calibrate the solution of the Fisher–Kolmogorov model to cell density profiles to provide estimates of the cell diffusivity, D, and the cell proliferation rate, λ. This procedure indicates that the estimates of D and λ are very sensitive to the initial density. This dependence suggests that the Fisher–Kolmogorov model does not accurately represent the details of the collective cell spreading process, since this model assumes that D and λ are constants that ought to be independent of the initial density. Since higher initial cell density leads to enhanced spreading, we also calibrate the solution of the Porous–Fisher model to the data as this model assumes that the cell flux is an increasing function of the cell density. Estimates of D and λ associated with the Porous–Fisher model are less sensitive to the initial density, suggesting that the Porous–Fisher model provides a better description of the experiments.

Is there a role for microsampling in antibiotic pharmacokinetic studies?

- Introduction Clinical pharmacokinetic studies of antibiotics can establish evidence-based dosing regimens that improve the likelihood of eradicating the pathogen at the site of infection, reduce the potential for selection of resistant pathogens, and minimize harm to the patient. Innovations in small volume sampling (< 50 μL) or ‘microsampling’ may result in less-invasive sample collection, self-sampling and dried storage. Microsampling may open up opportunities in patient groups where sampling is challenging. - Areas Covered The challenges for implementation of microsampling to assure suitability of the results, include: acceptable study design, regulatory agency acceptance, and meeting bioanalytical validation requirements. This manuscript covers various microsampling methods, including dried blood/plasma spots, volumetric absorptive microsampling, capillary microsampling, plasma preparation technologies and solid-phase microextraction. - Expert Opinion The available analytical technology is being underutilized due to a lack of bridging studies and validated bioanalytical methods. These deficiencies represent major impediments to the application of microsampling to antibiotic pharmacokinetic studies. A conceptual framework for the assessment of the suitability of microsampling in clinical pharmacokinetic studies of antibiotics is provided. This model establishes a ‘contingency approach’ with consideration of the antibiotic and the type and location of the patient, as well as the more prescriptive bioanalytical validation protocols.

Impact of exercise selection on hamstring muscle activation

Objective: To determine the extent to which different strength training exercises selectively activate the commonly injured biceps femoris long head (BFLH) muscle. Methods: This two-part observational study recruited 24 recreationally active males. Part 1 explored the amplitudes and the ratios of lateral to medial hamstring (BF/MH) normalised electromyography (nEMG) during the concentric and eccentric phases of 10 common strength training exercises. Part 2 used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to determine the spatial patterns of hamstring activation during two exercises which i) most selectively, and ii) least selectively activated the BF in part 1. Results: Eccentrically, the largest BF/MH nEMG ratio was observed in the 45° hip extension exercise and the lowest was observed in the Nordic hamstring (NHE) and bent-knee bridge exercises. Concentrically, the highest BF/MH nEMG ratio was observed during the lunge and 45° hip extension and the lowest was observed for the leg curl and bent-knee bridge. fMRI revealed a greater BFLH to semitendinosus activation ratio in the 45° hip extension than the NHE (p<0.001). The T2 increase after hip extension for BFLH, semitendinosus and semimembranosus muscles were greater than that for BFSH (p<0.001). During the NHE, the T2 increase was greater for the semitendinosus than for the other hamstrings (p≤0.002). Conclusion: This investigation highlights the non-uniformity of hamstring activation patterns in different tasks and suggests that hip extension exercise more selectively activates the BFLH while the NHE preferentially recruits the semitendinosus. These findings have implications for strength training interventions aimed at preventing hamstring injury.

The psychometric properties of the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K6) in a general population sample of adolescents

The 6-item Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K6; Kessler et al., 2002) is a screener for psychological distress that has robust psychometric properties among adults. Given that a significant proportion of adolescents experience mental illness, there is a need for measures that accurately and reliably screen for mental disorders in this age group. This study examined the psychometric properties of the K6 in a large general population sample of adolescents (N = 4,434; mean age = 13.5 years; 44.6% male). Factor analyses were conducted to examine the dimensionality of the K6 in adolescents and to investigate sex-based measurement invariance. This study also evaluated the K6 as a predictor of scores on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ; Goodman, 1997). The K6 demonstrated high levels of internal consistency, with the 6 items loading primarily on 1 factor. Consistent with previous research, females reported higher mean levels of psychological distress when compared with males. The identification of sex-based measurement noninvariance in the item thresholds indicated that these mean differences most likely represented reporting bias in the K6 items rather than true differences in the underlying psychological distress construct. The K6 was a fair to good predictor of abnormal scores on the SDQ, but predictive utility was relatively low among males. Future research needs to focus on refining and augmenting the K6 scale to maximize its utility in adolescents. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved)

Characterisation of head-hardened rail steel in terms of cyclic plasticity response and microstructure for improved material modelling

Stress- and strain-controlled tests of heat treated high-strength rail steel (Australian Standard AS1085.1) have been performed in order to improve the characterisation of the said material׳s ratcheting and fatigue wear behaviour. The hardness of the rail head material has also been studied and it has been found that hardness reduces considerably below four-millimetres from the rail top surface. Historically, researchers have used test coupons with circular cross-sections to conduct cyclic load tests. Such test coupons, typically five-millimetres in gauge diameter and ten‐millimetres in grip diameter, are usually taken from the rail head sample. When there is considerable variation of material properties over the cross-section it becomes likely that localised properties of the rail material will be missed. In another case from the literature, disks 47 mm in diameter for a twin-disk rolling contact test machine were obtained directly from the rail sample and used to validate ratcheting and rolling contact fatigue wear models. The question arises: How accurate are such tests, especially when large material property gradients exist? In this research paper, the effects of rail sampling location on the ratcheting behaviour of AS1085.1 rail steel were investigated using rectangular-shaped specimens obtained at four different depths to observe their respective cyclic plasticity behaviour. The microstructural features of the test coupons were also analysed, especially the pearlite inter-lamellar spacing which showed strong correlation with both hardness and cyclic plasticity behaviour of the material. This work ultimately provides new data and testing methodology to aid the selection of valid parameters for material constitutive models to better understand rail surface ratcheting and wear.

The selection, optimization, and compensation model in the work context: A systematic review and meta-analysis of two decades of research

Over the past two decades, the selection, optimization, and compensation (SOC) model has been applied in the work context to investigate antecedents and outcomes of employees' use of action regulation strategies. We systematically review, meta-analyze, and critically discuss the literature on SOC strategy use at work and outline directions for future research and practice. The systematic review illustrates the breadth of constructs that have been studied in relation to SOC strategy use, and that SOC strategy use can mediate and moderate relationships of person and contextual antecedents with work outcomes. Results of the meta-analysis show that SOC strategy use is positively related to age (rc = .04), job autonomy (rc = .17), self-reported job performance (rc = .23), non-self-reported job performance (rc = .21), job satisfaction (rc = .25), and job engagement (rc = .38), whereas SOC strategy use is not significantly related to job tenure, job demands, and job strain. Overall, our findings underline the importance of the SOC model for the work context, and they also suggest that its measurement and reporting standards need to be improved to become a reliable guide for future research and organizational practice.

Ship collision avoidance and COLREGS compliance using simulation-based control behavior selection with predictive hazard assessment

This paper describes a concept for a collision avoidance system for ships, which is based on model predictive control. A finite set of alternative control behaviors are generated by varying two parameters: offsets to the guidance course angle commanded to the autopilot and changes to the propulsion command ranging from nominal speed to full reverse. Using simulated predictions of the trajectories of the obstacles and ship, compliance with the Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea and collision hazards associated with each of the alternative control behaviors are evaluated on a finite prediction horizon, and the optimal control behavior is selected. Robustness to sensing error, predicted obstacle behavior, and environmental conditions can be ensured by evaluating multiple scenarios for each control behavior. The method is conceptually and computationally simple and yet quite versatile as it can account for the dynamics of the ship, the dynamics of the steering and propulsion system, forces due to wind and ocean current, and any number of obstacles. Simulations show that the method is effective and can manage complex scenarios with multiple dynamic obstacles and uncertainty associated with sensors and predictions.