Predicting the temporal response of seagrass meadows to dredging using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Predicting temporal responses of ecosystems to disturbances associated with industrial activities is critical for their management and conservation. However, prediction of ecosystem responses is challenging due to the complexity and potential non-linearities stemming from interactions between system components and multiple environmental drivers. Prediction is particularly difficult for marine ecosystems due to their often highly variable and complex natures and large uncertainties surrounding their dynamic responses. Consequently, current management of such systems often rely on expert judgement and/or complex quantitative models that consider only a subset of the relevant ecological processes. Hence there exists an urgent need for the development of whole-of-systems predictive models to support decision and policy makers in managing complex marine systems in the context of industry based disturbances. This paper presents Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) for predicting the temporal response of a marine ecosystem to anthropogenic disturbances. The DBN provides a visual representation of the problem domain in terms of factors (parts of the ecosystem) and their relationships. These relationships are quantified via Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs), which estimate the variability and uncertainty in the distribution of each factor. The combination of qualitative visual and quantitative elements in a DBN facilitates the integration of a wide array of data, published and expert knowledge and other models. Such multiple sources are often essential as one single source of information is rarely sufficient to cover the diverse range of factors relevant to a management task. Here, a DBN model is developed for tropical, annual Halophila and temperate, persistent Amphibolis seagrass meadows to inform dredging management and help meet environmental guidelines. Specifically, the impacts of capital (e.g. new port development) and maintenance (e.g. maintaining channel depths in established ports) dredging is evaluated with respect to the risk of permanent loss, defined as no recovery within 5 years (Environmental Protection Agency guidelines). The model is developed using expert knowledge, existing literature, statistical models of environmental light, and experimental data. The model is then demonstrated in a case study through the analysis of a variety of dredging, environmental and seagrass ecosystem recovery scenarios. In spatial zones significantly affected by dredging, such as the zone of moderate impact, shoot density has a very high probability of being driven to zero by capital dredging due to the duration of such dredging. Here, fast growing Halophila species can recover, however, the probability of recovery depends on the presence of seed banks. On the other hand, slow growing Amphibolis meadows have a high probability of suffering permanent loss. However, in the maintenance dredging scenario, due to the shorter duration of dredging, Amphibolis is better able to resist the impacts of dredging. For both types of seagrass meadows, the probability of loss was strongly dependent on the biological and ecological status of the meadow, as well as environmental conditions post-dredging. The ability to predict the ecosystem response under cumulative, non-linear interactions across a complex ecosystem highlights the utility of DBNs for decision support and environmental management.

Prediction of individual genetic risk to prostate cancer using a polygenic score

BACKGROUND Polygenic risk scores comprising established susceptibility variants have shown to be informative classifiers for several complex diseases including prostate cancer. For prostate cancer it is unknown if inclusion of genetic markers that have so far not been associated with prostate cancer risk at a genome-wide significant level will improve disease prediction. METHODS We built polygenic risk scores in a large training set comprising over 25,000 individuals. Initially 65 established prostate cancer susceptibility variants were selected. After LD pruning additional variants were prioritized based on their association with prostate cancer. Six-fold cross validation was performed to assess genetic risk scores and optimize the number of additional variants to be included. The final model was evaluated in an independent study population including 1,370 cases and 1,239 controls. RESULTS The polygenic risk score with 65 established susceptibility variants provided an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.67. Adding an additional 68 novel variants significantly increased the AUC to 0.68 (P = 0.0012) and the net reclassification index with 0.21 (P = 8.5E-08). All novel variants were located in genomic regions established as associated with prostate cancer risk. CONCLUSIONS Inclusion of additional genetic variants from established prostate cancer susceptibility regions improves disease prediction. Prostate 75:1467–1474, 2015. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Women’s Wellness after Cancer Program Study (WWACP)– A multi centre randomised controlled trial examining the benefits and cost effectiveness of an Evidenced Based, e-health intervention

Background Advances in cancer diagnosis and treatment have significantly improved survival rates, through their subsequent health needs are often not adequately addressed by current health services. National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Partnerships Project awarded a national collaborative project to develop, trial and evaluate clinical benefits and cost effectiveness of an e-health enabled structured health promotion intervention - The Women’s Wellness after Cancer Program (WWACP). The aim of this e-health enabled multimodal intervention is to improve health related quality of life in women previously treated for target cancers. Aim The WWACP is a 12-week web based, interactive, holistic program. Primary outcomes for this project are to promote a positive change in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and reduction in Body Mass Index (BMI) in the women undertaking WWACP compared to women who receive usual care. Secondary outcomes include managing other side effects of cancer treatment through evidence-based nutrition and exercise practices, dealing with stress, sleep, menopause and sexuality issues. Methods The single-blinded multi-center randomized controlled trial recruited a toatl of 330 women within 24 months of completion of chemotherapy and /or radiotherapy. Women were randomly assigned to either a usual care or intervention group. Women provided with the intervention were provided with an interactive iBook and journal, web interface, and three virtual consultations by experienced cancer nurses. A variety of methods were utilized, to enable positive self- efficacy and lifestyle changes. These include online coaching with a registered nurse trained in the intervention, plus written educational and health promotional information. The program has been delivered through the e-health enabled interfaces, which enables virtual delivery via desktop and mobile computing devices. Importantly this enables accessibility for rural and regional women in Australia who are frequently geographically disadvantaged in terms of health care provision. Results Research focusing on alternative methods of delivering post treatment / or survivorship care in cancer utilizing web based interfaces is limited, but emerging evidence suggests that Internet interventions can increase psychological and physical wellbeing in cancer patients. The WWACP trial aims to establish the effectiveness of delivery of the program in terms of positive patient outcomes and cost effective, flexibility. The trial will be completed in September and results will be presented at the conference. Conclusions Women after acute hematological, breast and gynecological cancer treatments demonstrate good cancer survival rates and face residual health problems which are amenable to behavioral interventions. The conclusion of active treatment is a key 'teachable moment' in which sustainable positive lifestyle change can be achieved if patients receive education and psychological support which targets key treatment related health problems and known chronic disease risk factors.

Performance based planning in Queensland : A case of unintended plan-making outcomes

Performance based planning (PBP) is purported to be a viable alternative to traditional zoning. The implementation of PBP ranges between pure approaches that rely on predetermined quantifiable performance standards to determine land use suitability, and hybrid approaches that rely on a mix of activity based zones in addition to prescriptive and subjective standards. Jurisdictions in the USA, Australia and New Zealand have attempted this type of land use regulation with varying degrees of success. Despite the adoption of PBP legislation in these jurisdictions, this paper argues that a lack of extensive evaluation means that PBP is not well understood and the purported advantages of this type of planning are rarely achieved in practice. Few empirical studies have attempted to examine how PBP has been implemented in practice. In Queensland, Australia, the Integrated Planning Act 1997 (IPA) operated as Queensland's principal planning legislation between March 1998 and December 2009. While the IPA did not explicitly use the term performance based planning, the Queensland's planning system is widely considered to be performance based in practice. Significantly, the IPA prevented Local Government from prohibiting development or use and the term zone was absent from the legislation. How plan-making would be advanced under the new planning regime was not clear, and as a consequence local governments produced a variety of different plan-making approaches to comply with the new legislative regime. In order to analyse this variation the research has developed a performance adoption spectrum to classify plans ranging between pure and hybrid perspectives of PBP. The spectrum compares how land use was regulated in seventeen IPA plans across Queensland. The research found that hybrid plans predominated, and that over time a greater reliance on risk adverse drafting approaches created a quasi-prohibition plan, the exact opposite of what was intended by the IPA. This paper concludes that the drafting of the IPA and absence of plan-making guidance contributed to lack of shared understanding about the intended direction of the new planning system and resulted in many administrative interpretations of the legislation. It was a planning direction that tried too hard to be different, and as a result created a perception of land use risk and uncertainty that caused a return to more prescriptive and inflexible plan-making methods.

Does gender moderate the relationship between polydrug use and sexual risk-taking among Australian secondary school students under 16 years of age?

Introduction and Aims This study examines the association of alcohol and polydrug use with risky sexual behaviour in adolescents under 16 years of age and if this association differs by gender. Design and Methods The sample consisted of 5412 secondary school students under 16 years of age from Victoria, Australia. Participants completed an anonymous and confidential survey during class time. The key measures were having had sex before legal age of consent (16 years), unprotected sex before 16 (no condom) and latent-class derived alcohol and polydrug use variables based on alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, inhalants and other illegal drug use in the past month. Results There were 7.52% and 2.55% of adolescents who reported having sex and having unprotected sex before 16 years of age, respectively. After adjusting for antisocial behaviours, peers' drug use and family and school risk factors, girls were less likely to have unprotected sex (odds ratio = 0.31, P = 0.003). However, the interaction of being female and polydrug use (odds ratio = 4.52, P = 0.004) was significant, indicating that girls who engaged in polydrug use were at higher risk of having unprotected sex. For boys, the effect of polydrug use was non-significant (odds ratio = 1.44, P = 0.310). Discussion and Conclusions For girls, polydrug use was significantly associated with unprotected sex after adjusting for a range of risk factors, and this relationship was non-significant for boys. Future prevention programs for adolescent risky sexual behaviour and polydrug use might benefit from a tailored approach to gender differences.

Fidgeting is associated with lower mortality risk

Context Evidence from prospective cohort studies has suggested that high volumes of reported daily sitting time is associated with mortality.1 ,2 However, not all have observed the same association.3 Fidgeting (small movements associated with nervousness or impatience), could provide additional energy expenditure when sitting, although the relationship with sitting and health outcomes had yet to be examined. Hagger-Johnson et al examined data from nearly 13 000 women to determine whether fidgeting modified the association between sitting time and mortality. Methods This study featured prospective data from 12 778 participants (aged 37–78 years) in the Women's Cohort Study (UK). Average daily sitting time was reported for weekdays and weekend days, and combined …

Safety of Repair, Maintenance, Minor Alteration, and Addition (RMAA) Works: A New Focus of Construction Safety

"Safety of RMAA works is an almost uncharted topic of rising importance internationally. Small construction contractors are particularly dependant on RMAA work, especially during times of recession, and they undertake more risks on these jobs than large companies do. This book is based on unique international research and consultancy projects which detail, investigate, and suggest solutions to the specific challenges of safety in RMAA works, based on case studies. Starting with an overview of safety in the wider construction industries of developed countries, the first half of this book also provides a comprehensive summary of relevant rules, regulations, and the resulting safety performances. The systems in the UK, US and Hong Kong are described and contrasted, giving the reader an understanding of how different regulatory approaches have yielded a variety of results. From this solid introduction, specific problems observed in RMAA work are examined through case studies, with reference to the underlying cultural and demographic factors, and a variety of practical engineering and management solutions are explored. This important and practical international work is essential reading for postgraduate students of health and safety in construction, construction project management, or construction in developing countries, as well as policy-makers and construction project managers."--Publisher website