672 resultados para Prediction theory


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Recent research has proposed Neo-Piagetian theory as a useful way of describing the cognitive development of novice programmers. Neo-Piagetian theory may also be a useful way to classify materials used in learning and assessment. If Neo-Piagetian coding of learning resources is to be useful then it is important that practitioners can learn it and apply it reliably. We describe the design of an interactive web-based tutorial for Neo-Piagetian categorization of assessment tasks. We also report an evaluation of the tutorial's effectiveness, in which twenty computer science educators participated. The average classification accuracy of the participants on each of the three Neo-Piagetian stages were 85%, 71% and 78%. Participants also rated their agreement with the expert classifications, and indicated high agreement (91%, 83% and 91% across the three Neo-Piagetian stages). Self-rated confidence in applying Neo-Piagetian theory to classifying programming questions before and after the tutorial were 29% and 75% respectively. Our key contribution is the demonstration of the feasibility of the Neo-Piagetian approach to classifying assessment materials, by demonstrating that it is learnable and can be applied reliably by a group of educators. Our tutorial is freely available as a community resource.

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The numerical solution of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) has been focused recently on the development of numerical methods with good stability and order properties. These numerical implementations have been made with fixed stepsize, but there are many situations when a fixed stepsize is not appropriate. In the numerical solution of ordinary differential equations, much work has been carried out on developing robust implementation techniques using variable stepsize. It has been necessary, in the deterministic case, to consider the "best" choice for an initial stepsize, as well as developing effective strategies for stepsize control-the same, of course, must be carried out in the stochastic case. In this paper, proportional integral (PI) control is applied to a variable stepsize implementation of an embedded pair of stochastic Runge-Kutta methods used to obtain numerical solutions of nonstiff SDEs. For stiff SDEs, the embedded pair of the balanced Milstein and balanced implicit method is implemented in variable stepsize mode using a predictive controller for the stepsize change. The extension of these stepsize controllers from a digital filter theory point of view via PI with derivative (PID) control will also be implemented. The implementations show the improvement in efficiency that can be attained when using these control theory approaches compared with the regular stepsize change strategy.

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This paper reports a study that explored a new construct: ‘climate of fear’. We hypothesised that climate of fear would vary across work sites within organisations, but not across organisations. This is in contrast a to measures of organisational culture, which were expected to vary both within and across organisations. To test our hypotheses, we developed a new 13-item measure of perceived fear in organisations and tested it in 20 sites across two organisations (N ≡ 209). Culture variables measured were innovative leadership culture, and communication culture. Results were that climate of fear did vary across sites in both organisations, while differences across organisations were not significant, as we anticipated. Organisational culture, however, varied between the organisations, and within one of the organisations. The climate of fear scale exhibited acceptable psychometric properties

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An engaging narrative is maintained throughout this edited collection of articles that address the issue of militarism in international relations. The book seamlessly integrates historical and contemporary perspectives on militarism with theory and relevant international case studies, resulting in a very informative read. The work is comprised of three parts. Part 1 deals with the theorisation of militarism and includes chapters by Anna Stavrianakis and Jan Selby, Martin Shaw, Simon Dalby, and Nicola Short. It covers a range of topics relating to historical and contemporary theories of militarism, geopolitical threat construction, political economy, and the US military’s ‘cultural turn’.

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Background Predicting protein subnuclear localization is a challenging problem. Some previous works based on non-sequence information including Gene Ontology annotations and kernel fusion have respective limitations. The aim of this work is twofold: one is to propose a novel individual feature extraction method; another is to develop an ensemble method to improve prediction performance using comprehensive information represented in the form of high dimensional feature vector obtained by 11 feature extraction methods. Methodology/Principal Findings A novel two-stage multiclass support vector machine is proposed to predict protein subnuclear localizations. It only considers those feature extraction methods based on amino acid classifications and physicochemical properties. In order to speed up our system, an automatic search method for the kernel parameter is used. The prediction performance of our method is evaluated on four datasets: Lei dataset, multi-localization dataset, SNL9 dataset and a new independent dataset. The overall accuracy of prediction for 6 localizations on Lei dataset is 75.2% and that for 9 localizations on SNL9 dataset is 72.1% in the leave-one-out cross validation, 71.7% for the multi-localization dataset and 69.8% for the new independent dataset, respectively. Comparisons with those existing methods show that our method performs better for both single-localization and multi-localization proteins and achieves more balanced sensitivities and specificities on large-size and small-size subcellular localizations. The overall accuracy improvements are 4.0% and 4.7% for single-localization proteins and 6.5% for multi-localization proteins. The reliability and stability of our classification model are further confirmed by permutation analysis. Conclusions It can be concluded that our method is effective and valuable for predicting protein subnuclear localizations. A web server has been designed to implement the proposed method. It is freely available at http://bioinformatics.awowshop.com/snlpr​ed_page.php.

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Previous studies have enabled exact prediction of probabilities of identity-by-descent (IBD) in randommating populations for a few loci (up to four or so), with extension to more using approximate regression methods. Here we present a precise predictor of multiple-locus IBD using simple formulas based on exact results for two loci. In particular, the probability of non-IBD X ABC at each of ordered loci A, B, and C can be well approximated by XABC = XABXBC/XB and generalizes to X123. . .k = X12X23. . .Xk-1,k/ Xk-2, where X is the probability of non-IBD at each locus. Predictions from this chain rule are very precise with population bottlenecks and migration, but are rather poorer in the presence of mutation. From these coefficients, the probabilities of multilocus IBD and non-IBD can also be computed for genomic regions as functions of population size, time, and map distances. An approximate but simple recurrence formula is also developed, which generally is less accurate than the chain rule but is more robust with mutation. Used together with the chain rule it leads to explicit equations for non-IBD in a region. The results can be applied to detection of quantitative trait loci (QTL) by computing the probability of IBD at candidate loci in terms of identity-by-state at neighboring markers.

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A novel multiple regression method (RM) is developed to predict identity-by-descent probabilities at a locus L (IBDL), among individuals without pedigree, given information on surrounding markers and population history. These IBDL probabilities are a function of the increase in linkage disequilibrium (LD) generated by drift in a homogeneous population over generations. Three parameters are sufficient to describe population history: effective population size (Ne), number of generations since foundation (T), and marker allele frequencies among founders (p). IBD L are used in a simulation study to map a quantitative trait locus (QTL) via variance component estimation. RM is compared to a coalescent method (CM) in terms of power and robustness of QTL detection. Differences between RM and CM are small but significant. For example, RM is more powerful than CM in dioecious populations, but not in monoecious populations. Moreover, RM is more robust than CM when marker phases are unknown or when there is complete LD among founders or Ne is wrong, and less robust when p is wrong. CM utilises all marker haplotype information, whereas RM utilises information contained in each individual marker and all possible marker pairs but not in higher order interactions. RM consists of a family of models encompassing four different population structures, and two ways of using marker information, which contrasts with the single model that must cater for all possible evolutionary scenarios in CM.

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In recent years, software development outsourcing has become even more complex. Outsourcing partner have begun‘re- outsourcing’ components of their projects to other outsourcing companies to minimize cost and gain efficiencies, creating a multi-level hierarchy of outsourcing. This research in progress paper presents preliminary findings of a study designed to understand knowledge transfer effectiveness of multi-level software development outsourcing projects. We conceptualize the SD-outsourcing entities using the Agency Theory. This study conceptualizes, operationalises and validates the concept of Knowledge Transfer as a three-phase multidimensional formative index of 1) Domain knowledge, 2) Communication behaviors, and 3) Clarity of requirements. Data analysis identified substantial, significant differences between the Principal and the Agent on two of the three constructs. Using Agency Theory, supported by preliminary findings, the paper also provides prescriptive guidelines of reducing the friction between the Principal and the Agent in multi-level software outsourcing.

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Academically gifted students are recognised as possessing considerable achievement potential. Yet many fail to perform at a level commensurate with their ability. Often gifted students in early adolescence are faced with a forced choice between fulfilment of potential and achieving stable positive relationships with peers. This choice can affect their achievement and may have far-reaching personal and social costs. This case study explored the viability of self-presentation theory to explain students' ways of negotiating their sense of self whilst developing public identity and the concomitant affects on achievement and the fulfilment of potential. It examined how gifted students moderate their images in their learning and extra-curricular environments. Further, the study identifies those self-presentation strategies adopted that either facilitate or hinder achievement. This study may assist parents, educators and school counsellors to provide greater support for gifted adolescents.

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The biosafety of carbon nanomaterial needs to be critically evaluated with both experimental and theoretical validations before extensive biomedical applications. In this letter, we present an analysis of the binding ability of two dimensional monolayer carbon nanomaterial on actin by molecular simulation to understand their adhesive characteristics on F-actin cytoskeleton. The modelling results indicate that the positively charged carbon nanomaterial has higher binding stability on actin. Compared to crystalline graphene, graphene oxide shows higher binding influence on actin when carrying 11 positive surface charge. This theoretical investigation provides insights into the sensitivity of actin-related cellular activities on carbon nanomaterial.

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Bus travel time estimation and prediction are two important modelling approaches which could facilitate transit users in using and transit providers in managing the public transport network. Bus travel time estimation could assist transit operators in understanding and improving the reliability of their systems and attracting more public transport users. On the other hand, bus travel time prediction is an important component of a traveller information system which could reduce the anxiety and stress for the travellers. This paper provides an insight into the characteristic of bus in traffic and the factors that influence bus travel time. A critical overview of the state-of-the-art in bus travel time estimation and prediction is provided and the needs for research in this important area are highlighted. The possibility of using Vehicle Identification Data (VID) for studying the relationship between bus and cars travel time is also explored.

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As one of the measures for decreasing road traffic noise in a city, the control of the traffic flow and the physical distribution is considered. To conduct the measure effectively, the model for predicting the traffic flow in the citywide road network is necessary. In this study, the existing model named AVENUE was used as a traffic flow prediction model. The traffic flow model was integrated with the road vehicles' sound power model and the sound propagation model, and the new road traffic noise prediction model was established. As a case study, the prediction model was applied to the road network of Tsukuba city in Japan and the noise map of the city was made. To examine the calculation accuracy of the noise map, the calculated values of the noise at the main roads were compared with the measured values. As a result, it was found that there was a possibility that the high accuracy noise map of the city could be made by using the noise prediction model developed in this study.

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The main purpose of this longitudinal study was to investigate the role of motivational climates, perceived competence and motivational regulations as antecedents of self-reported physical activity during junior high school years. The participants included 237 Finnish students (101 girls, 136 boys) that were 13 years old at the first stage of the study. Students completed the motivational climate and perceived competence questionnaires at Grade 7, motivation towards physical education questionnaire at Grade 8, and self-reported physical activity questionnaire at Grade 9. A path analysis revealed a path from task-involving motivational climate via perceived competence and intrinsic motivation to self-reported physical activity. Perceived competence and intrinsic motivation were statistically significant mediators between task-involving motivational climate and self-reported physical activity. This finding supports the four-stage causal sequence model of motivation.

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This report is the second deliverable of the Real Time and Predictive Traveller Information project and the first deliverable of the Freeway Travel Time Information sub-project in the Integrated Traveller Information research Domain of the Smart Transport Research Centre. The primary objective of the Freeway Travel Time Information sub-project is to develop algorithms for real-time travel time estimation and prediction models for Freeway traffic. The objective of this report is to review the literature pertaining to travel time estimation and prediction models for freeway traffic.