The influence of motorcyclist behavior in crash involvement

Introduction: In Singapore, motorcycle crashes account for 50% of traffic fatalities and 53% of injuries. While extensive research efforts have been devoted to improve the motorcycle safety, the relationship between the rider behavior and the crash risk is still not well understood. The objective of this study is to evaluate how behavioral factors influence crash risk and to identify the most vulnerable group of motorcyclists. Methods: To explore the rider behavior, a 61-item questionnaire examining sensation seeking (Zuckerman et al., 1978), impulsiveness (Eysenck et al., 1985), aggressiveness (Buss & Perry, 1992), and risk-taking behavior (Weber et al., 2002) was developed. A total of 240 respondents with at least one year riding experience form the sample that relate behavior to their crash history, traffic penalty awareness, and demographic characteristics. By clustering the crash risk using the medoid portioning algorithm, the log-linear model relating the rider behavior to crash risk was developed. Results and Discussions: Crash-involved motorcyclists scored higher in impulsive sensation seeking, aggression and risk-taking behavior. Aggressive and high risk-taking motorcyclists were respectively 1.30 and 2.21 times more likely to fall under the high crash involvement group while impulsive sensation seeking was not found to be significant. Based on the scores on risk-taking and aggression, the motorcyclists were clustered into four distinct personality combinations namely, extrovert (aggressive, impulsive risk-takers), leader (cautious, aggressive risk-takers), follower (agreeable, ignorant risk-takers), and introvert (self-consciousness, fainthearted risk-takers). “Extrovert” motorcyclists were most prone to crashes, being 3.34 times more likely to involve in crash and 8.29 times more vulnerable than the “introvert”. Mediating factors like demographic characteristics, riding experience, and traffic penalty awareness were found not to be significant in reducing crash risk. Conclusion: The findings of this study will be useful for road safety campaign planners to be more focused in the target group as well as those who employ motorcyclists for their delivery business.

Evaluation of an intervention to promote protective infant feeding practices to prevent childhood obesity : outcomes of the NOURISH RCT at 14 months of age and 6 months post the first of two intervention modules

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate a universal obesity prevention intervention, which commenced at infant age 4-6 months, using outcome data assessed 6-months after completion of the first of two intervention modules and 9 months from baseline. DESIGN: Randomised controlled trial of a community-based early feeding intervention. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: 698 first-time mothers (mean age 30±5 years) with healthy term infants (51% male) aged 4.3±1.0 months at baseline. Mothers and infants were randomly allocated to self-directed access to usual care or to attend two group education modules, each delivered over three months, that provided anticipatory guidance on early feeding practices. Outcome data reported here were assessed at infant age 13.7±1.3 months. Anthropometrics were expressed as z-scores (WHO reference). Rapid weight gain was defined as change in weight-for-age z-score (WAZ) > +0.67. Maternal feeding practices were assessed via self-administered questionnaire. RESULTS: There were no differences according to group allocation on key maternal and infant characteristics. At follow up (n=598 [86%]) the intervention group infants had lower BMIZ (0.42±0.85 vs 0.23±0.93, p=0.009) and infants in the control group were more likely to show rapid weight gain from baseline to follow up (OR=1.5 CI95%1.1-2.1, p=0.014). Mothers in the control group were more likely to report using non- responsive feeding practices that fail to respond to infant satiety cues such as encouraging eating by using food as a reward (15% vs 4%, p=0.001) or using games ( 67% vs 29%, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: These results provide early evidence that anticipatory guidance targeting the ‘when, what and how’ of solid feeding can be effective in changing maternal feeding practices and, at least in the short term, reducing anthropometric indicators of childhood obesity risk. Analyses of outcomes at later ages are required to determine if these promising effects can be sustained.

Navigational safety in port waters: Techniques for modeling collision risk

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns for many seaports. Continuing growth of shipping traffic in number and sizes is likely to result in increased number of traffic movements, which consequently could result higher risk of collisions in these restricted waters. This continually increasing safety concern warrants a comprehensive technique for modeling collision risk in port waters, particularly for modeling the probability of collision events and the associated consequences (i.e., injuries and fatalities). A number of techniques have been utilized for modeling the risk qualitatively, semi-quantitatively and quantitatively. These traditional techniques mostly rely on historical collision data, often in conjunction with expert judgments. However, these techniques are hampered by several shortcomings, such as randomness and rarity of collision occurrence leading to obtaining insufficient number of collision counts for a sound statistical analysis, insufficiency in explaining collision causation, and reactive approach to safety. A promising alternative approach that overcomes these shortcomings is the navigational traffic conflict technique (NTCT), which uses traffic conflicts as an alternative to the collisions for modeling the probability of collision events quantitatively. This article explores the existing techniques for modeling collision risk in port waters. In particular, it identifies the advantages and limitations of the traditional techniques and highlights the potentials of the NTCT in overcoming the limitations. In view of the principles of the NTCT, a structured method for managing collision risk is proposed. This risk management method allows safety analysts to diagnose safety deficiencies in a proactive manner, which consequently has great potential for managing collision risk in a fast, reliable and efficient manner.

Tooth fracture risk analysis based on a new finite element dental structure models using micro-CT data

The finite element (FE) analysis is an effective method to study the strength and predict the fracture risk of endodontically-treated teeth. This paper presents a rapid method developed to generate a comprehensive tooth FE model using data retrieved from micro-computed tomography (μCT). With this method, the inhomogeneity of material properties of teeth was included into the model without dividing the tooth model into different regions. The material properties of the tooth were assumed to be related to the mineral density. The fracture risk at different tooth portions was assessed for root canal treatments. The micro-CT images of a tooth were processed by a Matlab software programme and the CT numbers were retrieved. The tooth contours were obtained with thresholding segmentation using Amira. The inner and outer surfaces of the tooth were imported into Solidworks and a three-dimensional (3D) tooth model was constructed. An assembly of the tooth model with the periodontal ligament (PDL) layer and surrounding bone was imported into ABAQUS. The material properties of the tooth were calculated from the retrieved CT numbers via ABAQUS user's subroutines. Three root canal geometries (original and two enlargements) were investigated. The proposed method in this study can generate detailed 3D finite element models of a tooth with different root canal enlargements and filling materials, and would be very useful for the assessment of the fracture risk at different tooth portions after root canal treatments.

Risk and Responsibility in Women's Prisons

I have been invited to discuss Risk and Responsibility in Women’s Prisons, a task which, is slightly intimidating for one such as I, who, having never worked in a prison, have never experienced the risks and responsibilities working in a prison entails. However, this discussion is based on what prisons’ staff have told me, as they have ruminated on the complexities of their jobs in women’s prisons and many of the examples which I will be using are taken from cross-national research which I did in 2000 and 2001 and which set out to analyse the fortunes of some innovatory programmes in relation to women’s prisons in England, Scotland, North America, Australia and Israel (Carlen 2002). The discussion draws in particular on the imaginative way in which the Scottish women’s prison, Cornton Vale, responded to the spate of suicides which it had in the late 1990s and which resulted in far reaching organizational change.

Pre-sentence Report, Magisterial Discourse and Agency in Youth Courts in England

This article draws on interviews with Youth Court magistrates to examine if and how discourses, strategies and technologies of risk governance have affected Youth Court magistrates in England and Wales. The aim of the article is to detail the complex relationship between magisterial agency in decision making and youth justice policies which focus on risk control and management. The article demonstrates that, contrary to what might be assumed from the youth and risk governance theoretical literature, Youth Offending Team risk assessments form only one part of the information used by magistrates to explain young people’s presence in courts. This article concludes that magisterial decision making is framed not by formal, expert assessments of risk, but by magistrates’ claims that they are ‘knowing outsiders’, who through judicious use of information presented to them and their own life experiences are able to make objective judgements about both the risk assessments authored by Youth Offending Teams and the young lawbreakers before them.