Inadvertent hypothermia after procedural sedation and analgesia in a cardiac catheterisation laboratory: A prospective observational study

Objective To identify the prevalence of and risk factors for inadvertent hypothermia after procedures performed with procedural sedation and analgesia in a cardiac catheterisation laboratory. Design Single-centre, prospective observational study. Setting Tertiary care private hospital in Australia. Participants A convenience sample of 399 patients undergoing elective procedures with procedural sedation and analgesia were included. Propofol infusions were used when an anaesthetist was present. Otherwise, bolus doses of either midazolam or fentanyl or a combination of these medications was used. Interventions None Measurements and main results Hypothermia was defined as a temperature <36.0° Celsius. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify risk factors. Hypothermia was present after 23.3% (n=93; 95% confidence interval [CI] 19.2%-27.4%) of 399 procedures. Sedative regimens with the highest prevalence of hypothermia were any regimen that included propofol (n=35; 40.2%; 95% CI 29.9%-50.5%) and the use of fentanyl combined with midazolam (n=23; 20.3%; 95% CI 12.9%-27.7%). Difference in mean temperature from pre to post-procedure was -0.27°C (Standard deviation [SD] 0.45). Receiving propofol (odds ratio [OR] OR 4.6 95% CI 2.5-8.6), percutaneous coronary intervention (OR 3.2 95% CI 1.7-5.9), body mass index <25 (OR 2.5 95% CI 1.4-4.4) and being hypothermic prior to the procedure (OR 4.9; 95% CI 2.3-10.8) were independent predictors of post-procedural hypothermia. Conclusions A moderate prevalence of hypothermia was observed. The small absolute change in temperature observed may not be a clinically important amount. More research is needed to increase confidence in our estimates of hypothermia in sedated patients and its impact on clinical outcomes.

Pituitary volume and early treatment response in drug-naïve first-episode psychosis patients

BACKGROUND: An early response to antipsychotic treatment in patients with psychosis has been associated with a better course and outcome. However, factors that predict treatment response are not well understood. The onset of schizophrenia and related disorders has been associated with increased levels of stress and hyper-activation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis. This study examined whether pituitary volume at the onset of psychosis may be a potential predictor of early treatment response in first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients. METHODS: We investigated the relationship between baseline pituitary volume and symptomatic treatment response over 12 weeks using mixed model analysis in a sample of 42 drug-naïve or early treated FEP patients who participated in a controlled dose-finding study of quetiapine fumarate. Logistic regression was used to examine predictors of treatment response. Pituitary volume was measured from magnetic resonance imaging scans that were obtained upon entry into the trial. RESULTS: Larger pituitary volume was associated with less improvement in overall psychotic symptoms (Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) P=0.031) and positive symptoms (BPRS positive symptom subscale P=0.010). Regardless of gender, patients with a pituitary volume at the 25th percentile (413 mm(3)) were approximately three times more likely to respond to treatment by week 12 than those at the 75th percentile (635 mm(3)) (odds ratio=3.07, CI: 0.90-10.48). CONCLUSION: The association of baseline pituitary volumes with early treatment response highlights the importance of the HPA axis in emerging psychosis. Potential implications for treatment strategies in early psychosis are discussed.

Functional and psychosocial outcomes 1 year after mild stroke

Background Mild stroke survivors are generally discharged from acute care within a few days of the stroke event, often without rehabilitation follow-up. We aimed to examine the recovery trajectory for male patients and their wife-caregivers during the 12 months postdischarge. Methods A descriptive study was undertaken to examine functional outcomes, quality of life (QOL), depression, caregiver strain, and marital function in a prospective cohort of male survivors of mild stroke and their wife-caregivers during the 12 months postdischarge. Data from each point in time were summarized and repeated measures analyses undertaken. Logistic regression was used to determine which baseline demographic and biopsychosocial variables influenced or predicted marital functioning 1 year postdischarge. Results A total of 38 male patients (mean age 63.4 years) and their wife-caregivers (mean age 58.5 years) were examined. The median discharge National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score was 1.5, modified Rankin Scale score was 1.0, Barthel Index was 100.0, and Stroke Impact Scale-16v2 score was 78.5. The patients' modified Rankin Scale (function) and QOL scores improved significantly over time (F (2) = 4.583, P = .017; and F (6) = 5.632, P < .001, respectively). However, the wife-caregiver QOL scores did not change. Multivariate analysis revealed overall worsening of depression for both the patient and wife-caregivers (F (6, 32) = 3.087, P = .017) and marital function (F (6, 32) = 3.961, P = .004), although the wife-caregivers' perceptions of caregiver strain improved (F (6, 32) = 3.923, P = .007). None of the measured variables were associated with marital functioning 1 year postdischarge. Conclusions Despite improvement in patients' functional status, other patient and wife-caregiver psychosocial outcomes during the 12 months postdischarge may be negatively affected. Thus, attention needs to focus on recovery beyond functional outcomes.

Commuting mode choice in transit oriented development: Disentangling the effects of competitive neighbourhoods, travel attitudes, and self-selection

This research identifies the commuting mode choice behaviour of 3537 adults living in different types of transit oriented development (TOD) in Brisbane by disentangling the effects of their “evil twin” transit adjacent developments (TADs), and by also controlling for residential self-selection, travel attitudes and preferences, and socio-demographic effects. A TwoStep cluster analysis was conducted to identify the natural groupings of respondents’ living environment based on six built environment indicators. The analysis resulted in five types of neighbourhoods: urban TODs, activity centre TODs, potential TODs, TADs, and traditional suburbs. HABITAT survey data were used to derive the commute mode choice behaviour of people living in these neighbourhoods. In addition, statements reflecting both respondents’ travel attitudes and living preferences were also collected as part of the survey. Factor analyses were conducted based on these statements and these derived factors were then used to control for residential self-selection. Four binary logistic regression models were estimated, one for each of the travel modes used (e.g. public transport, active transport, less sustainable transport such as the car/taxi, and other), to differentiate between the commuting behaviour of people living in the five types of neighbourhoods. The findings verify that urban TODs enhance the use of public transport and reduce car usage. No significant difference was found in the commuting behaviour between respondents living in traditional suburbs and TADs. The results confirm the hypothesis that TADs are the “evil twin” of TODs. The data indicates that TADs and the mode choices of residents in these neighbourhoods is a missed transport policy opportunity. Further policy efforts are required for a successive transition of TADs into TODs in order to realise the full benefits of these. TOD policy should also be integrated with context specific TOD design principles.

The influence of family history of hypertension on disease prevalence and associated metabolic risk factors among Sri Lankan adults

Background Hypertension is a major contributor to the global non-communicable disease burden. Family history is an important non-modifiable risk factor for hypertension. The present study aims to describe the influence of family history (FH) on hypertension prevalence and associated metabolic risk factors in a large cohort of South Asian adults, from a nationally representative sample from Sri Lanka. Methods A cross-sectional survey among 5,000 Sri Lankan adults, evaluating FH at the levels of parents, grandparents, siblings and children. A binary logistic regression analysis was performed in all patients with ‘presence of hypertension’ as dichotomous dependent variable and using family history in parents, grandparents, siblings and children as binary independent variables. The adjusted odds ratio controlling for confounders (age, gender, body mass index, diabetes, hyperlipidemia and physical activity) are presented below. Results In all adults the prevalence of hypertension was significantly higher in patients with a FH (29.3 %, n = 572/1951) than those without (24.4 %, n = 616/2530) (p < 0.001). Presence of a FH significantly increased the risk of hypertension (OR:1.29; 95 % CI:1.13-1.47), obesity (OR:1.36; 95 % CI: 1.27–1.45), central obesity (OR:1.30; 95 % CI 1.22–1.40) and metabolic syndrome (OR:1.19; 95 % CI: 1.08–1.30). In all adults presence of family history in parents (OR:1.28; 95 % CI: 1.12–1.48), grandparents (OR:1.34; 95 % CI: 1.20–1.50) and siblings (OR:1.27; 95 % CI: 1.21–1.33) all were associated with significantly increased risk of developing hypertension. Conclusions Our results show that the prevalence of hypertension was significantly higher in those with a FH of hypertension. FH of hypertension was also associated with the prevalence of obesity, central obesity and metabolic syndrome. Individuals with a FH of hypertension form an easily identifiable group who may benefit from targeted interventions.

Gender-specific differences of interaction between obesity and air pollution on stroke and cardiovascular diseases in Chinese adults from a high pollution range area: A large population based cross sectional study

Background Little information exists regarding the interaction effects of obesity with long-term air pollution exposure on cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and stroke in areas of high pollution. The aim of the present study is to examine whether obesity modifies CVD-related associations among people living in an industrial province of northeast China. Methods We studied 24,845 Chinese adults, aged 18 to 74 years old, from three Northeastern Chinese cities in 2009 utilizing a cross-sectional study design. Body weight and height were measured by trained observers. Overweight and obesity were defined as a body mass index (BMI) between 25–29.9 and ≥ 30 kg/m2, respectively. Prevalence rate and related risk factors of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were investigated by a questionnaire. Three-year (2006–2008) average concentrations of particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxides (NO2), and ozone (O3) were measured by fixed monitoring stations. All the participants lived within 1 km of air monitoring sites. Two-level logistic regression (personal level and district-specific pollutant level) was used to examine these effects, controlling for covariates. Results We observed significant interactions between exposure and obesity on CVDs and stroke. The associations between annual pollutant concentrations and CVDs and stroke were strongest in obese subjects (OR 1.15–1.47 for stroke, 1.33–1.59 for CVDs), less strong in overweight subjects (OR 1.22–1.35 for stroke, 1.07–1.13 for CVDs), and weakest in normal weight subjects (OR ranged from 0.98–1.01 for stroke, 0.93–1.15 for CVDs). When stratified by gender, these interactions were significant only in women. Conclusions Study findings indicate that being overweight and obese may enhance the effects of air pollution on the prevalence of CVDs and stroke in Northeastern metropolitan China. Further studies will be needed to investigate the temporality of BMI relative to exposure and onset of disease.

Is comfort important for optimal use of child restraints?

Suboptimal restraint use, particularly the incorrect use of restraints, is a significant and widespread problem among child vehicle occupants, and increases the risk of injury. Previous research has identified comfort as a potential factor influencing suboptimal restraint use. Both the real comfort experienced by the child and the parent’s perception of the child’s comfort are reported to influence the optimal use of restraints. Problems with real comfort may lead the child to misuse the restraint in their attempt to achieve better comfort whilst parent-perceived discomfort has been reported as a driver for premature graduation and inappropriate restraint choice. However, this work has largely been qualitative. There has been no research that objectively studies either the association between real and parental perceived comfort, or any association between comfort and suboptimal restraint use. One barrier to such studies is the absence of validated tools for quantifying real comfort in children. We aimed to develop methods to examine both real and parent-perceived comfort and examine their effects on suboptimal restraint use. We conducted online parent surveys (n=470) to explore what drives parental perceptions of their child’s comfort in restraint systems (study 1) and used data from field observation studies (n=497) to examine parent-perceived comfort and its relationship with observed restraint use (study 2). We developed methods to measure comfort in children in a laboratory setting (n=14) using video analysis to estimate a Discomfort Avoidance Behaviour (DAB) score, pressure mapping and adapted survey tools to differentiate between comfortable and induced discomfort conditions (study 3). Preliminary analysis of our recent online survey of Australian parents (study 1) indicates that 23% of parents report comfort as a consideration when making a decision to change restraints. Logistic regression modelling of data collected during the field observation study (study 2) revealed that parent-perceived discomfort was not significantly associated with premature graduation. Contrary to expectation, children of parents who reported that their child was comfortable were almost twice as likely to have been incorrectly restrained (p<0.01, 95% CI 1.24 - 2.77). In the laboratory study (study 3) we found our adapted survey tools did not provide a reliable measurement of real comfort among children. However our DAB score was able to differentiate between comfortable and induced discomfort conditions and correlated well with pressure mapping. Our results suggest that while some parents report concern about their child’s comfort, parent-reported comfort levels were not associated with restraint choice. If comfort is important for optimal restraint use, it is likely to be the real comfort of the child rather than that reported by the parent. The method we have developed for studying real comfort can be used in naturalistic studies involving child occupants to further understand this relationship. This work will be of interest to vehicle and child restraint manufacturers interested in improving restraint design for young occupants as well as researchers and other stakeholders interested in reducing the incidence of restraint misuse among children.

Impact of a stroke unit on length of hospital stay and in-hospital case fatality

Background and Purpose Randomized trials have demonstrated reduced morbidity and mortality with stroke unit care; however, the effect on length of stay, and hence the economic benefit, is less well-defined. In 2001, a multidisciplinary stroke unit was opened at our institution. We observed whether a stroke unit reduces length of stay and in-hospital case fatality when compared to admission to a general neurology/medical ward. Methods A retrospective study of 2 cohorts in the Foothills Medical Center in Calgary was conducted using administrative databases. We compared a cohort of stroke patients managed on general neurology/medical wards before 2001, with a similar cohort of stroke patients managed on a stroke unit after 2003. The length of stay was dichotomized after being centered to 7 days and the Charlson Index was dichotomized for analysis. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare the length of stay and case fatality in 2 cohorts, adjusted for age, gender, and patient comorbid conditions defined by the Charlson Index. Results Average length of stay for patients on a stroke unit (n=2461) was 15 days vs 19 days for patients managed on general neurology/medical wards (n=1567). The proportion of patients with length of stay >7 days on general neurology/medical wards was 53.8% vs 44.4% on the stroke unit (difference 9.4%; P<0.0001). The adjusted odds of a length of stay >7 days was reduced by 30% (P<0.0001) on a stroke unit compared to general neurology/medical wards. Overall in-hospital case fatality was reduced by 4.5% with stroke unit care. Conclusions We observed a reduced length of stay and reduced in-hospital case-fatality in a stroke unit compared to general neurology/medical wards.

Predicting final disposition after stroke using the Orpington Prognostic Score

Background: Prediction of outcome after stroke is important for triage decisions, prognostic estimates for family and for appropriate resource utilization. Prognostication must be timely and simply applied. Several scales have shown good prognostic value. In Calgary, the Orpington Prognostic Score (OPS) has been used to predict outcome as an aid to rehabilitation triage. However, the OPS has not been assessed at one week for predictive capability. Methods: Among patients admitted to a sub-acute stroke unit, OPS from the first week were examined to determine if any correlation existed between final disposition after rehabilitation and first week score. The predictive validity of the OPS at one week was compared to National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score at 24 hours using logistic regression and receiver operator characteristics analysis. The primary outcome was final disposition after discharge from the stroke unit if the patient went directly home, or died, or from the inpatient rehabilitation unit. Results: The first week OPS was highly predictive of final disposition. However, no major advantage in using the first week OPS was observed when compared to 24h NIHSS score. Both scales were equally predictive of final disposition of stroke patients, post rehabilitation. Conclusion: The first week OPS can be used to predict final outcome. The NIHSS at 24h provides the same prognostic information.

Smoke and mirrors in trade disputes will harm public health

The 2014 World Cancer Report, issued by the World Health Organisation (WHO), indicates that the number of new cancer cases has reached an all-time high. On the 19 May 2014, Dr Margaret Chan, the Director-General of the WHO, gave a stirring speech to the 67th Health Assembly on the heavy health burden associated with cancer. Chan was particularly interested in public health measures designed to combat the global tobacco epidemic...

The empire of cancer: Gene patents and cancer voices

In his book, The Emperor of All Maladies, Siddhartha Mukherjee writes a history of cancer — "It is a chronicle of an ancient disease — once a clandestine, 'whispered-about' illness — that has metamorphosed into a lethal shape-shifting entity imbued with such penetrating metaphorical, medical, scientific, and political potency that cancer is often described as the defining plague of our generation." Increasingly, an important theme in the history of cancer is the role of law, particularly in the field of intellectual property law. It is striking that a number of contemporary policy debates over intellectual property and public health have concerned cancer research, diagnosis, and treatment. In the area of access to essential medicines, there has been much debate over Novartis’ patent application in respect of Glivec, a treatment for leukaemia. India’s Supreme Court held that the Swiss company’s patent application violated a safeguard provision in India’s patent law designed to stop evergreening. In the field of tobacco control, the Australian Government introduced plain packaging for tobacco products in order to address the health burdens associated with the tobacco epidemic. This regime was successfully defended in the High Court of Australia. In the area of intellectual property and biotechnology, there have been significant disputes over the Utah biotechnology company Myriad Genetics and its patents in respect of genetic testing for BRCA1 and BRCA2, which are related to breast cancer and ovarian cancer. The Federal Court of Australia handed down a decision on the validity of Myriad Genetics’ patent in respect of genetic testing for BRCA1 in February 2013. The Supreme Court of the United States heard a challenge to the validity of Myriad Genetics’ patents in this area in April 2013, and handed down a judgment in July 2013. Such disputes have involved tensions between intellectual property rights, and public health. This article focuses upon one of these important test cases involving intellectual property, public health, and cancer research. In June 2010, Cancer Voices Australia and Yvonne D’Arcy brought an action in the Federal Court of Australia against the validity of a BRCA1 patent — held by Myriad Genetics Inc, the Centre de Recherche du Chul, the Cancer Institute of Japan and Genetic Technologies Limited. Yvonne D’Arcy — a Brisbane woman who has had treatment for breast cancer — maintained: "I believe that what they are doing is morally and ethically corrupt and that big companies should not control any parts of the human body." She observed: "For my daughter, I've had her have [sic] mammograms, etc, because of me but I would still like her to be able to have the test to see if the mutation gene is in there from me." The applicants made the following arguments: "Genes and the information represented by human gene sequences are products of nature universally present in each individual, and the information content of a human gene sequence is fixed. Genetic variations or mutations are products of nature. The isolation of the BRCA1 gene mutation from the human body constitutes no more than a medical or scientific discovery of a naturally occurring phenomenon and does not give rise to a patentable invention." The applicants also argued that "the alleged invention is not a patentable invention in that, so far as claimed in claims 1–3, it is not a manner of manufacture within the meaning of s 6 of the Statute of Monopolies". The applicants suggested that "the alleged invention is a mere discovery". Moreover, the applicants contended that "the alleged invention of each of claims 1-3 is not a patentable invention because they are claims for biological processes for the generation of human beings". The applicants, though, later dropped the argument that the patent claims related to biological processes for the generation of human beings. In February 2013, Nicholas J of the Federal Court of Australia considered the case brought by Cancer Voices Australia and Yvonne D’Arcy against Myriad Genetics. The judge presented the issues in the case, as follows: "The issue that arises in this case is of considerable importance. It relates to the patentability of genes, or gene sequences, and the practice of 'gene patenting'. Briefly stated, the issue to be decided is whether under the Patents Act 1990 (Cth) a valid patent may be granted for a claim that covers naturally occurring nucleic acid — either deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) or ribonucleic acid (RNA) — that has been 'isolated'". In this context, the word "isolated" implies that naturally occurring nucleic acid found in the cells of the human body, whether it be DNA or RNA, has been removed from the cellular environment in which it naturally exists and separated from other cellular components also found there. The genes found in the human body are made of nucleic acid. The particular gene with which the patent in suit is concerned (BRCA1) is a human breast and ovarian cancer disposing gene. Various mutations that may be present in this gene have been linked to various forms of cancer including breast cancer and ovarian cancer.' The judge held in this particular case that Myriad Genetics’ patent claims were a "manner of manufacture" under s 6 of the Statute of Monopolies and s 18(1)(a) of the Patents Act 1990 (Cth). The matter is currently under appeal in the Full Court of the Federal Court of Australia. This article interprets the dispute over Myriad Genetics in light of the scholarly work of Nobel Laureate Professor Joseph Stiglitz on inequality. Such work has significant explanatory power in the context of intellectual property and biotechnology. First, Stiglitz has contended that "societal inequality was a result not just of the laws of economics, but also of how we shape the economy — through politics, including through almost every aspect of our legal system". Stiglitz is concerned that "our intellectual property regime … contributes needlessly to the gravest form of inequality." He maintains: "The right to life should not be contingent on the ability to pay." Second, Stiglitz worries that "some of the most iniquitous aspects of inequality creation within our economic system are a result of 'rent-seeking': profits, and inequality, generated by manipulating social or political conditions to get a larger share of the economic pie, rather than increasing the size of that pie". He observes that "the most iniquitous aspect of this wealth appropriation arises when the wealth that goes to the top comes at the expense of the bottom." Third, Stiglitz comments: "When the legal regime governing intellectual property rights is designed poorly, it facilitates rent-seeking" and "the result is that there is actually less innovation and more inequality." He is concerned that intellectual property regimes "create monopoly rents that impede access to health both create inequality and hamper growth more generally." Finally, Stiglitz has recommended: "Government-financed research, foundations, and the prize system … are alternatives, with major advantages, and without the inequality-increasing disadvantages of the current intellectual property rights system.’" This article provides a critical analysis of the Australian litigation and debate surrounding Myriad Genetics’ patents in respect of genetic testing for BRCA1. First, it considers the ruling of Nicholas J in the Federal Court of Australia that Myriad Genetics’ patent was a manner of manufacture as it related to an artificially created state of affairs, and not mere products of nature. Second, it examines the policy debate over gene patents in Australia, and its relevance to the litigation involving Myriad Genetics. Third, it examines comparative law, and contrasts the ruling by Nicholas J in the Federal Court of Australia with developments in the United States, Canada, and the European Union. Fourth, this piece considers the reaction to the decision of Nicholas at first instance in Australia. Fifth, the article assesses the prospects of an appeal to the Full Federal Court of Australia over the Myriad Genetics’ patents. Finally, this article observes that, whatever happens in respect of litigation against Myriad Genetics, there remains controversy over Genetic Technologies Limited. The Melbourne firm has been aggressively licensing and enforcing its related patents on non-coding DNA and genomic mapping.

Ability to discriminate between healthy and low back pain sufferers using ultrasound during maximum lumbar extension

Objective To analyze the ability to discriminate between healthy individuals and individuals with chronic nonspecific low back pain (CNLBP) by measuring the relation between patient-reported outcomes and objective clinical outcome measures of the erector spinae (ES) muscles using an ultrasound during maximal isometric lumbar extension. Design Cross-sectional study with screening and diagnostic tests with no blinded comparison. Setting University laboratory. Participants Healthy individuals (n=33) and individuals with CNLBP (n=33). Interventions Each subject performed an isometric lumbar extension. With the variables measured, a discriminate analysis was performed using a value ≥6 in the Roland and Morris disability questionnaire (RMDQ) as the grouping variable. Then, a logistic regression with the functional and architectural variables was performed. A new index was obtained from each subject value input in the discriminate multivariate analysis. Main Outcome Measures Morphologic muscle variables of the ES muscle were measured through ultrasound images. The reliability of the measures was calculated through intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). The relation between patient-reported outcomes and objective clinical outcome measures was analyzed using a discriminate function from standardized values of the variables and an analysis of the reliability of the ultrasound measurement. Results The reliability tests show an ICC value >.95 for morphologic and functional variables. The independent variables included in the analysis explained 42% (P=.003) of the dependent variable variance. Conclusions The relation between objective variables (electromyography, thickness, pennation angle) and a subjective variable (RMDQ ≥6) and the capacity of this relation to identify CNLBP within a group of healthy subjects is moderate. These results should be considered by clinicians when treating this type of patient in clinical practice.

Adolescent self-reported physical activity and autonomy: A case for constrained and structured environments?

The provision of autonomy supportive environments that promote physical activity engagement have become popular in contemporary youth settings. However, questions remain about whether adolescent perceptions of their autonomy have implications for physical activity. The purpose of this investigation was to examine the association between adolescents’ self-reported physical activity and their perceived autonomy. Participants (n = 384 adolescents) aged between 12 and 15 years were recruited from six secondary schools in metropolitan Brisbane, Australia. Self-reported measures of physical activity and autonomy were obtained. Logistic regression with inverse probability weights were used to examine the association between autonomy and the odds of meeting youth physical activity guidelines. Autonomy (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.49-0.76) and gender (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.46-0.83) were negatively associated with meeting physical activity guidelines. However, the model explained only a small amount of the variation in whether youth in this sample met physical activity guidelines (R2 = 0.023). For every 1 unit decrease in autonomy (on an index from 1 to 5), participants were 1.64 times more likely to meet physical activity guidelines. The findings, which are at odds with several previous studies, suggest that interventions designed to facilitate youth physical activity should limit opportunities for youth to make independent decisions about their engagement. However, the small amount of variation explained by the predictors in the model is a caveat, and should be considered prior to applying such suggestions in practical settings. Future research should continue to examine a larger age range, longitudinal observational or intervention studies to examine assertions of causality, as well as objective measurement of physical activity.

Predicting the need for adaptive radiotherapy in head and neck cancer

Background and purpose Adaptive radiotherapy (ART) can account for the dosimetric impact of anatomical change in head and neck cancer patients; however it can be resource intensive. Consequently, it is imperative that patients likely to require ART are identified. The purpose of this study was to find predictive factors that identify oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPC) and nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients more likely to need ART. Materials and methods One hundred and ten patients with OPC or NPC were analysed. Patient demographics and tumour characteristics were compared between patients who were replanned and those that were not. Factors found to be significant were included in logistic regression models. Risk profiles were developed from these models. A dosimetric analysis was performed. Results Nodal disease stage, pre-treatment largest involved node size, diagnosis and initial weight (categorised in 2 groups) were identified as significant for inclusion in the model. Two models were found to be significant (p = 0.001), correctly classifying 98.2% and 96.1% of patients respectively. Three ART risk profiles were developed. Conclusion Predictive factors identifying OPC or NPC patients more likely to require ART were reported. A risk profile approach could facilitate the effective implementation of ART into radiotherapy departments through forward planning and appropriate resource allocation.

Females as mobile resources: communal roosts promote the adoption of lek breeding in a temperate bat

Males of lek-breeding species defend clustered territories from which they display to visiting females. However, the mechanisms leading to the adoption of clustered male display sites are often unknown. In this study, we examined the possibility of a resource-based lek in New Zealand’s lesser short-tailed bat (Mystacina tuberculata) (Mammalia: Chiroptera), by assessing the placement of “singing roosts” used by males in relation to communal roosting sites used by females. The “resource-based lek” model posits that males settle near resources required by females to increase female encounter rates. For most bat species, where females are highly mobile and widely dispersed across landscapes while foraging, communal daytime roosts dominated by females may represent such a resource. Through use of video footage, spatial analyses of singing-roost locations, and passive-integrated transponder tags we confirmed that M. tuberculata employs a lek mating system. We found that male singing roosts were significantly clustered in space, were defended by resident individuals, and were visited by females (who did not receive resources from males) for mating purposes. Transponder records also indicated that some singing roosts were shared between multiple males. Spatial logistic regression indicated that singing-roost locations were associated with communal roosting sites. Communal roosts are selected based on criteria independent of the locations of singing roosts, suggesting that males responded to the location of communal roosts and not the reverse. Mystacina tuberculata thus provides evidence of a resource-based lek, and is only the second bat species worldwide confirmed to use a lek-mating system.