Estimating equations for removal data analysis

We consider the problem of estimating a population size from successive catches taken during a removal experiment and propose two estimating functions approaches, the traditional quasi-likelihood (TQL) approach for dependent observations and the conditional quasi-likelihood (CQL) approach using the conditional mean and conditional variance of the catch given previous catches. Asymptotic covariance of the estimates and the relationship between the two methods are derived. Simulation results and application to the catch data from smallmouth bass show that the proposed estimating functions perform better than other existing methods, especially in the presence of overdispersion.

Modelling growth rate of Penaeus monodon Fabricius in intensively managed ponds: effects of temperature, pond age and stocking density

Records of shrimp growth and water quality made during 12 crops from each of 48 ponds, over a period of 6.5 years, were provided by a Queensland, Australia, commercial shrimp farm, These data were analysed with a new growth model derived from the Gompertz model. The results indicate that water temperature, mortality and pond age significantly affect growth rates. After 180 days, shrimp reach 34 g at constant 30 degrees C, but only 15 g after the same amount of time at 20 degrees C. Mortality, through thinning the density of shrimp in the ponds, increased the growth rate, but the effect is small. With continual production, growth rates at first remained steady, then appeared to decrease for the sixth and seventh crop, after which they have increased steadily with each crop. It appears that conservative pond management, together with a gradual improvement in husbandry techniques, particularly feed management, brought about this change. This has encouraging implications for the long-term sustainability of the farming methods used. The growth model can be used to predict productivity, and hence, profitability, of new aquaculture locations or new production strategies.

Development and Simulation of a Variable Rate Controller for an Air search and Air Sampling Unmanned Aerial System

This report describes the development and simulation of a variable rate controller for a 6-degree of freedom nonlinear model. The variable rate simulation model represents an off the shelf autopilot. Flight experiment involves risks and can be expensive. Therefore a dynamic model to understand the performance characteristics of the UAS in mission simulation before actual flight test or to obtain parameters needed for the flight is important. The control and guidance is implemented in Simulink. The report tests the use of the model for air search and air sampling path planning. A GUI in which a set of mission scenarios, in which two experts (mission expert, i.e. air sampling or air search and an UAV expert) interact, is presented showing the benefits of the method.

Estimating cell diffusivity and cell proliferation rate by interpreting IncuCyte ZOOM™ assay data using the Fisher-Kolmogorov model

Background: Standard methods for quantifying IncuCyte ZOOM™ assays involve measurements that quantify how rapidly the initially-vacant area becomes re-colonised with cells as a function of time. Unfortunately, these measurements give no insight into the details of the cellular-level mechanisms acting to close the initially-vacant area. We provide an alternative method enabling us to quantify the role of cell motility and cell proliferation separately. To achieve this we calibrate standard data available from IncuCyte ZOOM™ images to the solution of the Fisher-Kolmogorov model. Results: The Fisher-Kolmogorov model is a reaction-diffusion equation that has been used to describe collective cell spreading driven by cell migration, characterised by a cell diffusivity, D, and carrying capacity limited proliferation with proliferation rate, λ, and carrying capacity density, K. By analysing temporal changes in cell density in several subregions located well-behind the initial position of the leading edge we estimate λ and K. Given these estimates, we then apply automatic leading edge detection algorithms to the images produced by the IncuCyte ZOOM™ assay and match this data with a numerical solution of the Fisher-Kolmogorov equation to provide an estimate of D. We demonstrate this method by applying it to interpret a suite of IncuCyte ZOOM™ assays using PC-3 prostate cancer cells and obtain estimates of D, λ and K. Comparing estimates of D, λ and K for a control assay with estimates of D, λ and K for assays where epidermal growth factor (EGF) is applied in varying concentrations confirms that EGF enhances the rate of scratch closure and that this stimulation is driven by an increase in D and λ, whereas K is relatively unaffected by EGF. Conclusions: Our approach for estimating D, λ and K from an IncuCyte ZOOM™ assay provides more detail about cellular-level behaviour than standard methods for analysing these assays. In particular, our approach can be used to quantify the balance of cell migration and cell proliferation and, as we demonstrate, allow us to quantify how the addition of growth factors affects these processes individually.

Special Issue on Spatial Moment Techniques for Modelling Biological Processes

Over the last two decades, there has been an increasing awareness of, and interest in, the use of spatial moment techniques to provide insight into a range of biological and ecological processes. Models that incorporate spatial moments can be viewed as extensions of mean-field models. These mean-field models often consist of systems of classical ordinary differential equations and partial differential equations, whose derivation, at some point, hinges on the simplifying assumption that individuals in the underlying stochastic process encounter each other at a rate that is proportional to the average abundance of individuals. This assumption has several implications, the most striking of which is that mean-field models essentially neglect any impact of the spatial structure of individuals in the system. Moment dynamics models extend traditional mean-field descriptions by accounting for the dynamics of pairs, triples and higher n-tuples of individuals. This means that moment dynamics models can, to some extent, account for how the spatial structure affects the dynamics of the system in question.

Assessment of the underreporting rate of death cause data in Shandong province using capture-mark-recapture method [应用捕获再捕获方法评估山东省死因登记漏报率水平]

To evaluate the underreporting rate of death -cause data in Shandong province during 2012 to 2013 by capture -mark -recapture method and to provide the base for health strategy. Methods All counties were divided into 5 stratifications according the death rates of 2012, and 14 counties were selected, then 3 towns or streets were selected in each country, 10 villages or neighborhood committees were selected in each town （street）. The death data collected from security bureau and civil affairs bureau were compared with the reporting death data from the National Cause of Death Surveillance, and the underreporting rate was calculated. Results In present study, 6 929 death cases were collected, it was found that 1 556 cases were underreported. The death cases estimated by CMR method were 6 227 cases （95%CI: 7 593-7 651）, and the average underreporting rate was 23.15%. There were significantly differences between different stratifications （P<0.01）. The underreporting rate in 0-4 years old group was 56.93%, the male underreporting rate was 22.31% and the female underreporting rate was 24.09%. There was no significant difference between male and female groups （P>0.05）. Conclusion There is an obvious underreport in the cause of death surveillance of Shandong province, and the underreporting rates are different among the 5 stratifications. The underreporting rate is higher in 0-4 years old group, and the investigation of the death cause surveillance for young residents is not perfect in some countries. The investigation quality of the death cause surveillance should be improved, increasing the integrity of the report data and adjusting the mortalities in different stratifications for obtaining a accurate mortality in Shandong province.

Power system stability implications from electromechanical wave propagation

Electromechanical wave propagation characterizes the first-swing dynamic response in a spatially delayed manner. This paper investigates the characteristics of this phenomenon in two-dimensional and one-dimensional power systems. In 2-D systems, the wave front expands as a ripple in a pond. In 1-D systems, the wave front is more concentrated, retains most of its magnitude, and travels like a pulse on a string. This large wave front is more impactful upon any weak link and easily causes transient instability in 1-D systems. The initial disturbance injects both high and low frequency components, but the lumped nature of realistic systems only permits the lower frequency components to propagate through. The kinetic energy split at a junction is equal to the generator inertia ratio in each branch in an idealized continuum system. This prediction is approximately valid in a realistic power system. These insights can enhance understanding and control of the traveling waves.

Physio-chemical assessment of beauty leaf (Calophyllum inophyllum) as second-generation biodiesel feedstock

Recently, second-generation (non-vegetable oil) feedstocks for biodiesel production are receiving significant attention due to the cost and social effects connected with utilising food products for the production of energy products. The Beauty leaf tree (Calophyllum inophyllum) is a potential source of non-edible oil for producing second-generation biodiesel because of its suitability for production in an extensive variety of atmospheric condition, easy cultivation, high fruit production rate, and the high oil content in the seed. In this study, oil was extracted from Beauty leaf tree seeds through three different oil extraction methods. The important physical and chemical properties of these extracted Beauty leaf oils were experimentally analysed and compared with other commercially available vegetable oils. Biodiesel was produced using a two-stage esterification process combining of an acid catalysed pre-esterification process and an alkali catalysed transesterification process. Fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) profiles and important physicochemical properties were experimentally measured and estimated using equations based on the FAME analysis. The quality of Beauty leaf biodiesels was assessed and compared with commercially available biodiesels through multivariate data analysis using PROMETHEE-GAIA software. The results show that mechanical extraction using a screw press produces oil at a low cost, however, results in low oil yields compared with chemical oil extraction. High pressure and temperature in the extraction process increase oil extraction performance. On the contrary, this process increases the free fatty acid content in the oil. A clear difference was found in the physical properties of Beauty leaf oils, which eventually affected the oil to biodiesel conversion process. However, Beauty leaf oils methyl esters (biodiesel) were very consistent physicochemical properties and able to meet almost all indicators of biodiesel standards. Overall this study found that Beauty leaf is a suitable feedstock for producing second-generation biodiesel in commercial scale. Therefore, the findings of this study are expected to serve as the basis for further development of Beauty leaf as a feedstock for industrial scale second-generation biodiesel production.

Rate capability of graphite materials as negative electrodes in lithium-ion capacitors

The lithium-ion exchange rate capability of various commercial graphite materials are evaluated using galvanostatic charge/discharge cycling in a half-cell configuration over a wide range of C-rates (0.1 similar to 60C). The results confirm that graphite is capable of de-intercalating stored charge at high rates, but has a poor intercalating rate capability. Decreasing the graphite coating thickness leads to a limited rate performance improvement of the electrode. Reducing the graphite particle size shows enhanced C-rate capability but with increased irreversible capacity loss (ICL). It is demonstrated that the rate of intercalation of lithium-ions into the graphite is significantly limited compared with the corresponding rate of de-intercalation at high C-rates. For the successful utilisation of commercially available conventional graphite as a negative electrode in a lithium-ion capacitor (LIC), its intercalation rate capability needs to be improved or oversized to accommodate high charge rates.

Exploring metrics to express energy expenditure of physical activity in youth

Background Several approaches have been used to express energy expenditure in youth, but no consensus exists as to which best normalizes data for the wide range of ages and body sizes across a range of physical activities. This study examined several common metrics for expressing energy expenditure to determine whether one metric can be used for all healthy children. Such a metric could improve our ability to further advance the Compendium of Physical Activities for Youth. Methods A secondary analysis of oxygen uptake (VO2) data obtained from five sites was completed, that included 947 children ages 5 to 18 years, who engaged in 14 different activities. Resting metabolic rate (RMR) was computed based on Schofield Equations [Hum Nutr Clin Nut. 39(Suppl 1), 1985]. Absolute oxygen uptake (ml.min-1), oxygen uptake per kilogram body mass (VO2 in ml.kg-1.min-1), net oxygen uptake (VO2 – resting metabolic rate), allometric scaled oxygen uptake (VO2 in ml.kg-0.75.min-1) and YOUTH-MET (VO2.[resting VO2] -1) were calculated. These metrics were regressed with age, sex, height, and body mass. Results Net and allometric-scaled VO2, and YOUTH-MET were least associated with age, sex and physical characteristics. For moderate-to-vigorous intensity activities, allometric scaling was least related to age and sex. For sedentary and low-intensity activities, YOUTH-MET was least related to age and sex. Conclusions No energy expenditure metric completely eliminated the influence of age, physical characteristics, and sex. The Adult MET consistently overestimated EE. YOUTH-MET was better for expressing energy expenditure for sedentary and light activities, whereas allometric scaling was better for moderate and vigorous intensity activities. From a practical perspective, The YOUTH-MET may be the more feasible metric for improving of the Compendium of Physical Activities for Youth.

Experimental and numerical investigation of strain-rate-dependent behavior of kangaroo shoulder cartilage

This thesis introduces a new animal model, kangaroo, to biomechanical investigations of shoulder cartilage research. It examines the effect of cartilage structure and constituents on tissue behavior and its adaptation to mechanical loading. In doing so, the study explains the relationship of tissue's functional behaviors to its structure and constituents which has important implications for tissue engineering strategies catering joint specific cartilage tissue generation.

Finite element modelling of lamb wave propagation in prestress concrete and effect of the prestress force on the wave’s characteristic

In order to assess the structural reliability of bridges, an accurate and cost effective Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) technology is required to ensure their safe and reliable operation. Over 60% of the Australian National Highway System is prestressed concrete (PSC) bridges according to the Bureau of Transport and Communication Economics (1997). Most of the in-service bridges are more than 30 years old and may experience a heavier traffic load than their original intended level. Use of Ultrasonic waves is continuously increasing for (NDE) and Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) in civil, aerospace, electrical, mechanical applications. Ultrasonic Lamb waves are becoming more popular for NDE because it can propagate long distance and reach hidden regions with less energy loses. The purpose of this study is to numerically quantify prestress force (PSF) of (PSC) beam using the fundamental theory of acoustic-elasticity. A three-dimension finite element modelling approach is set up to perform parametric studies in order to better understand how the lamb wave propagation in PSC beam is affected by changing in the PSF level. Results from acoustic-elastic measurement on prestressed beam are presented, showing the feasibility of the lamb wave for PSF evaluation in PSC bridges.

Carbon dioxide emissions in the short run: The rate and sources of economic growth matter

This paper investigates the short-run effects of economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels and the manufacture of cement for 189 countries over the period 1961-2010. Contrary to what has previously been reported, we conclude that there is no strong evidence that the emissions-income elasticity is larger during individual years of economic expansion as compared to recession. Significant evidence of asymmetry emerges when effects over longer periods are considered. We find that economic growth tends to increase emissions not only in the same year, but also in subsequent years. Delayed effects - especially noticeable in the road transport sector - mean that emissions tend to grow more quickly after booms and more slowly after recessions. Emissions are more sensitive to fluctuations in industrial value added than agricultural value added, with services being an intermediate case. On the expenditure side, growth in consumption and growth in investment have similar implications for national emissions. External shocks have a relatively large emissions impact, and the short-run emissions-income elasticity does not appear to decline as incomes increase. Economic growth and emissions have been more tightly linked in fossil-fuel rich countries.

Factors influencing kinetic and equilibrium behaviour of sodium ion exchange with strong acid cation resin

This study reports an investigation of the ion exchange treatment of sodium chloride solutions in relation to use of resin technology for applications such as desalination of brackish water. In particular, a strong acid cation (SAC) resin (DOW Marathon C) was studied to determine its capacity for sodium uptake and to evaluate the fundamentals of the ion exchange process involved. Key questions to answer included: impact of resin identity; best models to simulate the kinetics and equilibrium exchange behaviour of sodium ions; difference between using linear least squares (LLS) and non-linear least squares (NLLS) methods for data interpretation; and, effect of changing the type of anion in solution which accompanied the sodium species. Kinetic studies suggested that the exchange process was best described by a pseudo first order rate expression based upon non-linear least squares analysis of the test data. Application of the Langmuir Vageler isotherm model was recommended as it allowed confirmation that experimental conditions were sufficient for maximum loading of sodium ions to occur. The Freundlich expression best fitted the equilibrium data when analysing the information by a NLLS approach. In contrast, LLS methods suggested that the Langmuir model was optimal for describing the equilibrium process. The Competitive Langmuir model which considered the stoichiometric nature of ion exchange process, estimated the maximum loading of sodium ions to be 64.7 g Na/kg resin. This latter value was comparable to sodium ion capacities for SAC resin published previously. Inherent discrepancies involved when using linearized versions of kinetic and isotherm equations were illustrated, and despite their widespread use, the value of this latter approach was questionable. The equilibrium behaviour of sodium ions form sodium fluoride solution revealed that the sodium ions were now more preferred by the resin compared to the situation with sodium chloride. The solution chemistry of hydrofluoric acid was suggested as promoting the affinity of the sodium ions to the resin.

A curve shortening flow rule for closed embedded plane curves with a prescribed rate of change in enclosed area

Motivated by a problem from fluid mechanics, we consider a generalization of the standard curve shortening flow problem for a closed embedded plane curve such that the area enclosed by the curve is forced to decrease at a prescribed rate. Using formal asymptotic and numerical techniques, we derive possible extinction shapes as the curve contracts to a point, dependent on the rate of decreasing area; we find there is a wider class of extinction shapes than for standard curve shortening, for which initially simple closed curves are always asymptotically circular. We also provide numerical evidence that self-intersection is possible for non-convex initial conditions, distinguishing between pinch-off and coalescence of the curve interior.