The importance of modelling heterogeneity in complex disease: application to NIMH Schizophrenia Genetics Initiative data

As for other complex diseases, linkage analyses of schizophrenia (SZ) have produced evidence for numerous chromosomal regions, with inconsistent results reported across studies. The presence of locus heterogeneity appears likely and may reduce the power of linkage analyses if homogeneity is assumed. In addition, when multiple heterogeneous datasets are pooled, inter-sample variation in the proportion of linked families (alpha) may diminish the power of the pooled sample to detect susceptibility loci, in spite of the larger sample size obtained. We compare the significance of linkage findings obtained using allele-sharing LOD scores (LOD(exp))-which assume homogeneity-and heterogeneity LOD scores (HLOD) in European American and African American NIMH SZ families. We also pool these two samples and evaluate the relative power of the LOD(exp) and two different heterogeneity statistics. One of these (HLOD-P) estimates the heterogeneity parameter alpha only in aggregate data, while the second (HLOD-S) determines alpha separately for each sample. In separate and combined data, we show consistently improved performance of HLOD scores over LOD(exp). Notably, genome-wide significant evidence for linkage is obtained at chromosome 10p in the European American sample using a recessive HLOD score. When the two samples are combined, linkage at the 10p locus also achieves genome-wide significance under HLOD-S, but not HLOD-P. Using HLOD-S, improved evidence for linkage was also obtained for a previously reported region on chromosome 15q. In linkage analyses of complex disease, power may be maximised by routinely modelling locus heterogeneity within individual datasets, even when multiple datasets are combined to form larger samples.

Impacts of El Niño southern oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh

Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. Several studies examined the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in dengue incidence. However, the role of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a coupled ocean atmosphere phenomenon in the Indian Ocean, which controls the summer monsoon rainfall in the Indian region, remains unexplored. Here, we examined the effects of ENSO and IOD on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. According to the wavelet coherence analysis, there was a very weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence, but a highly significant coherence between dengue incidence and local climate variables (temperature and rainfall). However, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) revealed that the association between dengue incidence and ENSO or IOD were comparatively stronger after adjustment for local climate variables, seasonality and trend. The estimated effects were nonlinear for both ENSO and IOD with higher relative risks at higher ENSO and IOD. The weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence might be driven by the stronger effects of local climate variables such as temperature and rainfall. Further research is required to disentangle these effects.

Social work and complex care systems: The case of people hospitalised with a disability

Health and hospital system reforms prioritise efficiency. However, initiatives can impact on people with new or existing disabilities who require time to maximise functional independence. With greater demands for shorter hospital stays social workers face increasing pressure to facilitate discharge. This paper reports findings from research identifying factors contributing to extended stays for adults with disabilities. We sought to better understand patient characteristics and discharge planning challenges by analysing a clinical data set of 80 patients and qualitative interviews with five experienced hospital social workers. Three key factors are identified: issues around rehabilitation services; assessment and planning for community care; and availability of and access to discharge options. Strategies to reduce length of stay are reported. We argue that building collaborative partnerships and working across multiple, complex systems and disciplines are vital to ensure these patients access appropriate community-based resources within the current health reform environment.

Adaptive frequency scaled wavelet packet decomposition for frog call classification

Environmental changes have put great pressure on biological systems leading to the rapid decline of biodiversity. To monitor this change and protect biodiversity, animal vocalizations have been widely explored by the aid of deploying acoustic sensors in the field. Consequently, large volumes of acoustic data are collected. However, traditional manual methods that require ecologists to physically visit sites to collect biodiversity data are both costly and time consuming. Therefore it is essential to develop new semi-automated and automated methods to identify species in automated audio recordings. In this study, a novel feature extraction method based on wavelet packet decomposition is proposed for frog call classification. After syllable segmentation, the advertisement call of each frog syllable is represented by a spectral peak track, from which track duration, dominant frequency and oscillation rate are calculated. Then, a k-means clustering algorithm is applied to the dominant frequency, and the centroids of clustering results are used to generate the frequency scale for wavelet packet decomposition (WPD). Next, a new feature set named adaptive frequency scaled wavelet packet decomposition sub-band cepstral coefficients is extracted by performing WPD on the windowed frog calls. Furthermore, the statistics of all feature vectors over each windowed signal are calculated for producing the final feature set. Finally, two well-known classifiers, a k-nearest neighbour classifier and a support vector machine classifier, are used for classification. In our experiments, we use two different datasets from Queensland, Australia (18 frog species from commercial recordings and field recordings of 8 frog species from James Cook University recordings). The weighted classification accuracy with our proposed method is 99.5% and 97.4% for 18 frog species and 8 frog species respectively, which outperforms all other comparable methods.

Superhydrophobic fabrics for oil-water separation based on the metal organic charge transfer complex CuTCNAQ

This work reports on the fabrication of a superhydrophobic nylon textile based on the organic charge transfer complex CuTCNAQ (TCNAQ = 11,11,12,12-tetracyanoanthraquinodimethane). The nylon fabric that is metallized with copper undergoes a spontaneous chemical reaction with TCNAQ dissolved in acetonitrile to form nanorods of CuTCNAQ that are intertwined over the entire surface of the fabric. This creates the necessary micro and nanoscale roughness that is required for the Cassie-Baxter state thereby achieving a superhydrophobic/superoleophilic surface without the need for a fluorinated surface. The material is characterised with SEM, FT-IR and XPS spectroscopy and investigated for its ability to separate oil and water in two modes, namely under gravity and as an absorbent. It is found that the fabric can separate dichloromethane, olive oil and crude oil from water and in fact reduce the water content of the oil during the separation process. The fabric is reusable and tolerant to conditions such as seawater, hydrochloric acid and extensive time periods on the shelf. Given that CuTCNAQ is a copper based semiconductor may also open up the possibility of other applications in areas such as photocatalysis and antibacterial applications.

Assessing the integrated sustainability of a public rental housing project from the perspective of complex eco-system

Public rental housing (PRH) projects are the mainstream of China's new affordable housing policies, and their integrated sustainability has a far-reaching effect on medium-low income families' well-being and social stability. However, there are few quantitative researches on the integrated sustainability of PRH projects. Our study tries to fill this gap through proposing an assessment model of the integrated sustainability for PRH projects. First, this paper defines what the sustainability of a PRH project is. Second, after constructing the sustainable system of a PRH project from the perspective of complex eco-system, the paper explores the internal operation mechanism and the coupling mechanism among the ecological, economic and social subsystems. Third, it identifies fourteen indices to represent the sustainability system of a PRH project, including six indices of ecological subsystem, five of economic subsystem and three of social subsystem. Fourth, it qualifies the weights of three subsystems and their internal representative indices. In addition, an assessment model is established through expert surveys and analytic network process (ANP). Finally, the paper carries out an empirical research on a PRH project in Nanjing city of China, followed by suggestions to enhance the integrated sustainability. The sustainability system and its evaluation model proposed in this paper are concise and easy to understand and can provide a theoretical foundation and a scientific basis for the evaluation and optimization of PRH projects.

R U there yet? using virtual classrooms to transform teaching practice

Access to quality higher education is challenging for many Western Australians that live outside the metropolitan area. In 2010, the School of Education moved to flexible delivery of a fully online Bachelor of Education degree for their non -metropolitan students. The new model of delivery allows access for students from any location provided they have a computer and an internet connection. A number of academic staff had previously used an asynchronous environment to deliver learning modules housed within a learning management system (LMS) but had not used synchronous software with their students. To enhance the learning environment and to provide high quality learning experiences to students learning at a distance, the adoption of synchronous software (Elluminate Live) was introduced. This software is a real-time virtual classroom environment that allows for communication through Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) and videoconferencing, along with a large number of collaboration tools to engage learners. This research paper reports on the integration of a live e-learning solution into the current LMS environment. Qualitative data were collected from academic staff through informal interviews and participant observation. The findings discuss (i) perceived level of support; (ii) identification of strategies used to create an effective online teacher presence; (iii) the perceived impact on the students' learning outcomes; and (iv) guidelines for professional development to enhance pedagogy within the live e-learning environment.

Curious hybrids: Creating 'not-quite' beings to explore possible childhoods

Communications between adults and young children can expose different ideas and opinions. Adults and children have different capacities to speak, these discursive spaces can become filled with assumptions, stereotyping and conventional thinking about power and agency. If communication shifts away from the purely discursive, what might be exposed about the explorations, investigations and fantasies adults and children indulge in? Some time ago my young daughter obsessively drew hybrid beings. Created from mixtures of animal, object, human and creature forms, these beings, which are ‘not-quite’, are becoming, able to transform via myriad mutations. We agreed to collaborate and draw additional hybrid beings to experiment with becoming-other through complex entanglements of forms, to complicate, morph and (trans)form from our human selves to hybrid others. The ‘not- quite-ness’ of our monstrous hybrids subvert the conventions of ‘being’ and prompt contemplations about childhood subjectivities, identities, conventionalities and actively interrogate the assumptive knowledges and subjectifications that are held about young children in early childhood professional and academic systems.

Lidar heat map based channel sounding for complex wireless environments

This thesis is a development of a methodology to predict the radio transmitter signal attenuation, via vertical density profiling of digitised objects, through the use of Light Detection and Ranging (LiDaR) measurements. The resulting map of indexed signal attenuation is useful for dynamic radio transmitter placement within the geospatial data set without expensive and tedious radio measurements.

Dancing practices from multiple perspectives: the increasingly complex role of the contemporary dancer

This paper will discuss the complexities of the role of contemporary dancer in this current epoch, with a particular focus on the multiple identities dancers embody within dance practice and how these accumulate to form a creative self-in-process or ‘moving identity’. Wider issues, such as training will be explored questioning how technical skills can be imparted alongside autonomous learning approaches to ensure that dancers are prepared to negotiate the entrepreneurial ecology of various dance sectors. Furthermore, the paper will examine the shifting relationship between choreographer and dancer from hierarchical to co-creative including how, in spite of the often collaborative nature of dance creation, the marketplace continues to celebrate the singular authorial position of the choreographer. Each of these elements will reflect back the complex issues of agency and creative self-hood that dancers must negotiate in an increasingly diverse and changeable arts environment.

The ghost in the city industrial complex: Le Corbusier and the fascist theory of Urbanisme

Le Corbusier participated in an urban dialogue with the first group in France to call itself fascist: the journalist Georges Valois’s militant Faisceau des Combattants et Producteurs (1925-1927), the “Blue Shirts,” inspired by the Italian “Fasci” of Mussolini. Le Corbusier’s portrait photograph materialised on the front cover of the January 1927 issue of the Faisceau League’s newspaper Le Nouveau Siècle edited by the former anarcho-syndicalist journalist Georges Valois, its leader, who fashioned himself as the French Mussolini. Le Corbusier was described in the Revue as one of les animateurs (the “organisers”) of the Party1 – meaning a member of the technical elite who would drive the Faisceau’s plans. On 1 May 1927, the Nouveau Siècle printed a full-page feature “Le Plan Voisin” on Le Corbusier’s 1922 redesign of Paris : the architect’s single-point perspective sketch appeared below an extract lifted from the architect’s original polemic Le Centre de Paris on the pages of Le Corbusier’s second book Urbanisme published two years earlier, a treatise on urbanism.2 Three weeks later, Le Corbusier presented a slide show of his urban plans at a fascist rally for the inauguration of the Faisceau’s new headquarters on the rue du faubourg Poissonniere, thereby crystalising the architect’s hallowed status in the league...

Managing uncertainty to improve the cost performance of complex infrastructure projects

There has been a recent spate of high profile infrastructure cost overruns in Australia and internationally. This is just the tip of a longer-term and more deeply-seated problem with initial budget estimating practice, well recognised in both academic research and industry reviews: the problem of uncertainty. A case study of the Sydney Opera House is used to identify and illustrate the key causal factors and system dynamics of cost overruns. It is conventionally the role of risk management to deal with such uncertainty, but the type and extent of the uncertainty involved in complex projects is shown to render established risk management techniques ineffective. This paper considers a radical advance on current budget estimating practice which involves a particular approach to statistical modelling complemented by explicit training in estimating practice. The statistical modelling approach combines the probability management techniques of Savage, which operate on actual distributions of values rather than flawed representations of distributions, and the data pooling technique of Skitmore, where the size of the reference set is optimised. Estimating training employs particular calibration development methods pioneered by Hubbard, which reduce the bias of experts caused by over-confidence and improve the consistency of subjective decision-making. A new framework for initial budget estimating practice is developed based on the combined statistical and training methods, with each technique being explained and discussed.

Using Bayesian networks to model surveillance in complex plant and animal health systems

In this chapter we consider biosecurity surveillance as part of a complex system comprising many different biological, environmental and human factors and their interactions. Modelling and analysis of surveillance strategies should take into account these complexities, and also facilitate the use and integration of the many types of different information that can provide insight into the system as a whole. After a brief discussion of a range of options, we focus on Bayesian networks for representing such complex systems. We summarize the features of Bayesian networks and describe these in the context of surveillance.

Interdependence between Greece and other European stock markets: A comparison of wavelet and VMD copula, and the portfolio implications

The interdependence of Greece and other European stock markets and the subsequent portfolio implications are examined in wavelet and variational mode decomposition domain. In applying the decomposition techniques, we analyze the structural properties of data and distinguish between short and long term dynamics of stock market returns. First, the GARCH-type models are fitted to obtain the standardized residuals. Next, different copula functions are evaluated, and based on the conventional information criteria and time varying parameter, Joe-Clayton copula is chosen to model the tail dependence between the stock markets. The short-run lower tail dependence time paths show a sudden increase in comovement during the global financial crises. The results of the long-run dependence suggest that European stock markets have higher interdependence with Greece stock market. Individual country’s Value at Risk (VaR) separates the countries into two distinct groups. Finally, the two-asset portfolio VaR measures provide potential markets for Greece stock market investment diversification.

IMIA working group on health record banking - How complex systems can cooperate towards having individual's consolidated data

This workshop aims at discussing alternative approaches to resolving the problem of health information fragmentation, partially resulting from difficulties of health complex systems to semantically interact at the information level. In principle, we challenge the current paradigm of keeping medical records where they were created and discuss an alternative approach in which an individual's health data can be maintained by new entities whose sole responsibility is the sustainability of individual-centric health records. In particular, we will discuss the unique characteristics of the European health information landscape. This workshop is also a business meeting of the IMIA Working Group on Health Record Banking.