Learning the learning rate for prediction with expert advice

Most standard algorithms for prediction with expert advice depend on a parameter called the learning rate. This learning rate needs to be large enough to fit the data well, but small enough to prevent overfitting. For the exponential weights algorithm, a sequence of prior work has established theoretical guarantees for higher and higher data-dependent tunings of the learning rate, which allow for increasingly aggressive learning. But in practice such theoretical tunings often still perform worse (as measured by their regret) than ad hoc tuning with an even higher learning rate. To close the gap between theory and practice we introduce an approach to learn the learning rate. Up to a factor that is at most (poly)logarithmic in the number of experts and the inverse of the learning rate, our method performs as well as if we would know the empirically best learning rate from a large range that includes both conservative small values and values that are much higher than those for which formal guarantees were previously available. Our method employs a grid of learning rates, yet runs in linear time regardless of the size of the grid.

What’s best for our lymphoedema patients? Have we lost the patient as an individual in the quest for good science?

In a recent issue of the Journal of Lymphoedema, Nickolaidis and Karlsson (2013) indicated that most of the standard treatments for lymphoedema patients were explored and developed early last century, and suggested that holistic assessment of the individual is critical for good outcomes, but that perhaps “less emphasis should be placed on manual lymphatic drainage (MLD) and more on compression, exercise and weight reduction.”

A Few Best Men

Like most of Stephan Elliott’s movies, A Few Best Men is difficult to discuss without focusing on the director himself. A wedding-gone-wrong comedy, A Few Best Men is Elliott’s first Australian feature film in seventeen years. After directing the low-budget crime-thriller Frauds (1993), Elliott achieved worldwide success as writer-director of the Oscar-winning road movie Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert (1994). A quirky and visually striking film about two drag-queens and a transsexual’s journey across the harsh Australian outback in a bus named Priscilla, the movie earned over US$70 million at the international box-office and became an instant Australian classic. Elliott’s career, however, self-destructed soon after...

Novel non-linear elastic structural analysis with generalised transverse element loads using a refined finite element

In the finite element modelling of structural frames, external loads such as wind loads, dead loads and imposed loads usually act along the elements rather than at the nodes only. Conventionally, when an element is subjected to these general transverse element loads, they are usually converted to nodal forces acting at the ends of the elements by either lumping or consistent load approaches. In addition, it is especially important for an element subjected to the first- and second-order elastic behaviour, to which the steel structure is critically prone to; in particular the thin-walled steel structures, when the stocky element section may be generally critical to the inelastic behaviour. In this sense, the accurate first- and second-order elastic displacement solutions of element load effect along an element is vitally crucial, but cannot be simulated using neither numerical nodal nor consistent load methods alone, as long as no equilibrium condition is enforced in the finite element formulation, which can inevitably impair the structural safety of the steel structure particularly. It can be therefore regarded as a unique element load method to account for the element load nonlinearly. If accurate displacement solution is targeted for simulating the first- and second-order elastic behaviour on an element on the basis of sophisticated non-linear element stiffness formulation, the numerous prescribed stiffness matrices must indispensably be used for the plethora of specific transverse element loading patterns encountered. In order to circumvent this shortcoming, the present paper proposes a numerical technique to include the transverse element loading in the non-linear stiffness formulation without numerous prescribed stiffness matrices, and which is able to predict structural responses involving the effect of first-order element loads as well as the second-order coupling effect between the transverse load and axial force in the element. This paper shows that the principle of superposition can be applied to derive the generalized stiffness formulation for element load effect, so that the form of the stiffness matrix remains unchanged with respect to the specific loading patterns, but with only the magnitude of the loading (element load coefficients) being needed to be adjusted in the stiffness formulation, and subsequently the non-linear effect on element loadings can be commensurate by updating the magnitude of element load coefficients through the non-linear solution procedures. In principle, the element loading distribution is converted into a single loading magnitude at mid-span in order to provide the initial perturbation for triggering the member bowing effect due to its transverse element loads. This approach in turn sacrifices the effect of element loading distribution except at mid-span. Therefore, it can be foreseen that the load-deflection behaviour may not be as accurate as those at mid-span, but its discrepancy is still trivial as proved. This novelty allows for a very useful generalised stiffness formulation for a single higher-order element with arbitrary transverse loading patterns to be formulated. Moreover, another significance of this paper is placed on shifting the nodal response (system analysis) to both nodal and element response (sophisticated element formulation). For the conventional finite element method, such as the cubic element, all accurate solutions can be only found at node. It means no accurate and reliable structural safety can be ensured within an element, and as a result, it hinders the engineering applications. The results of the paper are verified using analytical stability function studies, as well as with numerical results reported by independent researchers on several simple frames.

Performance dispersion for evidence-based classification of stationary throwers

Background There is a need for better understanding of the dispersion of classification-related variable to develop an evidence-based classification of athletes with a disability participating in stationary throwing events. Objectives The purposes of this study are (A) to describe tools designed to comprehend and represent the dispersion of the performance between successive classes, and (B) to present this dispersion for the elite male and female stationary shot-putters who participated in Beijing 2008 Paralympic Games. Study design Retrospective study Methods This study analysed a total of 479 attempts performed by 114 male and female stationary shot-putters in three F30s (F32-F34) and six F50s (F52-F58) classes during the course of eight events during Beijing 2008 Paralympic Games. Results The average differences of best performance were 1.46±0.46 m for males between F54 and F58 classes as well as 1.06±1.18 m for females between F55 and F58 classes. The results demonstrated a linear relationship between best performance and classification while revealing two male Gold Medallists in F33 and F52 classes were outliers. Conclusions This study confirms the benefits of the comparative matrices, performance continuum and dispersion plots to comprehend classification-related variables. The work presented here represents a stepping stone into biomechanical analyses of stationary throwers, particularly on the eve of the London 2012 Paralympic Games where new evidences could be gathered.

Special issue on best papers from the "BPM 2012" workshops

Business Process Management (BPM) (Dumas et al. 2013) investigates how organizations function and can be improved on the basis of their business processes. The starting point for BPM is that organizational performance is a function of process performance. Thus, BPM proposes a set of methods, techniques and tools to discover, analyze, implement, monitor and control business processes, with the ultimate goal of improving these processes. Most importantly, BPM is not just an organizational management discipline. BPM also studies how technology, and particularly information technology, can effectively support the process improvement effort. In the past two decades the field of BPM has been the focus of extensive research, which spans an increasingly growing scope and advances technology in various directions. The main international forum for state-of-the-art research in this field is the International Conference on Business Process Management, or “BPM” for short—an annual meeting of the aca ...

Prior and posterior linear pooling for combining expert opinions: Uses and impact on Bayesian Networks

The use of expert knowledge to quantify a Bayesian Network (BN) is necessary when data is not available. This however raises questions regarding how opinions from multiple experts can be used in a BN. Linear pooling is a popular method for combining probability assessments from multiple experts. In particular, Prior Linear Pooling (PrLP), which pools opinions then places them into the BN is a common method. This paper firstly proposes an alternative pooling method, Posterior Linear Pooling (PoLP). This method constructs a BN for each expert, then pools the resulting probabilities at the nodes of interest. Secondly, it investigates the advantages and disadvantages of using these pooling methods to combine the opinions of multiple experts. Finally, the methods are applied to an existing BN, the Wayfinding Bayesian Network Model, to investigate the behaviour of different groups of people and how these different methods may be able to capture such differences. The paper focusses on 6 nodes Human Factors, Environmental Factors, Wayfinding, Communication, Visual Elements of Communication and Navigation Pathway, and three subgroups Gender (female, male),Travel Experience (experienced, inexperienced), and Travel Purpose (business, personal) and finds that different behaviors can indeed be captured by the different methods.

A review on prognostic techniques for non-stationary and non-linear rotating systems

The field of prognostics has attracted significant interest from the research community in recent times. Prognostics enables the prediction of failures in machines resulting in benefits to plant operators such as shorter downtimes, higher operation reliability, reduced operations and maintenance cost, and more effective maintenance and logistics planning. Prognostic systems have been successfully deployed for the monitoring of relatively simple rotating machines. However, machines and associated systems today are increasingly complex. As such, there is an urgent need to develop prognostic techniques for such complex systems operating in the real world. This review paper focuses on prognostic techniques that can be applied to rotating machinery operating under non-linear and non-stationary conditions. The general concept of these techniques, the pros and cons of applying these methods, as well as their applications in the research field are discussed. Finally, the opportunities and challenges in implementing prognostic systems and developing effective techniques for monitoring machines operating under non-stationary and non-linear conditions are also discussed.

Report: The Canadian Best Practices Educational Toolkits: Translating evidence-based stroke recommendations into practical implementation resources

The Canadian Best Practice Recommendations for Stroke Care are intended to reduce variations in stroke care and facilitate closure of the gap between evidence and practice (Lindsay et al., 2010). The publication of best practice recommendations is only the beginning of this process. The guidelines themselves are not sufficient to change practice and increase consistency in care. Therefore, a key objective of the Canadian Stroke Network (CSN) Best Practices Working Group (BPWG) is to encourage and facilitate ongoing professional development and training for health care professionals providing stroke care. This is addressed through a multi-factorial approach to the creation and dissemination of inter-professional implementation tools and resources. The resources developed by CSN span pre-professional education, ongoing professional development, patient education and may be used to inform systems change. With a focus on knowledge translation, several inter-professional point-of-care tools have been developed by the CSN in collaboration with numerous professional organizations and expert volunteers. These resources are used to facilitate awareness, understanding and applications of evidence-based care across stroke care settings. Similar resources are also developed specifically for stroke patients, their families and informal caregivers, and the general public. With each update of the Canadian Best Practice Recommendations for Stroke Care, the BPWG and topic-specific writing groups propose priority areas for ongoing resource development. In 2010, two of these major educational initiatives were undertaken and recently completed—one to support continuing education for health care professionals regarding secondary stroke prevention and the other to educate families, informal caregivers and the public about pediatric stroke. This paper presents an overview of these two resources, and we encourage health care professionals to integrate these into their personal learning plans and tool kits for patients.

Improving PLDA speaker verification using WMFD and linear-weighted approaches in limited microphone data conditions

This paper proposes the addition of a weighted median Fisher discriminator (WMFD) projection prior to length-normalised Gaussian probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (GPLDA) modelling in order to compensate the additional session variation. In limited microphone data conditions, a linear-weighted approach is introduced to increase the influence of microphone speech dataset. The linear-weighted WMFD-projected GPLDA system shows improvements in EER and DCF values over the pooled LDA- and WMFD-projected GPLDA systems in inter-view-interview condition as WMFD projection extracts more speaker discriminant information with limited number of sessions/ speaker data, and linear-weighted GPLDA approach estimates reliable model parameters with limited microphone data.

The Driver Behaviour Questionnaire as accident predictor: A methodological re-meta-analysis

Problem The Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) is the most commonly used self-report tool in traffic safety research and applied settings. It has been claimed that the violation factor of this instrument predicts accident involvement, which was supported by a previous meta-analysis. However, that analysis did not test for methodological effects, or include contacting researchers to obtain unpublished results. Method The present study re-analysed studies on prediction of accident involvement from DBQ factors, including lapses, and many unpublished effects. Tests of various types of dissemination bias and common method variance were undertaken. Results Outlier analysis showed that some effects were probably not reliable data, but excluding them did not change the results. For correlations between violations and crashes, tendencies for published effects to be larger than unpublished ones and for effects to decrease over time were observed, but were not significant. Also, analysis using the proxy of the mean of accidents in studies indicated that studies where effects for violations are unknown have smaller effect sizes. These differences indicate dissemination bias. Studies using self-reported accidents as dependent variables had much larger effects than those using recorded accident data. Also, zero-order correlations were larger than partial correlations that controlled for exposure. Similarly, violations/accidents effects were strong only when there was also a strong correlation between accidents and exposure. Overall, the true effect is probably very close to zero (r<.07) for violations versus traffic accident involvement, depending upon which systematic tendencies in the data are controlled for. Conclusions: Methodological factors and dissemination bias have inflated the mean effect size of the DBQ in the published literature. Strong evidence of various artefactual effects is apparent. Practical Applications A greater level of care should be taken if the DBQ continues to be used in traffic safety research. Also, validation of self-reports should be more comprehensive in the future, taking into account the possibility of common method variance.

A taste of best practice in engineering sustainable solutions

This paper asks the question to what scale and speed does society need to reduce its ecological footprint and improve resource productivity to prevent further overshoot and return within the ecological limits of the earth’s ecological life support systems? How fast do these changes need to be achieved? The paper shows that now a large range of studies find that engineering sustainable solutions need to be roughly an order or magnitude resource productivity improvement (sometimes called a Factor of 10, or a 90% reduction) by 2050 to achieve real and lasting ecological sustainability. This marks a significant challenge for engineers – indeed all designers and architects, where best practice in engineering sustainable solutions will need to achieve large resource productivity targets. The paper brings together examples of best practice in achieving these large targets from around the world. The paper also highlights key resources and texts for engineers who wish to learn how to do it. But engineers need to be realistic and patient. Significant barriers exist to achieving Factor 4-10 such as the fact that infrastructure and technology rollover and replacement is often slow. This slow rollover of the built environment and technology is the context within which most engineers work, making the goal of achieving Factor 10 all the more challenging. However, the paper demonstrates that by using best practice in engineering sustainable solutions and by addressing the necessary market, information and institutional failures it is possible to achieve Factor 10 over the next 50 years. This paper draws on recent publications by The Natural Edge Project (TNEP) and partners, including Hargroves, K. Smith, M. (Eds) (2005) The Natural Advantage of Nations: Business Opportunities, Innovation and Governance for the 21st Century, and the TNEP Engineering Sustainable Solutions Program - Critical Literacies for Engineers Portfolio. Both projects have the significant support of Engineers Australia. its College of Environmental Engineers and the Society of Sustainability and Environmental Engineering.

Best individual template selection from deformation tensor minimization

We study the influence of the choice of template in tensor-based morphometry. Using 3D brain MR images from 10 monozygotic twin pairs, we defined a tensor-based distance in the log-Euclidean framework [1] between each image pair in the study. Relative to this metric, twin pairs were found to be closer to each other on average than random pairings, consistent with evidence that brain structure is under strong genetic control. We also computed the intraclass correlation and associated permutation p-value at each voxel for the determinant of the Jacobian matrix of the transformation. The cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the p-values was found at each voxel for each of the templates and compared to the null distribution. Surprisingly, there was very little difference between CDFs of statistics computed from analyses using different templates. As the brain with least log-Euclidean deformation cost, the mean template defined here avoids the blurring caused by creating a synthetic image from a population, and when selected from a large population, avoids bias by being geometrically centered, in a metric that is sensitive enough to anatomical similarity that it can even detect genetic affinity among anatomies.

Connecting soundscape to landscape: Which acoustic index best describes landscape configuration?

Soundscape assessment has been proposed as a remote ecological monitoring tool for measuring biodiversity, but few studies have examined how soundscape patterns vary with landscape configuration and condition. The goal of our study was to examine a suite of published acoustic indices to determine whether they provide comparable results relative to varying levels of landscape fragmentation and ecological condition in nineteen forest sites in eastern Australia. Our comparison of six acoustic indices according to time of day revealed that two indices, the acoustic complexity and the bioacoustic index, presented a similar pattern that was linked to avian song intensity, but was not related to landscape and biodiversity attributes. The diversity indices, acoustic entropy and acoustic diversity, and the normalized difference soundscape index revealed high nighttime sound, as well as a dawn and dusk chorus. These indices appear to be sensitive to nocturnal biodiversity which is abundant at night in warm, subtropical environments. We argue that there is need to better understand temporal partitioning of the soundscape by specific taxonomic groups, and this should involve integrated research on amphibians, insects and birds during a 24 h cycle. The three indices that best connected the soundscape with landscape characteristics, ecological condition and bird species richness were acoustic entropy, acoustic evenness and the normalized difference soundscape index. This study has demonstrated that remote soundscape assessment can be implemented as an ecological monitoring tool in fragmented Australian forest landscapes. However, further investigation should be dedicated to refining and/or combining existing acoustic indices and also to determine if these indices are appropriate in other landscapes and for other survey purposes.