A Bayesian latent class safety performance function for identifying motor vehicle crash blackspots

The current state of the practice in Blackspot Identification (BSI) utilizes safety performance functions based on total crash counts to identify transport system sites with potentially high crash risk. This paper postulates that total crash count variation over a transport network is a result of multiple distinct crash generating processes including geometric characteristics of the road, spatial features of the surrounding environment, and driver behaviour factors. However, these multiple sources are ignored in current modelling methodologies in both trying to explain or predict crash frequencies across sites. Instead, current practice employs models that imply that a single underlying crash generating process exists. The model mis-specification may lead to correlating crashes with the incorrect sources of contributing factors (e.g. concluding a crash is predominately caused by a geometric feature when it is a behavioural issue), which may ultimately lead to inefficient use of public funds and misidentification of true blackspots. This study aims to propose a latent class model consistent with a multiple crash process theory, and to investigate the influence this model has on correctly identifying crash blackspots. We first present the theoretical and corresponding methodological approach in which a Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) model is estimated assuming that crashes arise from two distinct risk generating processes including engineering and unobserved spatial factors. The Bayesian model is used to incorporate prior information about the contribution of each underlying process to the total crash count. The methodology is applied to the state-controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared to an Empirical Bayesian Negative Binomial (EB-NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures illustrates significantly improved performance of the proposed model compared to the NB model. The detection of blackspots was also improved when compared to the EB-NB model. In addition, modelling crashes as the result of two fundamentally separate underlying processes reveals more detailed information about unobserved crash causes.

Robust automatic face clustering in news video

Clustering identities in a video is a useful task to aid in video search, annotation and retrieval, and cast identification. However, reliably clustering faces across multiple videos is challenging task due to variations in the appearance of the faces, as videos are captured in an uncontrolled environment. A person's appearance may vary due to session variations including: lighting and background changes, occlusions, changes in expression and make up. In this paper we propose the novel Local Total Variability Modelling (Local TVM) approach to cluster faces across a news video corpus; and incorporate this into a novel two stage video clustering system. We first cluster faces within a single video using colour, spatial and temporal cues; after which we use face track modelling and hierarchical agglomerative clustering to cluster faces across the entire corpus. We compare different face recognition approaches within this framework. Experiments on a news video database show that the Local TVM technique is able effectively model the session variation observed in the data, resulting in improved clustering performance, with much greater computational efficiency than other methods.

Investigating variation in bus ridership rates within localised areas of a sub-tropical city

This thesis makes a significant contribution to knowledge and understanding of 'Human Travel Behaviour' in relation to transportation research. It holds some important merits that have not been proposed before. It develops a new, comprehensive and meaningful relationship that includes bus transit ridership change due to weather variables, seasonality and transit quality of service within a single daily ridership rate estimation model. The research incorporated both temporal and spatial influences on ridership within a modelling structure, named as the Nested Model Structure. It provides a complete picture of ridership variation across the sub-tropical city of Brisbane, Australia.

Dislocation after total hip replacement: there is no such thing as a safe zone for socket placement with the posterior approach

Introduction Malorientation of the socket contributes to instability after hip arthroplasty but the optimal orientation of the cup in relation to the pelvis has not been unequivocally described. Large radiological studies are few and problems occur with film standardisation, measurement methodology used and alternative definitions of describing acetabular orientation. Methods A cohort of 1,578 patients from a single institution is studied where all patient data was collected prospectively. Risk factors for patients undergoing surgery are analysed. Radiological data was compared between a series of non-dislocating hips and dislocating cases matched 2:1 by operation type, age and diagnosis. Results The overall dislocation rate for all 1,578 cases was 3.23% but the rate varied according to the type of surgery performed. The rate in uncomplicated primary cases was 2.4% which increased to 9.3% for second stage implantation for a two stage procedure for infection. There was no significant difference in the variability of the dislocating and non-dislocating groups for either inclination (p = 0.393) or anteversion (p = 0.661). Conclusions A “safe zone” for socket orientation to avoid dislocation could not be defined. The cause of dislocation is multifactorial, re-establishing the anatomic centre of rotation, balancing soft tissues and avoidance of impingement around the hip are important considerations.

Ambient temperature and risk of cardiovascular hospitalization: An updated systematic review and meta-analysis

The association between temperatures and risk of cardiovascular mortality has been recognized but the association drawn from previous meta-analysis was weak due to the lack of sufficient studies. This paper presented a review with updated reports in the literature about the risk of cardiovascular hospitalization in relation to different temperature exposures and examined the dose–response relationship of temperature-cardiovascular hospitalization by change in units of temperature, latitudes, and lag days. The pooled effect sizes were calculated for cold, heat, heatwave, and diurnal variation using random-effects meta-analysis, and the dose–response relationship of temperature-cardiovascular admission was modelled using random-effect meta-regression. The Cochrane Q-test and index of heterogeneity (I2) were used to evaluate heterogeneity, and Egger's test was used to evaluate publication bias. Sixty-four studies were included in meta-analysis. The pooled results suggest that for a change in temperature condition, the risk of cardiovascular hospitalization increased 2.8% (RR, 1.028; 95% CI, 1.021–1.035) for cold exposure, 2.2% (RR, 1.022; 95% CI, 1.006–1.039) for heatwave exposure, and 0.7% (RR, 1.007; 95% CI, 1.002–1.012) for an increase in diurnal temperature. However no association was observed for heat exposure. The significant dose–response relationship of temperature — cardiovascular admission was found with cold exposure and diurnal temperature. Increase in one-day lag caused a marginal reduction in risk of cardiovascular hospitalizations for cold exposure and diurnal variation, and increase in latitude was associated with a decrease in risk of cardiovascular hospitalizations for diurnal temperature only. There is a significant short-term effect of cold exposure, heatwave and diurnal variation on cardiovascular hospitalizations. Further research is needed to understand the temperature-cardiovascular relationship for different climate areas.

Diurnal variation of anterior scleral and conjunctival thickness

Purpose To examine whether anterior scleral and conjunctival thickness undergoes significant diurnal variation over a 24-hour period. Methods Nineteen healthy young adults (mean age 22 ± 2 years) with minimal refractive error (mean spherical equivalent refraction -0.08 ± 0.39 D), had measures of anterior scleral and conjunctival thickness collected using anterior segment optical coherence tomography (AS-OCT) at seven measurement sessions over a 24-hour period. The thickness of the temporal anterior sclera and conjunctiva were determined at 6 locations (each separated by 0.5 mm) at varying distances from the scleral spur for each subject at each measurement session. Results Both the anterior sclera and conjunctiva were found to undergo significant diurnal variations in thickness over a 24-hour period (both p <0.01). The sclera and conjunctiva exhibited a similar pattern of diurnal change, with a small magnitude thinning observed close to midday, and a larger magnitude thickening observed in the early morning immediately after waking. The amplitude of diurnal thickness change was larger in the conjunctiva (mean amplitude 69 ± 29 μm) compared to the sclera (21 ± 8 μm). The conjunctiva exhibited its smallest magnitude of change at the scleral spur location (mean amplitude 56 ± 17 μm) whereas the sclera exhibited its largest magnitude of change at this location (52 ± 21 μm). Conclusions This study provides the first evidence of diurnal variations occurring in the thickness of the anterior sclera and conjunctiva. Studies requiring precise measures of these anatomical layers should therefore take time of day into consideration. The majority of the observed changes occurred in the early morning immediately after waking and were of larger magnitude in the conjunctiva compared to the sclera. Thickness changes at other times of the day were of smaller magnitude and generally not statistically significant.

HR-MAS NMR spectroscopy shows regional metabolite variation in bovine articular cartilage

Mechanical stress is an important external factor effecting the development and maintenance of articular cartilage. The metabolite profile of diseased cartilage has been well studied but there is limited information about the variation in metabolite profile of healthy cartilage. With the importance of load in maintaining healthy cartilage, regional differences in metabolite profile associated with differences in load may provide information on how load contributes to the maintenance of healthy cartilage. HR-MAS NMR spectroscopy allows the assessment of tissue samples without modification and was used for assessing the difference in metabolic profile between the load bearing and non-load bearing regions of the bovine articular cartilage. In this preliminary study, we examined cartilage from tibia and femur of four knee joints. Sixteen pairs of 1D-NOESY spectra were acquired. Principle component analysis (PCA) identified chemical shifts responsible for variance. SBASE (AMIX) and the Human Metabolome Database were used in conjunction with previous reported cartilage data for identifying metabolites associated with the PCA results. The major contributors to load-related differences in metabolite profile were N-acetyl groups, lactate and phosphocholine peaks. Integrals of these regions were further analysed using a Student's t-test. In load bearing cartilage regions. N-acetyl groups and phosphocholine were found at significantly higher concentration (p < 0.05 and p < 0.005, respectively) in both femur and tibia, while lactate was reduced in load bearing cartilage (p < 0.005). The results of this pilot HR-MAS NMR study demonstrate its ability to provide useful metabolite information for healthy cartilage.

Tools for compositional data with a total

Compositional data analysis usually deals with relative information between parts where the total (abundances, mass, amount, etc.) is unknown or uninformative. This article addresses the question of what to do when the total is known and is of interest. Tools used in this case are reviewed and analysed, in particular the relationship between the positive orthant of D-dimensional real space, the product space of the real line times the D-part simplex, and their Euclidean space structures. The first alternative corresponds to data analysis taking logarithms on each component, and the second one to treat a log-transformed total jointly with a composition describing the distribution of component amounts. Real data about total abundances of phytoplankton in an Australian river motivated the present study and are used for illustration.

Natural variation and Biogeography of the melon fruit fly, Zeugodacus cucurbitae (Diptera : Tephritidae), in Southeast-Asia and the west-pacific

This thesis used multidisciplinary approaches which greatly enhance our understanding of population structure and can be particularly powerful tools for resolving variation of melon fly over geographic and temporal scales, and for determining invasive pathways. The results from this thesis reinforce the value of integrating multiple data sets to better understand and resolve natural variation within an important pest to determine whether there are cryptic species, discrete lineages or host races, and to identify dispersal pathways in an invasive pest. These results are instructive for regional biosecurity, trade and quarantine, and provide important background for future area-wide management programmes. The integrative methodology adopted in this thesis is applicable to a variety of other insect pests.

Regional variation in social isolation amongst older Australians

Regional studies globally have a strong focus on understanding the causes of variation in the economic performance and wellbeing of regions and this emphasis acknowledges that the strength of the local or regional economy plays a determinant role in shaping quality of life. Regional research has been less active in considering spatial variation in other factors that are critical to individual and societal wellbeing. For example, the regional studies community has been absent from the debate on the social determinants of health and how these influences vary spatially. This paper considers the results of a cross sectional survey of Australians aged 65 and over that focussed on social connections and wellbeing. It examines regional variations in the incidence of social isolation within the older population. It finds that while the incidence of self-reported social isolation amongst older persons is broadly consistent with earlier studies, it demonstrates a spatial patterning that is unexpected. The paper considers community-building activities in addressing the impacts of social isolation, including the role of urban design, and suggests that there is a need to supplement the national overview presented there through more detailed studies focussed on individual localities.

Chromosomal rearrangements, phenotypic variation and modularity: A case study from a contact zone between house mouse Robertsonian races in Central Italy

The Western European house mouse, Mus musculus domesticus, is well-known for the high frequency of Robertsonian fusions that have rapidly produced more than 50 karyotipic races, making it an ideal model for studying the mechanisms of chromosomal speciation. The mouse mandible is one of the traits studied most intensively to investigate the effect of Robertsonian fusions on phenotypic variation within and between populations. This complex bone structure has also been widely used to study the level of integration between different morphogenetic units. Here, with the aim of testing the effect of different karyotypic assets on the morphology of the mouse mandible and on its level of modularity, we performed morphometric analyses of mice from a contact area between two highly metacentric races in Central Italy. We found no difference in size, while the mandible shape was found to be different between the two Robertsonian races, even after accounting for the genetic relationships among individuals and geographic proximity. Our results support the existence of two modules that indicate a certain degree of evolutionary independence, but no difference in the strength of modularity between chromosomal races. Moreover, the ascending ramus showed more pronounced interpopulation/race phenotypic differences than the alveolar region, an effect that could be associated to their different polygenic architecture. This study suggests that chromosomal rearrangements play a role in the house mouse phenotypic divergence, and that the two modules of the mouse mandible are differentially affected by environmental factors and genetic makeup.

The Exeter Contemporary flanged cemented acetabular component in primary total hip arthroplasty

Aims: We report on the outcome of the Exeter Contemporary flanged cemented all-polyethylene acetabular component with a mean follow-up of 12 years (10 to 13.9). This study reviewed 203 hips in 194 patients. 129 hips in 122 patients are still in situ; 66 hips in 64 patients were in patients who died before ten years, and eight hips (eight patients) were revised. Clinical outcome scores were available for 108 hips (104 patients) and radiographs for 103 hips (100 patients). Patients and Methods: A retrospective review was undertaken of a consecutive series of 203 routine primary cemented total hip arthroplasties (THA) in 194 patients. Results: There were no acetabular component revisions for aseptic loosening. Acetabular revision was undertaken in eight hips. In four hips revision was necessitated by periprosthetic femoral fractures, in two hips by recurrent dislocation, in one hip for infection and in one hip for unexplained ongoing pain. Oxford and Harris hip scores demonstrated significant clinical improvement (all p < 0.001). Radiolucent lines were present in 37 (36%) of the 103 acetabular components available for radiological evaluation. In 27 of these, the line was confined to zone 1. No component had migrated. Conclusion: Kaplan–Meier survivorship, with revision for aseptic loosening as the endpoint, was 100% at 12.5 years and for all causes was 97.8% (95% confidence interval 95.6 to 100) when 40 components remained at risk. The Exeter Contemporary flanged cemented acetabular component demonstrates excellent survivorship at 12.5 years. Take home message: The Exeter Contemporary flanged cemented acetabular component has excellent clinical outcomes and survivorship when used with the Exeter stem in total hip arthroplasty.

Morbid obesity in total hip arthroplasty: Redefining outcomes for operative time, length of stay, and readmission

Background The incidence of obesity amongst patients presenting for elective Total Hip Arthroplasty (THA) has increased in the last decade and the relationship between obesity and the need for joint replacement has been demonstrated. This study evaluates the effects of morbid obesity on outcomes following primary THA by comparing short-term outcomes in THA between a morbidly obese (BMI ≥40) and a normal weight (BMI 18.5 - <25) cohort at our institution between January 2003 and December 2010. Methods Thirty-nine patients included in the morbidly obese group were compared with 186 in the normal weight group. Operative time, length of stay, complications, readmission and length of readmission were compared. Results Operative time was increased in the morbidly obese group at 122 minutes compared with 100 minutes (p=0.002). Post-operatively there was an increased 30-day readmission rate related to surgery of 12.8% associated with BMI ≥40 compared with 2.7% (p= 0.005) as well as a 5.1 fold increase in surgery related readmitted bed days - 0.32 bed days per patient for normal weight compared with 1.64 per patient for the morbidly obese (p=0.026). Conclusion Morbidly obese patients present a technical challenge and likely this and the resultant complications are underestimated. More work needs to be performed in order to enable suitable allocation of resources.