467 resultados para Prediction techniques
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Elaborated Intrusion (EI) Theory proposes that cravings occur when involuntary thoughts about food are elaborated; a key part of elaboration is affectively-charged imagery. Craving can be weakened by working memory tasks that block imagery. EI Theory predicts that cravings should also be reduced by preventing involuntary thoughts being elaborated in the first place. Research has found that imagery techniques such as body scanning and guided imagery can reduce the occurrence of food thoughts. This study tested the prediction that these techniques also reduce craving. We asked participants to abstain from food overnight, and then to carry out 10 min of body scanning, guided imagery, or a control mind wandering task. They rated their craving at 10 points during the task on a single item measure, and before and after the task using the Craving Experience Questionnaire. While craving rose during the task for the mind wandering group, neither the guided imagery nor body scanning group showed an increase. These effects were not detected by the CEQ, suggesting that they are only present during the competing task. As they require no devices or materials and are unobtrusive, brief guided imagery strategies might form useful components of weight loss programmes that attempt to address cravings.
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This project advances the knowledge of rail wear and crack formation due to rail/wheel contact in Australian heavy-haul railway lines. This comprehensive study utilised numerous techniques including: simulation using a twin-disk test-rig, scanning electron microscope particle analysis and finite element modeling for material failure prediction. Through this work, new material failure models have been developed which may be used to predict the lifetime and reliability of materials undergoing severe contact conditions.
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Visual localization in outdoor environments is often hampered by the natural variation in appearance caused by such things as weather phenomena, diurnal fluctuations in lighting, and seasonal changes. Such changes are global across an environment and, in the case of global light changes and seasonal variation, the change in appearance occurs in a regular, cyclic manner. Visual localization could be greatly improved if it were possible to predict the appearance of a particular location at a particular time, based on the appearance of the location in the past and knowledge of the nature of appearance change over time. In this paper, we investigate whether global appearance changes in an environment can be learned sufficiently to improve visual localization performance. We use time of day as a test case, and generate transformations between morning and afternoon using sample images from a training set. We demonstrate the learned transformation can be generalized from training data and show the resulting visual localization on a test set is improved relative to raw image comparison. The improvement in localization remains when the area is revisited several weeks later.
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Due to the health impacts caused by exposures to air pollutants in urban areas, monitoring and forecasting of air quality parameters have become popular as an important topic in atmospheric and environmental research today. The knowledge on the dynamics and complexity of air pollutants behavior has made artificial intelligence models as a useful tool for a more accurate pollutant concentration prediction. This paper focuses on an innovative method of daily air pollution prediction using combination of Support Vector Machine (SVM) as predictor and Partial Least Square (PLS) as a data selection tool based on the measured values of CO concentrations. The CO concentrations of Rey monitoring station in the south of Tehran, from Jan. 2007 to Feb. 2011, have been used to test the effectiveness of this method. The hourly CO concentrations have been predicted using the SVM and the hybrid PLS–SVM models. Similarly, daily CO concentrations have been predicted based on the aforementioned four years measured data. Results demonstrated that both models have good prediction ability; however the hybrid PLS–SVM has better accuracy. In the analysis presented in this paper, statistic estimators including relative mean errors, root mean squared errors and the mean absolute relative error have been employed to compare performances of the models. It has been concluded that the errors decrease after size reduction and coefficients of determination increase from 56 to 81% for SVM model to 65–85% for hybrid PLS–SVM model respectively. Also it was found that the hybrid PLS–SVM model required lower computational time than SVM model as expected, hence supporting the more accurate and faster prediction ability of hybrid PLS–SVM model.
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MapReduce frameworks such as Hadoop are well suited to handling large sets of data which can be processed separately and independently, with canonical applications in information retrieval and sales record analysis. Rapid advances in sequencing technology have ensured an explosion in the availability of genomic data, with a consequent rise in the importance of large scale comparative genomics, often involving operations and data relationships which deviate from the classical Map Reduce structure. This work examines the application of Hadoop to patterns of this nature, using as our focus a wellestablished workflow for identifying promoters - binding sites for regulatory proteins - Across multiple gene regions and organisms, coupled with the unifying step of assembling these results into a consensus sequence. Our approach demonstrates the utility of Hadoop for problems of this nature, showing how the tyranny of the "dominant decomposition" can be at least partially overcome. It also demonstrates how load balance and the granularity of parallelism can be optimized by pre-processing that splits and reorganizes input files, allowing a wide range of related problems to be brought under the same computational umbrella.
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The safe working lifetime of a structure in a corrosive or other harsh environment is frequently not limited by the material itself but rather by the integrity of the coating material. Advanced surface coatings are usually crosslinked organic polymers such as epoxies and polyurethanes which must not shrink, crack or degrade when exposed to environmental extremes. While standard test methods for environmental durability of coatings have been devised, the tests are structured more towards determining the end of life rather than in anticipation of degradation. We have been developing prognostic tools to anticipate coating failure by using a fundamental understanding of their degradation behaviour which, depending on the polymer structure, is mediated through hydrolytic or oxidation processes. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) is a widely-used laboratory technique for the analysis of polymer degradation and with the development of portable FTIR spectrometers, new opportunities have arisen to measure polymer degradation non-destructively in the field. For IR reflectance sampling, both diffuse (scattered) and specular (direct) reflections can occur. The complexity in these spectra has provided interesting opportunities to study surface chemical and physical changes during paint curing, service abrasion and weathering, but has often required the use of advanced statistical analysis methods such as chemometrics to discern these changes. Results from our studies using this and related techniques and the technical challenges that have arisen will be presented.
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This article presents new theoretical and empirical evidence on the forecasting ability of prediction markets. We develop a model that predicts that the time until expiration of a prediction market should negatively affect the accuracy of prices as a forecasting tool in the direction of a ‘favourite/longshot bias’. That is, high-likelihood events are underpriced, and low-likelihood events are over-priced. We confirm this result using a large data set of prediction market transaction prices. Prediction markets are reasonably well calibrated when time to expiration is relatively short, but prices are significantly biased for events farther in the future. When time value of money is considered, the miscalibration can be exploited to earn excess returns only when the trader has a relatively low discount rate.
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Polarisation diversity is a technique to improve the quality of mobile communications, but its reliability is suboptimal because it depends on the mobile channel and the antenna orientations at both ends of the mobile link. A method to optimise the reliability is established by minimising the dependency on antenna orientations. While the mobile base station can have fixed antenna orientation, the mobile terminal is typically a handheld device with random orientations. This means orientation invariance needs to be established at the receiver in the downlink, and at the transmitter in the uplink. This research presents separate solutions for both cases, and is based on the transmission of an elliptically polarised signal synthesised from the channel statistics. Complete receiver orientation invariance is achieved in the downlink. Effects of the transmitter orientation are minimised in the uplink.
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Recent research at the Queensland University of Technology has investigated the structural and thermal behaviour of load bearing Light gauge Steel Frame (LSF) wall systems made of 1.15 mm G500 steel studs and varying plasterboard and insulation configurations (cavity and external insulation) using full scale fire tests. Suitable finite element models of LSF walls were then developed and validated by comparing with test results. In this study, the validated finite element models of LSF wall panels subject to standard fire conditions were used in a detailed parametric study to investigate the effects of important parameters such as steel grade and thickness, plasterboard screw spacing, plasterboard lateral restraint, insulation materials and load ratio on their performance under standard fire conditions. Suitable equations were proposed to predict the time–temperature profiles of LSF wall studs with eight different plasterboard-insulation configurations, and used in the finite element analyses. Finite element parametric studies produced extensive fire performance data for the LSF wall panels in the form of load ratio versus time and critical hot flange (failure) temperature curves for eight wall configurations. This data demonstrated the superior fire performance of externally insulated LSF wall panels made of different steel grades and thicknesses. It also led to the development of a set of equations to predict the important relationship between the load ratio and the critical hot flange temperature of LSF wall studs. Finally this paper proposes a simplified method to predict the fire resistance rating of LSF walls based on the two proposed set of equations for the load ratio–hot flange temperature and the time–temperature relationships.
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Previous studies have shown that the human lens contains glycerophospholipids with ether linkages. These lipids differ from conventional glycerophospholipids in that the sn-1 substituent is attached to the glycerol backbone via an 1-O-alkyl or an 1-O-alk-1'-enyl ether rather than an ester bond. The present investigation employed a combination of collision-induced dissociation (CID) and ozone-induced dissociation (OzID) to unambiguously distinguish such 1-O-alkyl and 1-O-alk-1'-enyl ethers. Using these methodologies the human lens was found to contain several abundant 1-O-alkyl glycerophos-phoethanolamines, including GPEtn(16:0e/9Z-18:1), GPEtn(11Z-18:1e/9Z-18:1), and GPEtn(18:0e/9Z-18:1), as well as a related series of unusual 1-O-alkyl glycerophosphoserines, including GPSer(16:0e/9Z-18:1), GPSer(11Z-18:1e/9Z-18:1), GPSer(18:0e/9Z-18:1) that to our knowledge have not previously been observed in human tissue. Isomeric 1-O-alk-1'-enyl ethers were absent or in low abundance. Examination of the double bond position within the phospholipids using OzID revealed that several positional isomers were present, including sites of unsaturation at the n-9, n-7, and even n-5 positions. Tandem CID/OzID experiments revealed a preference for double bonds in the n-7 position of 1-O-ether linked chains, while n-9 double bonds predominated in the ester-linked fatty acids [e.g., GPEtn(11Z-18:1e/9Z-18:1) and GPSer(11Z-18:1e/9Z-18:1)]. Different combinations of these double bond positional isomers within chains at the sn-1 and sn-2 positions point to a remarkable molecular diversity of ether-lipids within the human lens.
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E-mail spam has remained a scourge and menacing nuisance for users, internet and network service operators and providers, in spite of the anti-spam techniques available; and spammers are relentlessly circumventing these anti-spam techniques embedded or installed in form of software products on both client and server sides of both fixed and mobile devices to their advantage. This continuous evasion degrades the capabilities of these anti-spam techniques as none of them provides a comprehensive reliable solution to the problem posed by spam and spammers. Major problem for instance arises when these anti-spam techniques misjudge or misclassify legitimate emails as spam (false positive); or fail to deliver or block spam on the SMTP server (false negative); and the spam passes-on to the receiver, and yet this server from where it originates does not notice or even have an auto alert service to indicate that the spam it was designed to prevent has slipped and moved on to the receiver’s SMTP server; and the receiver’s SMTP server still fail to stop the spam from reaching user’s device and with no auto alert mechanism to inform itself of this inability; thus causing a staggering cost in loss of time, effort and finance. This paper takes a comparative literature overview of some of these anti-spam techniques, especially the filtering technological endorsements designed to prevent spam, their merits and demerits to entrench their capability enhancements, as well as evaluative analytical recommendations that will be subject to further research.
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In this paper, we propose a new multi-class steganalysis for binary image. The proposed method can identify the type of steganographic technique used by examining on the given binary image. In addition, our proposed method is also capable of differentiating an image with hidden message from the one without hidden message. In order to do that, we will extract some features from the binary image. The feature extraction method used is a combination of the method extended from our previous work and some new methods proposed in this paper. Based on the extracted feature sets, we construct our multi-class steganalysis from the SVM classifier. We also present the empirical works to demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively identify five different types of steganography.
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Designing systems for multiple stakeholders requires frequent collaboration with multiple stakeholders from the start. In many cases at least some stakeholders lack a professional habit of formal modeling. We report observations from student design teams as well as two case studies, respectively of a prototype for supporting creative communication to design objects, and of stakeholder-involvement in early design. In all observations and case studies we found that non-formal techniques supported strong collaboration resulting in deep understanding of early design ideas, of their value and of the feasibility of solutions.
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Effective machine fault prognostic technologies can lead to elimination of unscheduled downtime and increase machine useful life and consequently lead to reduction of maintenance costs as well as prevention of human casualties in real engineering asset management. This paper presents a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation technique and historical failure knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostic and prognostic system. To estimate a discrete machine degradation state which can represent the complex nature of machine degradation effectively, the proposed prognostic model employed a classification algorithm which can use a number of damage sensitive features compared to conventional time series analysis techniques for accurate long-term prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, the five different level data of typical four faults from High Pressure Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were used for the comparison of intelligent diagnostic test using five different classification algorithms. In addition, two sets of impeller-rub data were analysed and employed to predict the remnant life of pump based on estimation of health state probability using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognostics system has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for machine remnant life prediction in real life industrial applications.
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Rolling Element Bearings (REBs) are vital components in rotating machineries for providing rotating motion. In slow speed rotating machines, bearings are normally subjected to heavy static loads and a catastrophic failure can cause enormous disruption to production and human safety. Due to its low operating speed the impact energy generated by the rotating elements on the defective components is not sufficient to produce a detectable vibration response. This is further aggravated by the inability of general measuring instruments to detect and process the weak signals at the initiation of the defect accurately. Furthermore, the weak signals are often corrupted by background noise. This is a serious problem faced by maintenance engineers today and the inability to detect an incipient failure of the machine can significantly increases the risk of functional failure and costly downtime. This paper presents the application of noise removal techniques for enhancing the detection capability for slow speed REB condition monitoring. Blind deconvolution (BD) and adaptive line enhancer (ALE) are compared to evaluate their performance in enhancing the source signal with consequential removal of background noise. In the experimental study, incipient defects were seeded on a number of roller bearings and the signals were acquired using acoustic emission (AE) sensor. Kurtosis and modified peak ratio (mPR) were used to determine the detectability of signal corrupted by noise.