Integrated approach for diagnostics and prognostics of HP LNG pump based on health state probability estimation

Effective machine fault prognostic technologies can lead to elimination of unscheduled downtime and increase machine useful life and consequently lead to reduction of maintenance costs as well as prevention of human casualties in real engineering asset management. This paper presents a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation technique and historical failure knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostic and prognostic system. To estimate a discrete machine degradation state which can represent the complex nature of machine degradation effectively, the proposed prognostic model employed a classification algorithm which can use a number of damage sensitive features compared to conventional time series analysis techniques for accurate long-term prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, the five different level data of typical four faults from High Pressure Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were used for the comparison of intelligent diagnostic test using five different classification algorithms. In addition, two sets of impeller-rub data were analysed and employed to predict the remnant life of pump based on estimation of health state probability using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognostics system has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for machine remnant life prediction in real life industrial applications.

Recursive pathways to marginal likelihood estimation with prior-sensitivity analysis

We investigate the utility to computational Bayesian analyses of a particular family of recursive marginal likelihood estimators characterized by the (equivalent) algorithms known as "biased sampling" or "reverse logistic regression" in the statistics literature and "the density of states" in physics. Through a pair of numerical examples (including mixture modeling of the well-known galaxy dataset) we highlight the remarkable diversity of sampling schemes amenable to such recursive normalization, as well as the notable efficiency of the resulting pseudo-mixture distributions for gauging prior-sensitivity in the Bayesian model selection context. Our key theoretical contributions are to introduce a novel heuristic ("thermodynamic integration via importance sampling") for qualifying the role of the bridging sequence in this procedure, and to reveal various connections between these recursive estimators and the nested sampling technique.

Numerical estimation of 3D mechanical forces exerted by cells on non-linear materials

The exchange of physical forces in both cell-cell and cell-matrix interactions play a significant role in a variety of physiological and pathological processes, such as cell migration, cancer metastasis, inflammation and wound healing. Therefore, great interest exists in accurately quantifying the forces that cells exert on their substrate during migration. Traction Force Microscopy (TFM) is the most widely used method for measuring cell traction forces. Several mathematical techniques have been developed to estimate forces from TFM experiments. However, certain simplifications are commonly assumed, such as linear elasticity of the materials and/or free geometries, which in some cases may lead to inaccurate results. Here, cellular forces are numerically estimated by solving a minimization problem that combines multiple non-linear FEM solutions. Our simulations, free from constraints on the geometrical and the mechanical conditions, show that forces are predicted with higher accuracy than when using the standard approaches.

Synthesis of MgB2 at low temperature and autogenous pressure

High quality, micron-sized interpenetrating grains of MgB2 with high density are produced at low temperatures (~420oC < T < ~500oC) under autogenous pressure by pre-mixing Mg powder and NaBH4 and heating in an Inconel 601 alloy reactor for 5−15 hours. Optimum production of MgB2 with yields greater than 75% occurs for autogenous pressure in the range 1.0 MPa to 2.0 MPa with the reactor at ~500oC. Autogenous pressure is induced by the decomposition of NaBH4 in the presence of Mg and/or other Mg-based compounds. The morphology, transition temperature and magnetic properties of MgB2 are dependent on the heating regime. Significant improvement in physical properties accrues when the reactor temperature is held at 250oC for >20minutes prior to a hold at 500oC.

The role of ethylene and cold temperature in the regulation of the apple POLYGALACTURONASE1 gene and fruit softening

Fruit softening in apple (Malus 3 domestica) is associated with an increase in the ripening hormone ethylene. Here, we show that in cv Royal Gala apples that have the ethylene biosynthetic gene ACC OXIDASE1 suppressed, a cold treatment preconditions the apples to soften independently of added ethylene. When a cold treatment is followed by an ethylene treatment, a more rapid softening occurs than in apples that have not had a cold treatment. Apple fruit softening has been associated with the increase in the expression of cell wall hydrolase genes. One such gene, POLYGALACTURONASE1 (PG1), increases in expression both with ethylene and following a cold treatment. Transcriptional regulation of PG1 through the ethylene pathway is likely to be through an ETHYLENE-INSENSITIVE3-like transcription factor, which increases in expression during apple fruit development and transactivates the PG1 promoter in transient assays in the presence of ethylene. A coldrelated gene that resembles a COLD BINDING FACTOR (CBF) class of gene also transactivates the PG1 promoter. The transactivation by the CBF-like gene is greatly enhanced by the addition of exogenous ethylene. These observations give a possible molecular mechanism for the coldand ethylene-regulated control of fruit softening and suggest that either these two pathways act independently and synergistically with each other or cold enhances the ethylene response such that background levels of ethylene in the ethylene-suppressed apples is sufficient to induce fruit softening in apples.

High temperature reduces apple fruit colour via modulation of the anthocyanin regulatory complex

The biosynthesis of anthocyanin in many plants is affected by environmental conditions. In apple (Malus×domestica Borkh.), concentrations of fruit anthocyanins are lower under hot climatic conditions. We examined the anthocyanin accumulation in the peel of maturing 'Mondial Gala' and 'Royal Gala' apples, grown in both temperate and hot climates, and using artificial heating of on-tree fruit. Heat caused a dramatic reduction of both peel anthocyanin concentration and transcripts of the genes of the anthocyanin biosynthetic pathway. Heating fruit rapidly reduced expression of the R2R3 MYB transcription factor (MYB10) responsible for coordinative regulation for red skin colour, as well as expression of other genes in the transcriptional activation complex. A single night of low temperatures is sufficient to elicit a large increase in transcription of MYB10 and consequently the biosynthetic pathway. Candidate genes that can repress anthocyanin biosynthesis did not appear to be responsible for reductions in anthocyanin content. We propose that temperature-induced regulation of anthocyanin biosynthesis is primarily caused by altered transcript levels of the activating anthocyanin regulatory complex.

Parameter estimation of thrust models of uninhabited airborne systems

This paper presents a method for the estimation of thrust model parameters of uninhabited airborne systems using specific flight tests. Particular tests are proposed to simplify the estimation. The proposed estimation method is based on three steps. The first step uses a regression model in which the thrust is assumed constant. This allows us to obtain biased initial estimates of the aerodynamic coeficients of the surge model. In the second step, a robust nonlinear state estimator is implemented using the initial parameter estimates, and the model is augmented by considering the thrust as random walk. In the third step, the estimate of the thrust obtained by the observer is used to fit a polynomial model in terms of the propeller advanced ratio. We consider a numerical example based on Monte-Carlo simulations to quantify the sampling properties of the proposed estimator given realistic flight conditions.

Parameter estimation of structural commodity price models

Commodity price modeling is normally approached in terms of structural time-series models, in which the different components (states) have a financial interpretation. The parameters of these models can be estimated using maximum likelihood. This approach results in a non-linear parameter estimation problem and thus a key issue is how to obtain reliable initial estimates. In this paper, we focus on the initial parameter estimation problem for the Schwartz-Smith two-factor model commonly used in asset valuation. We propose the use of a two-step method. The first step considers a univariate model based only on the spot price and uses a transfer function model to obtain initial estimates of the fundamental parameters. The second step uses the estimates obtained in the first step to initialize a re-parameterized state-space-innovations based estimator, which includes information related to future prices. The second step refines the estimates obtained in the first step and also gives estimates of the remaining parameters in the model. This paper is part tutorial in nature and gives an introduction to aspects of commodity price modeling and the associated parameter estimation problem.

The lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease mortality in a subtropical climate zone in China

This research quantifies the lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease in Changsha—a subtropical climate zone of China. A Poisson regression model within a distributed lag nonlinear models framework was used to examine the lag effects of cold- and heat-related CVD mortality. The lag effect for heat-related CVD mortality was just 0–3 days. In contrast, we observed a statistically significant association with 10–25 lag days for cold-related CVD mortality. Low temperatures with 0–2 lag days increased the mortality risk for those ≥65 years and females. For all ages, the cumulative effects of cold-related CVD mortality was 6.6% (95% CI: 5.2%–8.2%) for 30 lag days while that of heat-related CVD mortality was 4.9% (95% CI: 2.0%–7.9%) for 3 lag days. We found that in Changsha city, the lag effect of hot temperatures is short while the lag effect of cold temperatures is long. Females and older people were more sensitive to extreme hot and cold temperatures than males and younger people.

Interchangeability of infrared and conductive devices for the measurement of human skin temperature

This thesis is a comparative investigation of the methodology applied to human skin temperature measurement. The findings of this thesis suggest that clinical and significant differences exist between conductive and infrared devices which are commonly employed in the assessment of human skin temperature. These significant differences could potentially influence the interpretation of results, diagnosis and therefore treatment outcomes for health, clinical and exercise science applications.

Two dynamic discrete choice estimation problems and simulation method solutions

This paper considers two problems that frequently arise in dynamic discrete choice problems but have not received much attention with regard to simulation methods. The first problem is how to simulate unbiased simulators of probabilities conditional on past history. The second is simulating a discrete transition probability model when the underlying dependent variable is really continuous. Both methods work well relative to reasonable alternatives in the application discussed. However, in both cases, for this application, simpler methods also provide reasonably good results.

Simulation-based estimation

In this paper, I present a number of leading examples in the empirical literature that use simulation-based estimation methods. For each example, I describe the model, why simulation is needed, and how to simulate the relevant object. There is a section on simulation methods and another on simulations-based estimation methods. The paper concludes by considering the significance of each of the examples discussed a commenting on potential future areas of interest.

Semiparametric estimation of count regression models

This paper develops a semiparametric estimation approach for mixed count regression models based on series expansion for the unknown density of the unobserved heterogeneity. We use the generalized Laguerre series expansion around a gamma baseline density to model unobserved heterogeneity in a Poisson mixture model. We establish the consistency of the estimator and present a computational strategy to implement the proposed estimation techniques in the standard count model as well as in truncated, censored, and zero-inflated count regression models. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the finite sample behavior of the estimator is quite good. The paper applies the method to a model of individual shopping behavior. © 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

Low-temperature plasma processing for Si photovoltaics

There has been a recent rapid expansion of the range of applications of low-temperature plasma processing in Si-based photovoltaic (PV) technologies. The desire to produce Si-based PV materials at an acceptable cost with consistent performance and reproducibility has stimulated a large number of major research and research infrastructure programs, and a rapidly increasing number of publications in the field of low-temperature plasma processing for Si photovoltaics. In this article, we introduce the low-temperature plasma sources for Si photovoltaic applications and discuss the effects of low-temperature plasma dissociation and deposition on the synthesis of Si-based thin films. We also examine the relevant growth mechanisms and plasma diagnostics, Si thin-film solar cells, Si heterojunction solar cells and silicon nitride materials for antireflection and surface passivation. Special attention is paid to the low-temperature plasma interactions with Si materials including hydrogen interaction, wafer cleaning, masked or mask-free surface texturization, the direct formation of p-n junction, and removal of phosphorus silicate glass or parasitic emitters. The chemical and physical interactions in such plasmas with Si surfaces are analyzed. Several examples of the plasma processes and techniques are selected to represent a variety of applications aimed at the improvement of Si-based solar cell performance. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

Harnessing the influence of reactive edges and defects of graphene substrates for achieving complete cycle of room-temperature molecular sensing

Molecular doping and detection are at the forefront of graphene research, a topic of great interest in physical and materials science. Molecules adsorb strongly on graphene, leading to a change in electrical conductivity at room temperature. However, a common impediment for practical applications reported by all studies to date is the excessively slow rate of desorption of important reactive gases such as ammonia and nitrogen dioxide. Annealing at high temperatures, or exposure to strong ultraviolet light under vacuum, is employed to facilitate desorption of these gases. In this article, the molecules adsorbed on graphene nanoflakes and on chemically derived graphene-nanomesh flakes are displaced rapidly at room temperature in air by the use of gaseous polar molecules such as water and ethanol. The mechanism for desorption is proposed to arise from the electrostatic forces exerted by the polar molecules, which decouples the overlap between substrate defect states, molecule states, and graphene states near the Fermi level. Using chemiresistors prepared from water-based dispersions of single-layer graphene on mesoporous alumina membranes, the study further shows that the edges of the graphene flakes (showing p-type responses to NO2 and NH3) and the edges of graphene nanomesh structures (showing n-type responses to NO2 and NH3) have enhanced sensitivity. The measured responses towards gases are comparable to or better than those which have been obtained using devices that are more sophisticated. The higher sensitivity and rapid regeneration of the sensor at room temperature provides a clear advancement towards practical molecule detection using graphene-based materials.