Prediction of age at menopause from assessment of ovarian reserve may be improved by using body mass index and smoking status

Objective: Menopause is the consequence of exhaustion of the ovarian follicular pool. AMH, an indirect hormonal marker of ovarian reserve, has been recently proposed as a predictor for age at menopause. Since BMI and smoking status are relevant independent factors associated with age at menopause we evaluated whether a model including all three of these variables could improve AMH-based prediction of age at menopause. Methods: In the present cohort study, participants were 375 eumenorrheic women aged 19–44 years and a sample of 2,635 Italian menopausal women. AMH values were obtained from the eumenorrheic women. Results: Regression analysis of the AMH data showed that a quadratic function of age provided a good description of these data plotted on a logarithmic scale, with a distribution of residual deviates that was not normal but showed significant leftskewness. Under the hypothesis that menopause can be predicted by AMH dropping below a critical threshold, a model predicting menopausal age was constructed from the AMH regression model and applied to the data on menopause. With the AMH threshold dependent on the covariates BMI and smoking status, the effects of these covariates were shown to be highly significant. Conclusions: In the present study we confirmed the good level of conformity between the distributions of observed and AMH-predicted ages at menopause, and showed that using BMI and smoking status as additional variables improves AMH-based prediction of age at menopause.

The relationship between anti-mullerian hormone in women receiving fertility assessments and age at menopause in subfertile women : evidence from large population studies

Context: Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) concentration reflects ovarian aging and is argued to be a useful predictor of age at menopause (AMP). It is hypothesized that AMH falling below a critical threshold corresponds to follicle depletion, which results in menopause. With this threshold, theoretical predictions of AMP can be made. Comparisons of such predictions with observed AMP from population studies support the role for AMH as a forecaster of menopause. Objective: The objective of the study was to investigate whether previous relationships between AMH and AMP are valid using a much larger data set. Setting: AMH was measured in 27 563 women attending fertility clinics. Study Design: From these data a model of age-related AMH change was constructed using a robust regression analysis. Data on AMP from subfertile women were obtained from the population-based Prospect-European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (Prospect- EPIC) cohort (n � 2249). By constructing a probability distribution of age at which AMH falls below a critical threshold and fitting this to Prospect-EPIC menopausal age data using maximum likelihood, such a threshold was estimated. Main Outcome: The main outcome was conformity between observed and predicted AMP. Results: To get a distribution of AMH-predicted AMP that fit the Prospect-EPIC data, we found the critical AMH threshold should vary among women in such a way that women with low age-specific AMH would have lower thresholds, whereas women with high age-specific AMH would have higher thresholds (mean 0.075 ng/mL; interquartile range 0.038–0.15 ng/mL). Such a varying AMH threshold for menopause is a novel and biologically plausible finding. AMH became undetectable (�0.2 ng/mL) approximately 5 years before the occurrence of menopause, in line with a previous report. Conclusions: The conformity of the observed and predicted distributions of AMP supports the hypothesis that declining population averages of AMH are associated with menopause, making AMH an excellent candidate biomarker for AMP prediction. Further research will help establish the accuracy of AMH levels to predict AMP within individuals.

Summarization of association rules in multi-tier granule mining

It is a big challenge to find useful associations in databases for user specific needs. The essential issue is how to provide efficient methods for describing meaningful associations and pruning false discoveries or meaningless ones. One major obstacle is the overwhelmingly large volume of discovered patterns. This paper discusses an alternative approach called multi-tier granule mining to improve frequent association mining. Rather than using patterns, it uses granules to represent knowledge implicitly contained in databases. It also uses multi-tier structures and association mappings to represent association rules in terms of granules. Consequently, association rules can be quickly accessed and meaningless association rules can be justified according to the association mappings. Moreover, the proposed structure is also an precise compression of patterns which can restore the original supports. The experimental results shows that the proposed approach is promising.

Predicting vitamin D deficiency in older Australian adults

OBJECTIVE There has been a dramatic increase in vitamin D testing in Australia in recent years, prompting calls for targeted testing. We sought to develop a model to identify people most at risk of vitamin D deficiency. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS This is a cross-sectional study of 644 60- to 84-year-old participants, 95% of whom were Caucasian, who took part in a pilot randomized controlled trial of vitamin D supplementation. MEASUREMENTS Baseline 25(OH)D was measured using the Diasorin Liaison platform. Vitamin D insufficiency and deficiency were defined using 50 and 25 nmol/l as cut-points, respectively. A questionnaire was used to obtain information on demographic characteristics and lifestyle factors. We used multivariate logistic regression to predict low vitamin D and calculated the net benefit of using the model compared with 'test-all' and 'test-none' strategies. RESULTS The mean serum 25(OH)D was 42 (SD 14) nmol/1. Seventy-five per cent of participants were vitamin D insufficient and 10% deficient. Serum 25(OH)D was positively correlated with time outdoors, physical activity, vitamin D intake and ambient UVR, and inversely correlated with age, BMI and poor self-reported health status. These predictors explained approximately 21% of the variance in serum 25(OH)D. The area under the ROC curve predicting vitamin D deficiency was 0·82. Net benefit for the prediction model was higher than that for the 'test-all' strategy at all probability thresholds and higher than the 'test-none' strategy for probabilities up to 60%. CONCLUSION Our model could predict vitamin D deficiency with reasonable accuracy, but it needs to be validated in other populations before being implemented.

Risk modelling in quality clinical registries : Monitoring lesion treatment failure rate in percutaneous coronary interventions

Aims: This paper describes the development of a risk adjustment (RA) model predictive of individual lesion treatment failure in percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) for use in a quality monitoring and improvement program. Methods and results: Prospectively collected data for 3972 consecutive revascularisation procedures (5601 lesions) performed between January 2003 and September 2011 were studied. Data on procedures to September 2009 (n = 3100) were used to identify factors predictive of lesion treatment failure. Factors identified included lesion risk class (p < 0.001), occlusion type (p < 0.001), patient age (p = 0.001), vessel system (p < 0.04), vessel diameter (p < 0.001), unstable angina (p = 0.003) and presence of major cardiac risk factors (p = 0.01). A Bayesian RA model was built using these factors with predictive performance of the model tested on the remaining procedures (area under the receiver operating curve: 0.765, Hosmer–Lemeshow p value: 0.11). Cumulative sum, exponentially weighted moving average and funnel plots were constructed using the RA model and subjectively evaluated. Conclusion: A RA model was developed and applied to SPC monitoring for lesion failure in a PCI database. If linked to appropriate quality improvement governance response protocols, SPC using this RA tool might improve quality control and risk management by identifying variation in performance based on a comparison of observed and expected outcomes.

Oropharyngeal dysphagia in an elderly post-operative hip fracture population : a prospective cohort study

Background: normal ageing processes impact on oropharyngeal swallowing function placing older adults at risk of developing oropharyngeal dysphagia (OD). Anecdotal clinical experience has observed that older patients recovering from hip fracture surgery commonly develop OD post-operatively. Objective: to document the presence of OD following hip fracture surgery, and the factors associated with OD. Methods: one hundred and eighty-one patients with a mean age of 83 years (range: 65–103) admitted to a specialised orthogeriatric unit were assessed for OD post-surgery for hip fracture. Pre-admission, intra-operative and post-operative factors were examined to determine their relationship with the presence of OD. Results: OD was found to be present post-operatively in 34% (n = 61) of the current population. Multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed the presence of pre-existing neurological and respiratory medical co-morbidities, presence of post-operative delirium, age and living in a residential aged care facility prior to hospital admission to be associated with the post-operative OD. Conclusion: these results highlight that OD is present in a large number of the older hip fracture population. Early identification of OD has important implications for the provision of timely dysphagia management that may prevent secondary complications and potentially reduce the hospital length of stay.

Suspected mechanisms in the cause of overuse running injuries : A clinical review

Context: Various epidemiological studies have estimated that up to 70% of runners sustain an overuse running injury each year. Although few overuse running injuries have an established cause, more than 80% of running-related injuries occur at or below the knee, which suggests that some common mechanisms may be at work. The question then becomes, are there common mechanisms related to overuse running injuries? Evidence Acquisition: Research studies were identified via the following electronic databases: MEDLINE, EMBASE PsycInfo, and CINAHL (1980–July 2008). Inclusion was based on evaluation of risk factors for overuse running injuries. Results: A majority of the risk factors that have been researched over the past few years can be generally categorized into 2 groups: atypical foot pronation mechanics and inadequate hip muscle stabilization. Conclusion: Based on the review of literature, there is no definitive link between atypical foot mechanics and running injury mechanisms. The lack of normative data and a definition of typical foot structure has hampered progress. In contrast, a large and growing body of literature suggests that weakness of hip-stabilizing muscles leads to atypical lower extremity mechanics and increased forces within the lower extremity while running.

Development of improved fire design rules for cold-formed steel wall systems

Traditionally the fire resistance rating of LSF wall systems is based on approximate prescriptive methods developed using limited fire tests. Therefore a detailed research study into the performance of load bearing LSF wall systems under standard fire conditions was undertaken to develop improved fire design rules. It used the extensive fire performance results of eight different LSF wall systems from a series of full scale fire tests and numerical studies for this purpose. The use of previous fire design rules developed for LSF walls subjected to non-uniform elevated temperature distributions based on AISI design manual and Eurocode3 Parts 1.2 and 1.3 was investigated first. New simplified fire design rules based on AS/NZS 4600, North American Specification and Eurocode 3 Part 1.3 were then proposed in this study with suitable allowances for the interaction effects of compression and bending actions. The importance of considering thermal bowing, magnified thermal bowing and neutral axis shift in the fire design was also investigated. A spread sheet based design tool was developed based on the new design rules to predict the failure load ratio versus time and temperature curves for varying LSF wall configurations. The accuracy of the proposed design rules was verified using the test and FEA results for different wall configurations, steel grades, thicknesses and load ratios. This paper presents the details and results of this study including the improved fire design rules for predicting the load capacity of LSF wall studs and the failure times of LSF walls under standard fire conditions.

Improved design rules for cold-formed steel columns

Current design rules for determining the member strength of cold-formed steel columns are based on the effective length of the member and a single column capacity curve for both pin-ended and fixed-ended columns. This research has reviewed the use of AS/NZS 4600 design rules for their accuracy in determining the member compression capacities of slender cold-formed steel columns using detailed numerical studies. It has shown that AS/NZS 4600 design rules accurately predicted the capacities of pinned and fixed ended columns undergoing flexural buckling. However, for fixed ended columns undergoing flexural-torsional buckling, it was found that current AS/NZS 4600 design rules did not include the beneficial effect of warping fixity. Therefore AS/NZS 4600 design rules were found to be excessively conservative and hence uneconomical in predicting the failure loads obtained from tests and finite element analyses of fixed-ended lipped channel columns. Based on this finding, suitable recommendations have been made to modify the current AS/NZS 4600 design rules to more accurately reflect the results obtained from the numerical and experimental studies conducted in this research. This paper presents the details of this research on cold-formed steel columns and the results.

Improved design rules for fixed ended cold-formed steel columns subject to flexural-torsional buckling

This paper has presented the details of an investigation into the flexural and flexuraltorsional buckling behaviour of cold-formed structural steel columns with pinned and fixed ends. Current design rules for the member capacities of cold-formed steel columns are based on the same non-dimensional strength curve for both fixed and pinned-ended columns. This research has reviewed the accuracy of the current design rules in AS/NZS 4600 and the North American Specification in determining the member capacities of cold-formed steel columns using the results from detailed finite element analyses and an experimental study of lipped channel columns. It was found that the current Australian and American design rules accurately predicted the member capacities of pin ended lipped channel columns undergoing flexural and flexural torsional buckling. However, for fixed ended columns with warping fixity undergoing flexural-torsional buckling, it was found that the current design rules significantly underestimated the column capacities as they disregard the beneficial effect of warping fixity. This paper has therefore proposed improved design rules and verified their accuracy using finite element analysis and test results of cold-formed lipped channel columns made of three cross-sections and five different steel grades and thicknesses.

Clinical data integration approach using SAS clinical data integration server (CDI) tools

The decisions people make about medical treatments have a great impact on their lives. Health care practitioners, providers and patients often make decisions about medical treatments without complete understanding of the circumstances. The main reason for this is that medical data are available in fragmented, disparate and heterogeneous data silos. Without a centralised data warehouse structure to integrate these data silos, it is highly unlikely and impractical for the users to get all the information required on time to make a correct decision. In this research paper, a clinical data integration approach using SAS Clinical Data Integration Server tools is presented.

A nurse-led model of oncogeriatric assessment

Background There is growing consensus that a multidisciplinary, comprehensive and standardised process for assessing the fitness of older patients for chemotherapy should be undertaken to determine appropriate cancer treatment. Aim This study tested a model of cancer care for the older patient incorporating Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA), which aimed to ensure that 'fit' individuals amenable to active treatment were accurately identified; 'vulnerable' patients more suitable for modified or supportive regimens were determined; and 'frail 'individuals who would benefit most from palliative regimens were also identified and offered the appropriate level of care. Methods A consecutive-series n=178 sample of patients >65 years was recruited from a major Australian cancer centre. The following instruments were administered by an oncogeriatric nurse prior to treatment: Vulnerable Elders Survey-13; Cumulative Illness Rating Scale (Geriatric); Malnutrition Screening Tool; Mini-mental State Examination; Geriatric Depression Scale; Barthel Index; and Lawton Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale. Scores from these instruments were aggregated to predict patient fitness, vulnerability or frailty for chemotherapy. Physicians provided a concurrent (blinded) prediction of patient fitness, vulnerability or frailty based on their clinical assessment. Data were also collected on actual patient outcomes (eg treatment completed as predicted, treatment reduced) during monthly audits of patient trajectories. Data analysis Data analysis is underway. A sample of 178 is adequate to detect, with 90% power, kappa coefficients of agreement between CGA and physician assessments of K>0.90 ("almost perfect agreement"). Primary endpoints comprise a) whether the nurse-led CGA determination of fit, vulnerable or frail agrees with the oncologist's assessments of fit, vulnerable or frail and b) whether the CGA and physician assessments accurately predict actual patient outcomes. Conclusion An oncogeriatric nurse-led model of care is currently being developed from the results. We conclude with a discussion of the pivotal role of nurses in CGA-based models of care.

Improved shear design rules for lipped channel beams with web openings

Cold-formed steel Lipped Channel Beams (LCB) with web openings are commonly used as floor joists and bearers in building structures. The shear behaviour of these beams is more complicated and their shear capacities are considerably reduced by the presence of web openings. However, limited research has been undertaken on the shear behaviour and strength of LCBs with web openings. Hence a detailed numerical study was undertaken to investigate the shear behaviour and strength of LCBs with web openings. Finite element models of simply supported LCBs under a mid-span load with aspect ratios of 1.0 and 1.5 were developed and validated by comparing their results with test results. They were then used in a detailed parametric study to investigate the effects of various influential parameters. Experimental and numerical results showed that the current design rules in cold-formed steel structures design codes are very conservative. Improved design equations were therefore proposed for the shear strength of LCBs with web openings based on both experimental and numerical results. This paper presents the details of finite element modelling of LCBs with web openings, validation of finite element models, and the development of improved shear design rules. The proposed shear design rules in this paper can be considered for inclusion in the future versions of cold-formed steel design codes.

Data warehousing model for integrating fragmented electronic health records from disparate and heterogeneous clinical data stores

This research was a step forward in developing a data integration framework for Electronic Health Records. The outcome of the research is a conceptual and logical Data Warehousing model for integrating Cardiac Surgery electronic data records. This thesis investigated the main obstacles for the healthcare data integration and proposes a data warehousing model suitable for integrating fragmented data in a Cardiac Surgery Unit.