Making the most of spatial information in health: A tutorial in Bayesian disease mapping for areal data

Disease maps are effective tools for explaining and predicting patterns of disease outcomes across geographical space, identifying areas of potentially elevated risk, and formulating and validating aetiological hypotheses for a disease. Bayesian models have become a standard approach to disease mapping in recent decades. This article aims to provide a basic understanding of the key concepts involved in Bayesian disease mapping methods for areal data. It is anticipated that this will help in interpretation of published maps, and provide a useful starting point for anyone interested in running disease mapping methods for areal data. The article provides detailed motivation and descriptions on disease mapping methods by explaining the concepts, defining the technical terms, and illustrating the utility of disease mapping for epidemiological research by demonstrating various ways of visualising model outputs using a case study. The target audience includes spatial scientists in health and other fields, policy or decision makers, health geographers, spatial analysts, public health professionals, and epidemiologists.

Mixed reality stories: How creative writers integrate virtual and physical realities

Mixed reality stories (MRS) unfold simultaneously in the physical and the virtual world. Advancements in digital technologies, which are now able to capture more contextual information about our physical environments, are enabling novel ways of blending the two worlds. To explore the process of creating stories from this perspective, we conducted a study with creative writers, in which we asked them to write a MRS script for outdoor running. While we saw instances of intentional connections between physical and virtual worlds in their work, we also observed the use of ambiguity or even deliberate contradiction with available contextual information. In this paper we discuss how these approaches can be beneficial for MRS and propose directions for future work.

Being chased by zombies!: Understanding the experience of mixed reality quests

Both researchers and practitioners show increasing interest in exploring mixed reality games: games, where physical environments blend together with digital technologies. In this paper we have extended earlier work by bringing attention to the role of narrative in mixed reality games. For our case study we chose a mobile phone application Zombies Run!, which is designed to support actual running. This application contains a fictional story about a zombie apocalypse and provides runners with various quests (in the form of missions) to complete during their run. We investigated different aspects of participants' experience with the application and how it changed their running. Our findings show how the app changed running in three major ways. Firstly, it changed the way runs were organised. Secondly, it shook up established running routines. And lastly, it shaped the meanings associated with running.

Uncertainty based online planning for UAV target finding in cluttered and GPS-denied environments

There are some scenarios in which Unmmaned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) navigation becomes a challenge due to the occlusion of GPS systems signal, the presence of obstacles and constraints in the space in which a UAV operates. An additional challenge is presented when a target whose location is unknown must be found within a confined space. In this paper we present a UAV navigation and target finding mission, modelled as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) using a state-of-the-art online solver in a real scenario using a low cost commercial multi rotor UAV and a modular system architecture running under the Robotic Operative System (ROS). Using POMDP has several advantages to conventional approaches as they take into account uncertainties in sensor information. We present a framework for testing the mission with simulation tests and real flight tests in which we model the system dynamics and motion and perception uncertainties. The system uses a quad-copter aircraft with an board downwards looking camera without the need of GPS systems while avoiding obstacles within a confined area. Results indicate that the system has 100% success rate in simulation and 80% rate during flight test for finding targets located at different locations.

Lower limb biomechanical characteristics of patients with neuropathic diabetic foot ulcers: The diabetes foot ulcer study protocol

Background Foot ulceration is the main precursor to lower limb amputation in patients with type 2 diabetes worldwide. Biomechanical factors have been implicated in the development of foot ulceration; however the association of these factors to ulcer healing remains less clear. It may be hypothesised that abnormalities in temporal spatial parameters (stride to stride measurements), kinematics (joint movements), kinetics (forces on the lower limb) and plantar pressures (pressure placed on the foot during walking) contribute to foot ulcer healing. The primary aim of this study is to establish the biomechanical characteristics (temporal spatial parameters, kinematics, kinetics and plantar pressures) of patients with plantar neuropathic foot ulcers compared to controls without a history of foot ulcers. The secondary aim is to assess the same biomechanical characteristics in patients with foot ulcers and controls over-time to assess whether these characteristics remain the same or change throughout ulcer healing. Methods/Design The design is a case–control study nested in a six-month longitudinal study. Cases will be participants with active plantar neuropathic foot ulcers (DFU group). Controls will consist of patients with type 2 diabetes (DMC group) and healthy participants (HC group) with no history of foot ulceration. Standardised gait and plantar pressure protocols will be used to collect biomechanical data at baseline, three and six months. Descriptive variables and primary and secondary outcome variables will be compared between the three groups at baseline and follow-up. Discussion It is anticipated that the findings from this longitudinal study will provide important information regarding the biomechanical characteristic of type 2 diabetes patients with neuropathic foot ulcers. We hypothesise that people with foot ulcers will demonstrate a significantly compromised gait pattern (reduced temporal spatial parameters, kinematics and kinetics) at base line and then throughout the follow-up period compared to controls. The study may provide evidence for the design of gait-retraining, neuro-muscular conditioning and other approaches to off-load the limbs of those with foot ulcers in order to reduce the mechanical loading on the foot during gait and promote ulcer healing.

Tribological properties of γ-Y2Si2O7 ceramic against AISI 52100 steel and Si3N4 ceramic counterparts

Reciprocating ball-on-flat dry sliding friction and wear experiments have been conducted on singlephase γ-Y2Si2O7 ceramic flats in contact with AISI 52100 bearing steel and Si3N4 ceramic balls at 5-15N normal loads in an ambient environment. The kinetic friction coefficients of γ-Y2Si2O7 varied in the range over 0.53-0.63 against AISI 52100 steel and between 0.51-0.56 against Si3N4 ceramic. We found thatwear occurred predominantly during the running-in period and it almost ceased at the steady friction stage. The wear rates of γ-Y2Si2O7 were in the order of 10-4mm3/(N m). Besides, wear debris strongly influenced the friction and wear processes. The strong chemical affinity between γ-Y2Si2O7 and AISI 52100 balls led to a thick transfer layer formed on both contact surfaces of the flat and counterpart ball, which changed the direct sliding between the ball and the flat into a shearing within the transfer layer. For the γ-Y2Si2O7/Si3N4 pair, a thin silica hydrate lubricant tribofilm presented above the compressed debris entrapped in the worn track and contact ball surface. This transfer layer and the tribofilm separated the sliding couple from direct contact and contributed to the low friction coefficient and wear rate.

Governing child care in neoliberal times: Discursive constructions of children as economic units and early childhood educators as investment brokers

At any given time in the field of early childhood, there are discourses at play, producing images of children, and these ways of seeing children might be competing, colliding and/or complementing each other. It is fairly widely accepted that in many countries there are versions of dominant discourses that shape and are shaped by current practices in the field of early childhood. These include (1) romantic notions of children running free and connecting with nature and (2) the ‘Bart Simpson’ version of the naughty, cute or savage child, untamed and in need of civilising. These are far from being the only two discursive constructions of children present in current policies and practices. If early childhood professionals are to be active in shaping and implementing policies that affect their work and workforce, it is important that they are aware of the forces at play. In this article, we point to another powerful discourse at play in the Australian context of early childhood education, the image of children as economic units: investments in the future. We show how a ‘moment of arising’ in contemporary policy contexts, dominated by neoliberal principles of reform and competition, has charged early childhood educators in Australia with the duties of a ‘broker’, ensuring that young children are worth the investment. In this article, we begin with (1) a key policy document in early childhood education in Australia and examine the discursive affordances which shape the document. Next, (2) we pinpoint the shifts in how the work of child care is perceived by interrogating this key policy document through a methodology of discursive analysis. We then turn attention (3) to the work of this policy document along with other discourses which directly affect images of children and the shaping role these have on the work of educators. We conclude with (4) a consideration of how the work of early childhood professionals has come to be shaped by this economic discourse, and how they are being required to both work within the policy imperatives and likely to resist this new demand of them.

Lateral impact derailment mechanisms, simulation and analysis

Lateral collisions between heavy road vehicles and passenger trains at level crossings and the associated derailments are serious safety issues. This paper presents a detailed investigation of the dynamic responses and derailment mechanisms of trains under lateral impact using a multi-body dynamics simulation method. Formulation of a three-dimensional dynamic model of a passenger train running on a ballasted track subject to lateral impact caused by a road truck is presented. This model is shown to predict derailment due to wheel climb and car body overturning mechanisms through numerical examples. Sensitivities of the truck speed and mass, wheel/rail friction and the train suspension to the lateral stability and derailment of the train are reported. It is shown that improvements to the design of train suspensions, including secondary and inter-vehicle lateral dampers have higher potential to mitigate the severity of the collision-induced derailments.

System-level analysis of network interfaces for hierarchical MPSoCs

Network Interfaces (NIs) are used in Multiprocessor System-on-Chips (MPSoCs) to connect CPUs to a packet switched Network-on-Chip. In this work we introduce a new NI architecture for our hierarchical CoreVA-MPSoC. The CoreVA-MPSoC targets streaming applications in embedded systems. The main contribution of this paper is a system-level analysis of different NI configurations, considering both software and hardware costs for NoC communication. Different configurations of the NI are compared using a benchmark suite of 10 streaming applications. The best performing NI configuration shows an average speedup of 20 for a CoreVA-MPSoC with 32 CPUs compared to a single CPU. Furthermore, we present physical implementation results using a 28 nm FD-SOI standard cell technology. A hierarchical MPSoC with 8 CPU clusters and 4 CPUs in each cluster running at 800MHz requires an area of 4.56mm2.

Bayesian estimation of small effects in exercise and sports science

The aim of this paper is to provide a Bayesian formulation of the so-called magnitude-based inference approach to quantifying and interpreting effects, and in a case study example provide accurate probabilistic statements that correspond to the intended magnitude-based inferences. The model is described in the context of a published small-scale athlete study which employed a magnitude-based inference approach to compare the effect of two altitude training regimens (live high-train low (LHTL), and intermittent hypoxic exposure (IHE)) on running performance and blood measurements of elite triathletes. The posterior distributions, and corresponding point and interval estimates, for the parameters and associated effects and comparisons of interest, were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The Bayesian analysis was shown to provide more direct probabilistic comparisons of treatments and able to identify small effects of interest. The approach avoided asymptotic assumptions and overcame issues such as multiple testing. Bayesian analysis of unscaled effects showed a probability of 0.96 that LHTL yields a substantially greater increase in hemoglobin mass than IHE, a 0.93 probability of a substantially greater improvement in running economy and a greater than 0.96 probability that both IHE and LHTL yield a substantially greater improvement in maximum blood lactate concentration compared to a Placebo. The conclusions are consistent with those obtained using a ‘magnitude-based inference’ approach that has been promoted in the field. The paper demonstrates that a fully Bayesian analysis is a simple and effective way of analysing small effects, providing a rich set of results that are straightforward to interpret in terms of probabilistic statements.

The efficiency of bounding vampires

Vampire bats, Desmodus rotundus, must maximize their feeding cycle of one blood meal per day by being efficient in the stalking and acquisition of their food. Riskin and Hermanson documented the running gait of the common vampire bat and observed they were efficient at running speeds, using longer stride lengths and thus decreased stride frequency. We obtained preliminary data on gait maintained for up to 10 minutes on a moving treadmill belt at speeds ranging from 0.23 to 0.74 m/s, which spanned a range from walking to running gaits. Bats tended to transition between gaits at about 0.40 m/s. Fourteen bats were studied and included four that were able to walk or run for 10 minutes. There was no significant change in either stride duration or frequency associated with an increase in speed. We estimated O2 consumption and CO2 production both before and 5 minutes after exercise, and found that O2 consumption increased 1 minute and 5 minutes after exercise. CO2 levels increased significantly 1 minute after exercise, but tended back towards pre-exercise level 5 minutes after exercise. Two bats were tested for blood O2, CO2 and pH levels. Interestingly, pH levels fell from 7.3 to about 7.0, indicating lactate accumulation.

Minimising lateral impact derailment potential at level crossings through guard rails

Derailments due to lateral collisions between heavy road vehicles and passenger trains at level crossings (LCs) are serious safety issues. A variety of countermeasures in terms of traffic laws, communication technology and warning devices are used for minimising LC accidents; however, innovative civil infrastructure solution is rare. This paper presents a study of the efficacy of guard rail system (GRS) to minimise the derailment potential of trains laterally collided by heavy road vehicles at LCs. For this purpose, a three-dimensional dynamic model of a passenger train running on a ballasted track fitted with guard rail subject to lateral impact caused by a road truck is formulated. This model is capable of predicting the lateral collision-induced derailments with and without GRS. Based on dynamic simulations, derailment prevention mechanism of the GRS is illustrated. Sensitivities of key parameters of the GRS, such as the flange way width, the installation height and contact friction, to the efficacy of GRS are reported. It is shown that guard rails can enhance derailment safety against lateral impacts at LCs.