Sampling designs on stream networks using the pseudo-Bayesian approach

Monitoring stream networks through time provides important ecological information. The sampling design problem is to choose locations where measurements are taken so as to maximise information gathered about physicochemical and biological variables on the stream network. This paper uses a pseudo-Bayesian approach, averaging a utility function over a prior distribution, in finding a design which maximizes the average utility. We use models for correlations of observations on the stream network that are based on stream network distances and described by moving average error models. Utility functions used reflect the needs of the experimenter, such as prediction of location values or estimation of parameters. We propose an algorithmic approach to design with the mean utility of a design estimated using Monte Carlo techniques and an exchange algorithm to search for optimal sampling designs. In particular we focus on the problem of finding an optimal design from a set of fixed designs and finding an optimal subset of a given set of sampling locations. As there are many different variables to measure, such as chemical, physical and biological measurements at each location, designs are derived from models based on different types of response variables: continuous, counts and proportions. We apply the methodology to a synthetic example and the Lake Eacham stream network on the Atherton Tablelands in Queensland, Australia. We show that the optimal designs depend very much on the choice of utility function, varying from space filling to clustered designs and mixtures of these, but given the utility function, designs are relatively robust to the type of response variable.

Traffic state estimation from partial Bluetooth and volume observations : case study in the Brisbane metropolitan area

The application of the Bluetooth (BT) technology to transportation has been enabling researchers to make accurate travel time observations, in freeway and arterial roads. The Bluetooth traffic data are generally incomplete, for they only relate to those vehicles that are equipped with Bluetooth devices, and that are detected by the Bluetooth sensors of the road network. The fraction of detected vehicles versus the total number of transiting vehicles is often referred to as Bluetooth Penetration Rate (BTPR). The aim of this study is to precisely define the spatio-temporal relationship between the quantities that become available through the partial, noisy BT observations; and the hidden variables that describe the actual dynamics of vehicular traffic. To do so, we propose to incorporate a multi- class traffic model into a Sequential Montecarlo Estimation algorithm. Our framework has been applied for the empirical travel time investigations into the Brisbane Metropolitan region.

Bayesian inference of traffic volumes based on Bluetooth data

The study of the relationship between macroscopic traffic parameters, such as flow, speed and travel time, is essential to the understanding of the behaviour of freeway and arterial roads. However, the temporal dynamics of these parameters are difficult to model, especially for arterial roads, where the process of traffic change is driven by a variety of variables. The introduction of the Bluetooth technology into the transportation area has proven exceptionally useful for monitoring vehicular traffic, as it allows reliable estimation of travel times and traffic demands. In this work, we propose an approach based on Bayesian networks for analyzing and predicting the complex dynamics of flow or volume, based on travel time observations from Bluetooth sensors. The spatio-temporal relationship between volume and travel time is captured through a first-order transition model, and a univariate Gaussian sensor model. The two models are trained and tested on travel time and volume data, from an arterial link, collected over a period of six days. To reduce the computational costs of the inference tasks, volume is converted into a discrete variable. The discretization process is carried out through a Self-Organizing Map. Preliminary results show that a simple Bayesian network can effectively estimate and predict the complex temporal dynamics of arterial volumes from the travel time data. Not only is the model well suited to produce posterior distributions over single past, current and future states; but it also allows computing the estimations of joint distributions, over sequences of states. Furthermore, the Bayesian network can achieve excellent prediction, even when the stream of travel time observation is partially incomplete.

A reference station-based GNSS computing mode to support unified precise point positioning and real-time kinematic services

Currently, the GNSS computing modes are of two classes: network-based data processing and user receiver-based processing. A GNSS reference receiver station essentially contributes raw measurement data in either the RINEX file format or as real-time data streams in the RTCM format. Very little computation is carried out by the reference station. The existing network-based processing modes, regardless of whether they are executed in real-time or post-processed modes, are centralised or sequential. This paper describes a distributed GNSS computing framework that incorporates three GNSS modes: reference station-based, user receiver-based and network-based data processing. Raw data streams from each GNSS reference receiver station are processed in a distributed manner, i.e., either at the station itself or at a hosting data server/processor, to generate station-based solutions, or reference receiver-specific parameters. These may include precise receiver clock, zenith tropospheric delay, differential code biases, ambiguity parameters, ionospheric delays, as well as line-of-sight information such as azimuth and elevation angles. Covariance information for estimated parameters may also be optionally provided. In such a mode the nearby precise point positioning (PPP) or real-time kinematic (RTK) users can directly use the corrections from all or some of the stations for real-time precise positioning via a data server. At the user receiver, PPP and RTK techniques are unified under the same observation models, and the distinction is how the user receiver software deals with corrections from the reference station solutions and the ambiguity estimation in the observation equations. Numerical tests demonstrate good convergence behaviour for differential code bias and ambiguity estimates derived individually with single reference stations. With station-based solutions from three reference stations within distances of 22–103 km the user receiver positioning results, with various schemes, show an accuracy improvement of the proposed station-augmented PPP and ambiguity-fixed PPP solutions with respect to the standard float PPP solutions without station augmentation and ambiguity resolutions. Overall, the proposed reference station-based GNSS computing mode can support PPP and RTK positioning services as a simpler alternative to the existing network-based RTK or regionally augmented PPP systems.

Student focus and prioritization of design parameters in first-year engineering design projects

BACKGROUND Research on engineering design is a core area of concern within engineering education and a fundamental understanding of how engineering students approach and undertake design is necessary in order to develop effective design models and pedagogies. Understanding the factors related to design experiences in education and how they affect student practice can help educators as well as designers to leverage these factors as part of the design process. PURPOSE This study investigated the design practices of first-year engineering students’ and their experiences with a first-year engineering course design project. The research questions that guided the investigation were: 1. From a student perspective, what design parameters or criteria are most important? 2. How does this perspective impact subsequent student design practice throughout the design process? DESIGN/METHOD The authors employed qualitative multi-case study methods (Miles & Huberman, 1994) in order to the answer the research questions. Participant teams were observed and video recorded during team design meetings in which they researched the background for the design problem, brainstormed and sketched possible solutions, as well as built prototypes and final models of their design solutions as part of a course design project. Analysis focused on explanation building (Yin, 2009) and utilized within-case and cross-case analysis (Miles & Huberman, 1994). RESULTS We found that students focused disproportionally on the functional parameter, i.e. the physical implementation of their solution, and the possible/applicable parameter, i.e. a possible and applicable solution that benefited the user, in comparison to other given parameters such as safety and innovativeness. In addition, we found that individual teams focused on the functional and possible/ applicable parameters in early design phases such as brainstorming/ ideation and sketching. When prompted to discuss these non-salient parameters (from the student perspective) in the final design report, student design teams often used a post-hoc justification to support how the final designs fit the parameters that they did not initially consider. CONCLUSIONS This study suggests is that student design teams become fixated on (and consequently prioritize) certain parameters they interpret as important because they feel these parameters were described more explicitly in terms how they were met and assessed. Students fail to consider other parameters, perceived to be less directly assessable, unless prompted to do so. Failure to consider other parameters in the early design phases subsequently affects their approach in design phases as well. Case studies examining students’ study strategies within three Australian Universities illustrate similarities with some student approaches to design.

Hybrid model for motorway travel time estimation considering increased detector spacing

Travel time estimation and prediction on motorways has long been a topic of research. Prediction modeling generally assumes that the estimation is perfect. No matter how good is the prediction modeling- the errors in estimation can significantly deteriorate the accuracy and reliability of the prediction. Models have been proposed to estimate travel time from loop detector data. Generally, detectors are closely spaced (say 500m) and travel time can be estimated accurately. However, detectors are not always perfect, and even during normal running conditions few detectors malfunction, resulting in increase in the spacing between the functional detectors. Under such conditions, error in the travel time estimation is significantly large and generally unacceptable. This research evaluates the in-practice travel time estimation model during different traffic conditions. It is observed that the existing models fail to accurately estimate travel time during large detector spacing and congestion shoulder periods. Addressing this issue, an innovative Hybrid model that only considers loop data for travel time estimation is proposed. The model is tested using simulation and is validated with real Bluetooth data from Pacific Motorway Brisbane. Results indicate that during non free flow conditions and larger detector spacing Hybrid model provides significant improvement in the accuracy of travel time estimation.

Traversability estimation for a planetary rover via experimental kernel learning in a Gaussian process framework

A critical requirement for safe autonomous navigation of a planetary rover is the ability to accurately estimate the traversability of the terrain. This work considers the problem of predicting the attitude and configuration angles of the platform from terrain representations that are often incomplete due to occlusions and sensor limitations. Using Gaussian Processes (GP) and exteroceptive data as training input, we can provide a continuous and complete representation of terrain traversability, with uncertainty in the output estimates. In this paper, we propose a novel method that focuses on exploiting the explicit correlation in vehicle attitude and configuration during operation by learning a kernel function from vehicle experience to perform GP regression. We provide an extensive experimental validation of the proposed method on a planetary rover. We show significant improvement in the accuracy of our estimation compared with results obtained using standard kernels (Squared Exponential and Neural Network), and compared to traversability estimation made over terrain models built using state-of-the-art GP techniques.

Development and validation of anthropometric prediction equations for estimation of body fat in Indonesian men

Body composition of 292 males aged between 18 and 65 years was measured using the deuterium oxide dilution technique. Participants were divided into development (n=146) and cross-validation (n=146) groups. Stature, body weight, skinfold thickness at eight sites, girth at five sites, and bone breadth at four sites were measured and body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-stature ratio (WSR) calculated. Equations were developed using multiple regression analyses with skinfolds, breadth and girth measures, BMI, and other indices as independent variables and percentage body fat (%BF) determined from deuterium dilution technique as the reference. All equations were then tested in the cross-validation group. Results from the reference method were also compared with existing prediction equations by Durnin and Womersley (1974), Davidson et al (2011), and Gurrici et al (1998). The proposed prediction equations were valid in our cross-validation samples with r=0.77- 0.86, bias 0.2-0.5%, and pure error 2.8-3.6%. The strongest was generated from skinfolds with r=0.83, SEE 3.7%, and AIC 377.2. The Durnin and Womersley (1974) and Davidson et al (2011) equations significantly (p<0.001) underestimated %BF by 1.0 and 6.9% respectively, whereas the Gurrici et al (1998) equation significantly (p<0.001) overestimated %BF by 3.3% in our cross-validation samples compared to the reference. Results suggest that the proposed prediction equations are useful in the estimation of %BF in Indonesian men.

Estimation of vibration amplitude in Fourier domain optical coherence tomography interferometric signals from Doppler spectrum

In presented method combination of Fourier and Time domain detection enables to broaden the effective bandwidth for time dependent Doppler Signal that allows for using higher-order Bessel functions to calculate unambiguously the vibration amplitudes.

Sectional analysis of the pollutant wash-off process based on runoff hydrograph

The validity of using rainfall characteristics as lumped parameters for investigating the pollutant wash-off process such as first flush occurrence is questionable. This research study introduces an innovative concept of using sector parameters to investigate the relationship between the pollutant wash-off process and different sectors of the runoff hydrograph and rainfall hyetograph. The research outcomes indicated that rainfall depth and rainfall intensity are two key rainfall characteristics which influence the wash-off process compared to the antecedent dry period. Additionally, the rainfall pattern also plays a critical role in the wash-off process and is independent of the catchment characteristics. The knowledge created through this research study provides the ability to select appropriate rainfall events for stormwater quality treatment design based on the required treatment outcomes such as the need to target different sectors of the runoff hydrograph or pollutant species. The study outcomes can also contribute to enhancing stormwater quality modelling and prediction in view of the fact that conventional approaches to stormwater quality estimation is primarily based on rainfall intensity rather than considering other rainfall parameters or solely based on stochastic approaches irrespective of the characteristics of the rainfall event.

State Estimation in Smart Power Grids

In this chapter, the role of State Estimation (SE) in smart power grids is presented. The trend of SE error with respect to the increasing of the smart grids implementation investigated. The observability analysis as a prior task of SE is demonstrated and an analytical method to consider the impedance values of the branches is developed and discussed by examples. Since most principles of smart power grids are appropriate to distribution networks, the Distribution SE (DSE)considering load correlation is argued and illustrated by an example. The main features of smart grid SE, which is here named as “Smart Distributed SE” (SDSE), are discussed. Some characteristics of proposed SDES are distributed, hybrid, multi-micro grid and islanding support, Harmonic State Estimation (HSE), observability analysis and restore, error processing, and network parameter estimation. Distribution HSE (DHSE) and meter placement for SDSE are also presented.

Simultaneous estimation of hunting pressure, harvest and hunter success rates using WinBUGS

The use of hierarchical Bayesian spatial models in the analysis of ecological data is increasingly prevalent. The implementation of these models has been heretofore limited to specifically written software that required extensive programming knowledge to create. The advent of WinBUGS provides access to Bayesian hierarchical models for those without the programming expertise to create their own models and allows for the more rapid implementation of new models and data analysis. This facility is demonstrated here using data collected by the Missouri Department of Conservation for the Missouri Turkey Hunting Survey of 1996. Three models are considered, the first uses the collected data to estimate the success rate for individual hunters at the county level and incorporates a conditional autoregressive (CAR) spatial effect. The second model builds upon the first by simultaneously estimating the success rate and harvest at the county level, while the third estimates the success rate and hunting pressure at the county level. These models are discussed in detail as well as their implementation in WinBUGS and the issues arising therein. Future areas of application for WinBUGS and the latest developments in WinBUGS are discussed as well.

Distribution state estimation based on particle swarm and doubly loop mutant optimization (DLM-PSO)

This paper presents a novel algorithm based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) to estimate the states of electric distribution networks. In order to improve the performance, accuracy, convergence speed, and eliminate the stagnation effect of original PSO, a secondary PSO loop and mutation algorithm as well as stretching function is proposed. For accounting uncertainties of loads in distribution networks, pseudo-measurements is modeled as loads with the realistic errors. Simulation results on 6-bus radial and 34-bus IEEE test distribution networks show that the distribution state estimation based on proposed DLM-PSO presents lower estimation error and standard deviation in comparison with algorithms such as WLS, GA, HBMO, and original PSO.

The influence of Monte Carlo source parameters on detector design and dose perturbation in small field dosimetry

To obtain accurate Monte Carlo simulations of small radiation fields, it is important model the initial source parameters (electron energy and spot size) accurately. However recent studies have shown that small field dosimetry correction factors are insensitive to these parameters. The aim of this work is to extend this concept to test if these parameters affect dose perturbations in general, which is important for detector design and calculating perturbation correction factors. The EGSnrc C++ user code cavity was used for all simulations. Varying amounts of air between 0 and 2 mm were deliberately introduced upstream to a diode and the dose perturbation caused by the air was quantified. These simulations were then repeated using a range of initial electron energies (5.5 to 7.0 MeV) and electron spot sizes (0.7 to 2.2 FWHM). The resultant dose perturbations were large. For example 2 mm of air caused a dose reduction of up to 31% when simulated with a 6 mm field size. However these values did not vary by more than 2 % when simulated across the full range of source parameters tested. If a detector is modified by the introduction of air, one can be confident that the response of the detector will be the same across all similar linear accelerators and the Monte Carlo modelling of each machine is not required.

Urban traffic state estimation: Fusing point and zone based data

Loop detectors are the oldest and widely used traffic data source. On urban arterials, they are mainly installed for signal control. Recently state of the art Bluetooth MAC Scanners (BMS) has significantly captured the interest of stakeholders for exploiting it for area wide traffic monitoring. Loop detectors provide flow- a fundamental traffic parameter; whereas BMS provides individual vehicle travel time between BMS stations. Hence, these two data sources complement each other, and if integrated should increase the accuracy and reliability of the traffic state estimation. This paper proposed a model that integrates loops and BMS data for seamless travel time and density estimation for urban signalised network. The proposed model is validated using both real and simulated data and the results indicate that the accuracy of the proposed model is over 90%.